HOOPLOG: Brendan Haywood

Center of Attention

Sun, 15 Jan 2006 19:41:34 -0800

Thought I’d throw up a special weekend column, since I’m not sure I’ll have one for tomorrow since it’s a holiday and all. Before we get into the situations to pay attention to, I thought we should check in on some of the centers who recently won starting jobs and were popular pick ups over the past couple weeks. I expressed skepticism about all of them for various reasons, and for the most part it looks like it was pretty well-founded.

Francisco Elson: 7.8/6.7/0.6, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 55% (31-of-56), 28.9 mpg in 9 starts

Ike Diogu: 9.4/4.5/0.9, 0.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 62% (28-of-45), 24.1 mpg in 8 starts

Eddie Griffin: 6.6/6.0/0.7, 0.4 steals, 2.6 blocks, 0.3 3s, 43% (24-of-56), 22.4 mpg in 9 starts

I know that centers are tough to come by in deep, two-center leagues, but there’s still just not a lot of value up there. Elson is the only one getting acceptable minutes, but even his 29 per game might be considered a disappointment considering that not just Marcus Camby, but also Kenyon Martin, has been out for the majority of those nine games. He’s doing about what I expected him to do – basically a Rasho Nesterovic impersonation – and while he’s not been an embarrassment, those who were hoping for 12 and 8 with close to 2 blocks per game just had unreasonable expectations. Diogu has proven to be a stud in FG%, but if he can’t be on the court enough to take even 6 shots per game, he won’t be able to help you all that much. He’s nowhere close to an asset in any other category. As for Griffin, have more typestrokes been unnecessarily wasted on a single player?

Three Situations to Pay Attention To
Los Angeles Lakers
After just writing about how much space has been wasted writing about Eddie Griffin, it seems pretty silly to follow that up by writing about Kwame Brown. As much as we want to call Griffin a disappointment and a tease, it doesn’t even begin to compare to Kwame. But there seems to be a recent shift in Kwame’s game and might be making him a more reliable – if one-dimensional – fantasy option. In his fifth season in the league, Kwame has shown an extremely limited offensive game. His touch around the basket hasn’t developed at all, and while his jumper looks decent at times, he’s never been able to hit it with any consistency. Phil Jackson seems to have realized that – and maybe Kwame has as well – and isn’t asking Kwame to score. Last night’s 18-point “breakout” game was the first time since Nov. 14 that Kwame attempted 10 shots in a game. He’s been recast as someone who’s main duty is to attack the boards, especially on the offensive end. Brown averaged 1.9 offensive boards per game in November, 2.5 per game in December, and is up to 3.3 per game so far in January. The fact that many of his shots are coming off these offensive rebounds is helping his FG%. In six games since re-entering the starting lineup, he’s shooting 54%. Here’s his overall line in those six starts:

8.8/8.2/1.0, 0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 54% (21-of-39)

It’s pretty comparable to most of those “hot” pickups listed above, but without that secondary category to help out in. Although Brown has no steals in those six games, that’s the one category he’s most likely to offer some help in. He averaged nearly a steal per game while seeing 30 mpg in 03-04, which is pretty decent for a big man. If he remains in the starting lineup he could average somewhere around 0.8 steals and blocks per game, which isn’t spectacular, but isn’t terrible. Expecting any consistency from Kwame is probably pretty foolish at this point. A game like last night’s is still the exception, not the rule. But if he can keep pounding the boards and converting some of those putbacks, he might be able to emerge as something better than just another Reggie Evans.

Indiana Pacers
Let’s take a look at Jeff Foster’s line so far in January:

7.3/9.4/0, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 61% (22-of-36)

Again, not too different from the lines of those Elson/Diogu/Griffin group. Foster is quite similar – and the exact opposite – of Kwame Brown. Like Brown, he seems to be a one-category helper who is pretty consistent in that one category, but doesn’t have much of a shot of helping out elsewhere. Unlike Kwame, Foster seems to be getting the most out of his talent while Brown is getting only a portion. Foster’s upside is extremely limited – he will not score, he will not get blocks. But if you want a boost in rebounds – and only rebounds – he is probably one of the best guys you can grab. I’m not at all a fan of one category specialists because they leave you with holes in too many other categories, but situations get dicey sometimes, especially at center. I thought I was in the perfect situation earlier this year with Yao Ming and Rasheed Wallace, with a very capable backup on the bench in Brendan Haywood. Then Yao went down and Haywood became completely ineffective right around the same time. I ended up dumping Haywood, because he just wasn’t worth using. Since I’m in a daily changes, cumulative roto league, I decided to simply take the beating at center and go way under my projected games limit rather than try my luck with the dregs available on the waiver wire. My strategy is to use quality games when you have them. Right now I have a lot of point guards playing well, so I’ll go over the projected pace there and make a trade from there at a later date, even if it means not getting the best return. But in weekly H2H leagues, this strategy doesn’t work. So guys like Foster might be the best option available. And if you’re strong in blocks thanks to non-centers like Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion or Paul Gasol, Foster can at least give you the boards you need from a center. He’s averaging 9.9 rpg in his last seven contests, and that’s in just 24.4 mpg. With Jermaine O’Neal iffy, he might see even more time. Foster’s no savior, but at least you know what you’ll be getting.

Dallas Mavericks
Did someone in your league pick up DeSagana Diop yesterday? It happened in my league, and I’ll admit I was about to make the move myself and was beaten to the punch by about five minutes. I’m not going to lose too much sleep over it, but man, I sure could have used that help in blocks. There’s no denying that Diop is a blocks machine – he’s second in the league blocks per minute, averaging 2.0 bpg in just over 17 minutes, which is rather ridiculous. But the big question is this – even with his ascent to the starting lineup, how much more playing time will Diop actually receive? In last night’s game he saw just 20 minutes, although it’s hard to read too much into that since the game was over early and Adrian Griffin was the only player in the game to play more than 30 minutes. One of the many problems with Diop early in his career was his total lack of conditioning, and while he’s gotten better, it’s hard for someone to start consistently playing more than he ever has and to do it at a high level. This is Diop’s fifth season in the league and he’s played more than 30 minutes in a game a grand total of two times. This is one of the same arguments I made against Al Jefferson even after he joined the starting lineup and he hasn’t broken the 30-minute mark at all in 8 starts. Avery Johnson hasn’t given up on Erick Dampier yet, and this could be one of those old-fashioned “motivation” benchings, although it might take more than that to motivate a guy who’s going to get paid $53 million over the next five seasons no matter what.

