HOOPLOG: Chauncey Billups

Billups, PIstons topple Bulls, look ahead to lighter schedule

Thu, 09 Mar 2006 22:39:44 -0800

Admit it...a lot of you were a little nervous last night as the pesky Bulls took the Pistons down to the wire at the Palace. Two reasons for the slow start: One, it was the first game back from the West Coast, and two, they had two full days off before returning to practice on Tuesday. Yes, the Pistons looked rusty to start, but Chauncey came alive in the 3rd with 14 points, putting his team back in control. The 4th quarter was a shootout, 37-36 in favor of the 'Stones, and had all the drama we've become accustomed to seeing when the Pistons are on FSN this season. Talked to Chauncey after the game, and he admits, despite the fact there are only 22 games left in the regular season, he's not even thinking about the playoffs just yet. That's probably a good thing. The Pistons are still only two games up on San Antonio for the best record in the NBA, so there's no time to let up now. Speaking of which, the schedule has finally lightened for Flip's bunch. Saturday's game with the Wizards will be tough, but after that, it's five straight against teams with losing records. After the 8-game, 12 day stretch the Pistons just finished, the timing couldn't be better. Look for Deeeeeetroit basketball to go on a nice little run, and finally, finally, get their starters some much needed rest.

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Nothing fits forever

Wed, 08 Mar 2006 21:49:48 -0800

It would seem that last night’s infernal burst of Gilbertology might truly need no comment from ours truly. As in, we live in heaven, he lives alone, our souls are intertwined and the moment need not be soiled by explanation. The more and more I gazed upon that fascinating still—one as destined for iconic status as Tiger with the fist pump or Yao’s scream of antiquity—the more brutally apparent it becomes to me that Arenas, far from being an oddball, is the living, breathing god of my favorite kind of NBA player: the kind you watch, instead of just view. What Iverson, Kobe, Nash, and a handful of others I go out of my way to see play have in common is this ability to not merely produce on any given night, but to casually redefine themselves through masterstrokes of basketball impressionism.

Let me put briefly put aside the strained fire and brimstone that guides this site long enough to admit, as I did last week, that this is by and large a league of consistency. Unlike baseball and football, where one can be violently up and down from one game to the next but still get recognized overall as a fantastic contributor, to be a credible contributor a guy’s got to come with steady output. Freaks and streaks can be profound, but no player’s a recognizable force (or definite failure) in this league until he can be counted on; to scrape the ridges of Mount Dunkmore, he’d better be guaranteed to account for a serious percentage of his team’s production, both in the box score and as a reliable force when the ball hits his hands. Until then, he will always get saddled with the p-word, no matter how impressive he is in spurts.

When you reach the rarified air of superlative hoops accomplishment, there are at least three kind of consistency. Most obviously, there are the rock-solid bequeathers, under-appreciated and often big men like Duncan, Brand, Bosh, Dirk, Jamison, Kidd, Ray Ray and Redd. These folks give it their all with frightening regularity, churning it out from the opening bell and expected to operate as if to a rhythmic tick. I want to stop short of saying that you can intuit them from looking at a box score, but by and large there is no dramatic arc to their in-game performances. Professional, workmanlike, whatever you want to call them, these are consummate anchors of an offense, the given you pencil in at most moments during the season’s onslaught.

In the next category, you find explosive players with a tendency toward predictable outcomes, who ebb and flow over the course of a game, occasionally make you doubt, and ultimately bring you right back to who you always knew they were. I’m talking about Garnett, Pierce, Wade, Vince, Billups, Bibby, Gasol, Melo, Richardson, Jefferson, Sheed, Marion, and Artest himself—unquestioned experts who sometimes lull, sometimes soar, but never have to redeem themselves and are constantly working within their own limits and images. This isn’t a knock on any of these fine, hurling turtles; merely to point out that if you turn on the television to see them play, you know what you’re getting and will be accordingly excited. Each game reinforces their , with ups and downs that end in a pointed reminder of yeah, that’s him.

Gilbert and his gang, as I will now aptly dub them, rest upon their own set of shaggy shoulders. To return to last week’s trope of half-assed existentialism, All-American and yet bleakly Continental, they are players constantly exceeding themselves, or at least engaging in what feels for all the world like a motherfucking statement game. It can LeBron or Amare exerting and expanding their dominance, Kirilenko or Gerald Wallace twisting up the parameters of a box score, Nash working his conductor-ly magic, or Kobe, Iverson or McGrady scoring not only at will, but as if it’s unnatural for them to miss—or even repeat themselves out on the floor. Arenas is a must-see, not only because he’s likely to put on a show, but for what each and every game can do to your sense of him as a player and personality. If Wade proves with each big game that he’s still Wade, still proud, then Gilbert does it up in a way that’s not only unpredictable; with each of these self-transcending events, he also manages to seem unlikely all anew. As does Kobe, Bron, et al. In the crucible of the game, their legend is broken down and created anew, surprising you not only with this most recent installment but, in its reconstitution of the player’s most basic essence, shock you yet again they exist at all, that anything they do has ever happened in the glare of man’s senses.

This may seem like two-bit metaphysics for those of you not in tune with my lifelong education on this planet (or anyone merely taking issue with my late night sloppiness). But next time you find yourself up past bedtime watching one of these aforementioned idols, think about whether or not you feel you’re seeing them for the first time, whether you’re transfixed partly out of the fear that you’re witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Not just a good game from your favorite NBA player, or one of those “instant classics” this blog will reference two years from now; I mean one of those performances where, in some ways, you feel like you’re discovering the sport again for the very first time.

