HOOPLOG: Andre Miller http://www.hooplog.com/nba/andre-miller/index.php NBA basketball news, rumors, insider analysis and more from around the country. Updated hourly by Team RxSN. Copyright 2009 Mon, 19 Dec 2005 07:57:26 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.2 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss As the Point Guard Turns Three Situations to Pay Attention To (Because Five Just Makes This Column Too Damn Long)
Denver
Earl Watson was one of my favorite guys to write about when doing this column last year. The Memphis rotation prevented him from having consistent fantasy value, but whenever Jason Williams was out, Watson was worth plugging in there. In 14 starts he was good for 11.9/3.3/6.5 with 1.4 steals and 1.1 3s. People thought it was odd when he signed with Denver in the offseason since the team already had point guards Andre Miller and Earl Boykins on board. Those opinions certainly didn’t change after he appeared in just one of the team’s first eight games, and Watson seemed like one of the players most likely to be moved once Dec. 15 came around. But with Earl Boykins nursing an injury, Watson has used the last four games to remind us of what he can do. He’s stepped right into Boykins role, coming off the bench gunning. In four games he’s put up an impressive line of 14.3/2.8/4.5 with 2.0 steals and a shockingly great 3.5 3pg in just 27.3 mpg. The 3s are the big surprise. He’s put up at least seven in each of those four games; he had never attempted seven 3s in a single even once before this stretch. So what does it mean for your fantasy team? Not all that much. Boykins will probably miss a few more games, so Watson will have a few more chances to show his stuff. (It should also be noted that Marcus Camby has missed the last three games and Kenyon Martin sat out yesterday’s, meaning there was more offense to go around.) When Boykins is ready to return, it’s hard to see Watson maintaining any of his current value. Andre Miller is playing some of the best ball of his career, and because of size issues, there’s just no way that all three of them can be on the court together for an extended period of time. Watson’s inspired play this past week has surely captured the attention of teams around the league, but at the same time it probably reminded the Nuggets of why they signed him in the first place. Watson’s a nifty little player, and he’s probably better to have around than Boykins, as Watson’s +9.6 (tops on the team, by the way) compared to Boykins’s –3.0 might attest. The Nuggets are in dire need of interior help with Camby and Martin perpetually banged up and Nene out for the year, so it’s possible Watson could still be shipped out. And now you know – or at least are reminded – that Watson can be filed in with the same group of guys as Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams – all they need is an opportunity.

Portland
Oh, happy day – a legitimate excuse to actually write about my favorite basketball player of the past decade, Steve Blake. If you’re a regular reader – and if you aren’t, may I ask why not? – you should know that we are Wizards fans and former Terps. So we have a long history with Stevie – I even have a Wiz jersey with his name on it. When Antonio Daniels and Chucky Atkins came on board over the summer it was clear that Blake was out of the Wizards’ plans, which was obviously disappointing to me. I didn’t mind seeing Juan Dixon leave – he’s just not all that good. But Blake, while far from a perfect player, is a useful guy to have around as a backup point guard. He signed with Portland, and like Watson, immediately found himself #3 on the depth chart behind Sebastian Telfair and rookie Jarrett Jack. Again like Watson, he was a forgotten man early in the season, appearing in just two of the first 12 games of the season. But once Nate McMillian gave him a chance, he offered some solid production off the bench and when Telfair went down with a thumb injury it was Blake, not Jack, who got the starting nod. That was quite a breakout performance on Friday against the Sonics – 19 points, 13 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 3s, 1 block on 7-of-14 shooting. Despite picking up two fouls in the first minute of last night’s game against the shitty, sorry, no-account, pathetic Wizards, Blake went for 14/5/4 with a 3 in 23 minutes, leading a short-handed Blazers squad to victory. So what does Blake bring to the table? Well, since he arrived at Maryland as a freshman he’s tried to shed the label that he’s not a strong outside shooter, but he’s actually not bad. Over his career thus far he’s 119-for-311, which is a strong 38%. For comparison’s sake, “great shooter” Juan Dixon is a career 32% shooter from long range. Blake’s a smart player who looks for his teammates but has a tendency to try to make the spectacular play a bit too often. I always argued that his game would be better suited for the NBA when he would be surrounded by players who could anticipate and handle his passes. And then he ends up on the 05-06 Blazers. Oh well. Blake seems to have won the trust of McMillian over the past week or so and should stay in the starting lineup as long as Telfair is out, which could be anywhere from a few games to a month. Just keep checking the Portland papers to find out. (Note: Reports indicate Telfair will be out for at least a month. Great news for all the players mentioned here.) As long as Blake is starting he deserves serious consideration and makes a great guy to plug into the utility spot this week, although road games against Detroit, Memphis and Minnesota aren’t the most enticing matchups.

Juan Dixon qualifies at PG in at least Yahoo leagues, and now that he’s cracked the starting lineup for the Blazers, it’s time to give him a shot. We’ve been tough on Juan around here, but we still love him. He’s still not going to be a fantasy savior and given the same amount of PT, Blake should have more value, but Dixon should hit just enough 3s and grab enough steals to have some marginal value. His FG% will always be a drag – he’ll have his good games, like last night’s 8-for-13 performance or his 13-for-22 game against the Hornets two weeks ago, but be prepared for some 4-for-15s. He’s actually been a complete non-entity in the steals department this year, but he averages 1.7 p40 over his career, so you’d expect him to approach that level with regular PT. Jarrett Jack is another person who could have some value in the deepest of leagues while the Blazers deal with all of their injury issues, but it seems like McMillian likes keeping him in a limited role. He had a very impressive 11/6/8 performance last night, but played just six minutes in the game before that. He was Telfair’s primary backup before he went down, and the fact that he was passed over for the starting nod seems to be a pretty good indication of how McMillian wants to use him right now.

Los Angeles Clippers
Shaun Livingston was a popular preseason sleeper pick despite the fact that he has already proven to be quite brittle and would be in the backcourt with proven vets Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley. But it was understandable based on his April stats from last season and the simpler fact that the kid can flat out play. In 10 April starts he put up a line of 11.0/4.4/7.4 with 1.4 steals on 45% shooting. Nice numbers, but he didn’t even attempt a 3 in that period. Not too bad in real life – a point guard needs to make good decisions, and if you can’t hit the 3, don’t take it – but that’s not what we look from from a PG in fantasy land. The Clippers took their time letting Livingston get healthy at the beginning of the season, sensing no need to rush him considering his past and the Clippers fast start. The 20-year old was rusty in his first game back, failing to register an assist in 20 minutes of action; he notched at least one dime in every game he played last year. But Livingston showed why he was so highly regarded in his second game back as he dished 10 assists (with just a single turnover) in 29 minutes of action in a Clips win over the Rockets. Livingston was out there during crunch time, and while that may have had a lot to do with the fact that Corey Maggette was out, it is still worth noting. He obviously has a long future in the league, but his fantasy outlook is still murky. Playing time issues aside – and it looks like he should be able to see around 20 mpg as long as Cassell and Mobley are healthy – Livingston still needs that secondary skill to help him emerge from the pack. We know the assists will be there, but what else? His 1.6 steals p40 last season was good but not great. We already know his complete aversion to shooting 3s. He shot 41% last year, so we can’t expect anything great there. Right now he’s looking a lot like T.J. Ford. Check out their rookie season p40:

Livingston: 10.9/7.4/4.4 with 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, on 41% shooting.
Ford: 10.6/9.7/4.8 with 1.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 3.8 turnovers, on 38% shooting.

Ford has added sort of added the 3-point shot to his repertoire this year (hitting 0.6 per game on 41% shooting) and he’s seriously boosted his FG% even with more shots. So Livingston certainly has a chance to be much improved in the near future. But even if he somehow found himself with a starting job, he looks to be PG2 material for the time being.

Comet Gain
Jason Kidd – 14/9/1 with two 3s, a steal and a block yesterday – in the first quarter. You knew those assists were start piling up

Andre Miller – Speaking of piling up assists, 10.1 in the last 9 games for Miller; also picking up scoring slack with injuries piling up, but career low 72% from the line isn’t too hot.

Chris Duhon – You know he runs hot and cold; 17.0/3.7/4.0 with 3.7 3s and 61% shooting over last three is pretty hot.

Chauncey Billups – Don’t bother calling it an All-Star game if Chauncey’s not there this year; 21.3/2.713.0 with 3 3s on 64% shooting over last 3 is almost – almost – expected at this point.

Chucky Atkins – The 3s are starting to come in bunches – 13 in his last four games; with Jarvis Hayes out for at least the next three games he’s a great short-term add as he’s seen 44.5 mpg in his two starts thus far.

The Hold Steady
Gilbert Arenas – Absolutely killing his owners in FG%, but absolutely dominant in 3s, FT%, assists, steals and points. That’s not a bad trade off.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – Still a starter even with Jamaal Tinsley back? That’s good news. Expect fewer assists, but the steals and 3s should still be there.