Some people want to think of Diop as a poor man’s Ben Wallace, but a homeless, penniless Ben Wallace might be more like it. Like Wallace, Diop can help out in steals; he averages 1.3 steals per 40 over his career, which isn’t bad at all for a center. Unfortunately, he also shares Big Ben’s inability to put the ball in the basket. While he’s shooting 45% this season, he’s a career 37% shooter. And it would be a miracle if he could ever get his FT% up to 50%. While he won’t shoot nearly enough in either category to hurt you too much, it’s still worth noting. The Mavs are an extremely deep team. They don’t need to have a center out there at all times, as they can get by with Dirk Nowitzki at the five for stretches. The Mavs need Diop to be at his most energetic whenever he’s out there, so it’s probably not in their best interests to have him out there for 32-35 mpg. Grab him, stash him, start him if you need him, but if there’s one lesson that his column should make you realize, it’s that finding serious help at center on the waiver wire is almost always more fantasy than reality.

Comet Gain
Chris Kaman – Wow. Just, wow. Not only a top center, but a dominant overall force the past couple weeks. Might not last when Elton Brand returns, but he’s looking more and more like a legit #1 center.

Samuel Dalembert – Like Kaman, not just a top center lately, but an absolutely dominant force. He’s not missing – including from the line – and he’s swatting away everything in sight (which unfortunately for the 76ers means many obvious goaltends). His 37 mpg so far in January is huge for a center.

Ben Wallace – The old Big Ben is back; 13.8 boards and 2.7 blocks so far in January. Now about that 29% from the free throw line in that span…

The Hold Steady
Rasheed Wallace – Has slowed down a bit, his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired from a C, but he’ll keep raining in those 3s and getting the blocks.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s staying healthy, he’s hitting his shots, and is more than respectable on the boards and in blocks. A steadying force in the middle.

Brad Miller – A couple of down games recently, but he’s still one of the top 30 or so fantasy players in the league.

The Fall
Shaquille O’Neal – You knew you were punting free throws; but 15/10 with just 1 block per game in January leaves a lot to be desired.

Brendan Haywood – Back in the starting lineup after a two-game absence, but still too inconsistent to be counted on.

Joel Przybilla – Nothing more than a blocks specialist now that Theo Ratliff is on a run of good health.

I’ll do my very best to answer any relevant big man questions in the comments here, so feel free to ask away on guys not mentioned (or mentioned) here.

Butler is Inserted Into Starting Lineup

Thu, 22 Dec 2005 16:23:46 -0800

"Washington Wizards Coach Eddie Jordan shook up his starting lineup and reserve rotation Wednesday night by making Caron Butler a starter along with Gilbert Arenas, Jared Jeffries, Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood," writes Ivan Carter of THE WASHINGTON POST.

Yao What Do I Do?

Thu, 22 Dec 2005 16:23:36 -0800

So I had a strategy this year going into the draft. It was pretty simple – draft players who were likely to play 80 games, take the best player available over the first 6-7 rounds but also make sure to get two solid centers so I wouldn’t have to play the dreaded “Find a Second Center” game, and do not ignore percentages. It worked pretty well, I think. In a 12-team league I got Dirk-Yao-Pau-Kirk-Cuttino-Sheed-Rip with my first seven picks. I felt that with those picks guys I had seven guys who would stay in my lineup all season, and that included two centers and two guys with an outside shot at qualifying at center.

So you can imagine my frustration now that Yao is going to miss approximately six weeks with a booboo on his big toe. First off, I don’t doubt that the big man is in pain, as when you are 7’6” and nearly 300 pounds, your feet have a lot of weight on them. But the thing is, Yao was playing his best ball of the season right before he got hurt. His last three games before sitting down he was averaging 26/11/1 on 62% from the field on 15 shots per game and 85% from the line at nearly 9 attempts per game. His blocks had been disappointing all season, but you can’t complain about those other numbers. If he had been putting up 14/6 on 43% shooting over five games before going down, then maybe I’d comprehend it a bit more. But as it is, it just doesn’t make sense.

So now I’m stuck without my #2 draft pick for at least a month. Lots of you are in similar situations, if not with Yao then with many of the other guys fighting injuries. So what to do? Don’t freak out. Stick with your strategy. You did have a strategy, right? For all the advice we give on guys who make hot pickups and all that, my team has remained pretty much in tact the entire season. With Eddie Jones and Marquis Daniels as my only SF, I needed some help there so I dumped Daniels this morning (with Josh Howard and Jason Terry back in full force, there’s simply not enough production to go around I feel) for James Jones, who should be able to help me out in 3s when he moves back into the starting lineup. That was just my fourth roster move of the season.

Yao leaves a big hole for me at center, but I kept Brendan Haywood around for this specific reason. This was another part of the strategy – don’t be left without a quality backup at the key positions, those obviously being PG and C. Haywood’s no star, obviously, but he certainly qualifies as a quality backup. His PT is a bit volatile, swinging between 20 and 30 minutes per night, but he does what you want a fill-in center to do: hit a high percentage of his shots and block some shots. His 57% from the field should come down a bit, but he is a 53% career shooter, so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off. A good number of his shot attempts are layups/dunks/follows. And at 2.0 blocks per game, there are only 14 guys better than him there. What you want from injury fill-ins is to not lose ground. Everyone team in your league will suffer through injuries at some point during the season, and how they deal with them will go a long way towards determining who will end up at the top of the standings.

One thing I certainly won’t be doing is making a panic deal for another center. If you play in a league with people that pay attention, most people will see someone with Yao on their team and think that they’ll be able to gouge that owner for an extra center. The odds just aren’t in my favor in a situation like this. Would I love to someone like Jermaine ONeal manning my other center spot instead of Brendan Haywood? Of course. But to get him I’d have to deal from another strength, and then you invariably end up creating more holes for yourself. Basically, I go with under-management as opposed to over-management as a general rule. That is, as long as you have good players.

And I suppose I should address the Rockets frontcourt situation. As one helpful, anonymous commenter pointed out, Stromile Swift did indeed get nutted by Chris Bosh last night, which led to his receiving the same PT as Lonny Baxter. If Stro has recovered he should be back in the starting lineup as long as Dikembe Mutombo is out. But unless he really explodes, it’s hard to see Van Gundy sticking with him as a starter when Mutombo comes back. The Rockets were having enough trouble outscoring anyone with Yao, so without him they’ll need to be even tougher on D, and even in his second century in the league, Mutombo is still a solid defensive presence. If you are willing to use a roster spot on someone who will help you in blocks while killing you in every other category except rebounds, have fun with Mutombo. As for Juwan Howards … he’s just so boring. He just doesn’t help you anywhere – his per 40 numbers are .7 steals, .1 blocks and 0 3s. He’s shot exactly 45% from the field the past three years, so you know what to expect there. He’ll basically need to go for 21 and 12 like he did last game every night to have even mediocre value.

That should do it for me for a few days, at least in terms of posted content. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

The Truth Is Out, Part 2

Tue, 01 Nov 2005 09:39:57 -0800

So BV did his draft recap and now it’s my turn. Like he said, we start 10 players (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UT, UT), with three bench spots, 12 teams. So it’s a pretty deep league, and it’s very competitive. Hard to slip sleepers past these guys. Guys like Zaza Pachulia, Marquis Daniels, Eddie Griffin, Mike James, etc. were all gone by the 9th round, for example. My strategy going in was to heed my rankings, take the best player available with most picks, not get too hung up on positions, and not to ignore percentages, which always seem to give me problems. Let’s see how I did.

