The "Theo Epstein" is apparently Daryl Morey, who teaches a class at MIT, used to work on Wall Street and works as a stats/operations/information guy for the Celtics front office.

A bright fellow named John Quincy at the APBRmetric board dug up some more on Morey, including this blog post briefly annotating a speech Morey gave at MIT in April 2005. I can't seem to run down a transcript of said presentation, but we'll take the blogger's word that Morey talked about the four factors.

It's also worth noting that a Google cache of Celtics.com's "Inside the Numbers" series of articles on basketball analytics lists Morey and Mike Zarren as authors. (The current incarnation of "Inside the Numbers" lists only Zarren and has only three articles, the most recent one being a solid primer of offensive efficiency. Zarren is listed as Boston's "Basketball Operations Analyst, responsible for assisting team decision-making via quantitative analysis." (Thanks to Google, I've also gathered that Zarren is a 2004 Harvard Law graduate and a former editor-in-chief of the school's Journal of Law and Technology.)

Morey's best article on Celtics.com may be this piece on beating opponents by increasing your number of shot attempts. It's interesting because the pendulum in the statsworld seems to have swung towards efficiency as the biggest pillar, when offensive rebounding and limiting turnovers combined are almost as important as shooting percentage. (I'm way guilty of this, by valuing Kevin Martin true shooting percentage way more than Kenny Thomas's offensive rebounding percentage.)

Morey also has a questionable stats-related article in the cache as well, one that argues that because Al Jefferson got a lot of minutes in his age-20 season, and because most players who got a lot of minutes in their age-20 seasons turned out to be stars or solid starters, Al Jefferson is therefore destined to be a star or solid starter. That argument is pretty faulty for fairly obvious reasons - you can't just take a youngster, give him minutes and watch his blossom. It's at best a baby block in the work towards serious prospect analysis.

Regardless, getting someone who understands the growing statistical revolution budding in basketball into a GM chair is huge. It's really another domino: first, it was Dean Oliver coming into the Seattle Sonics organization. Now, it's Daryl Morey getting the reins (though not until the 2007 offseason). It's getting much better.

Thought I’d throw up a special weekend column, since I’m not sure I’ll have one for tomorrow since it’s a holiday and all. Before we get into the situations to pay attention to, I thought we should check in on some of the centers who recently won starting jobs and were popular pick ups over the past couple weeks. I expressed skepticism about all of them for various reasons, and for the most part it looks like it was pretty well-founded.

Francisco Elson: 7.8/6.7/0.6, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 55% (31-of-56), 28.9 mpg in 9 starts

Ike Diogu: 9.4/4.5/0.9, 0.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 62% (28-of-45), 24.1 mpg in 8 starts

Eddie Griffin: 6.6/6.0/0.7, 0.4 steals, 2.6 blocks, 0.3 3s, 43% (24-of-56), 22.4 mpg in 9 starts

I know that centers are tough to come by in deep, two-center leagues, but there’s still just not a lot of value up there. Elson is the only one getting acceptable minutes, but even his 29 per game might be considered a disappointment considering that not just Marcus Camby, but also Kenyon Martin, has been out for the majority of those nine games. He’s doing about what I expected him to do – basically a Rasho Nesterovic impersonation – and while he’s not been an embarrassment, those who were hoping for 12 and 8 with close to 2 blocks per game just had unreasonable expectations. Diogu has proven to be a stud in FG%, but if he can’t be on the court enough to take even 6 shots per game, he won’t be able to help you all that much. He’s nowhere close to an asset in any other category. As for Griffin, have more typestrokes been unnecessarily wasted on a single player?

Three Situations to Pay Attention To
Los Angeles Lakers
After just writing about how much space has been wasted writing about Eddie Griffin, it seems pretty silly to follow that up by writing about Kwame Brown. As much as we want to call Griffin a disappointment and a tease, it doesn’t even begin to compare to Kwame. But there seems to be a recent shift in Kwame’s game and might be making him a more reliable – if one-dimensional – fantasy option. In his fifth season in the league, Kwame has shown an extremely limited offensive game. His touch around the basket hasn’t developed at all, and while his jumper looks decent at times, he’s never been able to hit it with any consistency. Phil Jackson seems to have realized that – and maybe Kwame has as well – and isn’t asking Kwame to score. Last night’s 18-point “breakout” game was the first time since Nov. 14 that Kwame attempted 10 shots in a game. He’s been recast as someone who’s main duty is to attack the boards, especially on the offensive end. Brown averaged 1.9 offensive boards per game in November, 2.5 per game in December, and is up to 3.3 per game so far in January. The fact that many of his shots are coming off these offensive rebounds is helping his FG%. In six games since re-entering the starting lineup, he’s shooting 54%. Here’s his overall line in those six starts:

8.8/8.2/1.0, 0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 54% (21-of-39)

It’s pretty comparable to most of those “hot” pickups listed above, but without that secondary category to help out in. Although Brown has no steals in those six games, that’s the one category he’s most likely to offer some help in. He averaged nearly a steal per game while seeing 30 mpg in 03-04, which is pretty decent for a big man. If he remains in the starting lineup he could average somewhere around 0.8 steals and blocks per game, which isn’t spectacular, but isn’t terrible. Expecting any consistency from Kwame is probably pretty foolish at this point. A game like last night’s is still the exception, not the rule. But if he can keep pounding the boards and converting some of those putbacks, he might be able to emerge as something better than just another Reggie Evans.

Indiana Pacers
Let’s take a look at Jeff Foster’s line so far in January:

7.3/9.4/0, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 61% (22-of-36)

Again, not too different from the lines of those Elson/Diogu/Griffin group. Foster is quite similar – and the exact opposite – of Kwame Brown. Like Brown, he seems to be a one-category helper who is pretty consistent in that one category, but doesn’t have much of a shot of helping out elsewhere. Unlike Kwame, Foster seems to be getting the most out of his talent while Brown is getting only a portion. Foster’s upside is extremely limited – he will not score, he will not get blocks. But if you want a boost in rebounds – and only rebounds – he is probably one of the best guys you can grab. I’m not at all a fan of one category specialists because they leave you with holes in too many other categories, but situations get dicey sometimes, especially at center. I thought I was in the perfect situation earlier this year with Yao Ming and Rasheed Wallace, with a very capable backup on the bench in Brendan Haywood. Then Yao went down and Haywood became completely ineffective right around the same time. I ended up dumping Haywood, because he just wasn’t worth using. Since I’m in a daily changes, cumulative roto league, I decided to simply take the beating at center and go way under my projected games limit rather than try my luck with the dregs available on the waiver wire. My strategy is to use quality games when you have them. Right now I have a lot of point guards playing well, so I’ll go over the projected pace there and make a trade from there at a later date, even if it means not getting the best return. But in weekly H2H leagues, this strategy doesn’t work. So guys like Foster might be the best option available. And if you’re strong in blocks thanks to non-centers like Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion or Paul Gasol, Foster can at least give you the boards you need from a center. He’s averaging 9.9 rpg in his last seven contests, and that’s in just 24.4 mpg. With Jermaine O’Neal iffy, he might see even more time. Foster’s no savior, but at least you know what you’ll be getting.

Dallas Mavericks
Did someone in your league pick up DeSagana Diop yesterday? It happened in my league, and I’ll admit I was about to make the move myself and was beaten to the punch by about five minutes. I’m not going to lose too much sleep over it, but man, I sure could have used that help in blocks. There’s no denying that Diop is a blocks machine – he’s second in the league blocks per minute, averaging 2.0 bpg in just over 17 minutes, which is rather ridiculous. But the big question is this – even with his ascent to the starting lineup, how much more playing time will Diop actually receive? In last night’s game he saw just 20 minutes, although it’s hard to read too much into that since the game was over early and Adrian Griffin was the only player in the game to play more than 30 minutes. One of the many problems with Diop early in his career was his total lack of conditioning, and while he’s gotten better, it’s hard for someone to start consistently playing more than he ever has and to do it at a high level. This is Diop’s fifth season in the league and he’s played more than 30 minutes in a game a grand total of two times. This is one of the same arguments I made against Al Jefferson even after he joined the starting lineup and he hasn’t broken the 30-minute mark at all in 8 starts. Avery Johnson hasn’t given up on Erick Dampier yet, and this could be one of those old-fashioned “motivation” benchings, although it might take more than that to motivate a guy who’s going to get paid $53 million over the next five seasons no matter what.

Some people want to think of Diop as a poor man’s Ben Wallace, but a homeless, penniless Ben Wallace might be more like it. Like Wallace, Diop can help out in steals; he averages 1.3 steals per 40 over his career, which isn’t bad at all for a center. Unfortunately, he also shares Big Ben’s inability to put the ball in the basket. While he’s shooting 45% this season, he’s a career 37% shooter. And it would be a miracle if he could ever get his FT% up to 50%. While he won’t shoot nearly enough in either category to hurt you too much, it’s still worth noting. The Mavs are an extremely deep team. They don’t need to have a center out there at all times, as they can get by with Dirk Nowitzki at the five for stretches. The Mavs need Diop to be at his most energetic whenever he’s out there, so it’s probably not in their best interests to have him out there for 32-35 mpg. Grab him, stash him, start him if you need him, but if there’s one lesson that his column should make you realize, it’s that finding serious help at center on the waiver wire is almost always more fantasy than reality.