Marko Jaric – Numbers haven’t been great (8.5/3.5/6.0 with 1.5 steals and no 3s), but the fact that he’s seen 39 mpg in the two contests since Troy Hudson returned is at least encouraging.

Mike James – A clunker yesterday, but 19.0/3.0/4.7 with 2.3 3s in the three games before that were a nice bounce back.

Stephon Marbury – Still waiting for him to bust out; after going for 30+ in 17 games last year, has done it only twice this year.

The Fall
Jason Williams – Maybe he won’t officially lose his starting job to Gary Payton, but you’ve got to think that especially with Riley on board, he’ll be on an extremely short leash when he gets back.

Nate Robinson – There’s a reason the Knicks are a team to stay away from; one day you’re a “must” pick-up, the next day right back on the waiver wire.

Damon Stoudamire – Still a solid option, but team’s recent scoring woes have taken a toll on his production; career low in steals is very disappointing.

Steve Francis – Shooting only 19-for-54 (35%) since returning from injuries, with a 20 assists/13 turnovers to boot. Quite unimpressive.

Mike Bibby – Another second overall pick that’s been disappointing; I’m still a big fan, but the 0.9 steals after tying his career high with 1.6 last year is bad news. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php Orlando Magic Mon, 19 Dec 2005 07:57:26 -0800 As the Point Guard Turns

Chicago

Kirk Hinrich’s a tough dude. After leaving the season opener with an ankle injury and being questionable the next night, he came out and went for 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting with 3 3s. After being knocked out with a concussion against Dallas, he did miss a game, but then came back with averages of 24/4.5/10 in his next two games. You’ve got to like that. I normally leave players on the bench for a game to let them get back into the swing of things after an injury, but after Hinrich’s last performance I made sure to get him back in. Of course, it should be noted that Captain Kirk saw an average of 43 minutes in those two games due to the absence of Ben Gordon.

I should have known better than to give Chris Duhon any credit. He promptly had four absolute nightmare games before exploding for 24 points, 7 assists and 6 3s against, of course, the goddamn Wizards. Duhon’s still worth keeping around because he’s one of the few players you can tell Scott Skiles actually likes. His steals and 3s are still solid, but he’s starting to lose some of his assists to Hinrich. His minutes have remained fairly consistent, but it was a good thing he had that great game before Ben Gordon came back, because then things would have gotten interesting. ESPN’s Player Rater isn’t the gospel, but it’s an effective tool; as of Saturday night, Duhon was right in between Richard Hamilton and T.J. Ford. Numbers don’t lie, right?

Miami

Was I a little too early in proclaiming the death of Gary Payton’s fantasy relevancy? Looks that way. With Jason Williams nursing a bum knee, Payton has played 42 mpg in two starts, averaging 17/3.5/3 with 2.5 3s and 1.5 steals in his last two. His shot looked especially strong last night in a game against the Wizards THAT WAS HANDED TO THE HEAT BY THE OFFICIALS. Sorry, lost my composure there a bit, the last two Wizards games have been especially brutal. But that was a fucking fraud. Anyway, the 3-pointers are the big news here. Payton hadn’t been a serious long distance threat since the 00-01 season when he averaged 1.3 per game. But The Man Formerly Known as The Glove is putting them up at a high rate this season. Against the Wiz he was spotting up in the corner on multiple occasions – these were designed plays. In his four starts Payton – who topped 8 apg in six straight seasons in the prime of his career – has had more than 3 assists just once, so these 3s are huge for his value, especially since he’s nowhere near the pickpocket he used to be. If he’s going be seeing roughly 40 minutes per games there’s no problem with using him. In weekly leagues he makes a possibly excellent play – the Heat play four games, but who knows when Williams will return?

Atlanta

In case you didn’t notice, there’s a new starting PG in the league. You’d be forgiven for not noticing, of course. Royal Ivey has started the last three games for the Hawks and after a somewhat promising debut in which he scored 14 on 7-of-10 shooting, he still hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in any of those starts. Tyronn Lue is still seeing just about the same amount of time even though he’s now coming off the bench. Actually, I should probably just stop now. The title of this section is Five Situations to Pay Attention To, and unless you play in the deepest league in the entire country, this is certainly not a situation worth your attention.

Los Angeles Lakers

Call me crazy, but I think Sasha Vujajic might actually have some fantasy value at some point this season. The triangle offense doesn’t need a traditional point guard to run it, but Parker barely even resembles a point guard. He’s certainly more of a swingman, and his 1.65:1 assist/turnover ratio backs this up. He’s been putting up decent numbers, but the majority of his production has come early in games. On Saturday he had no production at all; no points, no rebounds, 3 assists, missed all 7 of his shots in 24 minutes. Vujacic wasn’t much better, making only 1-of-3 and he didn’t register a single assist in his 24 minutes. The Lakers have been playing better lately, but they still have very little margin for error. Vujacic’s 3.9:1 assist/turnover ranks fourth in the league, behind only Eric Snow, Brevin Knight and Chauncey Billups. It’s not hard to envision Jackson getting fed up with Parker and making a switch. But what kind of value would Vujajic have if he could find regular PT? Marginal, to be sure. He’s not going to be in there for his scoring, and his 31% shooting so far in his career is almost historically bad. I see him similar to Duhon in that he could hit enough 3s and steals to be a marginal play in weeks when he has enough games, or as a guy to keep on your bench and plug in when the inevitable injuries hit.

Denver

Say this about Earl Boykins: his 26 mpg usually means 26 minutes. In 18 of his 21 games the little man has received between 22 and 29 minutes, which makes him a little easier to deal with than guys that fluctuate between 17-33-24, etc. But the last four games show why Boykins just isn’t a reliable player. Through the season’s first 16 games Boykins was averaging 0.8 3s and 1.1 steals – not great numbers, but enough to merit a utility spot in deep leagues. But that’s about as good as it gets for Boykins in those categories, and you know that he’ll never grab any boards or shoot above 42%. Lots of people have been hoping for Earl to sneak into the starting lineup, but this is a guy who has started 10 games in his 379 game career. His role seems pretty defined. With Andre Miller on one of his hot streaks and piling up the assists, there’s no point in shifting him over to SG in favor of Boykins. You can do better.

Comet Gain

Gilbert Arenas – That was a brutal shooting game last night, but he’s starting to rack up the steals and fills up the box score every night. Think of him as the new AI.

Brevin Knight – Owners don’t have him for scoring, but certainly won’t complain about 17.5 ppg to go along with 9 apg and 2.7 spg in his last six.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – A little bit of everything in his five starts: 11.0/4.2/5.4 with 1.6 3s, 1.0 steals on 52% and 94% shooting. Liking my Brent Barry comparison more and more.

Mo Williams – He’s back on the bench now, but those numbers in his four starts – 19.3/1.5/7.0 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals – and his consistent 3-point gunning off the bench make him worthy of at least a bench spot.

Baron Davis – Yeah yeah yeah, he can’t shoot. But optimists will look at his 41% career number and think that means he’ll shoot around 43% from here on out. Hey, it’s possible.

The Hold Steady

Chauncey Billups – How nice is it to have a guy like this on your team? Holding strong with that career high assist number.

Derek Fisher – Last two games were especially encouraging – no 3s, but still managed to average 16.5 with 1.5 steals. You know my non-starter policy, but if you’re desperate…

Tony Parker – After no steals in first four games, averaging 1.6 since then. In a bit of a shooting slump, but that was to be expected.

Marko Jaric – Life without Hudson is nice; 15.5/5.5/6.0 with 2 3s and 1 steal in 37.5 minutes in last two. Sell high? If you can…

Delonte West – I’m becoming a believer; eight straight games of 30+ minutes and just enough steals, blocks and 3s to merit that final roster spot in your lineup.

The Fall

Deron Williams – Jerry Sloan can’t take all the blame; 31% shooting and 17/12 assist/turnover in last four just won’t cut it.

Sebastian Telfair – You don’t look for rebounds from PG, but four in his last six games is flat-out pathetic;

Jameer Nelson – Back to the bench with Francis back; he’s crippling in leagues that count TO.

Damon Jones – A forgotten man in most recent game; hard to see him making an impact any time soon.

Luther Head – As expected, he’s slid off to irrelevance with the return of McGrady.

]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php Utah Jazz Mon, 12 Dec 2005 08:11:04 -0800 Standings Management: How Much is Enough? With most teams having played somewhere between 12 and 14 games so far, we’re still only about 15-18% of the way through the season. What that means for your fantasy team is that it’s still early. Really early. Early enough that with all the trades (both in real life and in your fantasy league), injuries, PT battles, and other factors still to come, it’s not yet time to really take a look at your standings to find statistical categories that you think you can make a run in. Remember, your goal is to be in first place at the end of the year, not the middle. And no, I’m not just saying that just because I’m not in first place right now in my league.