Chauncey Billups for MVP?

Mon, 27 Feb 2006 13:19:12 -0800

by Kurt of Forum Blue & Gold: Over at the generally brilliant 82games.com, one writer has come up with an MVP prediction system that seems pretty accurate. He had the data from the last 20 years to tinker with, to...

All-Stars Hamilton, Chauncey Play As One

Fri, 17 Feb 2006 09:54:09 -0800

In the DETROIT NEWS, Chris McCosky writes that Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton "came to the Pistons as strangers back in the summer of 2002. Both had been cast off by their previous teams."

Fantasy Basketblog Midseason Awards

Wed, 15 Feb 2006 09:35:33 -0800

What, you thought I’d let DM give out the midseason awards? As if …

Stud of the Year : To the best-performing first-round pick.
Shawn Marion, PHO
And it really isn’t even close. With Amare sidelined, Marion has been forced to pick up his game, and boy, has he ever. His FG% is up to a remarkable 51%, and he’s a legitimate 7-category player. He’s solved his struggles at the line, going from 68% in December to 86% in January. It’s at the point where, if he keeps it up, Marion could be considered for the #1 overall pick next year. Runner-up: LeBron James.

Supporting Stud of the Year : To the best-performing second- or third-round pick.
Rashard Lewis, SEA
Lewis has been the prototypical supporting stud this year. He’s a huge asset in two categories (threes and points), and doesn’t really hurt you anywhere. I’ve been very critical of Lewis in the past because he doesn’t rebound enough to be a good forward, nor does he get many assists, but at the end of the day, he does enough of everything else to give him supporting stud of the year. Runner-up: Chauncey Billups.

Breakout Player of the Year
David West, NOK
Despite the fact that I hate him for what he did to my Wizards on Monday night, West is undoubtedly the breakout player of the year. His per-minute averages haven’t changed all that much, other than points, and he’s a perfect example of why we preach minutes above all else here at FBB. Still, can he maintain those percentages in the long run? Runner-up: Mehmet Okur.

Breakdown Player of the Year : To the premier player who’s lost the most value between draft day and today.
Steve Francis, ORL
Listen, we’ve been through a lot with Steve Francis, starting with his “99.9%” guarantee to return to Maryland for his senior year. Then there was the draft debacle when he practically died on the spot when drafted by Vancouver. Then his clashes with folks in Houston. Then his clashes with Orlando when they traded his buddy Cuttino Mobley. Still, through it all, his numbers stayed OK. But now he’s complaining again, and his suspension earlier this year got him “last straw” status here at FBB. Now he’s basically admitting he’s not playing his best, because of trade rumors, and the last straw was … well, you know. You just can’t trust the Franchise anymore as a stud, and he should be avoided until at least the middle of the third round in fantasy drafts next year. Runner-up: Stephon Marbury.

Leaper of the Year : To the player who’s made the leap to stud status.
Pau Gasol, MEM
Admittedly, this has very little – if anything – to do with Gasol’s play. But when you draft him, you know you’re going to dominate the Beards category. Plus, he’s getting real live stud minutes now that the Hubie experiment is over in Memphis, and that’s allowed him to finally live up to the promise he showed his first two years in the league. The free throws are a worry, but it’s always good to have something to work on. Runner-up: Carmelo Anthony.

Junior Leaper of the Year : To the mid-round pick who’s made his way to supporting stud status.
Samuel Dalembert, PHI
All he needed was someone to believe in him. Now that he’s getting starter’s minutes, he’s turned into a legit 2nd-tier center. His blocks are absolutely incredible, but don’t overlook his respectable FT% for a center. Runner Up: Rasheed Wallace.

Allen Selected for the Three-Point Shootout

Thu, 09 Feb 2006 12:41:02 -0800

It has been announced that Ray Allen has been selected to participate in the Three-Point Shootout at this year’s All-Star game. He joins Quentin Richardson (the defending champion), Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Chauncey Billups and Raja Bell in the competition. I like Allen’s chances this year. He probably has the purest shot of the bunch.

Cart me to shivah

Fri, 03 Feb 2006 09:11:19 -0800

Yesterday, DLIC had initially called Odom a “busted Swiss Army knife,” which I for some reason thought rendered this post useless. Then he changed it to “your do-it-all, do-nothing guy,” which, all sunrise aside, silently opened up the wound that is the following:

It is with great trepidation that I back into this one, which takes us (with a loving sigh) back into the mangled plains of Kobe’s MVP case. The one-time Troubled Smiler has been putting on a show of historic proportions, catching forty in his sleep and, no surprisingly, rocketing back up to the top of the Association’s most admired zealots. I want to claim that he’s threatening to revolutionize what it means to be an MVP, since he’s going to single-handedly urge the Lakers into the post-season without needing, wanting, or being offered any meaningful assistance. But Iverson did walk away with it that one season, and until last year AI was the poster child for unconscionable gunning. In either case, in an epoch marked by an unquestioned marriage of New Jack and the Right Way (shaming both in the process), what Kobe’s doing hardly makes the league feel good about itself. If he ends up with lopsided numbers and the Lakers end up a low seed in the lesser of two conferences, no way that award is a feel-good story.