Comet Gain
Chris Kaman – Wow. Just, wow. Not only a top center, but a dominant overall force the past couple weeks. Might not last when Elton Brand returns, but he’s looking more and more like a legit #1 center.

Samuel Dalembert – Like Kaman, not just a top center lately, but an absolutely dominant force. He’s not missing – including from the line – and he’s swatting away everything in sight (which unfortunately for the 76ers means many obvious goaltends). His 37 mpg so far in January is huge for a center.

Ben Wallace – The old Big Ben is back; 13.8 boards and 2.7 blocks so far in January. Now about that 29% from the free throw line in that span…

The Hold Steady
Rasheed Wallace – Has slowed down a bit, his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired from a C, but he’ll keep raining in those 3s and getting the blocks.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s staying healthy, he’s hitting his shots, and is more than respectable on the boards and in blocks. A steadying force in the middle.

Brad Miller – A couple of down games recently, but he’s still one of the top 30 or so fantasy players in the league.

The Fall
Shaquille O’Neal – You knew you were punting free throws; but 15/10 with just 1 block per game in January leaves a lot to be desired.

Brendan Haywood – Back in the starting lineup after a two-game absence, but still too inconsistent to be counted on.

Joel Przybilla – Nothing more than a blocks specialist now that Theo Ratliff is on a run of good health.

I’ll do my very best to answer any relevant big man questions in the comments here, so feel free to ask away on guys not mentioned (or mentioned) here.

Boston Celtics

What can i say about the Celts? I'm confused by this team year after year. It's nice to see them do well, but sometimes i have to wonder how they do it? Paul Pierce of course is the only consistent scorer Celtics fans have known for years.

This off season they lost Antoine Walker. You know, when Walker came back to the Celtics last season and played next to Pierce again, it was like the good ol' days, before Walker got it through his thick skull that he had a better chance of winning a championship with the Dallas Mavericks and eventually found himself in the worse position of playing for the bottom feeding Atlanta Hawks before he was traded at the deadline back to the Celtics. Once again Walker has taken off for greener pastures and is banking on Shaquille O'Neal's ability to win games and increase his championship aspirations. Walker has even stated he wouldn't mind coming off the bench in Miami. What? Antoine, say it ain't so... Aww.

Mark Blount disappointed last season after signing a big contract. Why does that happen anyway? The player isn't as hungry anymore? Now he's got enough money to buy all the "big man" dinners he can eat.

Ricky Davis was a legitimate sixth man award candidate last season and he brought his game to a new level, toning down on the head games he usually plays and concentrating on coach Doc Rivers' plan of action.

What i wonder now is who will play point guard for the Celtics? Gary Payton has decided to go off and hang from Shaq's nuts for another year in hopes of winning his much desired championship, and for that reason alone i am putting the official HEX on that Miami Heat. The only way they should win the championship is if they trade Payton to the Hornets before the playoffs. That's right, let "the glove" deal with that bit or reality.

The Celtics are deep at point guard still, very deep, but the skill level is questionable. They have young guards capable of shinning at different points, so it will be the coach's job to figure out who will bring the most to the table. Marcus Banks, Delonte West, Orien Greene and Will Bynum will all be competing for minutes at the point.

Another big question mark? Gerald Green. What will the rookie bring to the floor with him? Before the draft he was touted as the next Tracy McGrady, but he sunk from the projected top 6 pick down to where the Celtics picked him at number 18. The look on his face when he was passed by pick after pick was priceless.

Look for Al Jefferson to step up this year and be the starting power forward. Jefferson was the steal of the draft last season and showed a lot of toughness and his skills should be greatly improved after one season in the league.

My Picks:

Best Player: Paul Pierce
Best Rookie: Gerald Green
Prediction: 2nd (Atlantic), 8th (East)

Philadelphia 76'ers

The Sixers made an impressive push for first place in the Atlantic last season. After starting the year badly, Allen Iverson did his usual and saved the team from mediocrity until his teammates and some trades came to relieve some pressure.

The biggest move last season was the acquisition of Chris Webber, or shadow thereof. The power forward was one of the more dominant players years ago. Although he's shown he can still score points and bring down a bunch of rebounds, his paycheck still reflects the performance of years past and his contract along with Iverson's will eventually choke the 76'ers, so they have to win now! There is no time to waste.