Anyhow, the biggest part of fantasy basketball, obviously, is getting the best players on your team, keeping up on who’s worth picking up, and all the other things that we talk about here at FBB on an almost-daily basis. But another important part is managing the standings with an eye on the end of the year. And that’s what we’re going to talk about today, and we’ll revisit the subject every couple of weeks as the season progresses.. And despite it being really early in the year, some teams might be in position to take advantage of some things going on in the standings.

Some teams are right now dealing with some extremes. Some might be woefully far behind and thinking about punting a category (which is a whole different article). Others, though might be way far ahead in a category. How do you play this situation? For example, if you’re dominating the field in blocks, is it worth having Alonzo Mourning on your team? After all, if you’re really that far ahead in blocks, his value is really being wasted on your squad.

But, how much is enough? How far ahead do you have to be in a certain category before you can start trading for other concerns? Well, it’s different in every situation and I’m sure there’s some crazy algorithm to figure out an exact number, but instead, let’s look at some things to keep in mind:

Look at averages, not totals.
Sure, your standings are generally in rotisserie-style totals, but it’s just a quick cut-and-paste into a spreadsheet and you can turn your total numbers into averages. This will give you a much better idea of just how much leverage you have. For example, if your team as a whole is averaging 10 blocks per “night” (with a “night” being defined as all of your starters playing one game), and the guy behind you is averaging 8 blocks per game, you can trade away 2 blocks and still maintain your lead.

Where’s the “bunch”?
In a lot of statistical categories, you’ll notice bunches of guys in the same area. Now, as I said in the beginning, these bunches will shift as the season progresses, but nonetheless you have to be worried if the category you’re dominating has a bunch at the next tier, for a couple of reasons. One, the more teams there are somewhat near you, the more teams there are with a chance to make a move and pass you. Two, if you suffer an injury to a contributor in that category, you’re now at risk of moving really far down the standings there. If the bunch is further down in the standings, you’re at far less risk if you do decide to trade a contributor.

Who’s ready to make a move?
Remember, this early in the season, some teams’ current output is not necessarily representative of what they will do over the course of the year. Just like an injury can bring your team down, a player returning from injury can boost another team’s numbers. A great example is the return of Samuel Dalembert. If you’ve got what seems like a great lead in blocks, but the guy behind you has Dalembert, your lead really isn’t as good as it seems, because Dalembert will help the other team catch up to – and quick.

Now, if you take a look at all of these things and still decide that you can give up some of your advantage in that category, don’t just look to trade one-category guys. For example, if you’re dominating boards, don’t just try to trade players like Zach Randolph or Ben Wallace. Trading strong-rebounding PG’s like Jason Kidd or Andre Miller is just as helpful for your team if you can get quality guys who don’t rebound like Chauncey Billups or Steve Nash in return.

Remember, this early in the year, it’s dangerous to make moves like this, but making the right call could have huge benefits for your fantasy squad down the line. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/standings-management-how-much-is-enough.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/standings-management-how-much-is-enough.php Chauncey Billups Tue, 29 Nov 2005 09:22:14 -0800 Watson in Nuggets doghouse? George Karl had a half-hour talk Saturday with point guard Earl Watson, who signed a five-year, $29 million contract in September. Watson's playing time was the key subject. Backing up Andre Miller and Earl Boykins, Watson has not played in... http://www.hooplog.com/nba/watson-in-nuggets-doghouse.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/watson-in-nuggets-doghouse.php Andre Miller Mon, 07 Nov 2005 09:52:39 -0800 Miller Arrested on Warrant Due to Traffic Citation http://www.hooplog.com/nba/miller-arrested-on-warrant-due-to-traffic-citation.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/miller-arrested-on-warrant-due-to-traffic-citation.php Andre Miller Thu, 03 Nov 2005 15:49:13 -0800 Overall Rankings: 31 to 60 1 to 30

31. Chauncey Billups – We love PGs here at FBB, and they don’t come more rock solid than this one.
32. Jason Terry – No, seriously, we love PGs, especially ones who were able to finish 30th on the player rater while only getting 30 mpg. The FG% will go down (way down), but everything else will go up.
33. Jason Richardson – J-Rich has only improved during his four years, and the Warriors are primed to be this year’s version of the Suns.
34. Kirk Hinrich – News that Duhon and not Gordon will be his starting backcourt mate is a bit of a buzzkill.
35. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s proven he can stay healthy, but there are many weapons on Cleveland, whereas last year he was one of just three.
36. Ben Wallace – That FT% hurts more than you think and he’s not the same as he was three years ago; still, there’s hope for a contract year rebound. Literally.
37. Dwight Howard – It’s easy to get too excited about “what might be,” but he’s a stud in the making, no doubt.
38. Emeka Okafor – Hope for a few more blocks than last year and that his back doesn’t get too cranky.
39. Shaquille O’Neal – And even this might be too high. Let’s talk about Shaq for a moment. It’s near impossible to win with him on your team, that’s why you can’t do it unless he’s your fourth rounder, because you need that many studs to help you finish near the top in the other seven categories. Because kiss FT% goodbye. And for the love of god, don’t do something stupid and draft someone like Ray Allen or Chauncey Billups to “offset” Shaq. That’s just about the worst thing you can do, because it won’t even come close to bringing you out of the cellar, and you are wasting the value of a player like that. But therein lies the problem. Since you have to wait until the fourth (maybe third) round to realistically draft Shaq, unless you have already drafted players that compliment him, you probably can’t even afford to draft him anyway.
40. Lamar Odom – Could be primed for a huge year, but this is his seventh season, so time might be running out; just not enough 3s, steals or blocks to be truly great.
41. Larry Hughes – The steals and assists will go down, but he’s a solid all-around contributor.
42. Andre Igoudala – Absolutely love his all around game; he’s an Artest in the making. That’s a compliment, by the way.
43. Manu Ginobili – If only the Spurs weren’t so deep that he was limited to just 30 mpg.
44. Corey Maggette – His FT% dominance can’t be overlooked, but other than that he’s an oft-injured, points-only swingman.
45. Richard Jefferson – Like Odom and Maggette, lack of help in steals, blocks and 3s hurts his value.
46. Michael Redd – Not a favorite around here, but he is top dog in Milwaukee, which counts for something.
47. Andre Miller – Has missed three games in his career and averaged 8.2 apg after the break last year; that’s a nice and steady mid-round pick if there ever was one.
48. Marcus Camby – Injuries are already bothering him; has the talent to justify being taken here (much earlier, actually), but he will always be a risk.
49. Zach Randolph – If he can go 20/10 with percentages of 50 and 80, you can look past the rest of his game; he’s certainly The Man in Portland, which is mostly good, but might hurt his FG%.
50. Rasheed Wallace – Center eligibility, 3s, blocks, durability make for a nice package.
51. Cuttino Mobley – Bombs away. And away, and away, and away; could be back to old 40 mpg self.
52. Donyell Marhsall – Have to think he’ll get his minutes once the rotation shakes out; fantasy God with enough PT.
53. Rafer Alston – Moves into a perfect situation, especially if Sura won’t be available.
54. Carlos Boozer – Not much at all separating him from Randolph.
55. Richard Hamilton – Don’t take him any higher, but he’s durable and consistent.
56. Tyson Chandler – We think he’ll be a better guy to have on your team than Camby this year.
57. Josh Smith – If you can deal with some ups and downs, you’ll likely have a first place blocks finish to show for it.
58. Chris Webber – Could be the steal of the draft at this spot … but probably not.
59. Josh Howard – If Avery plays him as much as he says he’s going to, this will end up being low.
60. Bobby Simmons – Going for steady, all-around contributors in the middle rounds isn’t a bad strategy. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/overall-rankings-31-to-60.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/overall-rankings-31-to-60.php Orlando Magic Tue, 18 Oct 2005 09:59:37 -0800 Nuggets don't need Watson? Denver's Andre Miller wonders why management brought in Earl Watson as a third point guard behind him and Earl Boykins, with no true shooting guard.... http://www.hooplog.com/nba/nuggets-dont-need-watson.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/nuggets-dont-need-watson.php Andre Miller Tue, 11 Oct 2005 10:15:58 -0800 Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Four (For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team L: Jason Richardson (Lamar Odom, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)
Team K: Larry Hughes (Pau Gasol, Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team J: Zydraunas Ilgauskas (Chauncey Billups, Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team I: Rashard Lewis (Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team H: Michael Redd (Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team G: Kirk Hinrich (Steve Francis, Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team F: Richard Jefferson (Manu Ginobili, Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team E: Andre Miller (Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team D: Marcus Camby (Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team C: Andre Iguodala (Baron Davis, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Ron Artest, Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team A: Jason Terry (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)

In round four of our mock draft, we’re seeing basically an extension of round three. With only about one round left of “solid” players (more on that later in the week), your goal in the fourth has to be to start setting yourself up for the later rounds. You want to be worried about team needs, but at the same time, you want to be able to take the best player available (BPA). There’s nothing worse than really stretching for a guy this early just because your team is really lacking in a category so far. So what you’ll see happening in our mock draft is that teams are settling for someone who at least comes close to qualifying as a team need and a BPA.

