HowEVA (© Stephen A. Smith)… right behind them, we have the Orlando Darkos, probably the best team of the group. They’re mathematically alive, but barely. At the moment, they’re three games out of a spot with three to play, despite their current 7-game winning streak that includes wins against maybe the best five teams in the NBA, the Spurs, Pistons, Mavericks, Suns, and Heat. The Darko trade has been great for them (no, seriously), and they’ve got a bright young line-up with Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and of course, Darko. This is probably the last time in a while that they’re not going to be in the playoffs.

Key games remaining:

Sixers @ Magic, Tonight.
Bucks @ Wizards, Tuesday.
Magic @ Pacers, Wednesday.
Bulls @ Magic, Monday.

Chicago

Kirk Hinrich’s a tough dude. After leaving the season opener with an ankle injury and being questionable the next night, he came out and went for 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting with 3 3s. After being knocked out with a concussion against Dallas, he did miss a game, but then came back with averages of 24/4.5/10 in his next two games. You’ve got to like that. I normally leave players on the bench for a game to let them get back into the swing of things after an injury, but after Hinrich’s last performance I made sure to get him back in. Of course, it should be noted that Captain Kirk saw an average of 43 minutes in those two games due to the absence of Ben Gordon.

I should have known better than to give Chris Duhon any credit. He promptly had four absolute nightmare games before exploding for 24 points, 7 assists and 6 3s against, of course, the goddamn Wizards. Duhon’s still worth keeping around because he’s one of the few players you can tell Scott Skiles actually likes. His steals and 3s are still solid, but he’s starting to lose some of his assists to Hinrich. His minutes have remained fairly consistent, but it was a good thing he had that great game before Ben Gordon came back, because then things would have gotten interesting. ESPN’s Player Rater isn’t the gospel, but it’s an effective tool; as of Saturday night, Duhon was right in between Richard Hamilton and T.J. Ford. Numbers don’t lie, right?

Miami

Was I a little too early in proclaiming the death of Gary Payton’s fantasy relevancy? Looks that way. With Jason Williams nursing a bum knee, Payton has played 42 mpg in two starts, averaging 17/3.5/3 with 2.5 3s and 1.5 steals in his last two. His shot looked especially strong last night in a game against the Wizards THAT WAS HANDED TO THE HEAT BY THE OFFICIALS. Sorry, lost my composure there a bit, the last two Wizards games have been especially brutal. But that was a fucking fraud. Anyway, the 3-pointers are the big news here. Payton hadn’t been a serious long distance threat since the 00-01 season when he averaged 1.3 per game. But The Man Formerly Known as The Glove is putting them up at a high rate this season. Against the Wiz he was spotting up in the corner on multiple occasions – these were designed plays. In his four starts Payton – who topped 8 apg in six straight seasons in the prime of his career – has had more than 3 assists just once, so these 3s are huge for his value, especially since he’s nowhere near the pickpocket he used to be. If he’s going be seeing roughly 40 minutes per games there’s no problem with using him. In weekly leagues he makes a possibly excellent play – the Heat play four games, but who knows when Williams will return?

Atlanta

In case you didn’t notice, there’s a new starting PG in the league. You’d be forgiven for not noticing, of course. Royal Ivey has started the last three games for the Hawks and after a somewhat promising debut in which he scored 14 on 7-of-10 shooting, he still hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in any of those starts. Tyronn Lue is still seeing just about the same amount of time even though he’s now coming off the bench. Actually, I should probably just stop now. The title of this section is Five Situations to Pay Attention To, and unless you play in the deepest league in the entire country, this is certainly not a situation worth your attention.

Los Angeles Lakers

Call me crazy, but I think Sasha Vujajic might actually have some fantasy value at some point this season. The triangle offense doesn’t need a traditional point guard to run it, but Parker barely even resembles a point guard. He’s certainly more of a swingman, and his 1.65:1 assist/turnover ratio backs this up. He’s been putting up decent numbers, but the majority of his production has come early in games. On Saturday he had no production at all; no points, no rebounds, 3 assists, missed all 7 of his shots in 24 minutes. Vujacic wasn’t much better, making only 1-of-3 and he didn’t register a single assist in his 24 minutes. The Lakers have been playing better lately, but they still have very little margin for error. Vujacic’s 3.9:1 assist/turnover ranks fourth in the league, behind only Eric Snow, Brevin Knight and Chauncey Billups. It’s not hard to envision Jackson getting fed up with Parker and making a switch. But what kind of value would Vujajic have if he could find regular PT? Marginal, to be sure. He’s not going to be in there for his scoring, and his 31% shooting so far in his career is almost historically bad. I see him similar to Duhon in that he could hit enough 3s and steals to be a marginal play in weeks when he has enough games, or as a guy to keep on your bench and plug in when the inevitable injuries hit.

