San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The much anticipated west semifinal is finally upon us!  Avery Johnson and company will make their way to the AT&T Center for the series opener tomorrow at high noon.  This matchup promises to be an extremely exciting one. 

Dallas of course comes into the second round after taking out Memphis in four straight.  The Spurs, on the other hand, had a little bit more trouble with Sacramento.  Given the regular season split of two games a piece this series could very well stretch to seven games.  There will be some key factors in this series that play into who is moving on to the next round and who is getting their fishing gear ready.  These are a couple of questions that might hold the answer as to who wins the series.

Who will set the tone in Game 1? 

Unfortunately the Spurs head into game 1 only 36 hours after playing the Kings in Sacramento.  Parker's right thigh contusion and other ailments on his right side will definitely be hurting him.   Duncan has looked solid over the the last few games and showed signs that the plantar fascilitis isn't bothering him as much as it had during the regular season.  Ginobili also looks to be back close to 100% again.  Still, the limited rest has many Spurs fans concerned.  The Spurs have played less than .500 basketball on back to backs this year.  The Mavs come in with plenty of time off, in fact maybe a little bit too much.  They haven't played a game since Monday so the key for Dallas will be how rusty they are and how quickly they can shake that off.  However, the pressure lies more squarely on San Antonio being that they must come out and protect their homecourt.  The Spurs will have to set the tone by matching Dallas' intensity on both ends of the floor to have a chance of beating the Mavs in game 1.

Whose bench will step up?

Both of these teams possess a lot of depth off the bench.  No doubt that the edge of the bench play will be pretty even on paper.  San Antonio has enjoyed solid production from Finley, Barry, and Horry thus far in the playoffs.   Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier gave Dallas a spark off the bench is the opening round, while Marquis Daniels has the ability to give the Mavs a solid contribution as well.  Pop made a change and started Robert Horry in games 5 and 6 of the first round against Sacramento, similar to switching out Ginobili with Brent Barry in the first round last year against Denver.  Nazr Mohammed or Rasho Nesterovic will probably slip back into the starting spot for the beginning of this series unless Pop feels that he would rather keep the change with Horry starting and Rasho giving energy off the bench.  Regardless, a big key for San Antonio is winning the rebounding battle, meaning Mohammed and Nesterovic will have to give Duncan as much help as possible on the glass inside.

Who will win the battle of the big men?

For Dallas on offense Dirk Nowitzki can create mismatch problems for the Spurs.  He is not a prototypical seven-footer in that hes not a low post player.  Duncan, who is not an excellent perimeter defender, will hurt the Spurs if hes sucked out of the post.  Duncan is a dominant rebounding force and he must remain inside to prevent the Mavs from crashing the offensive glass.  Its no secret that the team that wins the rebounding battle usually puts themself in a better position to win the game.  Pop, who used Bowen at times during the regular season to guard Nowitzki, will probably give him the assignment along with Robert Horry.  Keeping Duncan inside will force Nowitzki to take more jump shots and leave the Spurs a dominant rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Will the student become the teacher?

Avery Johnson will match wits with his former coach Gregg Popovich for the first time in playoff competition.  Johnson knows the Spurs better than any head coach in the league.  Using his knowledge to exploit the weaknesses of his former team will be crucial if the Mavs want to win the series.  The problem: the Spurs don't have a lot of weaknesses.  They are the most well-rounded ball club this side of Detroit.  Still, Avery has his guys playing great basketball right now and he will bring the defensive mentality that Pop instilled in him during his playing days in silver and black.   

Fans should be happy that they get an early preview of the Western Conference Finals.  San Antonio and Dallas might be the two best teams in the league.  The winner of this series is going to win the West and has a good chance of winning it all.  So get ready for some action-packed-hard-nosed-ratings-producing basketball!

The guy's a winner. (A winner who closed his thank-you address to the Staples Center fans before the final regular-season game by saying "Sexual Chocolate!")

In Cassell's rookie year the Houston Rockets won the first major professional championship in the city's history. The next year, they won the second.

In 2000, Cassell was in Milwaukee when the Bucks went to the conference finals for the first time in 14 years.

In 2004, his first year in Minnesota, the Timberwolves made it out of the first round - and all the way to the conference finals - for the first time in franchise history.

And now he has guided the Clippers to the second round for the first time since the franchise came to California in 1978.

Cassell arrives, sets up shop, and the team gets better. It keeps happening.

"Ain't that something?" Cassell said.

Here's his five-minute explanation, while standing in the middle of the Clipper locker room after the Clips eliminated the Denver Nuggets Monday night.

"One thing about me, I need five guys that's willing to give it up, man. To every night take that court and fight hard. If you do that man, I swear, I can't predict the future, but I can tell you one thing: we're going to win some basketball games. We're going to win more than you won last year.

"People don't realize, when I went to Milwaukee, Ray Allen was a good player. I made him an all-star. I'm not saying I did it all by myself, but I had a big part in him and Glen Robinson becoming all-stars when I was there. I went to Minnesota, Kevin Garnett was not mentioned for the MVP. He was first team, but was he mentioned for MVP candidate? I make him the MVP. He will make me a second-team all-NBA player and an all-star, but I had a whole lot to do - Sprewell and myself - with his development in becoming an MVP. Know what I'm saying?"