The fourth round, perhaps more than any other, is where your draft preparation will really come into play. If you’ve ranked players about 50 or 60 deep, it will make your fourth round much earlier. All you have to do is take your draft sheet, identify the 4 or 5 highest-ranked players, and then choose the one among those who best serves your needs. Take, for example, Team H. The top available players there (according to our lists) were Redd, Hinrich, Jefferson, and Miller. We would have those guys ranked with Jefferson first, then Hinrich, followed by Redd and Miller. However, we felt like this team needed some scoring punch, as it’s possible that neither Dwight Howard nor Steve Nash will put up 16 ppg this year. The highest scoring player among our BPA’s was Michael Redd, so he was the choice there, despite the fact that we had ranked Jefferson and Hinrich ahead of him.

So, what teams do you think look the best so far? ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/fantasy-basketball-mock-draft-a-round-four.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/fantasy-basketball-mock-draft-a-round-four.php Joe Johnson Wed, 28 Sep 2005 09:43:18 -0800 Offseason Overview: Minnesota Timberwolves What a bummer, huh? Pegged by many to be right at the top of the West with the Spurs and Kings, the Timberwolves didn’t even make the playoffs. Why? Well, for one, Latrell Sprewell returned to his former self – off the court, not on it – and Sam Cassell was injured and full of complaints himself. Now that they’ve jettisoned Tweedle-Dreads and Tweedle-Dum, hopefully they’ve gotten rid of all their distractions, and folks will fall in line behind the leader. But who will fall where?

The Stud: Ndudi Ebi, SF
I kid, I kid. Of course, the real stud here is none other than Kevin Garnett, perennial number one fantasy pick in just about every league. This year may be more up in the air due to the rise of LBJ, but that’s not a knock on KG. He’s as consistent as ever, a 7-category player who even hits three-pointers once in awhile. He dominates in boards, and his assists and steals are spectacular for a forward. Oh, and he hasn’t missed a game in 3 years. He’ll be gone after the second pick in every draft, and rightfully so.

The Support: Marko Jaric, G
Yes, really, this is the next best fantasy prospect on the Wolves. But really, Marko is a nice sleeper pick this year. He’ll get plenty of minutes, contributes in 3’s, steals, and assists, and should be a nice 3rd guard. Think Andre Miller with fewer points but more threes.

The Supporting Support: Wally Szczerbiak, SF
Something is rotten in Wally World. Originally drafted as a big, versatile shooting guard, Szczerbiak has turned into little more than a spot-up shooter. He grabs a rebound about every 8 minutes he’s on the court, isn’t particularly interested in “passing”, and his defensive numbers are pretty dismal. He’s gonna be on a roster, but don’t let it be yours.

The Sleeper: Eddie Griffin, F
There aren’t many people with the skill set that Eddie Griffin brings to the fantasy basketball table. A big plus in blocks, he also helps in three pointers and rebounds, despite only getting 21 minutes per game last year. Imagine what he could do with 35 mpg. If he gets those minutes, he’s a top-50 fantasy player waiting to happen.

The Slacker: Michael Olowokandi, C
I’ll admit, after his 12.3/9.1 with 2.2 blocks in 2002, I was ready to watch the Kandi man explode with the T-Wolves. But now, it’s time to cross him off your draft lists. He’s probably got some potential still, but at this point the odds of him reaching it are so slim, he’s not worth taking. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/offseason-overview-minnesota-timberwolves.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/offseason-overview-minnesota-timberwolves.php San Antonio Spurs Tue, 06 Sep 2005 10:23:11 -0800 Brrr…. Is There a Draft in Here? [While KnickerBlogger has been ignoring his blog by shmoozing it up with close friends visiting from out of town, KnickerBlogger's Head College Expert David Crockett has been busy thinking about the Knicks future. In an attempt to become the Mel Kiper Jr. of the NBA, "Dr. C." has gone over the Knicks' needs for the June draft.

David Crockett is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of South Carolina, and can be reached at dcrockett17@yahoo.com.]

On May 24th the 2005 Draft Lottery will take place in the NBA studios. At that time the Knicks will know where they will draft in what is shaping up as a reasonably talented draft, depending on which early entrants hire agents and stay in the draft. Of course the playoffs will determine where the team’s second first round pick, obtained from the Spurs (via Phoenix), will be chosen. I knew it was time to think about a draft column when I got an email from a buddy of mine, a bona fide Jayhawk backer and Duke hater, comprised of three short sentences:
I hope you’re sitting down when you read this…
I just heard that Shavlik Randolph is going league.
I am incapable of rational thought right now.
So even though much is still to be determined between now and June I thought I’d fire up my Mel Kiper wig and dig into the NBA draft a bit.

First, We Need a Guard
So what do our beloved Knickerbockers need heading into the 2005-2006 season? Well, in a sharp departure from many of the pundits I believe the Knicks’ first priority is in the backcourt rather than at center.

Stephon Marbury had one of the finest offensive seasons by a New York Knick in recent memory in 2004-2005. Though he is not the league’s best point guard, a claim for which he was waaaay overcriticized, “Starbury” demonstrated the kind of skill and maturity – e.g., moving off the ball to facilitate Crawford’s development – few thought possible. According to Knickerblogger's stat page Marbury’s assist ratio (27.3 assists per 100 possessions) ranked him a somewhat pedestrian 14th in the league among those playing at least 25 minutes per game. However, he was one of only five players on that list who also had a turnover ratio under 10. 82games.com lists Marbury’s PER as a lofty 23.3 and Knickerblogger reports it as a tad below 23; both numbers are clearly in the high-rent district. Marbury’s efg was over 50% and he went to the line frequently, making 35 free-throws per 100 shots from the floor.

Of course, offense was the problem at the world’s most famous arena this season. Offensively, the Knicks’ 103 points per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency) was middle of the pack (16th) – a far cry from Phoenix’s 111.8 but better than that posted by these playoff teams: Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Pistons, Sixers, and Grizzlies. Unfortunately, in an all too familiar refrain the Knicks sucked eggs defensively this season; just like last season. However unlike last season when the available statistical evidence failed to provide undisputable proof that the backcourt was the primary problem, this season’s stats are much more sympathetic to this point of view. Marbury and Crawford were, simply put, terrible. According to 82games, in 2003-2004 Marbury held opposing point guards to a surprisingly respectable 14.5 PER. (Average PER is set at 15.) This season he allowed an opponents’ PER of 16.5. Marbury gave up more penetration (26% in-close FGAs vs. 21% in 2003-2004) and more free throw attempts per 48 minutes (4.7 vs. 3.6). His opponents shot 48.6% efg and had over 8 assists per 48. These incidental numbers strongly suggest that Marbury’s shoddy defense requires him to post phenomenal offensive numbers just to remain a net positive and that his offense comes at the price of major stress on the frontcourt to cover for his deficiencies.

Certainly, a large part of Marbury’s inconsistency and ineffectiveness on defense comes from his indifference. However, we are also starting to see the ill-effects of 8 consecutive seasons of 38+ minutes per game (mpg) on his body. He has fatigued at the ends of the last two seasons and his knee became a problem as this season wore on. Is it any wonder? He just completed his ninth season averaging 40 minutes per game and a career high in total minutes, 2nd only to Lebron James. Only in Marbury’s rookie season did he average fewer than 38 mpg. It would simply be foolish for the Knicks to continue to play Marbury 38-40 minutes per night without expecting his body to break down even more rapidly and eventually impact his offense. Marbury can be more effective playing fewer minutes. Jason Kidd has had seven sub-38 mpg seasons, including each season in New Jersey. Steve Nash has yet to average 38 mpg in any season. This season he averaged 34 (not even among the top 50), managing the league’s most efficient offense without a “true” backup point guard no less. If these two guys are playing around 34-35 mpg Marbury should be playing no more.

At the shooting guard position Jamal Crawford looked every bit the “instant offense” third guard he really is this season. At times he was indefensible but as his minutes increased to 38+ his warts became more visible. According to 82games.com, in his minutes at shooting guard Crawford shot almost 50% and had a more than respectable 16.8 PER. However his 18.2 opponents’ PER made everyone he guarded look practically like Peja Stojakovic. Crawford, like his backcourt mate, gave up tons of penetration to opposing guards (26% in-close FG%), and ever the gentlemen, regularly ushered them to the free throw line (5.3 FTA per 48). Whatever additional pressure Marbury put on the frontcourt to mask his defensive shortcomings Crawford matched, only without the consistent offensive production. The Knicks don’t want to be forced to play Crawford more than 20-25 mpg, much less the 38+ he played this season.