The Sixers were able to re-sign most of the free agents they stood to lose and hopefully will benefit from the resigning of Kyle Korver, the sharpshooter and Samuel Dalembert, who seemed destined to make major money, even though he's just shown spurts of what people assume will be a great defensive game and decent offensive abilities.

I was reading another preview article this morning and the name Jamal Mashburn came up. I had to double check the date of the article. Mashburn has been gone from the league so long, he should have joined the cast of "Lost". It seems there is a possibility of Mashburn actually getting some playing time this season. I don't know, i don't buy it. Until i actually see Mash playing some pre-season games, or just plain suiting up for a shoot around, I'm not going to anticipate anything. However, if the Sixers were to get even 40 games out of a player with that kind of skill, it couldn't hurt, could it?

The guy that excites me the most is another solid pick from last years draft, Andre Iguodala. He doesn't seem to show at the top of the scoring sheet, but that kind of honor is obviously bestowed on Iverson and Webber at this point, but Iguodala does everything right. He's a decent defender, and exciting slasher to the basket and DAMN, he's got some hops, that's for sure. I look forward to the "other" AI getting more involved in the team's offensive schemes and I'm sure he won't disappoint.

My Picks:

Best Player: Allen Iverson
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 3rd (Atlantic), 9th (East)

New Jersey Nets

Ok, first off, living in Toronto tends to skew your view of the Nets. No doubt the Nets were able to pick Rob Babcock's pocket in picking up Vince Carter. The picks Toronto acquired may or may not pan out and that answer is years in the future.

Jason Kidd is the heart and soul of this team and both Richard Jefferson and Carter will take the lead from Kidd. This is a powerful three headed monster we're looking at. If Kidd can remain injury free this season, there is no doubt the Nets will be contending for the top position in the Atlantic.

Carter and Jefferson have to be regarded as the top offensive duo on the Atlantic and the team isn't too shabby on the defensive end either.

Nenad Krstic became one of my favorite players to watch last season. After trading Aaron Williams to Toronto in the afore mentioned Carter trade, not only did Krstic find more minutes to showcase his skills, but he played well enough to earn more minutes than Jason Collins, who's been starting in New Jersey for years.

The off season has been a weird one for the Nets. The Nets' team doctors have uncovered a heart aliment in Robert Traylor and found what may turn into bad knee tendinitis in Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Not signing Traylor was that painful for the Nets, but I'm sure they will be feeling the loss of a player like Abdur-Rahim, who would have made the starting lineup completely well rounded and potent, might leave some fans in New Jersey wondering what could have been.

The Nets did solidify their point guard position with the signing of Jeff McInnis. McInnis is a decent point guard and may see some time as the shooting guard. The signing will also insure the team won't be left high and dry of something were to happen to Kidd this season.

The Nets' first round pick this year, Antoine Wright, by all accounts should be a solid contributor off the bench, a capable scorer and good shooter.

It's doubtful the teams impending move to Brooklyn will weigh on the players minds, but you can't completely discount something like that.

My Picks:

Best Player: Richard Refferson
Best Rookie: Antoine Wright
Prediction: 1st (Atlantic), 5th (East)

Toronto Raptors

Woah Nelly! Another year in Toronto, another set of Desperate Housewives set of dramatic events. The season hasn't yet begun and the media had a field day with GM Rob Babcock. ESPN simply murdered Babcock's pick of Charlie Villanueva on draft night. I must admit, i was sitting at home ready to bury my logitech mouse through my 21" monitor.

Babcock appeared to have been taken advantage of in the trade of Vince Carter last season, getting 3 players and 2 draft picks. None of the 3 players acquired proved to be starters on the Raptors, in fact, the Raptors had to deal with Eric Williams requesting a trade out of Toronto (which he's recently rescinded) and in a move that angered a lot of fans, the Raptors paid Alonzo Mourning $10 million dollars to simply not show up in Toronto, freeing him up to sign with Miami and back up Shaq.

Babcock was also quoted in the media recently as stating that this year's team WILL NOT win more games than last years team. It's true that the team lost Donyell Marshall, who was a good scorer and solid contributor to the team, but once again, the fans went crazy with "Fire Babcock" chants. It may be the truth, but damn, the truth hurts and it shows Babcock's unprofessionalism.