Denver

Say this about Earl Boykins: his 26 mpg usually means 26 minutes. In 18 of his 21 games the little man has received between 22 and 29 minutes, which makes him a little easier to deal with than guys that fluctuate between 17-33-24, etc. But the last four games show why Boykins just isn’t a reliable player. Through the season’s first 16 games Boykins was averaging 0.8 3s and 1.1 steals – not great numbers, but enough to merit a utility spot in deep leagues. But that’s about as good as it gets for Boykins in those categories, and you know that he’ll never grab any boards or shoot above 42%. Lots of people have been hoping for Earl to sneak into the starting lineup, but this is a guy who has started 10 games in his 379 game career. His role seems pretty defined. With Andre Miller on one of his hot streaks and piling up the assists, there’s no point in shifting him over to SG in favor of Boykins. You can do better.

Comet Gain

Gilbert Arenas – That was a brutal shooting game last night, but he’s starting to rack up the steals and fills up the box score every night. Think of him as the new AI.

Brevin Knight – Owners don’t have him for scoring, but certainly won’t complain about 17.5 ppg to go along with 9 apg and 2.7 spg in his last six.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – A little bit of everything in his five starts: 11.0/4.2/5.4 with 1.6 3s, 1.0 steals on 52% and 94% shooting. Liking my Brent Barry comparison more and more.

Mo Williams – He’s back on the bench now, but those numbers in his four starts – 19.3/1.5/7.0 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals – and his consistent 3-point gunning off the bench make him worthy of at least a bench spot.

Baron Davis – Yeah yeah yeah, he can’t shoot. But optimists will look at his 41% career number and think that means he’ll shoot around 43% from here on out. Hey, it’s possible.

The Hold Steady

Chauncey Billups – How nice is it to have a guy like this on your team? Holding strong with that career high assist number.

Derek Fisher – Last two games were especially encouraging – no 3s, but still managed to average 16.5 with 1.5 steals. You know my non-starter policy, but if you’re desperate…

Tony Parker – After no steals in first four games, averaging 1.6 since then. In a bit of a shooting slump, but that was to be expected.

Marko Jaric – Life without Hudson is nice; 15.5/5.5/6.0 with 2 3s and 1 steal in 37.5 minutes in last two. Sell high? If you can…

Delonte West – I’m becoming a believer; eight straight games of 30+ minutes and just enough steals, blocks and 3s to merit that final roster spot in your lineup.

The Fall

Deron Williams – Jerry Sloan can’t take all the blame; 31% shooting and 17/12 assist/turnover in last four just won’t cut it.

Sebastian Telfair – You don’t look for rebounds from PG, but four in his last six games is flat-out pathetic;

Jameer Nelson – Back to the bench with Francis back; he’s crippling in leagues that count TO.

Damon Jones – A forgotten man in most recent game; hard to see him making an impact any time soon.

Luther Head – As expected, he’s slid off to irrelevance with the return of McGrady.

Starting lineups:

SA (13-3, 6-2 away)
PG The French Layup Machine
SG Michael Finley
SF Bruce Bowen
PF Tim Duncan
C Rasho Nesterovic

ORL (7-9, 4-4 home)
PG Jameer Nelson
SG DeShawn Stevenson
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Dwight Howard
C Tony Battie

Both Steve Francis and The Sickness are listed as questionable for tonight's game.  I doubt Pop will let Manu play for many reasons including the looming Miami matchup as well as giving Finley some time with the first group.  Good ol' Hedo missed the Magic's last game with "flu like symptoms."  I would think that by now he's regained enough strength to get on the floor and play his game:  standing at the three-point line.

The soon-to-be 20 year old Dwight Howard has 7 games of 15 or more rebounds this year.  That amounts to almost half of ORL's games.  That young man has a future in this league. Tonight's line:  SA -9.5
Tonight's total:  173
My pick:  SA
The Spurs are 6-10 this year ATS.  I am 4-12.