The Knicks desperately need backcourt help. On a per 48 minute basis the opposing backcourt is taking more than half its shots from in close and taking 10 trips to the free throw line. The key to defensive improvement is cutting down on the penetration from opposing guards. A shot-blocking center that can erase penetration is a luxury; one most teams must live without. Such players are in woefully short supply and the Knicks would not be wise to pin their hopes on acquiring a ready made center in the draft or the free agent market.

The wiser course of action is to look to the draft for backcourt help. The value appears to be at point guard, with high-quality collegiate point guards available into the 2nd round. The shooting guard position looks weak by comparison. Which point guards and shooting guards should the Knicks consider with their three picks? I’ve listed a few players the Knicks might consider just to whet the appetite. More will come after the Chicago pre-draft camp and workouts. (Note: comments on college players only.)

Point Guards

Name/College Availability? Comment
Chris Paul, Wake Forest Early first round, 2nd (New Orleans) to 6th (Milwaukee), depending on team needs and workouts Paul was perhaps the most efficient offensive perimeter player in the nation this season. He absolutely lived at the free throw line; amazing for a sub-six footer. On the other hand, Paul doesn’t defend. The Knicks don’t need anymore of that.
Deron Williams, Illinois Early first round 4th (Utah) to late lottery 16th (Toronto) depending on workouts I really like Williams even though he doesn’t fit Isiah’s “athleticism” mantra. He’s a high IQ, instinctive player. He’s a bit like Andre Miller without the post-up game but a much better jump shooter. He’s best-suited to run a half-court screen-roll or a passing and cutting offense but he can get up and down too.
Raymond Felton, North Carolina Early first round 4th (Utah) to mid-lottery 12th (LA Clippers) No college player is better than Felton at pushing the ball at the defense. He’s smart, fearless, he defends, and his jump shot is developing. He’s tailor-made for an uptempo team that asks its point guard to penetrate-and-kick. He strikes me as a comparable, though better prospect than T.J. Ford because of his strength.
Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech. Mid-lottery 8th (Knicks) to end of round 1 30th (Knicks) depending on workouts Declared but hasn’t hired an agent. Opinions are all over the place on him. His detractors generally point to his turnovers. I love Jack’s all around game, particularly his on ball defense, and his athleticism. If he goes to Chicago and plays well he could solidify his status in the mid-to-late lottery.
Nate Robinson, Washington Early 2nd round Robinson is an exceptional on-ball defender and may be the best pound-for-pound athlete in the draft. Unfortunately, he also may have hurt his draft status more than any other player with a disappointing NCAA tournament.
John Gilchrist, Maryland Early to mid 2nd round He has everything you could ask for from a physical standpoint. His basketball IQ just isn’t there yet. He should have gone back to school.
Luther Head, Illinois Early-to-mid 2nd round Luther is a combo guard who will find his way onto a team as an excellent passer, defensive stopper, and a guy who will take a big shot.
Aaron Miles, Kansas Late 2nd round/free agent Miles has all the intangibles – basketball IQ, pure point guard skills, feel for the game, leadership, toughness, unselfishness – but lacks size and anything resembling a jump shot. He’s small and light. He has to find the right situation, or as I heard someone put it recently, “Hit the Chris Duhon lottery.”


Of the point guards listed I think Williams, Felton, and Jack have the most to contribute to the Knicks immediately. Each could run the second unit. Each pushes the ball and thinks pass-first, but can score if needed. Most importantly, each will play their first NBA summer league game as a better on-ball defender than Marbury or Crawford is right now.

Shooting Guards

Name/College Availability? Comment
Antoine Wright, Texas A&M Late lottery #10 (Lakers) to #30 (Knicks) Played his entire career on really awful teams but put up good numbers. He’s a willing defender and a potentially dynamite scorer. He has an NBA ready body.
Kennedy Winston, Alabama Late lottery #10 (Lakers) to #30 (Knicks) There is a lot to like. Winston has a great body and a great stroke, but can be lazy defensively and is turnover prone.
Francisco Garcia, Louisville Late first round #20 (Denver) to #30 (Knicks) Garcia is the Deron Williams of shooting guards. His basketball skills and IQ are his biggest assets. He’ll need to go to a team that values those things and is willing to live with his athletic deficiencies.
Salim Stoudamire, Arizona Early 2nd round More Steve Kerr (pure shooter) than Eddie House (scorer). Unlike House or Kerr though, Stoudamire’s defense will allow him to stay on the floor. Also, he can run the point for a few minutes a night.
Tiras Wade, LA-Lafayette Mid-late 2nd round Big-time scorer with nice size from a small conference.
Alex Acker, Pepperdine Late 2nd round/free agent Alex is another combo guard. An athletic 6’5” with some legitimate point guard skills he could conceivably work his way into round 1.


Overall, I’m not so sure this is the draft the Knicks will find an heir apparent to Houston at shooting guard, particularly once Wright and Winston are off the board. I’m assuming Isiah isn’t silly enough to consider a schoolboy shooting guard (Gerald Green or Martell Webster), particularly since defense rather than scoring is the problem in the backcourt. The Knicks may be best off continuing to develop Ariza as a swing man rotating him with Crawford and Penny.

Coming Soon: We Need a Center Too ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/brrra-is-there-a-draft-in-here.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/brrra-is-there-a-draft-in-here.php Gerald Green Sat, 21 May 2005 17:48:38 -0800 Denver stuns Spurs in Game 1 (AP) The San Antonio Spurs couldn't stop missing, and the Denver Nuggets walked off as winners. Andre Miller scored 31 points and Denver held San Antonio without a field goal for more than 10 minutes of the fourth quarter Sunday as the Nuggets defeated the Spurs 93-87 in the opening game of their first-round playoff series. http://www.hooplog.com/nba/denver-stuns-spurs-in-game-1-ap.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/denver-stuns-spurs-in-game-1-ap.php San Antonio Spurs Sun, 24 Apr 2005 21:06:58 -0800 Miller's Unorthodox Style Suits Nuggets The form on Andre Miller's jumper resembles someone trying to shove a heavy box onto a high shelf. http://www.hooplog.com/nba/millers-unorthodox-style-suits-nuggets.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/millers-unorthodox-style-suits-nuggets.php Andre Miller Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:59:13 -0800 As the Point Guard Turns
The Celtics situation is far from resolved. After Gary Payton was shipped to Atlanta, Delonte West who played a total of 120 minutes in the NBA prior to the trade stepped directly into the starting lineup the past two games and in 37 mpg put up 17.5/5.0/2.5 with 2.5 3s, 1.5 steals and 1 block on 64% shooting. Wow. The assists are low, which isn t surprising, and he should be looked at as more of a SG than a PG. But the 3s and steals are very welcome, and he s obviously a hot pickup. That said, Payton could be back in the fold very shortly. The Celtics will probably welcome him back if he wants to come back, but you have to wonder, should they? In their two games without him, with their new lineup featuring the rejuvenated Antoine Walker and West, they ve won tough road games at Utah and (an admittedly Steve Nash-less) Phoenix. It could be that this lineup of fresh legs is the way to go. Grab, West, hold on to Payton, but if The Glove comes back, I wouldn t be surprised to see them both have middling value at best. In his first game with C-Webb, Allen Iverson racked up 14 assists. The guy s just having a phenomenal year. If the 76ers can get past the Celtics for the Atlantic Division crown, it will be hard to deny him the MVP. Jason Kidd is #7 on the 30-Day Rater. He ll be one of the more interesting draft choices next year. He s obviously still worthy of a first-round pick, but how many people will be scared by his knee? A quiet week for Rafer Alston, both production-wise and blowup-wise. I m sure his owners will take it, though. Only 29.7 mpg in his last three isn t reason for concern, but it s a slightly interesting trend to watch. If you can buy low on Stephon Marbury right now, I d do it. The Knicks only have three guards on their active roster and one of those is the always-fragile Penny Hardaway. Expect Steph to see close to 40 mpg from here on out and to put up big numbers.