1st Round (4th overall): Dirk Nowitzki, PF
I was hoping that Marion would fall to me, but he went #3. It’s hard to complain about Dirk, and if continues to trade in a few 3s for a few more blocks, I’ll take it. He’s 27, clearly in his prime, clearly the top option on a perennially high scoring team, and he set career highs in blocks, assists and points last year. I’m banking on a repeat. I was tempted to take Kobe, and even a little tempted to shock the world and take Kirilenko, but in the end Dirk was the obvious choice.

2nd Round (21st overall): Yao Ming, C
I told my dad the day before that draft that if Yao was there for me at 21 I would take him, and I stuck to my word. Even in his “disappointing” season last year he finished 17th on the player rater, and he seems bound to take a leap forward this year, if he can continue to improve his game and his minutes per game by 3 or 4, which is a distinct possibility. I certainly liked him more than Jermaine O’Neal, and I was thought about Vinsanity and Mike Bibby, but a dominant center in the second round without reaching was too good to pass up.

3rd Round (28th overall): Pau Gasol, PF
I deliberated a whole lot here. Gasol was the highest person left on my board, but I’ve drafted him the past two years and have been burned before, by a frustrating rotation and injuries. And did I really want to go with three big men with my first three picks, after I preach about PGs so much? In the end I decided to trust myself and go with Gasol. All three players so far are big men with very solid percentages and Gasol, like Ming, seems likely to increase his effectiveness and playing time as he enters his prime and will be the featured player on a thinned-out Memphis squad. His foot problems are a concern, but I went with him over Bosh, Joe Johnson and Rashard Lewis.

4th Round (45th overall): Kirk Hinrich, G
I was absolutely thrilled to get Captain Kirk near the end of the fourth round. He was my highest ranked player left and I desperately needed a top flight PG. The next four picks – Boozer, Camby, Redd, Parker – show what a drop-off there was. Kirk’s FG% is rather brutal, but I’m hoping those first three guys could help offset it.

5th Round (52nd overall): Cuttino Mobley, SG
The middle rounds are always the toughest, and my strategy was to not give in to hype and to instead draft players who I felt would be sure-thing, solid contributors all season. Mobley may have been a bit of a reach, but he has a history of playing 40 mpg and he could very well see that on a thin Clippers team. And you know he’ll be launching his share of 3s, as well. I was strongly considering Lamar Odom, but figured I had plenty of boards and could use a gunner.

6th Round (69th overall): Rasheed Wallace, FC
Another steady, unspectacular pick. Rasheed has a solid all-around game and the fact that he qualifies at center means that I don’t have to worry about depending on one of those “who the hell knows?” guys that ended up going in the next few rounds. His percentages are rather weak, and he might have some clashes with Flip Saunders, but his track record shows steady production and good health. I might very well regret not going with Rafer Alston or Donyell Marhsall at this spot.

7th Round (76th overall): Richard Hamilton, SG
The ultimate safe pick. I’m not a huge fan of Rip’s fantasy game, but in the 7th round it’s hard to argue. I often overlook points, and Rip is always a nice source. He’s another great free throw shooter, and even if he doesn’t match his 5 apg of last year, he should be a solid contributor (see a theme developing?) there. He’s another person who you can leave in the lineup and not worry about, and I think my first seven picks, while lacking in flashiness are extremely solid.

8th Round (93rd overall): Mark Jaric, G
Here’s where you can start going for riskier picks. Or, at least that’s what I’m saying in retrospect. I don’t love this pick, at all. I’m a huge fan of Jaric’s potential, but he’s always hurt and depending on him as my #2 PG has disaster written all over it. If he stays healthy, I’m rather confident this pick will be a steal, but that’s very iffy. His high assist rate might also drop since Minnesota runs its offense through KG.

9th Round (100th overall): Josh Childress, GF
On the other hand, I was thrilled to land Childress in the 9th round. He was actually the only player that I’ve hyped up this season that ended up on my team. He was almost a top 50 player in the second half of last season, and can help in just about every category. Tayshaun Prince went three rounds earlier and I think Childress will end up with the better numbers at the end of the year.

10th Round (117th overall): Eddie Jones, GF
BV hates this pick, but I stand by it. If he was able to finish 52nd on the rater last season when he averaged nearly five points less than he had the past few seasons, he looks to have a slight resurgence in Memphis where he will be looked to as one of the main options behind Gasol. He had a horrid preseason, but this is one of those cases where I’ll take the 10 years of stats over the few preseason games. If he turns out to be a total bust, it’s only a 10th rounder.

11th Round (124th overall): Brendan Haywood, C
OK, this was a pure homer pick, I admit. Brendan is my girlfriend’s favorite player and I figured by having him on my team, I just bought myself a good 40-50 extra hours of basketball watching this season, at least. And for a third center, he’s not so bad, and it’s always nice to have a player on your favorite team to root for. It was the 11th round – Juan Dixon, Lorenzen Wright and Charlie Villanueva were the next three picks – I feel fine about this. That said, it came down to him and Mike Dunleavy and if I wasn’t a Maryland grad who was a Wizards fan, we know who I would have picked. I hope this one doesn’t haunt me.

12th Round (141st overall): T.J. Ford, PG
This one really upset BV, who cried shenanigans since I have not spoken well of Ford at all here on FBB. But hey, player value is all relative – in the 12th round, with Hinrich and Jaric as my only two PGs, I feel this is a strong pick. I still think Mo Williams is just as good of a player, at least this season, and Ford is a major injury risk, but I needed the depth.

13th Round (148th overall): Mike Sweetney, PF
With my last pick I decided to go with someone with some decent upside but also someone I wouldn’t mind jettisoning early on. Each year the waiver wire offers a few players who emerge in the first few weeks of the season that turn out to be quite valuable and you have to be ready to pounce on them. With news that Sweetney will be coming off the bench initially, and knowing that Scott Skiles can be downright Sloan/Hubie Brown-ish when it comes to rotations, Sweetney might be packing his bags soon.

So there’s my team. I think that it’s pretty (here comes that word) solid top to bottom. My top four picks are all young and in their primes, and the rest of my squad is a good mix of established vets and young, but not necessarily green, players. I don’t have any one-category studs and instead am relying on a group effort to put me at the top of most categories. I’m admittedly thin at point guard, but you know that I’m always ready to rotate through the flavor of the week at that position.

Thoughts on who has the better squad, myself of BV???

Enjoy the first games of the season tonight. Go Dirk!

