This team is ready.

The real tournament starts Saturday, when the Americans will face Puerto Rico to open up Group D action. And with all due respect to Carlos Arroyo, Yao Ming, and (insert Slovenian superstar here), but the real test for Team USA isn't in the preliminary round. It's in the knockout stages, where the team will first likely meet Turkey or Lithuania, and then either Germany or Spain or France or Serbia. When it's down to eight teams, that's when the team has to perform at or near its peak to win.

And that's exciting. Yeah, the Dream Team was great. But you knew Angola and Australia had no shot. There was no drama. (Well, except for wondering if Christian Laettner would get into the game. Always a crapshoot.) There's going to be drama in early September. Whether it's self-inflicted or caused by a team on a roll (Spain), a young team finding itself (France), or the defending gold medalists asserting their will (Argentina), it'll be something we don't typically get out of international basketball.

Here are my predictions for the tourney. The top four teams from each group make it to the knockout stage, and I've listed them in the order I think they'll finish. After that, it's pretty self-explanatory. The pairings for the knockout rounds can be found here.

losers bracket. Okay, what the hell. Brazil beats Japan, China beats Germany, China beats Brazil for 5th. Germany beats Japan for 7th. And Turkey beats Spain in the third-place game.

The best game of the prelim round will be Spain v. Germany, unless France gets its act together and puts up a fight against Argentina. (They had better hurry - this game is Saturday.) In the round of 16, I look forward to possible matchups between Germany and France, and Brazil and Puerto Rico. If the semifinals end up as I predict, that will be some damn exciting basketball. Hell, even the third-place game would be awesome!

Let's hear your predictions in the comments.

The guy's a winner. (A winner who closed his thank-you address to the Staples Center fans before the final regular-season game by saying "Sexual Chocolate!")

In Cassell's rookie year the Houston Rockets won the first major professional championship in the city's history. The next year, they won the second.

In 2000, Cassell was in Milwaukee when the Bucks went to the conference finals for the first time in 14 years.

In 2004, his first year in Minnesota, the Timberwolves made it out of the first round - and all the way to the conference finals - for the first time in franchise history.

And now he has guided the Clippers to the second round for the first time since the franchise came to California in 1978.

Cassell arrives, sets up shop, and the team gets better. It keeps happening.

"Ain't that something?" Cassell said.

Here's his five-minute explanation, while standing in the middle of the Clipper locker room after the Clips eliminated the Denver Nuggets Monday night.

"One thing about me, I need five guys that's willing to give it up, man. To every night take that court and fight hard. If you do that man, I swear, I can't predict the future, but I can tell you one thing: we're going to win some basketball games. We're going to win more than you won last year.

"People don't realize, when I went to Milwaukee, Ray Allen was a good player. I made him an all-star. I'm not saying I did it all by myself, but I had a big part in him and Glen Robinson becoming all-stars when I was there. I went to Minnesota, Kevin Garnett was not mentioned for the MVP. He was first team, but was he mentioned for MVP candidate? I make him the MVP. He will make me a second-team all-NBA player and an all-star, but I had a whole lot to do - Sprewell and myself - with his development in becoming an MVP. Know what I'm saying?"

What does it take to draw it out of these guys?

"Push 'em. Push 'em Elton Brand's an example. I said, 'Elton, if you want to be a top 10 power forward, you've got to be able to hit the 15-foot jumper. Everything else you do is cool, you've got to take your jump shot. Because people only play you inside.' Now he took his game out 15 feet, I said, 'You make six jumpers, that's 12 points. You get 10 points inside, 22. Free throws, now you've got 26.' It's simple. And you shoot uncontested jump shots, because in the pick-and-roll, his guy double-teams me.

"Nick Van Exel's my best friend. He said, 'Boy you've got a chance to take that team somewhere that they never in their wildest desire thought they could reach. He said, 'Man, you're what the doctor ordered for those guys.' A guy who won't put up with some (stuff), a guy who won't let us feel sorry. I'm not going to. No, [bleep] that. You know what I'm saying? We walk into an arena, we're not going to walk into an arena and say, 'Okay, we're going to play for 44 minutes and lose in the last four minutes.' [Bleep] that. You walk into an arena, we say, 'We're going to beat these [bleeps].' Cause there's nothing like beating somebody on their court. Makes the plane ride better, know what I'm saying? That's all it's about, man. We're going to represent well here. But on the road? That's where your pride factor is.