The Pistons are clicking on all cylinders. Wait, I didn t even mean for it to come out that way. Even if Shaq is completely healthy come conference finals time, the Pistons are looking like the team to beat in the East. Chauncey Billups continues his strong play and Carlos Arroyo is thriving in his backup role. The Pistons will have one of the best PG duos in the league over the next three years should they hold onto both of them. I suppose that technically Jeff McInnis is the PG in Cleveland, even though I talk about LeBron here all the time. But I mean, there s no news to report and it sure is a lot more fun to talk about LBJ than Jeff McInnis. Random LeBron thought of the day: I have one of these. I was thinking it d be going for more. Oh well. It was bittersweet seeing Kirk Hinrich lay it on my beloved Wiz on Friday night. Check out his mpg in the last six 42.8. Expect this to continue as the Bulls push not only for a playoff spot, but first round home-court advantage. He s still not getting as many assists as you d like, but he s going to be a stud from here on out. As for Chris Duhon, well he s seen 29.8 mpg in his last four, including three games of 30+. He s hitting open 3s, getting assists and a few steals. That said, he s #119 on the 15-Day Rater. Still, if you have PG games to make up, he s not a bad option. I do other things besides obsess fantasy basketball. In fact, I m in a band. (We both are, actually.) One thing I always have problems with is writing lyrics. Always drawing a blank. Maybe I ll write a song about how much I hate Jamaal Tinsley. The chorus could go, Day-to-day, why don t you just go away? Does that sound like a hit to you? Hmm, oh well. In any case, Tinsley is on the short list for most frustrating player in the league this year. Great numbers when he s out there, but he s absolutely killing his owners right now by being on the bench (not the IL), at a time in the season where most owners are cycling through all of their players in order to use their games in hand. It s really starting to look like he won t be a contributor the rest of the year. (Yes, I m trying reverse psychology. Yes, I realize that actually saying that means it won t work.) Anthony Johnson is still not an option he needs to play basically a perfect game just to be an average fantasy contributor. We re past the point of saying Mo Williams should be picked up. The question is who are his comparables as far as value for the rest of the season. BV pointed out his numbers earlier today, and they are tasty. Here s his deal: plenty of assists, very few 3s, average steals and scoring. Think normal Andre Miller for a good comp. If you need assists more than 3s, he s your man.

The Damon Jones binge continues. I like him better than Quentin Richardson for 3s from here on out. Gilbert Arenas got in one last monster game before Larry Hughes returns, going for 43/7/3 with 7 3s and 2 steals. Watching him and Mike Bibby duel was really a treat. There was also a Steve Blake sighting, which I couldn t let pass. In 34 minutes he went for 17/5/5 with 2 3s and a steal. It s all about opportunity, people. There s just not that much separating Blake from Dan Dickau. Remember when the Magic were one of the year s better stories? When they finish 37-45, four games out of the playoffs, those memories will be even more distant than they are now. Still, at least they re getting Jameer Nelson in there. I was clamoring for it, and in his first two starts he was good for 13.5/8.0/6.5 with 1 steal on 50% shooting. Now there s some talk that he creates bad defensive matchups and that his spot in the starting lineup isn t completely secure. Eh. I d still take my chances. I maintain he ll be a Jamaal Tinsley type, although it looks like he ll be more valuable on the boards and he might not his as many 3s as of yet (it took Tinsley a few years). Hopefully he won t inspire me to write hateful songs about him. Oh right, I didn t get him, so he won t. As for how this affects Steve Francis he s still the same incredibly overrated player he s always been. And now he ll have fewer assists. Brevin Knight has seen 30+ in two straight. You know what you re getting. He s like a rich man s Rick Brunson. Or something like that. Tyronn Lue alert! In his four games since returning from injury, he s received 36 minutes, and put up 15.3/2.8/7.0 with 0.5 steals and 1.0 3s. Solid, but a few things to notice: The assists are a bit high, expect him to be closer to 5. The 3s and steals are about right. He should be closer to 1.5 3s, but he s never been a top thief. He s seeing plenty of PT now, and should for the near future. But I ll echo the rest in thinking that those 13 year-old kids at the end of the Hawks bench might start taking his time as we get closer to April.

There s an emerging trend in San Antonio, and that s of Tony Parker being the secondary scoring option behind Tim Duncan. He averaged 20.4 ppg in February compared to Manu Ginobili s 16.5. Man is that PG situation in Dallas frustrating. After scoring 18 points in three games, Jason Terry goes off for 27 on Saturday. Don Nelson needs to keep him in the lineup, although it should be said that in Terry s two best games in February, the Mavs lost both times. That probably doesn t mean much. You have to stick with him and hope that maybe Brad Miller lays another one into Devin Harris, and Darrell Armstrong too, while he s at it. Although that would certainly upset this guy. It s just wrong, I tell you. Who s the one who s been yapping endlessly about Mike James all year? Me. Who snagged him the moment he got traded to Houston. BV. That stands for Bastard Verymuch. Hmm, I could have probably done better. Oh well. So out of all of the newly valuable PGs, it should come as no shock that I like James the best. Bob Sura s on the IL, Rod Strickland was given the boot, Andre Barrett s on the IL yeah, Moochie Norris and his hair are around, but this is James s show, and that was very evident as they put him in the starting lineup in his first game and he was good for 19/2/3 with 3 steals and 3 3s in 34 minutes. This is an especially good game, but he will be solid. Don t expect tons of assists, but the 3 and steals will be there. Until Sura gets back, he s got every chance to be as good as, say, Chucky Atkins. Remember, Atkins is the 62nd best player in the league this year, fantasy-wise. That s good. Ho-hum in Memphis. Jason Williams is the man, but you ll have to deal with games like Saturday when Earl Watson is the better player and J-Will gets only 23 minutes. I like Mike James more as long as Sura s out, unless you really need assists. We got our first look at post-trade deadline New Orleans and it wasn t pretty at all. That s a very Hubie-esque looking box score, with 10 guys seeing at least 14 minutes and no one logging more than 35. Dan Dickau stepped up with 22 points, 3 assists and 3 3s, but if you can sell high right now, you might want to try. He s playing for a contract, so you know he ll look to put up numbers, but his PT is in the hands of Byron Scott. As for Speedy Claxton, he might be able to salvage some value, but if they keep sharing time like that in the Big Easy, it will be tough for anyone to really distinguish themselves.

We re approaching 2,000 words. Sports Guy would be proud. My employer wouldn t be. Luke Ridnour is on the verge of uselessness. I guess you can throw out yesterday s game because it was a blowout early on, but that s still one decent game out of his last four. He s lucky Antonio Daniels has hit a rough patch as well. It s unlikely Ridnour will be removed from the starting lineup all season, but he s no Mike James. Sam Cassell has been every bit as frustrating as Jamaal Tinsley this year. Even more so. Sammy owners, I feel for ya. He s slowly working his way to the point where he can re-enter the starting lineup. With Latrell Sprewell looking like he might have finally turned it around (someone should fine me for saying that), if Sammy can come back the Wolves can make that push to get swept by the Spurs in the first round. Continue to be patient. But then again, what else can you do? You think Andre Miller was glad to see Earl Boykins banished to the bench. Maybe it s a mental thing. Boykins still saw almost 30 mpg off the bench, just slightly below what he was getting as a starter, but it still made all the difference in the world for Miller. Hopefully George Karl makes this a permanent change. It s best for everyone; even Boykins might hold his value. But probably not. He won t make it to the line 16 times every game. Yesterday was the first time Damon Stoudamire was held to single digits since Jan. 2. He s been over 20 only once in the past five games. Is his run over, or should you buy low? The minutes are still there, so I m buying (relatively) low. Keith McLeod should be a top point guard option from here on out. Ha, just making sure you re still paying attention this far in. You should be, I mean, is your job really any more exciting? Well, it s gotta be more exciting than the Jazz PG situation, at least.

Leandro Barbosa got plenty of PT with Steve Nash out (36.3 mpg), but didn t light it up, all things considered: 15.3/4.7/3.7 with 1.7 steals and 1 3. Very solid, but on the Suns it s easy to have high expectations. Since Nash is likely to miss a couple more games as we wind down, he s a good guy to have around for single game fill-ins. I always say how much I love Mike Bibby. No, not that like that. Not entirely like that, at least. He s always been better in real life than fantasy, but this is the year that s changed, and with Chris Webber taking his Monistat 7 to Philly, Bibby will be a total stud the rest of this year and next year and the year after, etc. He s #13 on the Rater, #4 in the last 30 Days and just might be a late-first rounder next year. Maybe. Chucky Atkins will be up and down with Kobe Bryant back, but his 3s will keep him valuable. Rick Brunson is fine for those of you who need assists, but he just doesn t shoot/score. He was getting a lot more 3s last time he saw lots of PT. Not this time. Poor man s Brevin Knight, right? And finally, the Warriors. Good to see Baron Davis out there. Hard to see him coming off the bench too much longer, and the Warriors probably want to keep his minutes down so as not to risk an injury in a meaningless season (insert Warriors meaningless season joke here), but he might want to show his new home crowd that he s still got it. Derek Fisher owners should get ready for the letdown. After averaging 43 mpg in his last four, he was back down to 33 last night. Still put up an awesome 19/4/2 with 3 steals and 3 3s, once his minutes slip into the 20s, his time will be up. That said, it s not like he isn t signed for another 5 years, so the Warriors might as well keep running him out there because like it or not, he s a part of their future. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php Utah Jazz Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:05:54 -0800 As the Point Guard Turns

Not too much to cover with the short week, but here s the rundown nonetheless.