Overall Rankings: 91 to 120

Thu, 20 Oct 2005 17:00:35 -0800

1 to 30
31 to 60
61 to 90

91. Jamaal Tinsley – The ultimate tease; few can match his 3s/steals/assists combo, but he plain cannot shoot or stay healthy.
92. Eddie Jones – Certainly on the downside of his career, but can handle lots of minutes and hit 3s with the best.
93. Al Harrington – Won’t ever have a huge breakout like some had hoped, but should be solid as long as minutes are there.
94. Morris Peterson – See above.
95. Gerald Wallace – His big numbers (for his position) in steals and blocks will do a lot to offset his seriously lackluster shooting.
96. Ricky Davis – He’ll start, yes, but averaged 33 mpg last year and wasn’t anything all that special.
97. Sam Cassell – Could be a disaster, but Livingston is young and injury-prone; can’t forget how consistently awesome Sam was the three years before last.
98. Mike James – As long as he’s starting, he’ll be well worth using.
99. Mike Sweetney – Needs to lock down starting job, but will be a rebound/FG% monster if he does.
100. Sebastian Telfair – If he could shoot the 3 he’d be better, but 6.7 apg and 1.4 spg in April make him an OK option.
101. Mehmet Okur – As always, potential is there, but he’s usually frustrating to own with Sloan getting much of the blame.
102. Joel Przybilla – Ask the folks who drafted Mark Blount and Samuel Dalembert last year how reliable big men who finish strong are.
103. J.R. Smith – Hasn’t shown he can do anything but shoot a bunch of 3s; don’t go crazy with the kids.
104. Troy Murphy – We’re never too high on non-hustle stat guys, but if the Warriors run enough he should have some value.
105. Ben Gordon – Have to think he’ll break into the starting lineup eventually; still is a pretty one-dimensional player.
106. Raja Bell – Someone will probably jump the gun thinking he’ll replicate JoeJohn’s numbers from last year; that’s quite unlikely, but he should be solid.
107. Al Jefferson – Pick him up in January after the guy who drafted him too early gets frustrated and drops him.
108. P.J. Brown – Keeps on plugging away; needs to get that FG% back up to around 47%, but will be underrated as usual.
109. Wally Szczerbiak – His strong percentages make him worth having around, especially if he can get back up to 15 shots per game.
110. Nenad Krstic – Another one of those strong-finish big men to be wary of, especially since he doesn’t block many shots.
111. Brendan Haywood – OK, a bit of a homer pick, but it’s not unreasonably to expect 2 bpg with very nice boards and FG%.
112. Erick Dampier – He might be interested, he might not. His 12/12 with 2 blocks from a couple years is hard to ignore, but honestly, you probably should.
113. Eddy Curry – All of the big men in this batch have major questions, so just pick one you like. Could be an offensive force, but don’t expect any rebounds or blocks all of a sudden.
114. Jameer Nelson – He seems to be buried right now, just can’t understand why; 14.9/4.0/4.6 with 1.5 spg and 1.2 3pg after the break shows he’s more than ready.
115. Bonzi Wells – Is slated for lots of PT, but doesn’t have the greatest game and can get on coaches’ bad sides quickly.
116. Theo Ratliff – Even in a very off year averaged 2.5 bpg; if Przybilla isn’t for real should get a chance to reclaim his starting job.
117. Darius Miles – Perennial tease, but Portland is very thin this year and he does get a decent number of steals and blocks for his position.
118. Eddie Griffin – Yet another perennial tease, but he can be very effective with only 25-28 mpg.
119. Raymond Felton – We think he’ll get there eventually…
120. Brevin Knight – But until then, these two are going to hurt each other’s value.

Eastern Conference Preview - South East Division

Tue, 27 Sep 2005 17:00:33 -0800

Miami Heat

What can anyone say about a team with Shaquille O'Neal and Dwayne Wade? Of course the Heat will be the favorites to go to the NBA finals.

As great as the Heat were last season, look at what they have done in the off season. They acquired Jason Williams and James Posey from the Grizzlies, signed free agent Antoine Walker and now solidified their bench with the *gulp* veteran Gary Payton. That's right, if you read the Atlantic division preview, the HEX is still on. Actually the HEX is on for two reasons, the "glove" just adds to the old HEX i put on Alonzo Mourning for being sick, too sick to play in Toronto, but not sick enough to hang from Shaq's nuts like Payton is. Good thing Shaq's got two, right?

Is there another guard capable of taking the spotlight off of Lebron James? Dwayne Wade may be the only one right now, in the way that he cuts to the basket and plays defense with no fear and no regard for his own body.

Shaquille O'Neal must look at this year as the year to take it all again. O'Neal is definitely on his way down, his skills are going to erode rather quickly as they usually do with big men. Too many years of pounding on those knees and ankles and too much abuse from the double and triple teams and hack-a-shack's. How many more Shaq "quality" years are left?

This is another lineup that looks as deep as can be. Williams starting at the point backed up by a future Hall of Famer in Gary Payton, Walker starting at power forward backed up by Udonis Haslem, who had a break out year last year (we'll just pretend it had nothing to do with playing next to Shaq), and of course, Shaq backed up by, *uh-hem*, Alonzo Mourning.

I will understand if they Heat win a championship. Wade deserves that kind of success, i just don't like those "cleaner fish" who travel from team to team, only looking for a way to win a championship. Learn from Reggie Miller people...

My Picks:

Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
Best Rookie: Wayne Simien
Prediction: 1st (Central), 1st (East)

Washington Wizards

I'm the wiz. I'm the wiz. The Wizards laid down the law last season. It was impressive to see a team heading into the playoffs not taking any crap from a player. In 2001, Kwame Brown was the first high school player ever taken with the first pick of the draft. Attitude and injuries always seemed in the forefront with Brown and only one of those can be tolerated, not both.

Brown was traded to the LA Lakers in return for Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins. A good move in my opinion, trading a guy that no longer fits into the work ethic of the team for two talented far from superstar players.

The big loss for Washington was having Larry Hughes leave for the Cleveland Cavaliers. It will be difficult to replace that kind of scoring and defensive presence. The Wizards were able to land Antonio Daniels as a free agent, but that's far from replacing anything Hughes gave the team.

The team's strength this year will come from point guard Gilbert Arenas who can score from anywhere and has ice in his veins and the collection of talented big men, led by Antawn Jamison who found new life after coming to Washington from Dallas last season. Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas are two nasty post players to be pitted against, those guys fight for every point and fight hard.

If the Wiz can get over the loss of Hughes and plug the hole with a combination of Daniels and Butler, there is no reason they can't compete in the SouthEast, although taking on the Miami Heat will be tough.

My Picks:

Best Player: Gilbert Arenas
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 2nd (Central), 4th (East)

Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are a little bit of an enigma to me. With last season's personnel shuffle following the Tracy McGrady trade, sometimes it looked like the players weren't all on the same page. Doesn't a team led at the point by Steve Francis always seem that way? I thought the same of the Houston Rockets when he was there.

What a great sight to see last year, Grant Hill returning to the court and playing effectively was definitely a sweet story and although his season was cut short towards the end, there is hope that he is fully recovered from his series of ankle surgeries and will return to the court again this season, hopefully more confident and more like his old self than last year.