The thing that would distinguish Kobe’s season above AI’s 2000-2001—and make it a case study is justifiable, nearly heroic, one-man-bandsmanship—is that he’s working with nothing. Iverson had a supporting cast made of fun, teammates that one could argue he should’ve passed to who were at least able to take care of business in his fiery wake. Kobe, as Burns pointed out the other day, has got a frontcourt of Kwame Brown and Mihm, pure cast-offs who hover somewhere between bust and journeyman. The smart argument for Bryant: it may not always be emotionally satisfying or ethically withstandable what #8 is doing, but you try and think of a better way to make that team playoff-bound. And not like any of you need this pointed out, but as sheer technicality its force in inescapable: he’s got arguably the greatest coach in the Association’s marshy history signing off on the program.

(I’m thinking more and more that the MVP might end up with Billups both as a nod to team excellence and as a way of avoiding both the unsightly “win hog” and the ugly idea that Nash has history on his side. You wonder, though, if that wouldn’t instantly get enshrined as precedent, and lead to it once and for all skewing toward the unsinkably fake “best player on best team” criteria.)

Which brings us to the strange case of Mar Mar, chronic FreeDarko favorite and thorn in the side of Kobe’s reputation. One of the most insistently compelling men to ever take the court, his game truly needs no introduction within these halls of entitlement. Suffice to say that, when P-Jax hinted that Odom would play Pippen to Bryant’s MJ, not a one among us felt the world stretch or sag. Given his arsenal of talent and Jackson’s creation of Pippen as we know him, there was no reason to think that, even more so than during his one season with Riles, Odom’s calling was finally upon him.

Sadly, Jackson’s shroud over town has brought Odom even less luck than Rudy’s Run. The conventional wisdom goes something like this: inveterate shot-jacker Kobe disrupts the delicate to-and-fro flow of the triangle, freezing out the New Odom who so fervently belongs in it, and reducing him to a role player without a clear cut part to play. Anyone looking to tarnish Kobe’s accomplishments need look no further than Lamar’s gruesomely inconsistent stat lines, which show the man he could be while at the same time revealing the shackles of a lifetime. Odom, these wise-mongers say, proved in Miami that he could put it all together, and these Kobe-induced trials represent nothing less than the stunting of perfect’s gates.

Now hold your calm as I write to you the unfortunate: it’s all wrong, and Odom is Odom’s fault. The man can do anything, but his do-anything-ness is largely reactive and almost entirely on his own terms. His time with the Heat was a whopping success exactly because he was locked into a fairly specific role and asked to occasionally shock the world. As in, play power forward, but with some range, the ability to create your own shot, and the option of us running the offense through you without a loss of flow. Be a mismatch, a problem, a cipher of the scheme, but let the other team be burdened with that. This stands in sharp contrast to his Clippers days, when Odom was most notably spotted hoarding the ball at the top of the key and either plotting a drive or deciding to launch a three. Here, we saw the essence of Odom: a jumble of conflicting skills fighting with itself from moment to moment, resolving itself only long enough to beat whatever’s in front of it.

What Phil, at least in theory, is asking Odom to do is to decide in advance who he is. Garnett can do it all but has some central notion of being; Diaw, as I’ve said before, might be what Lamar would be if he could pre-plan for his five-cat immensity. He is a phantom that lives only for the spirit of that possession, a man known only by his play-by-play identity. Alas, with Odom it seems to be slightly fissured tradition or hex, as his ability to take advantage of his frightening variety is directly proportional to the amount of chaos it causes the team. He only realizes his excellence when it stretches out before him in an uncanny plateau of indecision, and thus robs himself of whatever Pippen-esque usefulness he might have in the triangle’s system. It pains me to say it, but I have to agree with Dan Patrick that Odom is going to be one of those “what could have been’s”—not clipped by circumstance or poor judgment, he just plain got put together the wrong way.

Trending Upward

Mon, 30 Jan 2006 08:45:48 -0800

Guest Columnist Joe Newell was nice enough to write this piece summarizing the start of Bob Hill’s tenure:

Since taking over as head coach after the loss at Indiana, Bob Hill has had 13 games to put his stamp on this team, and its quest to right the ship. We have seen the expected ups and downs that come with this type of transition; a 5-8 record is the most visible yardstick. But the story behind the story of wins and losses is the direction the team is headed; the tenor and chemistry of the Supersonics going forward. My estimation of the team under Bob Hill is that it is “trending upward”.

Prior to, and shortly after the change of Coach there was regular finger pointing and silent and not so silent dissent; we all read of Vladimir’s griping and constant refrain from his agent over playing time. Robert Swift and the NBA D league were mentioned in the same breath. We heard of Reggie asking for a trade, as well as Vitale; grumbling and discontent from Rick Brunson and Danny Fortson. Ray and Rashard have been telling us that they cannot do it all.

I say “trending upward” not because Seattle has won 3 out of their last 4, but because the tenor, the general direction of the team seems “hopeful”, and positive with just about half of the season to go. Winning silences most of the dissent. Therefore Seattle needs to keep on the positive side of the win loss column. This latest stretch of positive games, and the new energy and attitude on the team looks like a godsend for a team that was a ship without a rudder.

Individual performances within the framework of the team system as a whole are the framework for success. Good teams need good players; and in the NBA, most all teams have good players; but good players and good individual performances don’t necessarily put wins in the win column. The system has to be a good one that plays to the player’s strengths, and mitigates the weaknesses. Prior to the coaching change, we still had some good players (or great players) making great plays and having great games, but the wins were not forthcoming. Reggie Evans was showing some great rebounding and scoring numbers; but we were losing at an alarming rate. Ray and Rashard were both putting up All-Star numbers, but we were 13-17.