On the court though, things may not be that bad. Chris Bosh has emerged as a powerful weapon the team should move to make the number one option on offense. Jalen Rose is still a good scorer on any team, and when his head is into it, he can play good defense and change the scope of a game with his post skills. Let's hope he can admit the need of the young players getting some much needed minutes if this team is to move forward anytime soon. Rose has been rumored in trade talk with the LA Lakers, and Rob Babcock has stated there is a 50/50 chance of a trade before the beginning of the season and speculation has it, Rose's contract would be a nice one to get rid of.

Villanueva will be a question mark until the team figures out where he's going to fit on the court with Bosh. What ESPN had right in their diatribe, is that the Raptors drafted a player that plays the same position as Bosh, forcing one of the two players to play out of position. Although Bosh had some success playing center, his game is more tuned to the power forward position. Villanueva has been rumored to play the center position, which is possible, but he's also been rumored to play the small forward position, which would be interesting with his size, but most think his lack of foot speed will get him eaten up in the NBA game speed.

Joey Graham is a physical specimen as many are fond of saying. He's got a great NBA body, good work ethic and appears to be able to do everything needed on the court. I see some of Andre Iguodala's game in Graham and if that's the case, it's not a bad thing at all.

What can i say about the point guard? Rafer Alston was actually one of the best point guards in the East last season, no doubt about it. He could have had his assist numbers rival the best dimers in the league, but he did fall in love with his shot towards the All-Star break and the relationship with coach Sam Mitchell was strained towards the end of the season. If Alston understands the game plan this season and begins picking his spots more carefully, his play can open up the offense and give the young players some room to maneuver. Just gotta keep those emotions in check Rafer!

Oh, one more thing. Rafael Araujo has actually regressed if you believe his performance with the Brazilian national team this summer. The backup center on the team seemed to school him at most practices and his opponents on the court were able to get the best of him for the most part. It's true that "big men" take longer to develop, but this is going to be one of those players we will label as an undeniable bust if he doesn't log significant minutes with the Raptors this season. Not just because he was picked at number 8 in last season's draft, but because he's now 25 years old, which was supposed to be a selling point, "he's already a man and understands his responsibility", but was there a player in the league that looked more lost at times on the court? I watch a lot of basketball and i don't remember one.

My Picks:

Best Player: Chris Bosh
Best Rookie: Joey Graham
Prediction: 5th (Atlantic), 14th (East)

New York Knicks

Oh Boy! Hmmm... The Knicks is the team where talent goes to die, or so it seems. The team consists of high paid under achievers with attitudes to boot.

The best move the Knicks made this off season? No, it wasn't trading for Quentin Richardson, it wasn't signing an immobile center in Jerome James, it wasn't deciding to keep Allan Houston and pay him him incredible salary. Their best move was to sign a coach in Larry Brown that seems to make talent gel, regardless of the talent gathered, and damn, they can use some of that magic.

I will keep my Isaiah Thomas rant short, but damn, this guy knows how to spend money, doesn't he? Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Stephon Marbury, all players i believe are overpaid and are in New York because Thomas wanted them, he can only use the previous GM as an excuse for so long.

With the bad, comes the good. The Knicks were able to acquire Nate Robinson with the Phoenix suns 21st pick in this years draft and if the pre-season is any indication, Robinson is a steal. There is a video being circulated on the Internet of Robinson one-hoop catching an offensive rebound mid-air and dunking it back over 3 Minnesota Timberwolves summer league participants. Incredible, but how much playing time will Robinson get being a rookie and backing up Marbury?

I'm not comfortable predicting anything with the Knicks. I don't like the way the team is managed but i respect their coach's coaching ability.

The team might be a good position to get younger at the end of this season. Will someone trade some youth for Anfernee Hardaway or Tim Thomas? What do these players have to offer that any contender would want?

My Picks:

Best Player: Stephon Marbury
Best Rookie: Nate Robinson
Prediction: 4th (Atlantic), 12th (East)

The Celtics' Baby Steps:
Doc Rivers has to hate this teenybop movement, but the Celtics couldn't pass on spectacular prep star Gerald Green in the first round of June's draft. He was freakish in the summer league. Al Jefferson, a brute force, has turned out to be a wise choice as Danny Ainge's No. 1 pick of a year ago, and it will be frightening to watch this core develop. And Brian Scalabrine is an underrated signing -- even at $15 million for five years -- what with his versatility and an unparalleled work ethic that will bode well with so many impressionable young minds on the roster.

This isn't the old Eastern Conference in which Paul Pierce's gunning can get the Celts into the postseason, but you have to love Ainge's plan to get young and talented through the draft, get under the cap, and then ultimately go for it in free agency.