Dwight Howard, "man child" proved that he can play in this league and will someday be a dominant post player, after all, he was just drafted out of high school and he still averaged a double-double through his rookie season. When is the last time that feat was accomplished? I don't hear enough hype about that. Emeka Okafor averaged a double-double as well, but he was drafted out of the college ranks.

I have to say, it would be nice to see Jameer Nelson get some more starters minutes. It seemed the Magic played a more fluid game when Nelson started at the point and Francis was shifted to shooting guard.

It will be interesting to see if Kelvin Cato and Tony Battie can stay healthy this year. I remember thinking before last season that Tony Battie was a big gamble for the Magic, considering his bad knee history while with the Celtics and Cavaliers, but it didn't play as big a factor in Orlando as i thought. That's not to say the injury is completely over with, but if Battie and Cato can spell each others minutes, I'd be ready to let Howard have a bigger role in the post.

What the heck happened with the Fran Vasquez pick? Vasquez was rated one of the top big men available in this years draft and was taken with Orlando's first pick, 11th overall. Shortly after the draft, we started hearing about Vasquez not going to come to the Magic, rather he would stay in Spain and play for Real Madrid. This is a long standing issue with the NBA draft. Players can enter themselves for eligibility, but it doesn't mean that they actually have to commit to the NBA team that picks them. This was an 11th pick though, if an NBA team knows the player has no intention of coming to the league, then they could use that pick on someone that has shown that interest. Come to think of it, i guess the blame could be laid on the Magic organization as well for not doing their homework properly. They just went into the draft thinking, once picked, they could convince Vasquez to come to Orlando.

"I've said, 'No,' because I was afraid to adapt to the American way of life, and of not giving the level they have asked. I'm not a coward, but I prefer to stay in Spain, progress, and who knows? Maybe jump to the NBA in a few years."

Does that sound like a man ready to commit to the NBA? Could they not have known that before the draft? The lure of the NBA life isn't what we think it is, i guess.

My Picks:

Best Player: Steve Francis
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 3rd (Central), 10th (East)

Charlotte Bobcats

Expansion what? I remember when the expansion Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies came into the league. The two teams didn't look like they had a hope in hell of improving in their first few seasons. It's a different story for the Bobcats through, you can look at that roster and the way Bernie Bickerstaff has drafted and signed talent and see the improvement coming rather quickly.

I had some questions about the drafting of Emeka Okafor. I had heard the stories of his back problems and how it would hinder his play in the extended NBA schedule. Well, i was wrong to doubt the pick, wasn't i? Okafor played above and beyond expectations and from all accounts is learning and developing this off season in hopes of being a bigger part of the team's offense.

There were too big surprises for me when watching the Bobcats last season. Primoz Brezec, who couldn't bribe his way unto the court in Indiana was picked by Charlotte in the expansion draft and proved to be a steal. The guy can play, he can score and rebound with the best of them, and he's young. Now, who the heck would have thought that Brevin Knight would have been among the league leaders in assist, almost averaging a double-double for the season with points and assists.

This season should be interesting for the Bobcats again and there's no reason to believe they won't improve. The Bobcats drafted a great college point guard in Raymond Felton and they are surely hoping the lack of size Sean May has won't be as big a hindrance as people think.

I just don't think the improvement will be significant enough to get them into the playoffs, but it will bring some more excitement to Charlotte.

My Picks:

Best Player: Emeka Okafor
Best Rookie: Raymond Felton
Prediction: 4th (Central), 11th (East)

Atlanta Hawks

Oh woe, the Hawks ended up having another disappointing season. I've been silently pulling for the Hawks for years. The lovable losers of my life.

Just look at their lineup this season and you can see the potential is incredible, but there is much seasoning to be done. Even the addition of Joe Johnson this off season won't bring the Hawks into the playoffs, the supporting staff in Atlanta is not what it needs to be this season, not that it won't be in the future, it's just not there right now.

Much like the Toronto Raptors, you have to question the choice of selecting a player that occupies the same position as your draft pick of the year prior. Marvin Williams is a great talent, but Josh Childress will have something to say about Williams' playing time.

The Hawks would have taken a huge step into respectability if they had signed Eddy Curry to an offer sheet this off season, but the issue of Curry's irregular heart beat and his unwillingness to be tested by Hawks' doctors just soured that deal to such an extent, there was no getting by it.

Because this team is still so young, there is no way to properly judge the future, other than to say it's going to be good, but whether or not the Hawks can hold on to their young guys beyond their rookie contracts is going to be the question.

My Picks:

Best Player: Joe Johnson
Best Rookie: Marvin Williams
Prediction: 5th (Central), 15th (East)

Eastern Conference playoffs - round one: Chicago Bulls(47-35) v. Washington Wizards(45-37)

Thu, 21 Apr 2005 23:28:37 -0800

Game 1: Sunday at Chicago, 4:30 TV: CSN/TNT
Game 2: Wednesday at Chicago, 7:30 TV: CSN/NBATV
Game 3: April 30 at Washington, 2:00 TV: CSN/TNT
Game 4: May 2 at Washington, TBD
Game 5: May 4 at Chicago, TBD*
Game 6: May 6 at Washington, TBD*
Game 7: May 8 at Chicago, TBD*
*if necessary

No need going over what a great season this has been, what it means, who deserves the credit, etc. Because the season aint over. Especially in this series, which will be difficult but winnable.

If Curry and Deng were in the lineup, I'd say it's a no-contest Bulls series win. Obviously losing two of a team's best players will hurt, and as I'm sure most of you have heard: no team that lost it's leading scorer going into the playoffs have won a series.

ESPN.com has a pretty nice preview up, and provides their experts' (and Bill Walton) predictions as well as some key stats:

	WIZARDS	BULLS
PPG	100.5	94.5
RPG	42.8	43.8
APG	19.1	21.3
FG%	.437	.432
FT%	.725	.750
3P%	.343	.357

As we all know, that doesn't tell the whole story, so here are some advanced stats from Knickerblogger's site:

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	WIZARDS	BULLS
Poss	96.6	96
Off Eff	103.9	98.5
Def Eff	103.9	97.4

That's right, as good of an offense as Washington is, they are just as poor on defense. And it's nearly opposite for the Bulls, so needless to say this series will be an interesting clash of styles. The Bulls need to have their defense lock down and keep the game close. What that will essentially come down to is the team defense of the Bulls against Washington's big 3: Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, and Antawn Jamison.

How can the defense accomplish keep this? We all know the Bulls have trouble with whomever in the backcourt isn't guarded by Kirk Hinrich. In this series I'm going to guess Hinrich takes Larry Hughes while Chris Duhon matches up with Gilbert Areanas. This could lead to a huge game or two by Arenas, and with him being one of the league leaders in getting to the foul line, you know that he is not one to be afraid of penetrating to the basket. This goes the same for Hughes, but the Bulls have to hope that Hinrich can put the brakes on at least one of the Wizards' terrific guards.