The entire Atlantic division is pretty ho-hum when it comes to point guards. You know what to expect from Gary Payton, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Rafer Alston and Stephon Marbury. I can t see Kidd getting traded this week, but that s just me. Both him and Iverson are injury concerns the rest of the way, but with their teams fighting for playoff spots, expect them to tough it out.

The Pistons are really clicking right now, having won each of their past four games by at least 18 points. That s why Chauncey Billups PT is slightly down. He s hit 15 3s in those four games and is really on fire. He s above Ray Allen on the Player Rater. The only people higher than LeBron in assists on the Rater are Steve Nash and Marbury. Damn. It was good to see Kirk Hinrich participate in the Rookie/Soph game. The fact that he played far outweighs the fact that he missed all of his shots. He always misses all of his shots. He should be good to go for the stretch run, and I wouldn t be surprised to see him average 40 mpg. I d still avoid Chris Duhon, just like I d avoid most other players getting 25 mpg. Will Jamaal Tinsley be back tomorrow night? Who the hell knows? He s definitely at the point of believe it when I see it. It would be nice to think he ll be back to his productive self for the final 31 games, but there s just not much to support it. That said, I d avoid selling low. The Milwaukee situation looks like it won t change this year. If you grabbed Mike James during his hot stretch, it s probably safe to let go now.

Damon Jones owners sure hope the all-star break didn t cool him down. You have to think that his being snubbed for the 3-point contest helped contribute to the 23 3s he put in during the team s last four games. Keep an eye on Gilbert Arenas once Larry Hughes comes back. It was when Hughes went down that Gilbert really turned things on, so it will be interesting to see how Hughes s return affects his numbers. I would expect a slight hit, but he s still a top-15 player. Steve Francis finds himself at #17 on the Player Rater now, but at #23 when taking it by averages. He s clearly not a first-rounder anymore. Jason Hart got the start, but Brevin Knight got the minutes and the production on Wednesday. It looks like he s fine and will probably be back starting and worth using. Keep Hart on speed dial, though. The Hawks will be a team to watch. Whoa, that looks weird in print. Just for fantasy purposes of course, although now that everyone not just NBA Fastbreak regulars know about Josh Smith, they probably have more buzz than in many years. J-Smooth was seeing some time at the point earlier this year, and since Josh Childress certainly doesn t deserve to lose any PT with Al Harrington coming back, it will be interesting to see if the Hawks go back to that with Tyronn Lue still out. Nobody will be racking up too many assists, either way.

Tony Parker is at #47 on the Player Rater. It s looking like he ll be a top-4 round pick for many years. Just when we all thought Jason Terry was safe, Don Nelson strikes again. Terry saw just 24 and 25 minutes in the last two games, while Darrell Armstrong saw 23 and 20 and Devin Harris saw 31 and 18, just for good measure. Ugh. Stick with Terry and hope for the best. Might be a decent time to sell high on Bob Sura. It looks he s past his injury problems, which is good for his trade value, and if you need the help in 3s and steals you might be able to get a PG that will help more in those categories. Jason Williams was healthy enough to play in the last game of the break, so he s fine. Earl Watson still saw 30 minutes, but he has no value right now. Who the hell knows with Baron Davis? Same as Tinsley, we ll believe it when we see it. It goes without saying that I m stuck with both of these guys. It certainly doesn t seem like the Hornets or Davis are in any rush for him to return. As long as he's out, Dan Dickau is more than solid.

Luke Ridnour owners hated seeing him put up 2/2/3 in 24 minutes while Antonio Daniels went for 19/4/4 Wednesday. No more than 31 minutes for Ridnour in his last four. Prior to that he saw at least 33 minuets in 11 straight. Interesting. OK, so Troy Hudson s got nothing. Sam Cassell and his hamstring better be back in there soon. I maintain he ll be solid from here on out. Don t ask me why I feel that way. Andre Miller is in a major, major funk right now, hitting rock bottom with a 2/1/1 in the last game before the break. He just doesn t play as well with Earl Boykins in the lineup. Damon Stoudamire looks to be on his way to a second consecutive top 40 Player Rater finish. He might even sneak into the top 30. It ll be interesting to see where he ends up this offseason and it what type of role. Supposedly Raul Lopez will be ready to go after the break. We ll see. Keith McLeod should be back soon, too. We ll see. I d rather use Chris Duhon than any of the Jazz PGs.

Steve Nash and Gilbert Arenas are exactly tied on the Player Rater. I say Gilbert edges him out. But then again, Gilbert is my hero. Mike Bibby is just below AI and right above Steve Francis on the Rater. I say good things about him all the time and he deserves them. What s with his 75% free throw shooting this year, though? He was at 82, 86 and 80 the last three years. Chucky Atkins has averaged 41 minutes in the two games since Kobe Bryant has been back. This is fantastic news for his owners, as he s attempted 19 3s in those two games. Ah, Rick Brunson, back in effect. He s surely been grabbed by now, and with good reason, as the Clippers have no one to even back him up. They ll sign someone, and even if (when) it s no one you ve heard of, remember that when Darrick Martin came aboard earlier when Marko Jaric and Shaun Livingston were out, he took some time away from Brunson. Brunson will get plenty of assists, and you just have to hope he throws in some 3s and steals. The Warriors would be silly to take either Derek Fisher or Speedy Claxton out of the lineup when Troy Murphy returns. Silly, I tell you. Hopefully Mike Montgomery will do the right thing.

]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/as-the-point-guard-turns.php Utah Jazz Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:42:34 -0800 Defensive Stat One of the statistics I have been looking at a lot lately has been the on court off court defensive stats at the 82 games site. Many believe figuring out who are good defenders and who are not is almost impossible. I think its difficult, but not impossible. I believe the following on court off court defensive statistic is one of the best barrometers I have found to giving a fairly accurate account as to who can play defense and who can't. What the following stat shows is who gave up more points against the other team when they were on the court as compared to their own teamates when they were off the court. I have calculated the top 100 or so players in the NBA plus anyone who recieved more then two votes in the ALL NBA defensive team voting in any of the last 3 seasons. I think its a complete list of the best players and defenders. The list is for the last 3 years starting with 3 years ago and finishing with their average for the last 3 seasons combined.

