I read all four and I suggest you do the same, especially if you're like me and thirsting for more NBA content. I'm not just saying this to set the stage for when the Detroit edition appears — there are a lot of really talented writers out producing quality coverage for blogs, and it's always nice to see when the national media puts them in lights.

NEW YORK -- According to several sources in the coaching and management levels of the New York Knicks basketball team, Knicks President Isiah Thomas has "no coherent plan or strategy of any kind" to remove the Knicks from the long series of defeats they have suffered since Thomas began his tenure in late 2003. Enlarge ImageIsiah Thomas

"People are reluctant to use the word 'quagmire' around here, but let's face it: The Knicks are suffering defeat after defeat at the hands of intractable opponents who keep coming back with renewed resolve," said Larry Brown, who is recovering from injuries received as a direct result of struggling to coach the Knicks. "Perhaps the worst part is the diminishing support we're getting at home. And yet, the president is staying the course… I don't know how long he thinks this can go on."

Report: President Isiah Thomas Has No Exit Strategy For Knicks [The Onion]

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The much anticipated west semifinal is finally upon us!  Avery Johnson and company will make their way to the AT&T Center for the series opener tomorrow at high noon.  This matchup promises to be an extremely exciting one. 

Dallas of course comes into the second round after taking out Memphis in four straight.  The Spurs, on the other hand, had a little bit more trouble with Sacramento.  Given the regular season split of two games a piece this series could very well stretch to seven games.  There will be some key factors in this series that play into who is moving on to the next round and who is getting their fishing gear ready.  These are a couple of questions that might hold the answer as to who wins the series.

Who will set the tone in Game 1? 

Unfortunately the Spurs head into game 1 only 36 hours after playing the Kings in Sacramento.  Parker's right thigh contusion and other ailments on his right side will definitely be hurting him.   Duncan has looked solid over the the last few games and showed signs that the plantar fascilitis isn't bothering him as much as it had during the regular season.  Ginobili also looks to be back close to 100% again.  Still, the limited rest has many Spurs fans concerned.  The Spurs have played less than .500 basketball on back to backs this year.  The Mavs come in with plenty of time off, in fact maybe a little bit too much.  They haven't played a game since Monday so the key for Dallas will be how rusty they are and how quickly they can shake that off.  However, the pressure lies more squarely on San Antonio being that they must come out and protect their homecourt.  The Spurs will have to set the tone by matching Dallas' intensity on both ends of the floor to have a chance of beating the Mavs in game 1.

Whose bench will step up?

Both of these teams possess a lot of depth off the bench.  No doubt that the edge of the bench play will be pretty even on paper.  San Antonio has enjoyed solid production from Finley, Barry, and Horry thus far in the playoffs.   Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier gave Dallas a spark off the bench is the opening round, while Marquis Daniels has the ability to give the Mavs a solid contribution as well.  Pop made a change and started Robert Horry in games 5 and 6 of the first round against Sacramento, similar to switching out Ginobili with Brent Barry in the first round last year against Denver.  Nazr Mohammed or Rasho Nesterovic will probably slip back into the starting spot for the beginning of this series unless Pop feels that he would rather keep the change with Horry starting and Rasho giving energy off the bench.  Regardless, a big key for San Antonio is winning the rebounding battle, meaning Mohammed and Nesterovic will have to give Duncan as much help as possible on the glass inside.

Who will win the battle of the big men?

For Dallas on offense Dirk Nowitzki can create mismatch problems for the Spurs.  He is not a prototypical seven-footer in that hes not a low post player.  Duncan, who is not an excellent perimeter defender, will hurt the Spurs if hes sucked out of the post.  Duncan is a dominant rebounding force and he must remain inside to prevent the Mavs from crashing the offensive glass.  Its no secret that the team that wins the rebounding battle usually puts themself in a better position to win the game.  Pop, who used Bowen at times during the regular season to guard Nowitzki, will probably give him the assignment along with Robert Horry.  Keeping Duncan inside will force Nowitzki to take more jump shots and leave the Spurs a dominant rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Will the student become the teacher?

Avery Johnson will match wits with his former coach Gregg Popovich for the first time in playoff competition.  Johnson knows the Spurs better than any head coach in the league.  Using his knowledge to exploit the weaknesses of his former team will be crucial if the Mavs want to win the series.  The problem: the Spurs don't have a lot of weaknesses.  They are the most well-rounded ball club this side of Detroit.  Still, Avery has his guys playing great basketball right now and he will bring the defensive mentality that Pop instilled in him during his playing days in silver and black.   