" Who would have thought that this team would advance in the playoffs? Don't give me the credit for it. I'm just going what I've been doing. I'm just doing what I've been doing my whole [bleeping] career. Elton Brand. Corey Maggette was playing all-star basketball until he [bleeped] is foot up. Cuttino Mobley. When Corey got hurt, I had to become the second scorer. Now I can sit up here and play 24 minutes and see the development of Shaun. I'm well rested. So I know I've got to play big from here on out, or it won't be successful. I'm cool. It's all about winning for me. I've done scored points, I've done had assists. It's all about winning for me. Because I want to coach in this league.

"I look at Avery Johnson, what he accomplished, and I want to be that same kind of coach. Here's the job. Do your job. If you can't do your job, somebody else got to come do it.
We ain't throwing you away. But for a minute or two - or three or four - somebody else'll step in and do it.

"I tell them, do what you do. Everybody on this team. Do what you do."

Here is my mock draft, usually when a player does well in the tournament, their stock goes up in the draft. Teams are gonna pass on Sheldon Williams, due to poor tournament performance. He’ll be the next Elton Brand and will help that Hornets go to the playoffs next year. I put Reddick with the Jazz, looking at the Jazz's draft history they pick over hyped white dudes, who can’t play in the NBA. Hopefully the Sonics get Brandon Roy, he and Ridnouer will form the best back court in the league circa 2110. I only did college players that I have seen play and one Eurotrash dude that Espn ranked high. I guessed the teams that will end up with the highest lottery picks.

 1. Bulls from knicks- joekim Noah.  Had a good tournment, he could really develop 

2. Portland Trailblazers- Adam Morrison. Keep him local.  

3. Charlotte Bobcats-  Tyrus Thomas

4. Atlanta Hawks-Lemarcus Aldridge

5. Toronto Raptors-  Randy foye

6. Orlando Magic- Josh Mcroberts

7. Golden state- Andrea Bargani. The bay area better have ample olive oil and garlic.

8. Boston Celtics- Dee Brown

9. Timerwolves- Rodney Carney

10. Supersonics- Brandon Roy

11. Rockets- Al Hortford

12. Bulls- Ronnie Brewer

13.Utah jazz- J.J reddick. Another white person playing basketball in Utah, I don’t understand.

14 Hornets- Sheldon Williams. Every team will regret passing on him

15. 76ers- Maurice Ager

16 Indiana- Jordan Farmar.  

17. Sacramento-leon powe

Rudy Gay was going pretty high but he will end up a second rounder, due to poor performance in the tournement    

The "Theo Epstein" is apparently Daryl Morey, who teaches a class at MIT, used to work on Wall Street and works as a stats/operations/information guy for the Celtics front office.

A bright fellow named John Quincy at the APBRmetric board dug up some more on Morey, including this blog post briefly annotating a speech Morey gave at MIT in April 2005. I can't seem to run down a transcript of said presentation, but we'll take the blogger's word that Morey talked about the four factors.

It's also worth noting that a Google cache of Celtics.com's "Inside the Numbers" series of articles on basketball analytics lists Morey and Mike Zarren as authors. (The current incarnation of "Inside the Numbers" lists only Zarren and has only three articles, the most recent one being a solid primer of offensive efficiency. Zarren is listed as Boston's "Basketball Operations Analyst, responsible for assisting team decision-making via quantitative analysis." (Thanks to Google, I've also gathered that Zarren is a 2004 Harvard Law graduate and a former editor-in-chief of the school's Journal of Law and Technology.)

Morey's best article on Celtics.com may be this piece on beating opponents by increasing your number of shot attempts. It's interesting because the pendulum in the statsworld seems to have swung towards efficiency as the biggest pillar, when offensive rebounding and limiting turnovers combined are almost as important as shooting percentage. (I'm way guilty of this, by valuing Kevin Martin true shooting percentage way more than Kenny Thomas's offensive rebounding percentage.)

Morey also has a questionable stats-related article in the cache as well, one that argues that because Al Jefferson got a lot of minutes in his age-20 season, and because most players who got a lot of minutes in their age-20 seasons turned out to be stars or solid starters, Al Jefferson is therefore destined to be a star or solid starter. That argument is pretty faulty for fairly obvious reasons - you can't just take a youngster, give him minutes and watch his blossom. It's at best a baby block in the work towards serious prospect analysis.

Regardless, getting someone who understands the growing statistical revolution budding in basketball into a GM chair is huge. It's really another domino: first, it was Dean Oliver coming into the Seattle Sonics organization. Now, it's Daryl Morey getting the reins (though not until the 2007 offseason). It's getting much better.