The Wizards start a small frontcourt of Jamison and Jared (don't call me Chris) Jefferies, which provides a matchup problem. I do think that Nocioni can hassle Jamison enough to keep him off his game, but the loss of Luol Deng really hurts when Noc needs to rest (or gets in foul trouble) or when guarding the other forward spot. The AARP squad of Antonio Davis and Othella Harrington will provide an inside scoring that the Wizards will have to contend with, but I think that it'll be the Wizards' athleticism that will provide even more problems. Defensive stalwart Tyson Chandler will have his hands full watching the basket for the Wiz' big 3, and hopefully will be altering shots left and right. He may need to more than normal.

Will the Bulls score enough points to stay close? Fortunately for the Bulls those same Wizards also give up a lot of points. Larry Hughes is the NBA leader in steals, but that at the same time illustrates the flaws of their defense. Unlike the Bulls who never give up a cheap basket, keep a hand in the face of every jumpshooter, and contend for every rebound, the Wizards are a chance-taking defense that thrive on the steals of Hughes and others. The Bulls are dead-last in the NBA in terms of taking care of the ball, so this could be a huge issue if the Bulls' (especially Gordon, Nocioni, and Chandler) do not play smart. A few costly turnovers and the Bulls won't even have time to set up their defense before they're taking the ball out of their own basket. The Bulls frontcourt, even without Curry, have the ability to score in the post against the Wiz' big men. I know I have already taken a pot-shot at the age of Antonio Davis and Othella Harrington, but it has been their quality play that has soften the blow of losing Eddy's offense. The Wiz' Brendan Haywood averages 2.4blk/40 (almost as good as Chandler [2.6]), so it won't be completely easy. But where they could also get points is through offensive rebounds, where the Wizards are 26th in the league in opponents' OReb%. And we all know that's how Tyson can do damage.

So the game is close, now what? This is where the Bulls have an advantage. While it's true that the Bulls are young and have little playoff experience, the Wizards can say the same. Kirk Hinrich and especially Ben Gordon have shown a closing ability that has won the Bulls many games that they many times had no business winning. But when the games were close, this team found a way. Will that change in the playoffs? perhaps, maybe the young guys will frighten under pressure. But I doubt it. And don't underestimate how much the clutch factor for this team rests on Tyson Chandler. He needs to be in at the end of games, period. It is him who is getting Ben Gordon the ball off of rebounds, and him who is responsible for anchoring a defense that leads the league in defensive fg%. I was thinking of suggesting that Skiles should start Chandler over Antonio Davis, minding that the Bulls could not afford slow starts in playoff games. But if it keeps him out of foul trouble, keep him coming off the bench. Besides, why mess with success??

What about the (gulp) intangibles? Coaching is a draw, as both Skiles and Eddie Jordan are at the top of their profession, although it seems that the Wizards aren't as consistently motivated as this Bulls team is. As I pondered before though, how much of an edge would this give the Bulls in the playoffs, where you can assume all opponents will be as focused as them? This is especially true due to the bad blood these two teams have accumulated over the season. It'll be interesting to see if either playoff-inexperienced team comes unglued due to the animosity (and this will really have me eyeing Nocioni).

Home court advantage will be a bigger deal, as the Wizards were 8th in the conference with a 16-25 road record (the Bulls were 3rd at 20-21). If the Bulls can take the first 2 at the United Center it could be a short series. I think it will go 7 though, with the Bulls putting enough good defensive efforts to make it to the second round. Chandler, Hinrich and Gordon(who will likely become a star after this series) will close these games out, and show the NBA what we've been enjoying all season.

Bulls over Wizards, 4-3.

I welcome your predictions and comments below, I'll have a game 1 report after coming home from the United Center on Sunday!

Preview: Spurs vs. Wizards

Thu, 07 Apr 2005 12:29:45 -0800

from Foxsports.com

STANDINGS:
Spurs - 1st place, Southwest Division.
Wizards - 2nd place, 6{ GB, Southeast Division.

PROBABLE STARTERS:
Spurs - F Bruce Bowen, F Nesterovic, C Tony Massenburg, G Ginobili, G Parker.
Wizards - F Jamison, F Jared Jeffries, C Brendan Haywood, G Jarvis Hayes, G Arenas.

TEAM LEADERS:
Spurs - Duncan, 21.3 ppg and 11.8 rpg; Parker, 6.2 apg.
Wizards - Arenas, 24.7 ppg; Jamison, 8.1 rpg; Larry Hughes, 5.3 apg.

SEASON SERIES:
Spurs, 1-0.

LAST MEETING:
Jan. 17; Spurs, 101-73. At San Antonio, the Spurs shot 52 percent (39-for-75), including 75 percent (12-of-16) from 3-point range, and limited the Wizards to season lows for points and shooting percentage (31.8 percent). Reserve Devin Brown led the Spurs with a career high-tying 24 points. Hayes, in a reserve role, was 10-of-20 and scored a career-best 27 points for Washington.

ROAD/HOME RECORDS:
Spurs - 16-9 on the road.
Wizards - 18-7 at home.

INJURIES:
Spurs - G Mike Wilks (knee); F Linton Johnson (ankle); G Romain Sato (knee).
Wizards - G Hughes (thumb); F-C Kwame Brown (ankle); C Peter Ramos (shoulder).

Weekend Review

Mon, 07 Mar 2005 09:33:28 -0800

Boy, this was a rough weekend. There were tons of little injuries and flare-ups, and huge warning signs all over the place. One league of mine, which generally sees about 5 or 6 moves in a weekend, had 13 separate waiver wire transactions involving 22 players on Saturday and Sunday. So you KNOW there was some action going on in the "L" this weekend. Let’s try to recap:

Major/Minor Injuries

There were plenty of minor injuries to major names this weekend. Yesterday, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley sat out and the Mavs responded with a season-low 69 points (their previous low this year was 80). Sacramento played without Brad Miller and Cuttino Mobley, but managed much better as they defeated the Pistons by 15. Tim Duncan sat out the last half of the Spurs’ victory on Sunday, and might miss Tuesday’s game against the Nets. Antawn Jamison left the Wizards’ game early on Sunday with a sore knee. Ah, the second half of the season. Players are breaking down, games are becoming less important for certain teams, and you’re going to see a lot of unannounced missed games for your players. You’re going to have to simply work through these, though. Don’t be afraid to start a lesser player on your bench when you know a starter of yours is going to miss a game.

What’s going to be much more important than these minor injuries to stars, though, is how you react to the more major injuries, and the clusters of injuries that are happening to certain teams. For example, the Wizards are facing injuries to Jarvis Hayes and Jared Jefferies, and now that Jamison is having injury issues, Kwame Brown and Brendan Haywood become much more valuable as the default 3rd and 4th scoring options. They are both great plays this week. Their opponent on Saturday, the Bobcats, are going to be without Brevin Knight for at least a couple of games, meaning Jason Hart will also have great value this week.