Things have been different for the Supes as of late. Seattle has put a few good games together against quality teams, even on the road. But it seems to me that our Point Guard has been infused with a new lease on life since the change. Luke has played 12 games under our new coach, and the system seems to really match his skill set. Under Hill, Luke has averaged 37 minutes, 4 Rebs, 7.1 Assists and 15.7 points. This is a great improvement over his roughly 10 pts/6 Assists numbers of last year, and most of this year. True he is playing more minutes, but he is earning them with the stellar play. Over the last 13 games (of which he has played 12), he has been matched up against some of the leagues finest point guards (we are talking about hall of fame, and MVP) in Stephon Marbury, Allan Iverson, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, Sam Cassell and Chauncey Billups. Throw in Jason Williams, Gary Payton, Mike James and Chris Duhon and you can’t find a stiff in the group. It was against these players that our “homegrown” point guard has excelled.

It would be remiss of me to not mention the maturation and the growth curve of our two young stud centers in Petro and Swifty, and how much of a key they have been; but we didn’t know what we had there. Their ability to contribute was nearly an unknown. Luke on the other hand was a starter on a playoff team last year. To see him step it up in this fashion shows how much the system needed to change to fit his strengths and weaknesses, and those of the team as a whole.

I for one like what I am seeing; so for me I would characterize the team as “trending upward”, just as Luke’s play has been.

Pistons give coach Saunders winning return to Minnesota

Wed, 25 Jan 2006 13:34:50 -0800

The Detroit Pistons made coach Flip Saunders' return to Minnesota a winning one as they routed Saunders' former team 107-83. Chauncey Billups scored 18 of his 27 points in the third quarter and Tayshaun Prince ...

Game Night: Pistons

Fri, 06 Jan 2006 11:00:16 -0800

While all eyes are on Rick Sund, the Sonics’ GM explains in this article that there won’t be any moves for at least two to three weeks, until Coach Hill has had a chance to take a look at his new rotation.

Hill also tossed in this beautiful swipe at The Magician, “You can't rotate 10 or 12 guys. You've got to have 8 1/2, nine guys max. And maybe Robert (Swift's) that half guy. And Robert's got to play.”

Amen, Bob. I can’t count how many times I anguished over the chaotic substitution pattern Weiss used during his reign. Of course, if the Sonics lose five in a row, Hill may be changing his tune. Losing tends to spoil one’s plans.

Anyway, the Sonics are, as they say up in Canada, “in tough” against the Pistons in Detroit tonight. One big fear is who will guard Chauncey Billups – because Ridnour is going to have a hell of a time defending him when he posts up. Oh, and there’s the question of getting rebounds when you’ve got Frenchie going up against Big Ben, and Radman trying to box out Rasheed Wallace. Oh, and can Sugar Ray put any stops to Rip Hamilton? Yikes.

Folks, the Bob Hill era may be experiencing its first slaughter tonight. That’s okay, though, because even Phil Jackson couldn’t help the Sonics tonight. But there’s no need to worry, Sonic fans, because right after the Pistons it’s a trip to the Big Apple for a matchup with Isaiah and his Big-Money All Stars!

As the Point Guard Turns

Mon, 19 Dec 2005 07:57:26 -0800

Three Situations to Pay Attention To (Because Five Just Makes This Column Too Damn Long)

Denver
Earl Watson was one of my favorite guys to write about when doing this column last year. The Memphis rotation prevented him from having consistent fantasy value, but whenever Jason Williams was out, Watson was worth plugging in there. In 14 starts he was good for 11.9/3.3/6.5 with 1.4 steals and 1.1 3s. People thought it was odd when he signed with Denver in the offseason since the team already had point guards Andre Miller and Earl Boykins on board. Those opinions certainly didn’t change after he appeared in just one of the team’s first eight games, and Watson seemed like one of the players most likely to be moved once Dec. 15 came around. But with Earl Boykins nursing an injury, Watson has used the last four games to remind us of what he can do. He’s stepped right into Boykins role, coming off the bench gunning. In four games he’s put up an impressive line of 14.3/2.8/4.5 with 2.0 steals and a shockingly great 3.5 3pg in just 27.3 mpg. The 3s are the big surprise. He’s put up at least seven in each of those four games; he had never attempted seven 3s in a single even once before this stretch. So what does it mean for your fantasy team? Not all that much. Boykins will probably miss a few more games, so Watson will have a few more chances to show his stuff. (It should also be noted that Marcus Camby has missed the last three games and Kenyon Martin sat out yesterday’s, meaning there was more offense to go around.) When Boykins is ready to return, it’s hard to see Watson maintaining any of his current value. Andre Miller is playing some of the best ball of his career, and because of size issues, there’s just no way that all three of them can be on the court together for an extended period of time. Watson’s inspired play this past week has surely captured the attention of teams around the league, but at the same time it probably reminded the Nuggets of why they signed him in the first place. Watson’s a nifty little player, and he’s probably better to have around than Boykins, as Watson’s +9.6 (tops on the team, by the way) compared to Boykins’s –3.0 might attest. The Nuggets are in dire need of interior help with Camby and Martin perpetually banged up and Nene out for the year, so it’s possible Watson could still be shipped out. And now you know – or at least are reminded – that Watson can be filed in with the same group of guys as Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams – all they need is an opportunity.