1-Tim Duncan-------///-9.0///-5.5///-8.2=-7.6
2-Theo Ratliff--------///-7.6///-6.9///-5.4=-6.6
3-Jeff Foster---------///-2.3///-8.8///-8.3=-6.5
4-Rasheed Wallace---///-6.8///-4.3///-8.0=-6.4
5-Bruce Bowen-------///-6.6///-4.5///-5.4=-5.5
6-Kevin Garnett------///-9.6///-6.5///+0.1=-5.3
7-Dirk Nowitzki-------///-5.7///-1.4///-6.0=-4.4
8-Kelvin Cato---------///-3.3///-4.8///-4.8=-4.3
9-Andre Kirilenko-----///+3.1///-2.5//-12.7=-4.0
10-Ron Artest---------///-1.6///-4.0///-5.6=-3.7
11-Antonio Davis------///-2.8///-2.0///-5.3=-3.4
12-Ben Wallace--------///-3.1///-3.0///-3.9=-3.3
13-Dikembe Mutumbo-///-0.4///-1.2///-8.3=-3.3
14-Shane Battier-------///-1.5///-1.4///-6.0=-3.0
15-Bobby Simmons----///****///-4.2///-1.7=-3.0
16-Brad Miller---------///+0.8///-5.5///-2.9=-2.5
17-Ray Allen-----------///-3.7///+1.0///-4.5=-2.4
18-Kirk Hinrich--------///****///-3.7///-0.9=-2.3
19-Larry Hughes-------///+1.5///-2.9///-5.5=-2.3
20-Reggie Miller-------///+1.2///-6.7///-1.3=-2.3
21-Roberty Horry------///-5.1///-0.8///-0.6=-2.2
22-Jason Kidd----------///+5.0///-6.1///-4.5=-1.9
23-Baron Davis---------///-3.3///-4.6///+2.3=-1.9
24-Bobby Jackson------///-2.4///-1.3///-1.5=-1.7
25-Jermaine Oneal-----///-0.5///-3.7///+1.6=-1.5
26-Tyson Chandler-----///+0.7///-3.8///-0.9=-1.3
27-Michael Finley------///-5.9///-2.2///+4.7=-1.3
28-Kenyon Martin-----///-0.6///-5.2///+2.1=-1.2
29-Eddie Jones---------///-1.3///-0.3///-2.0=-1.2
30-Shaq Oneal---------///+0.8///-3.9///-0.6=-1.2
31-Kobe Bryant--------///-0.6///+0.7///-3.3=-1.1
32-Elton Brand---------///-0.9///+3.9///-4.7=-0.8
33-Doug Christie-------///+1.0///+1.9///-5.2=-0.8
34-Andre Igoudala-----///****///****///-0.8=-0.8
35-Chris Bosh----------///****///+3.4///-4.7=-0.7
36-Josh Howard--------///****///+1.2///-2.3=-0.6
37-Emeka Okafor-------///****///****///-0.6=-0.6
38-Brian Grant----------///+2.6///-0.3///-4.1=-0.6
39-Vince Carter---------///-2.0///+1.8///-1.7=-0.6
40-Nazr Mohammed----///+1.5///-0.7///-2.6=-0.6
41-Manu Ginobili--------///+2.5///+3.4///-7.5=-0.5
42-Rchard Jefferson-----///+0.8///-0.9///-1.0=-0.4
43-Paul Pierce-----------///-0.4///-0.1///-0.8=-0.4
44-Darrell Armstrong---///+2.5///-1.8///-2.0=-0.4
45-Q Richardson--------///-2.5///+0.8///+0.5=-0.4
46-Steve Francis--------///+0.9///-1.9///+0.2=-0.3
47-Eric Snow------------///-1.1///-0.6///+0.7=-0.3
48-Hydayet Turkoglu---///+1.1///-2.5///+2.2=-0.3
49-Jamal MaGloire------///+1.0///+1.3///-2.6=-0.1
50-Raef Lafrentz--------///+3.0///-4.8///+1.6=-0.1
51-Zyd Ilgauskas--------///-4.0///+4.0///-0.1=-0.0
52-Jamal Tinsley--------///+4.6///-5.3///+0.7=-0.0
53-Tony Parker---------///-2.5///+4.1///-1.2=+0.1
54-Latrell Sprewell------///+4.5///-0.8///-3.3=+0.1
55-Tayshawn Prince----///+4.3///+0.9///-4.6=+0.2
56-Keith Van Horn------///+0.2///+0.8///-0.1=+0.3
57-Rueben Patterson----///+1.2///-1.3///+1.2=+0.4
58-Alonzo Morning------///****///+2.9///-2.1=+0.4
59-Mehmet Okur--------///-0.4///-1.7///+3.2=+0.4
60-Grant Hill------------///+1.7///****///-0.8=+0.5
61-Chauncey Billups-----///+3.5///+1.0///-2.7=+0.6
62-Dwight Howard------///****///****///+0.7=+0.7
63-Antawn Jamison-----///+4.8///+0.4///-2.4=+0.9
64-Jason Terry----------///+0.1///+4.1///-1.6=+0.9
65-James Posey----------///+1.2///-0.1///+1.9=+1.0
66-PJ Brown--------------///+5.7///-4.5///+2.7=+1.3
67-Kurt Thomas----------///-0.9///+2.1///+2.9=+1.4
68-Rip Hamilton----------///+3.3///+3.7///-2.7=+1.4
69-Carlos Boozer----------///+6.6///-0.6///-1.9=+1.4
70-Yao Ming--------------///+2.6///-1.6///+3.4=+1.5
71-Troy Murphy----------///+1.4///-0.1///+3.8=+1.7
72-Dewayne Wade--------///****///-1.4///+4.9=+1.8
73-Al Harrington----------///-2.5///+9.2///-1.4=+1.8
74-Lebron James---------///****///+5.2///-1.4=+1.9
75-Wally Z----------------///+3.1///-3.9///+6.4=+1.9
76-Cutino Mobley---------///+1.4///+1.9///+3.5=+2.3
77-Zach Randolph---------///+5.8///+2.0///-2.3=+2.3
78-Sam Cassell------------///+10.0//-1.7///-0.9=+2.5
79-Shawn Marion---------///+5.2///+1.2///+1.5=+2.6
80-Gilbert Arenas---------///+5.8///+4.2///-1.9=+2.7
81-Allen Iverson----------///+5.1///+0.9///+2.5=+2.8
82-Chris Webber----------///+3.6///-0.4///+5.3=+2.8
83-Mike Miller------------///+3.2///+3.9///+1.3=+2.8
84-Joe Johnson------------///+2.3///+1.4///+4.7=+2.8
85-Drew Gooden----------///+0.7///+6.6///+1.0=+2.8
86-Lamar Odom-----------///+4.6///+2.1///+2.2=+3.0
87-Antonio Daniels---------///+2.7///+2.3///+4.4=+3.1
88-Amare Stoudemire-----///+3.5///+2.2///+4.0=+3.2
89-Mike Bibby-------------///+5.7///+5.8///-1.9=+3.2
90-Steve Nash------------///+4.3///+3.1///+2.3=+3.2
91-Marcus Camby---------///+6.3///+1.4///+2.4=+3.4
92-Peja Stojacovic---------///+7.1///+2.5///+0.6=+3.4
93-Stephon Marbury------///+7.8///+1.9///+0.9=+3.5
94-Cliff Robinson----------///+3.1///+2.0///+5.6=+3.6
95-Desmond Mason--------///+5.4///-2.6///+8.1=+3.6
96-Jason Richardson-------///+7.3///-1.1///+5.0=+3.7
97-Carmelo Anthony------///****///+5.9///+1.4=+3.7
98-Andre Miller-----------///+8.2///+0.5///+2.8=+3.8
99-Gary Payton-----------///+5.2///+1.8///+4.7=+3.9
100-Rashard Lewis--------///+6.4///+2.1///+3.2=+3.9
101-Tracy McGrady-------///+6.4///+2.4///+3.4=+4.1
102-Matt Harpring--------///+3.1///+1.4///+8.5=+4.3
103-Corey Maggette-------///+6.2///+1.2///+5.7=+4.4
104-Jeff McCinnis----------///+8.4///+2.2///+4.7=+5.1
105-Michael Redd----------///+3.3///+9.1///+5.6=+6.0
106-Antoine Walker--------///+0.6///+4.6//+13.8=+6.3
107-Pau Gasol--------------///+10.8//+8.2///-0.4=+6.5

I am not saying this statistic is perfect or totally accurate. One common sense flaw is a team that has great starting defenders and a bench of bad defenders would skew any player on the team depending on whether they are a starter or backup. A great example of this is Manu Ginobili with the Spurs. He came off the bench his first two seasons so didn't play that much with Duncan or Bowen and his numbers were a weak +2.5 and +3.4. This year he starts with those two and he gets a -7.5. So who a player plays with can effect this stat. However, most players play with their teamates quite a bit eventually and 3 seasons is ussually going to have every player play with tons of different players and lineups so it will even out to some degree.

The 4 Mav players are interesting. Of course its great to see Dirk ranked in the top 10 of this stat. Eventually the media will have to start to accept the gathering evidence. Some may take issue with Fin ranked 27th. However, if you look closer you will see that Fin has a bad +- this season. Most of his points were gained 3 seasons ago. Remember, this stat is saying who were good for the last 3 seasons combined. I think Fins numbers show the accuracy of this stat more then anything. Josh is in nice shape at 36 and improving. And Jason Terry is a poor but not horrible 64th. A little below average.

Of the top 38 players on the list, I would call only Brad Miller, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Michael Finley, and Chris Bosh less then "very good" defenders. To have 33 of the top 38 players be "very good" or better defenders is very impressive IMO. And I would have called Fin very good 3 seasons ago. Reggie Millers numbers are skewed by his season two years ago when he was injured and played very little, so his -6.7 that season is probably very misleading. As for Brad Miller, Ray Allen, and Chris Bosh, maybe they are a little better then I thought.

As for those ranked in the bottom 25, only Gary Payton, Cliff Robinson, and Marcus Camby I would have called even "good" defenders. And Payton and Robinson are getting extremely old. Maybe they are more cooked then we think. So the only player that really surprised me was Camby. And his numbers are skewed by his +6.3 3 seasons ago when he played very little and so that stat and his ranking might be misleading.

Let me simply ask why Dirk is ranked so high in this stat? Where is the flaw in his ranking? I can't find any. He ussually starts with some real lousy defenders, which should hurt his stat. This year he is starting with Damp and Howard and occasionally he has started with Bradley in the past. However, he hasn't had much help starting with him the last 3 seasons. Bradley, Najera, Bell, and Josh Howard mostly came off the bench. And shouldn't the Mav tempo be higher when Dirk is on the court? So the other team should score more because of that shouldn't they?

All I know is when Duncan and Ratliff are ranked 1-2 and Gasol and Walker are dead last, I think its probably a solid defensive rating system. And Dirk is ranked 7th for the last 3 seasons combined. ]]> http://www.hooplog.com/nba/defensive-stat.php http://www.hooplog.com/nba/defensive-stat.php Players Sun, 20 Feb 2005 16:00:43 -0800