Results were as expected - success and occasional domination, with Francis sharing and distributing like the natural point guard he is, and Grant Hill returning from a sprained pinky finger. Another uncontroversial midseason trade of Mobley netted guard Doug Christie, which worked out better than planned, especially with all of the whores and groupies hanging around him all the time.

The team also overcame the distraction of rookies Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson, who were nothing but problem children, Howard often vandalizing the locker room and arena with pagan symbols and "Jesus is a jerk" graphitti.

If this sounds like a review of last season more than a preview of this one, it's because the Magic made so many moves this summer we can't even get a handle on all of them. This team looks completely different from last year, and we can't wait to see how coach Brian Hill, starting his 15th year with the team, fits the new pieces together.

Predicted record: 49-33

Miami Heat

What can anyone say about a team with Shaquille O'Neal and Dwayne Wade? Of course the Heat will be the favorites to go to the NBA finals.

As great as the Heat were last season, look at what they have done in the off season. They acquired Jason Williams and James Posey from the Grizzlies, signed free agent Antoine Walker and now solidified their bench with the *gulp* veteran Gary Payton. That's right, if you read the Atlantic division preview, the HEX is still on. Actually the HEX is on for two reasons, the "glove" just adds to the old HEX i put on Alonzo Mourning for being sick, too sick to play in Toronto, but not sick enough to hang from Shaq's nuts like Payton is. Good thing Shaq's got two, right?

Is there another guard capable of taking the spotlight off of Lebron James? Dwayne Wade may be the only one right now, in the way that he cuts to the basket and plays defense with no fear and no regard for his own body.

Shaquille O'Neal must look at this year as the year to take it all again. O'Neal is definitely on his way down, his skills are going to erode rather quickly as they usually do with big men. Too many years of pounding on those knees and ankles and too much abuse from the double and triple teams and hack-a-shack's. How many more Shaq "quality" years are left?

This is another lineup that looks as deep as can be. Williams starting at the point backed up by a future Hall of Famer in Gary Payton, Walker starting at power forward backed up by Udonis Haslem, who had a break out year last year (we'll just pretend it had nothing to do with playing next to Shaq), and of course, Shaq backed up by, *uh-hem*, Alonzo Mourning.

I will understand if they Heat win a championship. Wade deserves that kind of success, i just don't like those "cleaner fish" who travel from team to team, only looking for a way to win a championship. Learn from Reggie Miller people...

My Picks:

Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
Best Rookie: Wayne Simien
Prediction: 1st (Central), 1st (East)

Washington Wizards

I'm the wiz. I'm the wiz. The Wizards laid down the law last season. It was impressive to see a team heading into the playoffs not taking any crap from a player. In 2001, Kwame Brown was the first high school player ever taken with the first pick of the draft. Attitude and injuries always seemed in the forefront with Brown and only one of those can be tolerated, not both.

Brown was traded to the LA Lakers in return for Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins. A good move in my opinion, trading a guy that no longer fits into the work ethic of the team for two talented far from superstar players.

The big loss for Washington was having Larry Hughes leave for the Cleveland Cavaliers. It will be difficult to replace that kind of scoring and defensive presence. The Wizards were able to land Antonio Daniels as a free agent, but that's far from replacing anything Hughes gave the team.

The team's strength this year will come from point guard Gilbert Arenas who can score from anywhere and has ice in his veins and the collection of talented big men, led by Antawn Jamison who found new life after coming to Washington from Dallas last season. Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas are two nasty post players to be pitted against, those guys fight for every point and fight hard.

If the Wiz can get over the loss of Hughes and plug the hole with a combination of Daniels and Butler, there is no reason they can't compete in the SouthEast, although taking on the Miami Heat will be tough.

My Picks:

Best Player: Gilbert Arenas
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 2nd (Central), 4th (East)

Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are a little bit of an enigma to me. With last season's personnel shuffle following the Tracy McGrady trade, sometimes it looked like the players weren't all on the same page. Doesn't a team led at the point by Steve Francis always seem that way? I thought the same of the Houston Rockets when he was there.

What a great sight to see last year, Grant Hill returning to the court and playing effectively was definitely a sweet story and although his season was cut short towards the end, there is hope that he is fully recovered from his series of ankle surgeries and will return to the court again this season, hopefully more confident and more like his old self than last year.

Dwight Howard, "man child" proved that he can play in this league and will someday be a dominant post player, after all, he was just drafted out of high school and he still averaged a double-double through his rookie season. When is the last time that feat was accomplished? I don't hear enough hype about that. Emeka Okafor averaged a double-double as well, but he was drafted out of the college ranks.