Portland
Oh, happy day – a legitimate excuse to actually write about my favorite basketball player of the past decade, Steve Blake. If you’re a regular reader – and if you aren’t, may I ask why not? – you should know that we are Wizards fans and former Terps. So we have a long history with Stevie – I even have a Wiz jersey with his name on it. When Antonio Daniels and Chucky Atkins came on board over the summer it was clear that Blake was out of the Wizards’ plans, which was obviously disappointing to me. I didn’t mind seeing Juan Dixon leave – he’s just not all that good. But Blake, while far from a perfect player, is a useful guy to have around as a backup point guard. He signed with Portland, and like Watson, immediately found himself #3 on the depth chart behind Sebastian Telfair and rookie Jarrett Jack. Again like Watson, he was a forgotten man early in the season, appearing in just two of the first 12 games of the season. But once Nate McMillian gave him a chance, he offered some solid production off the bench and when Telfair went down with a thumb injury it was Blake, not Jack, who got the starting nod. That was quite a breakout performance on Friday against the Sonics – 19 points, 13 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 3s, 1 block on 7-of-14 shooting. Despite picking up two fouls in the first minute of last night’s game against the shitty, sorry, no-account, pathetic Wizards, Blake went for 14/5/4 with a 3 in 23 minutes, leading a short-handed Blazers squad to victory. So what does Blake bring to the table? Well, since he arrived at Maryland as a freshman he’s tried to shed the label that he’s not a strong outside shooter, but he’s actually not bad. Over his career thus far he’s 119-for-311, which is a strong 38%. For comparison’s sake, “great shooter” Juan Dixon is a career 32% shooter from long range. Blake’s a smart player who looks for his teammates but has a tendency to try to make the spectacular play a bit too often. I always argued that his game would be better suited for the NBA when he would be surrounded by players who could anticipate and handle his passes. And then he ends up on the 05-06 Blazers. Oh well. Blake seems to have won the trust of McMillian over the past week or so and should stay in the starting lineup as long as Telfair is out, which could be anywhere from a few games to a month. Just keep checking the Portland papers to find out. (Note: Reports indicate Telfair will be out for at least a month. Great news for all the players mentioned here.) As long as Blake is starting he deserves serious consideration and makes a great guy to plug into the utility spot this week, although road games against Detroit, Memphis and Minnesota aren’t the most enticing matchups.

Juan Dixon qualifies at PG in at least Yahoo leagues, and now that he’s cracked the starting lineup for the Blazers, it’s time to give him a shot. We’ve been tough on Juan around here, but we still love him. He’s still not going to be a fantasy savior and given the same amount of PT, Blake should have more value, but Dixon should hit just enough 3s and grab enough steals to have some marginal value. His FG% will always be a drag – he’ll have his good games, like last night’s 8-for-13 performance or his 13-for-22 game against the Hornets two weeks ago, but be prepared for some 4-for-15s. He’s actually been a complete non-entity in the steals department this year, but he averages 1.7 p40 over his career, so you’d expect him to approach that level with regular PT. Jarrett Jack is another person who could have some value in the deepest of leagues while the Blazers deal with all of their injury issues, but it seems like McMillian likes keeping him in a limited role. He had a very impressive 11/6/8 performance last night, but played just six minutes in the game before that. He was Telfair’s primary backup before he went down, and the fact that he was passed over for the starting nod seems to be a pretty good indication of how McMillian wants to use him right now.

Los Angeles Clippers
Shaun Livingston was a popular preseason sleeper pick despite the fact that he has already proven to be quite brittle and would be in the backcourt with proven vets Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley. But it was understandable based on his April stats from last season and the simpler fact that the kid can flat out play. In 10 April starts he put up a line of 11.0/4.4/7.4 with 1.4 steals on 45% shooting. Nice numbers, but he didn’t even attempt a 3 in that period. Not too bad in real life – a point guard needs to make good decisions, and if you can’t hit the 3, don’t take it – but that’s not what we look from from a PG in fantasy land. The Clippers took their time letting Livingston get healthy at the beginning of the season, sensing no need to rush him considering his past and the Clippers fast start. The 20-year old was rusty in his first game back, failing to register an assist in 20 minutes of action; he notched at least one dime in every game he played last year. But Livingston showed why he was so highly regarded in his second game back as he dished 10 assists (with just a single turnover) in 29 minutes of action in a Clips win over the Rockets. Livingston was out there during crunch time, and while that may have had a lot to do with the fact that Corey Maggette was out, it is still worth noting. He obviously has a long future in the league, but his fantasy outlook is still murky. Playing time issues aside – and it looks like he should be able to see around 20 mpg as long as Cassell and Mobley are healthy – Livingston still needs that secondary skill to help him emerge from the pack. We know the assists will be there, but what else? His 1.6 steals p40 last season was good but not great. We already know his complete aversion to shooting 3s. He shot 41% last year, so we can’t expect anything great there. Right now he’s looking a lot like T.J. Ford. Check out their rookie season p40:

Livingston: 10.9/7.4/4.4 with 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, on 41% shooting.
Ford: 10.6/9.7/4.8 with 1.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 3.8 turnovers, on 38% shooting.