What does it take to draw it out of these guys?

"Push 'em. Push 'em Elton Brand's an example. I said, 'Elton, if you want to be a top 10 power forward, you've got to be able to hit the 15-foot jumper. Everything else you do is cool, you've got to take your jump shot. Because people only play you inside.' Now he took his game out 15 feet, I said, 'You make six jumpers, that's 12 points. You get 10 points inside, 22. Free throws, now you've got 26.' It's simple. And you shoot uncontested jump shots, because in the pick-and-roll, his guy double-teams me.

"Nick Van Exel's my best friend. He said, 'Boy you've got a chance to take that team somewhere that they never in their wildest desire thought they could reach. He said, 'Man, you're what the doctor ordered for those guys.' A guy who won't put up with some (stuff), a guy who won't let us feel sorry. I'm not going to. No, [bleep] that. You know what I'm saying? We walk into an arena, we're not going to walk into an arena and say, 'Okay, we're going to play for 44 minutes and lose in the last four minutes.' [Bleep] that. You walk into an arena, we say, 'We're going to beat these [bleeps].' Cause there's nothing like beating somebody on their court. Makes the plane ride better, know what I'm saying? That's all it's about, man. We're going to represent well here. But on the road? That's where your pride factor is.

" Who would have thought that this team would advance in the playoffs? Don't give me the credit for it. I'm just going what I've been doing. I'm just doing what I've been doing my whole [bleeping] career. Elton Brand. Corey Maggette was playing all-star basketball until he [bleeped] is foot up. Cuttino Mobley. When Corey got hurt, I had to become the second scorer. Now I can sit up here and play 24 minutes and see the development of Shaun. I'm well rested. So I know I've got to play big from here on out, or it won't be successful. I'm cool. It's all about winning for me. I've done scored points, I've done had assists. It's all about winning for me. Because I want to coach in this league.

"I look at Avery Johnson, what he accomplished, and I want to be that same kind of coach. Here's the job. Do your job. If you can't do your job, somebody else got to come do it.
We ain't throwing you away. But for a minute or two - or three or four - somebody else'll step in and do it.

"I tell them, do what you do. Everybody on this team. Do what you do."

Geez! Two MVP-caliber seasons and the guy still can't get any credit! People still continue to underestimate what the guy can do on the court, and the influence that he can have on a game. I became a believer definitively last season after watching the Suns-Mavericks closing game; the guy was a one-man dynamo!!!

I'm taking a different route from that of most commentators; rather than predicting that the Suns won't be able to stop Kobe, I predict that the Lakers will not have an answer for Steve Nash. Kobe's a game-changer, to be sure, but I think his influence on a game tends to come in (big) spurts, whereas Nash has an incredibly subtle influence on the flow of the entire game.

HowEVA (© Stephen A. Smith)… right behind them, we have the Orlando Darkos, probably the best team of the group. They’re mathematically alive, but barely. At the moment, they’re three games out of a spot with three to play, despite their current 7-game winning streak that includes wins against maybe the best five teams in the NBA, the Spurs, Pistons, Mavericks, Suns, and Heat. The Darko trade has been great for them (no, seriously), and they’ve got a bright young line-up with Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and of course, Darko. This is probably the last time in a while that they’re not going to be in the playoffs.

Key games remaining:

Sixers @ Magic, Tonight.
Bucks @ Wizards, Tuesday.
Magic @ Pacers, Wednesday.
Bulls @ Magic, Monday.

CHRIS WILCOX NAMED WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

SEATTLE – The NBA announced today that Sonics forward Chris Wilcox has been named Western Conference Player of the Week for games played Monday, April 3 through Sunday, April 9. Wilcox averaged 23.0 points and 15.3 rebounds while shooting 75.0 percent (27-of-36) from the field during the week to help the Sonics extend their winning streak to a season-long four games. The league honor is the first of Wilcox’s career and the first for a Sonics player this season.

Wilcox began the week by posting 26 points and a career-high 24 rebounds in a 104-87 win over Houston on April 4, becoming the first Sonics player to post a 20-point/20-rebound game since Shawn Kemp did so on Nov. 15, 1995. Wilcox’s 24 rebounds were also the most by a Sonics player since Jack Sikma grabbed 25 boards on Feb. 10, 1983. Wilcox also dished out a career-best six assists at Portland last Friday, April 7, and has recorded double-doubles in scoring and rebounding in four consecutive games.

After averaging 4.5 points and 3.6 rebounds in 48 games with the Clippers this season, Wilcox has posted 15.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game since joining the Sonics on Feb. 23.

The New York Knicks’ Jamal Crawford was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.25 steals per game. He hit two game-winning jumpers to lead the Knicks to a 3-1 record during the week. Crawford grew up in Seattle and was a prep basketball star at Rainier Beach High School

Other nominees for Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week were Cleveland’s LeBron James, Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki, New Jersey’s Jason Kidd, Orlando’s Dwight Howard, Sacramento’s Mike Bibby and Seattle’s Ray Allen.

The Seattle Sonics & Storm organization manages the Puget Sound region’s professional basketball franchises – the NBA’s Seattle SuperSonics and the WNBA’s Seattle Storm. The organization oversees all sales, marketing, finance, public relations and basketball operations for the teams. The Basketball Club of Seattle LLC owns both teams.

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)