Fans should be happy that they get an early preview of the Western Conference Finals.  San Antonio and Dallas might be the two best teams in the league.  The winner of this series is going to win the West and has a good chance of winning it all.  So get ready for some action-packed-hard-nosed-ratings-producing basketball!

On his decision not to re-enter the Orlando game:

"What I was saying was, 'Look, if we're not gonna play to win the game … there's no need to put us out there,' " Ben says now. He claims he had gone to Saunders earlier in the game, complaining that the team was lapsing into one-on-one basketball. He felt his words were ignored. It bugged him.

"It's the kind of stuff that happens … but this time, a couple of writers were sitting a little closer to our bench and they caught whiff of it and decided to make a story out of it. … It didn't bother me. … It didn't bother Flip. … I mean, two or three games before that, Rasheed (Wallace) was having a good night and Flip was … gonna put (Antonio) McDyess in for him and I go up and tell him, 'Man, (Rasheed's) rolling … let him go. I'll come out.' But they didn't catch that."

On whether he will re-sign with Detroit in the offseason:

"Do you look at this as your one big contract chance?"

"I know this is my one and only chance right here. But I don't want to make a big deal of it. … I haven't said anything to Joe (Dumars) about it. … Me and Joe got a great relationship. We come from similar backgrounds, so I pretty much know I don't have to say anything. He already knows."

I read a lot of articles about the Pistons and various players, but this is definitely one of the better pieces I've come across. Not a big surprise — it is Mitch Albom — but it's definitely something Detroit basketball fans should check out if they haven't already.

MITCH ALBOM: Big Ben's last stand? [Detroit Free Press]

I tried to avoid doing this after all the confusion regarding these playoff tiebreakers , but I can't help myself:

Tomorow's games:
Bulls vs. Toronto
Washington at Detroit (i.e. the Tony Delk show)
Indiana vs. Orlando

If Bulls win(Bulls guaranteed higher seed than Milwaukee):

• AND Washington wins AND Indiana wins:
  • Washington is 42-40, Bulls/Indiana are tied at 41-41
  • Indiana wins tiebreaker (division record)
  • Bulls are the 7th seed
• Washington loses, Indiana wins:
  • Bulls/Indiana/Washington are tied at 41-41
  • Bulls win tiebreaker (highest winning percentage in games among the 3 teams)
  • Bulls are 5th seed
• Washington loses, Indiana loses:
  • Bulls/Washington are tied at 41-41, Indiana is at 40-42
  • Bulls win tiebreaker (head-to-head versus Washington)
  • Bulls are 5th seed

If Bulls lose(Bulls guaranteed lower seed than Washington):

• Indiana loses
  • Bulls/Indiana/Milwaukee are tied at 40-42
  • Bulls lose tiebreaker (lowest division record)
  • Bulls are 8th seed
  • I cry myself to sleep
• Indiana wins
  • Indiana at 41-41, Bulls/Milwaukee tied at 40-42
  • Bulls lose tiebreaker (lower division record)
  • Bulls are 8th seed
  • I cry myself to sleep

Feel free to check my work, the real wrinkle was the Bulls being 3-1 against Washington during the season, which set them apart from Indiana (who split their games against the Bulls and Washington) and Washington.

 I'd say the most likely situation is the first, with everyone winning and the Bulls earning the 7th seed.

And if I needed to remind everyone:
5th seed - face Cleveland
7th seed - face Miami
8th seed - face Detroit, I cry myself to sleep.

HowEVA (© Stephen A. Smith)… right behind them, we have the Orlando Darkos, probably the best team of the group. They’re mathematically alive, but barely. At the moment, they’re three games out of a spot with three to play, despite their current 7-game winning streak that includes wins against maybe the best five teams in the NBA, the Spurs, Pistons, Mavericks, Suns, and Heat. The Darko trade has been great for them (no, seriously), and they’ve got a bright young line-up with Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and of course, Darko. This is probably the last time in a while that they’re not going to be in the playoffs.

Key games remaining:

Sixers @ Magic, Tonight.
Bucks @ Wizards, Tuesday.
Magic @ Pacers, Wednesday.
Bulls @ Magic, Monday.

Detroit Bad Boys has the story; a product meant (apparently) to help kids deal with seven-foot tall Afroed centers called The Inflatable Defender.

The idea is that you blow up Ben and then, uh, just kind of put him in your driveway and let your kids drive around him. Definitely don’t elbow him, though, or you’ll end up with one of those neighborhood brawls.

When we received the email this morning informing us of the “NBA blow-up doll,” we’ll be honest, we had thought of something else entirely.

All The Fun, Half The Bruises [Detroit Bad Boys]
The Inflatable Defender [Official Site]

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)