Ford has added sort of added the 3-point shot to his repertoire this year (hitting 0.6 per game on 41% shooting) and he’s seriously boosted his FG% even with more shots. So Livingston certainly has a chance to be much improved in the near future. But even if he somehow found himself with a starting job, he looks to be PG2 material for the time being.

Comet Gain
Jason Kidd – 14/9/1 with two 3s, a steal and a block yesterday – in the first quarter. You knew those assists were start piling up

Andre Miller – Speaking of piling up assists, 10.1 in the last 9 games for Miller; also picking up scoring slack with injuries piling up, but career low 72% from the line isn’t too hot.

Chris Duhon – You know he runs hot and cold; 17.0/3.7/4.0 with 3.7 3s and 61% shooting over last three is pretty hot.

Chauncey Billups – Don’t bother calling it an All-Star game if Chauncey’s not there this year; 21.3/2.713.0 with 3 3s on 64% shooting over last 3 is almost – almost – expected at this point.

Chucky Atkins – The 3s are starting to come in bunches – 13 in his last four games; with Jarvis Hayes out for at least the next three games he’s a great short-term add as he’s seen 44.5 mpg in his two starts thus far.

The Hold Steady
Gilbert Arenas – Absolutely killing his owners in FG%, but absolutely dominant in 3s, FT%, assists, steals and points. That’s not a bad trade off.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – Still a starter even with Jamaal Tinsley back? That’s good news. Expect fewer assists, but the steals and 3s should still be there.

Marko Jaric – Numbers haven’t been great (8.5/3.5/6.0 with 1.5 steals and no 3s), but the fact that he’s seen 39 mpg in the two contests since Troy Hudson returned is at least encouraging.

Mike James – A clunker yesterday, but 19.0/3.0/4.7 with 2.3 3s in the three games before that were a nice bounce back.

Stephon Marbury – Still waiting for him to bust out; after going for 30+ in 17 games last year, has done it only twice this year.

The Fall
Jason Williams – Maybe he won’t officially lose his starting job to Gary Payton, but you’ve got to think that especially with Riley on board, he’ll be on an extremely short leash when he gets back.

Nate Robinson – There’s a reason the Knicks are a team to stay away from; one day you’re a “must” pick-up, the next day right back on the waiver wire.

Damon Stoudamire – Still a solid option, but team’s recent scoring woes have taken a toll on his production; career low in steals is very disappointing.

Steve Francis – Shooting only 19-for-54 (35%) since returning from injuries, with a 20 assists/13 turnovers to boot. Quite unimpressive.

Mike Bibby – Another second overall pick that’s been disappointing; I’m still a big fan, but the 0.9 steals after tying his career high with 1.6 last year is bad news.

As the Point Guard Turns

Mon, 12 Dec 2005 08:11:04 -0800

Chicago

Kirk Hinrich’s a tough dude. After leaving the season opener with an ankle injury and being questionable the next night, he came out and went for 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting with 3 3s. After being knocked out with a concussion against Dallas, he did miss a game, but then came back with averages of 24/4.5/10 in his next two games. You’ve got to like that. I normally leave players on the bench for a game to let them get back into the swing of things after an injury, but after Hinrich’s last performance I made sure to get him back in. Of course, it should be noted that Captain Kirk saw an average of 43 minutes in those two games due to the absence of Ben Gordon.

I should have known better than to give Chris Duhon any credit. He promptly had four absolute nightmare games before exploding for 24 points, 7 assists and 6 3s against, of course, the goddamn Wizards. Duhon’s still worth keeping around because he’s one of the few players you can tell Scott Skiles actually likes. His steals and 3s are still solid, but he’s starting to lose some of his assists to Hinrich. His minutes have remained fairly consistent, but it was a good thing he had that great game before Ben Gordon came back, because then things would have gotten interesting. ESPN’s Player Rater isn’t the gospel, but it’s an effective tool; as of Saturday night, Duhon was right in between Richard Hamilton and T.J. Ford. Numbers don’t lie, right?

Miami

Was I a little too early in proclaiming the death of Gary Payton’s fantasy relevancy? Looks that way. With Jason Williams nursing a bum knee, Payton has played 42 mpg in two starts, averaging 17/3.5/3 with 2.5 3s and 1.5 steals in his last two. His shot looked especially strong last night in a game against the Wizards THAT WAS HANDED TO THE HEAT BY THE OFFICIALS. Sorry, lost my composure there a bit, the last two Wizards games have been especially brutal. But that was a fucking fraud. Anyway, the 3-pointers are the big news here. Payton hadn’t been a serious long distance threat since the 00-01 season when he averaged 1.3 per game. But The Man Formerly Known as The Glove is putting them up at a high rate this season. Against the Wiz he was spotting up in the corner on multiple occasions – these were designed plays. In his four starts Payton – who topped 8 apg in six straight seasons in the prime of his career – has had more than 3 assists just once, so these 3s are huge for his value, especially since he’s nowhere near the pickpocket he used to be. If he’s going be seeing roughly 40 minutes per games there’s no problem with using him. In weekly leagues he makes a possibly excellent play – the Heat play four games, but who knows when Williams will return?

Atlanta

In case you didn’t notice, there’s a new starting PG in the league. You’d be forgiven for not noticing, of course. Royal Ivey has started the last three games for the Hawks and after a somewhat promising debut in which he scored 14 on 7-of-10 shooting, he still hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in any of those starts. Tyronn Lue is still seeing just about the same amount of time even though he’s now coming off the bench. Actually, I should probably just stop now. The title of this section is Five Situations to Pay Attention To, and unless you play in the deepest league in the entire country, this is certainly not a situation worth your attention.