Other injuries that should have you scanning the waiver wires include:
· Luol Deng’s bum ankle keeping him out of Chicago’s rotating lineup for a couple weeks.
· Jamaal Tinsley’s continual injuries of one sort or another killing his value for the season.
· Zach Randolph and Ruben Patterson missing time, giving Shareef Abdur-Rahim unexpected value.
· Doug Christie proving that the Magic, as we suspected, pretty much gave away Cuttino Mobley for absolutely nothing.

Tim Thomas Alert

Did you make it through the trading deadline without getting suckered in to trading for Tim Thomas? I’d hope so. He’s on one of his classic, "Look! I can have value!" runs right now, but don’t be fooled. He might be available in some shallow leagues, but you shouldn’t be thinking about picking him up. Sure his points can look nice every once in awhile, but when you have a small forward who doesn’t get 4 boards, or even 2 assists, or a steal, or a block, well, that’s a big problem.

Mid Season: Southeast Division / Washington Wizards

Tue, 15 Feb 2005 21:47:27 -0800

Everyone knew Antawn Jamison was a good player, but this is ridiculous. The addition of Jamison to the Wizards lineup seems to have brought the team together in a way Michael Jordan s ill fated comeback attempt couldn t.

The Wizards hold one of the most potent offensive games in the league. With Gilbert Arenas healthy, no one seems capable of containing them. Larry Hughes is currently on the injured list, but he makes the 3 headed offensive monster of Hughes, Arenas and Jamison, the most evenly matched triple threat in the league this season.

The only weakness for Washington is their defense. Collectively, their athleticism should make them adequate on defense, but for some reason, that side of the ball hasn t really developed well, and they are relying on high scoring up tempo games, much the way the Dallas Mavericks have modeled their scheme in the last few seasons.

The Wizards have been suffering with their internal defense. Their highly touted big guys have been injured for much of the season forcing them to rely on unproven players.

Kwame Brown has still to live up to his promising ability, currently nursing a foot injury, and Etan Thomas has just recently returned to the lineup and isn t playing his full share of minutes just yet. Brendan Haywood has had to carry the majority of minutes at centre and although he is a big body, he s also another young post player and is learning under fire.

Once Hughes comes back to the lineup, I expect the Wizards to make a big push for home advantage by season s end. Hopefully they start listening to the crowd when they chant D-Fence . D-Fence .

Count On: Gilbert Arenas
Best Addition: Antawn Jamison
Rookie To Watch:
Spark Plug: Anthony Peeler

Weekend Review

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 14:33:18 -0800

Sunburned.

The non-game of the week(end), Phoenix vs. Indiana, was pretty much over after 5 minutes. The Suns broke out to a 15-3 lead and never looked back. What it did do, however, was give us a chance to look at some of the Suns second-stringers, who got a decent amount of court-time in the second half. Remember, when a team is scoring almost 110 points a night, just being on the court should get you a decent amount of open looks and fast-break buckets. So if ever a non-Nash starter goes down with an injury (if they lose Nash, all bets are off), their replacement could have some pretty significant value. So let s have a look at who got more minutes that usual Sunday night, and how they did.

Maciej Lampe, F
19 mins, 4-7 FG, 1-1 3pt, 1-2 FT, 10 pts, 5 rbs, 1 blk, 4 fouls.
Previously best known for sitting in the waiting room at the NBA draft until the second round, this 6-11 sweet-shooting forward has shown some flashes during his short career. While he s going through typical youngster troubles with turnovers (4.6 per 48 mins) and fouls (8.1 per 48 mins), Lampe looks to be a nice spot-shooter, and could really find a niche on this team should Shawn Marion get hurt. Down the road he could definitely be a great player, but for now even with minutes he probably wouldn t be more than 12-7 with a 3. Also he s from Poland, but you shouldn t make any jokes about that.

Casey Jacobsen, G/F
27 mins, 3-6 FG, 1-4 3pt, 2-2 FT, 9 pts, 2 rbs, 1 ast.
Jacobsen is good for one thing and one thing only 3-pointers. This year, 58% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, and he s hit one in 9 straight games. That said, he s already getting 18 mpg, and he shouldn t be much more than a role player at any point in his career.

Steven Hunter, F/C
15 mins, 5-5 FG, 10 pts, 5 rbs, 4 blks.
Here s an interesting guy. Despite being the 15th overall pick in 2001, he s never seen more than 13 mpg in any of his 4 years in the league. His per-48-minute numbers this year (19.4 points, 10.1 boards, 4.9 blocks) are pretty nice, and he s shooting an absurd 68% from the field. He could be a Brendan Haywood type, helping in blocks and maybe a little in boards.

Leandro Barbosa
12 mins, 2-3 FG, 2-2 3pt, 6 pts, 3 ast, 1 reb.
Things are not looking good for this onetime Fantasy Basketblog favorite. Coming out of Brazil, he showed promise of being a Rafer Alston type last year, posting nice numbers in 3 s and steals, and playing well after Stephon Marbury was traded. But now he s seeing less time due to Steve Nash s incredible play, and after missing 5 games with the chicken pox (don t ask), Joe Johnson may have supplanted him as the backup PG. Barbosa might just need a fresh start.

Who s Your Daddy?

So remember how last week we told you that James Posey would be your "best bet" among the Grizzlies 500 swingmen? Well, prove us wrong, Shane Battier, prove us wrong. And that s exactly what Battier did this weekend, while Posey played only 20 minutes on Thursday and sat out with his ailing foot on Friday.

Battier had a monstrous weekend, getting 73 minutes over 2 games and putting together 31 points, 5 blocks, 2 steals, 13 boards, 5 assists, and 6 threes while shooting 65% from the field. Those are some great numbers. If Posey continues to miss time and Battier continues to get major minutes, he could be a nice all-around player for your team.

Weekend Review

Mon, 13 Dec 2004 14:49:53 -0800

Team Chemistry
... and why it often doesn't matter when it comes to fantasy basketball.

In the latest episode of "As The Kobe Turns" ("Kobes of our Lives"? "General Kobe"?) Kobe Bryant is now crying about how Karl Malone was hitting on his wife. Meanwhile, he refers to his teammates work as playing for "me", and word around town is that said teammates aren't too thrilled with Kobe at all. What does this mean for you, the fantasy basketball enthusiast?

Absolutely nothing.

Listen, as much as Kobe might be a terrible teammate in real life, he's still a Top-5 talent when it comes to fantasy basketball. His numbers - other than FG% - are up across the board this year, averaging 26.8/7.5/6.9, with over a 3, a steal and a block. He's getting to the line 11.2 times per game and knocking down 81% of his shots from the stripe. His shooting percentage has taken a major hit (now at 39% following his 6-of-23 performance Sunday night), but he's still one of the best fantasy players on the planet. You have to be worried about his plantar fasciitis, but right now, with all the controversy surrounding him you may be able to get him at a little cheaper than his actual value.

Shopping Big and Tall

Centers. You need 'em. We've got 'em. While there have been the usual number of fantasy busts at center this year, there have been a few guys stepping it up lately that you might be able to find on your waiver wire. The following centers had standout (for them) weekends, so we'll bring them up now. Most of these guys should already have been picked up, but if not, go ahead and grab 'em.