I have to say, it would be nice to see Jameer Nelson get some more starters minutes. It seemed the Magic played a more fluid game when Nelson started at the point and Francis was shifted to shooting guard.

It will be interesting to see if Kelvin Cato and Tony Battie can stay healthy this year. I remember thinking before last season that Tony Battie was a big gamble for the Magic, considering his bad knee history while with the Celtics and Cavaliers, but it didn't play as big a factor in Orlando as i thought. That's not to say the injury is completely over with, but if Battie and Cato can spell each others minutes, I'd be ready to let Howard have a bigger role in the post.

What the heck happened with the Fran Vasquez pick? Vasquez was rated one of the top big men available in this years draft and was taken with Orlando's first pick, 11th overall. Shortly after the draft, we started hearing about Vasquez not going to come to the Magic, rather he would stay in Spain and play for Real Madrid. This is a long standing issue with the NBA draft. Players can enter themselves for eligibility, but it doesn't mean that they actually have to commit to the NBA team that picks them. This was an 11th pick though, if an NBA team knows the player has no intention of coming to the league, then they could use that pick on someone that has shown that interest. Come to think of it, i guess the blame could be laid on the Magic organization as well for not doing their homework properly. They just went into the draft thinking, once picked, they could convince Vasquez to come to Orlando.

"I've said, 'No,' because I was afraid to adapt to the American way of life, and of not giving the level they have asked. I'm not a coward, but I prefer to stay in Spain, progress, and who knows? Maybe jump to the NBA in a few years."

Does that sound like a man ready to commit to the NBA? Could they not have known that before the draft? The lure of the NBA life isn't what we think it is, i guess.

My Picks:

Best Player: Steve Francis
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 3rd (Central), 10th (East)

Charlotte Bobcats

Expansion what? I remember when the expansion Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies came into the league. The two teams didn't look like they had a hope in hell of improving in their first few seasons. It's a different story for the Bobcats through, you can look at that roster and the way Bernie Bickerstaff has drafted and signed talent and see the improvement coming rather quickly.

I had some questions about the drafting of Emeka Okafor. I had heard the stories of his back problems and how it would hinder his play in the extended NBA schedule. Well, i was wrong to doubt the pick, wasn't i? Okafor played above and beyond expectations and from all accounts is learning and developing this off season in hopes of being a bigger part of the team's offense.

There were too big surprises for me when watching the Bobcats last season. Primoz Brezec, who couldn't bribe his way unto the court in Indiana was picked by Charlotte in the expansion draft and proved to be a steal. The guy can play, he can score and rebound with the best of them, and he's young. Now, who the heck would have thought that Brevin Knight would have been among the league leaders in assist, almost averaging a double-double for the season with points and assists.

This season should be interesting for the Bobcats again and there's no reason to believe they won't improve. The Bobcats drafted a great college point guard in Raymond Felton and they are surely hoping the lack of size Sean May has won't be as big a hindrance as people think.

I just don't think the improvement will be significant enough to get them into the playoffs, but it will bring some more excitement to Charlotte.

My Picks:

Best Player: Emeka Okafor
Best Rookie: Raymond Felton
Prediction: 4th (Central), 11th (East)

Atlanta Hawks

Oh woe, the Hawks ended up having another disappointing season. I've been silently pulling for the Hawks for years. The lovable losers of my life.

Just look at their lineup this season and you can see the potential is incredible, but there is much seasoning to be done. Even the addition of Joe Johnson this off season won't bring the Hawks into the playoffs, the supporting staff in Atlanta is not what it needs to be this season, not that it won't be in the future, it's just not there right now.

Much like the Toronto Raptors, you have to question the choice of selecting a player that occupies the same position as your draft pick of the year prior. Marvin Williams is a great talent, but Josh Childress will have something to say about Williams' playing time.

The Hawks would have taken a huge step into respectability if they had signed Eddy Curry to an offer sheet this off season, but the issue of Curry's irregular heart beat and his unwillingness to be tested by Hawks' doctors just soured that deal to such an extent, there was no getting by it.

Because this team is still so young, there is no way to properly judge the future, other than to say it's going to be good, but whether or not the Hawks can hold on to their young guys beyond their rookie contracts is going to be the question.

My Picks:

Best Player: Joe Johnson
Best Rookie: Marvin Williams
Prediction: 5th (Central), 15th (East)