Los Angeles Lakers

Call me crazy, but I think Sasha Vujajic might actually have some fantasy value at some point this season. The triangle offense doesn’t need a traditional point guard to run it, but Parker barely even resembles a point guard. He’s certainly more of a swingman, and his 1.65:1 assist/turnover ratio backs this up. He’s been putting up decent numbers, but the majority of his production has come early in games. On Saturday he had no production at all; no points, no rebounds, 3 assists, missed all 7 of his shots in 24 minutes. Vujacic wasn’t much better, making only 1-of-3 and he didn’t register a single assist in his 24 minutes. The Lakers have been playing better lately, but they still have very little margin for error. Vujacic’s 3.9:1 assist/turnover ranks fourth in the league, behind only Eric Snow, Brevin Knight and Chauncey Billups. It’s not hard to envision Jackson getting fed up with Parker and making a switch. But what kind of value would Vujajic have if he could find regular PT? Marginal, to be sure. He’s not going to be in there for his scoring, and his 31% shooting so far in his career is almost historically bad. I see him similar to Duhon in that he could hit enough 3s and steals to be a marginal play in weeks when he has enough games, or as a guy to keep on your bench and plug in when the inevitable injuries hit.

Denver

Say this about Earl Boykins: his 26 mpg usually means 26 minutes. In 18 of his 21 games the little man has received between 22 and 29 minutes, which makes him a little easier to deal with than guys that fluctuate between 17-33-24, etc. But the last four games show why Boykins just isn’t a reliable player. Through the season’s first 16 games Boykins was averaging 0.8 3s and 1.1 steals – not great numbers, but enough to merit a utility spot in deep leagues. But that’s about as good as it gets for Boykins in those categories, and you know that he’ll never grab any boards or shoot above 42%. Lots of people have been hoping for Earl to sneak into the starting lineup, but this is a guy who has started 10 games in his 379 game career. His role seems pretty defined. With Andre Miller on one of his hot streaks and piling up the assists, there’s no point in shifting him over to SG in favor of Boykins. You can do better.

Comet Gain

Gilbert Arenas – That was a brutal shooting game last night, but he’s starting to rack up the steals and fills up the box score every night. Think of him as the new AI.

Brevin Knight – Owners don’t have him for scoring, but certainly won’t complain about 17.5 ppg to go along with 9 apg and 2.7 spg in his last six.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – A little bit of everything in his five starts: 11.0/4.2/5.4 with 1.6 3s, 1.0 steals on 52% and 94% shooting. Liking my Brent Barry comparison more and more.

Mo Williams – He’s back on the bench now, but those numbers in his four starts – 19.3/1.5/7.0 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals – and his consistent 3-point gunning off the bench make him worthy of at least a bench spot.

Baron Davis – Yeah yeah yeah, he can’t shoot. But optimists will look at his 41% career number and think that means he’ll shoot around 43% from here on out. Hey, it’s possible.

The Hold Steady

Chauncey Billups – How nice is it to have a guy like this on your team? Holding strong with that career high assist number.

Derek Fisher – Last two games were especially encouraging – no 3s, but still managed to average 16.5 with 1.5 steals. You know my non-starter policy, but if you’re desperate…

Tony Parker – After no steals in first four games, averaging 1.6 since then. In a bit of a shooting slump, but that was to be expected.

Marko Jaric – Life without Hudson is nice; 15.5/5.5/6.0 with 2 3s and 1 steal in 37.5 minutes in last two. Sell high? If you can…

Delonte West – I’m becoming a believer; eight straight games of 30+ minutes and just enough steals, blocks and 3s to merit that final roster spot in your lineup.

The Fall

Deron Williams – Jerry Sloan can’t take all the blame; 31% shooting and 17/12 assist/turnover in last four just won’t cut it.

Sebastian Telfair – You don’t look for rebounds from PG, but four in his last six games is flat-out pathetic;

Jameer Nelson – Back to the bench with Francis back; he’s crippling in leagues that count TO.

Damon Jones – A forgotten man in most recent game; hard to see him making an impact any time soon.

Luther Head – As expected, he’s slid off to irrelevance with the return of McGrady.

Pistons Deny Clippers a Perfect Homestand

Sun, 11 Dec 2005 23:05:56 -0800

Chauncey Billups scored 25 points and had eight assists against one turnover and Richard Hamilton added 23 points as the Pistons never trailed in a 109-101 victory over the Clippers, who had won the first four games of their five-game homestand.

Please Mr. Postman

Tue, 06 Dec 2005 07:53:45 -0800

As promised, today we’ll open up the mailbag to see what you all are talking about …

Q: Hey guys, got a question today regarding the SG position on my team. I'm down to James Posey, who I was going to get rid of after this week. I have a few guys in the FA pool I hope you guys can rank for me.This is a 12 team, H2H league, 12 catagories, FGM, FTM, 3Pt%, and TOs are all counted. These are the guys I think are worth a shot. Sarunas Jasikevicius, Smush Parker, David Wesley, JR Smith, Desmond Mason, Kareem Rush, Devin HarrisThanksMin

A: Well, you’ve got a pretty healthy list of people there on your waiver wire for a 12-team league. First, let’s trim the fat: Kareem Rush, Devin Harris, and David Wesley are all nice players to be sure, but none of them are going to really be effective from a fantasy standpoint right now. That could change with injuries (particularly for Harris, should Jason Terry get injured), but they are a clear step down from the rest of the class.