Clifford Robinson, GSW
How much upside can there be for a 38-year old center who's best year was 1995 and hasn't averaged 5 rebounds since 1997? Not much. But nonetheless, he's one of the few centers who has the ability to help your team's 3-point production. Over his last 5 games he's started to get more minutes (30 per game, up from about 20), and in December he's averaged 1 3-pointer, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks. His 11.1 points won't help you, and his 3.7 boards from the center spot will definitely hurt, but there are certainly worse options. His 4 3's, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 21 points on Sunday are about as good as you'll get from Robinson, but that's pretty damn good.

Brendan Haywood, WAS
A fantasy basketblog favorite. Haywood is slowly becoming a very dependable center, both in real life and in fantasy. Haywood is among the league leaders in blocks, which means he definitely won't be your waiver wires, but his strong play of late has gotten him more crunch-time minutes and may have solidified his spot as the go-to center once Etan Thomas comes back from injury. His stats so far in December (10.3/9.2 with 2.8 blocks on 56.8% shooting) would look good on just about any team as a second center. A better option than Clifford Robinson, to be sure, he had back-to-back 17 point efforts this weekend.

Nazr Mohammad, NYK
Here's a classic case of a guy who just really needs minutes, and he can be an asset for your fantasy squad. While his per-minute averaged have hardly changed at all, his 29 mpg are a career-high, and as a result, his numbers are at a career high as well. 12.8/9.5 with a block, a steal, 56.6% from the field? That's a nice looking second center. Not as much upside has Haywood, but a fantasy asset, definitely. His 20-point, 11-rebound night on Friday is a sign of things to come, and he should have a few more of those nights this year, though they will be sporadic.

Something Ain't Right...

Thu, 11 Nov 2004 22:48:18 -0800

Take a guess who is in the top 5 in team scoring. C'mon, I dare ya. Dallas Mavericks? Sorry, no, they're 6th. The Kings? pfft! Not even in the top half. OK, stop embarassing yourself. Yeah, the Heat, with Dwayne Wade and Shaq, that's not a huge surprise. And the Suns, with Amare, Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, and The Matrix, well that's reasonable. But the other three teams? How about this: Charlotte, Washington, and Seattle. Shazam! Who the heck is putting the ball in the basket for these guys? Let's have a look-see:

Charlotte

OK, so they're also giving up the 3rd-most points in the league, but admit it, you thought these guys would struggle to score 80 points on most nights. Their marquee player, Emeka Okafor, is a defense-first center. Their shooting guard, Gerald Wallace, shoots about 55% from the free-throw line. So what's going on? First of all, Primoz Brezec is scoring 18.3 ppg (beating his career high by 16.3 points), hitting nearly 2/3 of his shots. Jason Hart is dishing the ball to the tune of 9.7 apg, and they're sharing the ball: 6 players are averaging in double figures, and one other is averaging 9.7.

Don't expect this to keep up, though. Brezec is good, sure, but not .595 fg% good. Expect him to settle down to 14 ppg, maintaining his 8 boards, and very little else. Hart will not keep up his torrid assist pace, but he'll be worth having on your team. Look for 12/3/6 with a steal or two and a three here or there. A good utility player.

The gem of this team is Okafor. Definitely. Listen to this, and guess who player X is: "a 6-10 All-America center ... he came out of college with his defensive skills fully developed, but he surprised NBA observers with a sophisticated offensive repertoire." Sounds like Okafor, but really it's an early report on Alonzo Mourning. And I think that's right where Okafor is headed. He's not gonna dominate like Zo from the get-go, but he certainly will get his fair share of looks at the basket - look for 15/12 with 2.5-3 bpg. He's the real deal - and maybe the only one on the team.

Seattle

The biggest surprise in the NBA, the Sonics are 4-1 and blowing away all of the preseason predictions. While Ray Allen's output isn't a surprise, Rashard Lewis has been scoring at about 5-6 ppg higher than his norm. Neither of these guys are really any more or less valuable than they were on draft day, but there are some guys to be scouring for on the waiver wire.

The big shocker is Danny Fortson, who has come out of nowhere to average 9.8 boards - in just 17.5 minutes. That's a ridiculous rate, but not totally unpredictable. Remember, he's the guy who averaged a double-double for the Warriors a couple times. Look for him to get more minutes as he continues to clean up the glass, especially on the offensive side. Also look for him to sucker-push foriegners, like he did to Zarko Cabarkapa last year.

There are two very solid second-year guys on this team who are worth keeping tabs on. Luke Ridnour, the point guard from Oregon, earned the starting job to start the year, and is starting to earn more minutes with his play. He still turns the ball over a little too much, but if he continues to ward of Antonio Daniels for minutes, he'll be a fine util/backup PG, getting about 12 and 7 or so, with a three and a couple steals.

The other second-year man is Nick Collison, who is nowhere near ready to be picked up. But they like this kid a lot, and he's already rebounding well. Look for him to start getting more minutes as the year carries on, especially if Vladimir Radmanovic is traded.

Washington

Another score-all-the-time team, the Wizards are stacked with scorers. The trifecta of Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, and Larry Hughes should all average over 18 points per game. Jarvis Hayes and Juan Dixon should each hit double digits themselves. And that's without Kwame Brown or Etan Thomas in the lineup. Sure there's not much defense going on, but hey, who likes defense? This is fantasy basketball, not real basketball.

The first three players mentioned above should be on a roster in every league. After that, it's hard to tell. There are going to be battles for minutes at a number of positions once Kwame, Etan and Steve Blake return to the court. The obvious losers are going to be Dixon and Brendan Haywood, who has a great chance to show the Wizards they weren't crazy to give him an extension last week. Haywood could be a nice short-term pickup, but they also spent a good deal of money to keep Thomas around, so they'll likely split time - and be useless to your fantasy squad.

Here's an interesting trade. How about the expiring contract of Larry Hughes and Kwame Brown for Ron Artest and Jeff Foster? I'm just saying, is all.

TEST POST

Thu, 11 Nov 2004 17:39:46 -0800

# Teams

* Atlanta Hawks
* Boston Celtics
* Charlotte Bobcats
* Chicago Bulls
* Cleveland Cavaliers
* Dallas Mavericks
* Denver Nuggets
* Detroit Pistons
* Golden State Warriors
* Houston Rockets
* Indiana Pacers
* Los Angeles Clippers
* Los Angeles Lakers
* Memphis Grizzlies
* Miami Heat
* Milwaukee Bucks
* Minnesota T-Wolves
* New Jersey Nets
* New Orleans Hornets
* New York Knicks
* Orlando Magic
* Philadelphia 76ers
* Phoenix Suns
* Portland Trailblazers
* Sacramento Kings
* San Antonio Spurs
* Seattle Sonics
* Toronto Raptors
* Utah Jazz
* Washington Wizards