Of the rest, it really depends on what you need. Parker, Jasikevicius and Smith (I’m assuming you mean the NOK one) are all very similar players whose value really lies in their three pointers. Should Jamaal Tinsley get hurt for an extended period (which he usually does), Jasikevicius could have the most value of the three, but as it is I like JR Smith the best right now.

That said, Desmond Mason – if he’s still available – should be the guy to target. It’s taken him a while to break into the rotation but now that he’s there, he’ll start to put up similar numbers to last year in Milwaukee, with about 17 points and 4-5 boards. He’ll definitely end up being the most consistent of those guys – don’t let the rough start to the season fool you.

Q: Hey guys,
What to do with Kirilenko? Tons of owners are trying to buy low in him but I've stayed strong. Wait until a breakout game then sell high? What should I expect in return?

Thanks guys,
Charlie

A: Well, DM talked to this yesterday in the comments section, but I’ve got to say I’m a little concerned about AK47. Sure, right now, he’s coming back from injury, but if you look at how he’s performed after his stellar 2003 season, the numbers aren’t very encouraging. Last year, he saw drops in boards, points and steals, and the trends are continuing this year. He’s also shooting from beyond the arc less often and less accurately. Sure the blocks are as strong as ever, but what makes Kirilenko so great from a fantasy standpoint is his statistical versatility. That seems to be on the way down.

Another concern has to be the injuries. Now, all of the injuries he’s suffered have been one-time deals. Ankles and wrists are much less scary than knees and backs. But at some point, one-time deals turn into trends. Maybe he’s just a reckless player – lots of times you’ve gotta sacrifice your body to get the steals and blocks that he does. Right now, if you can sell him at a second-round value, I think you should do it. But if you can buy him for a third- or fourth-round value, I think that’s worth considering as well.

Q: Hey, what’s up with Rasheed Wallace? He’s way over his career averages in “little guy” categories: 3s, assists, steals, and FT%. And he’s well below his averages in typical center cats like rebounds, points, and FG%. All in all, of course, he’s playing much better than last year for roto purposes. Is his performance so far a fluke, or part of the new coaching style in Detroit? Is it time to trade him?

A: What’s up with Sheed? How about, what’s up with the Pistons? A team that’s scored 91.4, 90.1 and 93.3 points in ’02 – ’04 is racking up 98.9 ppg this year under new coach Flip Saunders, good for 7th in the league. They’re also passing the ball much better than in the past, with 23.9 apg, second only to the Suns, and much higher than the 21.8 apg they had last year.

Sheed is the second-biggest benefactor in the new offense behind Chauncey Billups, and while I think his value this year will be higher than it was in the past, you’ve got to assume that those steals will come down to around 1 per game, and that eventually his 3PT% will drop back to his career level and he’ll land around 1.5 3’s per game. If that sounds good to your team – I’d say keep him. You likely won’t get the value you deserve for a player like Sheed who does so many of the “little guy” things, like you said.

Q: Assuming Darius Miles is out with season ending injury (cartilage damage), who is to be picked up? Pryzbilla and Zach are already picked up, but what do you think about the fantasy values of telfair, dixon, and patterson? (or even webster)Thanks, Patrick

A: Great question. Let’s go through the list (and we’ll even add one).

Telfair: He should already be on a roster in your league, but if not, go grab him. This injury means he’ll be scoring more and that means he moves from marginal value to a decent utility player.

Dixon: No one is dearer to our hearts than Dixon (we’re both UMD grads), but as a fantasy player, he needs to consistently play 35 mpg to really have value because he can be so inconsistent with his shot. And he’s not going to get 35 mpg.

Patterson: Here’s my pick for the biggest benefactor. It’s no secret that Patterson and the Blazers don’t get along. With Miles out, now Portland can play Patterson plenty to boost his trade value. Last night was a great example, as he played 28 minutes and put up 19 points. Not a bad performance. He’s worth picking up if you’ve got an extra bench spot.

Webster: If you like JR Smith (The NOK version), you’ll love Martell Webster. It’s just too soon for this guy right now.

Travis Outlaw: Here’s the guy that we’d love to see get the minutes. His combination of steals and blocks are quite a fantasy commodity – only about 10 players average over 1 steal and 1 block per game. Given 25-30 mpg, he could be one of these players. Unfortunately, I just don’t see him getting the time while they’re showcasing Patterson.

And if you want to know what DM thinks, here’s what he has to say: “The clearest benefactor of miles' injury is Ha Seung Jin, who should put up a consistent 12/8 with 2 blocks.” Of course, he’s kidding.

Thanks everyone for the great questions!

Billups: Brown Will Grow on Knicks

Thu, 01 Dec 2005 08:24:27 -0800

Brian Lewis of THE NEW YORK POST writes, Before the Pistons stifled the Nets 93-83 last night and with Larry Brown returning to Detroit tomorrow Chauncey Billups said Brown's job saga became a sideshow last year, Detroit is better offensively under Flip Saunders, and he knew the Knicks would struggle adjusting to his demanding ways. But Billups also said Brown gave the team everything he had last year. And the Piston guard learned from personal experience that growing pains under Brown are more pain than growth for a while, but was certain if the Knicks subjugated their egos, he'll eventually make them a better team.