HOOPLOG: Jason Terry

Allen Selected for the Three-Point Shootout

Thu, 09 Feb 2006 12:41:02 -0800

It has been announced that Ray Allen has been selected to participate in the Three-Point Shootout at this year’s All-Star game. He joins Quentin Richardson (the defending champion), Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Chauncey Billups and Raja Bell in the competition. I like Allen’s chances this year. He probably has the purest shot of the bunch.

Yao What Do I Do?

Thu, 22 Dec 2005 16:23:36 -0800

So I had a strategy this year going into the draft. It was pretty simple – draft players who were likely to play 80 games, take the best player available over the first 6-7 rounds but also make sure to get two solid centers so I wouldn’t have to play the dreaded “Find a Second Center” game, and do not ignore percentages. It worked pretty well, I think. In a 12-team league I got Dirk-Yao-Pau-Kirk-Cuttino-Sheed-Rip with my first seven picks. I felt that with those picks guys I had seven guys who would stay in my lineup all season, and that included two centers and two guys with an outside shot at qualifying at center.

So you can imagine my frustration now that Yao is going to miss approximately six weeks with a booboo on his big toe. First off, I don’t doubt that the big man is in pain, as when you are 7’6” and nearly 300 pounds, your feet have a lot of weight on them. But the thing is, Yao was playing his best ball of the season right before he got hurt. His last three games before sitting down he was averaging 26/11/1 on 62% from the field on 15 shots per game and 85% from the line at nearly 9 attempts per game. His blocks had been disappointing all season, but you can’t complain about those other numbers. If he had been putting up 14/6 on 43% shooting over five games before going down, then maybe I’d comprehend it a bit more. But as it is, it just doesn’t make sense.

So now I’m stuck without my #2 draft pick for at least a month. Lots of you are in similar situations, if not with Yao then with many of the other guys fighting injuries. So what to do? Don’t freak out. Stick with your strategy. You did have a strategy, right? For all the advice we give on guys who make hot pickups and all that, my team has remained pretty much in tact the entire season. With Eddie Jones and Marquis Daniels as my only SF, I needed some help there so I dumped Daniels this morning (with Josh Howard and Jason Terry back in full force, there’s simply not enough production to go around I feel) for James Jones, who should be able to help me out in 3s when he moves back into the starting lineup. That was just my fourth roster move of the season.

Yao leaves a big hole for me at center, but I kept Brendan Haywood around for this specific reason. This was another part of the strategy – don’t be left without a quality backup at the key positions, those obviously being PG and C. Haywood’s no star, obviously, but he certainly qualifies as a quality backup. His PT is a bit volatile, swinging between 20 and 30 minutes per night, but he does what you want a fill-in center to do: hit a high percentage of his shots and block some shots. His 57% from the field should come down a bit, but he is a 53% career shooter, so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off. A good number of his shot attempts are layups/dunks/follows. And at 2.0 blocks per game, there are only 14 guys better than him there. What you want from injury fill-ins is to not lose ground. Everyone team in your league will suffer through injuries at some point during the season, and how they deal with them will go a long way towards determining who will end up at the top of the standings.

One thing I certainly won’t be doing is making a panic deal for another center. If you play in a league with people that pay attention, most people will see someone with Yao on their team and think that they’ll be able to gouge that owner for an extra center. The odds just aren’t in my favor in a situation like this. Would I love to someone like Jermaine ONeal manning my other center spot instead of Brendan Haywood? Of course. But to get him I’d have to deal from another strength, and then you invariably end up creating more holes for yourself. Basically, I go with under-management as opposed to over-management as a general rule. That is, as long as you have good players.

And I suppose I should address the Rockets frontcourt situation. As one helpful, anonymous commenter pointed out, Stromile Swift did indeed get nutted by Chris Bosh last night, which led to his receiving the same PT as Lonny Baxter. If Stro has recovered he should be back in the starting lineup as long as Dikembe Mutombo is out. But unless he really explodes, it’s hard to see Van Gundy sticking with him as a starter when Mutombo comes back. The Rockets were having enough trouble outscoring anyone with Yao, so without him they’ll need to be even tougher on D, and even in his second century in the league, Mutombo is still a solid defensive presence. If you are willing to use a roster spot on someone who will help you in blocks while killing you in every other category except rebounds, have fun with Mutombo. As for Juwan Howards … he’s just so boring. He just doesn’t help you anywhere – his per 40 numbers are .7 steals, .1 blocks and 0 3s. He’s shot exactly 45% from the field the past three years, so you know what to expect there. He’ll basically need to go for 21 and 12 like he did last game every night to have even mediocre value.

That should do it for me for a few days, at least in terms of posted content. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

Weekend Preview: 12/9-12/11

Fri, 09 Dec 2005 08:15:04 -0800

With all of the snow and cold making it’s way across the country the past couple days, there’s no better way to spend your weekend holed up at home watching basketball. So for today’s weekend preview we’re gonna give you not one but THREE games of the week, one for each day of the weekend.

New Orleans/OKC Hornets at Portland Trailblazers, Friday, 10 pm EST

How about the Hornets as the most pleasant surprise over the first month of the NBA season? A team led by Chris Paul, PJ Brown and David West was 8-7 with wins over decent teams like Sacramento, Denver and Minnesota before dropping their last three. Now that they’re coming back to earth, you’ve got to wonder if the lineup might shuffle a bit – right now, Desmond Mason, JR Smith, and Speedy Claxton are all just short of playing 30-33 mpg – which is what the all need to have value. See if any of them are staking claim to those minutes.

For the Blazers, we discussed Darius Miles during the mailbag this week, and here’s a good chance to check out that rag-tag bunch of reserves who are going to be clamoring for his minutes. My money is still on Ruben Patterson to stand out above the crowd.

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, Saturday, 8:30 pm EST

Maybe it’s just me, but I’ve been loving watching the Celtics this year. The Paul Pierce/Ricky Davis combo is pretty exciting, and the frontcourt jumble has kept things interesting from a fantasy perspective. Right now the hot hand to be seems to be Al Jefferson, at least according to Sports Troopers, but that could always change in a week. Still, for those of you looking for big man help, keeping on top of this situation and guessing correctly could see some nice dividends.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, I’ll personally be looking for Jason Terry to come back to the court after I traded for him the day before he went down with a quad injury (thanks, Jason!). But I’ll also be watching Adonal Foyle part II, DeSagana Diop. 2.1 blocks and 4.8 boards in just 17 mpg? If he manages to start scoring, he’ll have a shot at taking away some time from Erick Dampier, and might actually have fantasy value this year. Repeat, MIGHT.

Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, Sunday, 9 pm EST

We also talked about the Pistons in this week’s mailbag, and right now they’re playing some great basketball. They’re really a different team under Flip Saunders, much more offensive-minded. Plus, from a fantasy perspective, they’re pure gold – with all 5 starters getting between 33 and 38 mpg. But I’ll be watching the three top reserves – Maurice Evans, Antonio McDyess, and Carlos Arroyo. They’ve all got fantasy potential should any of the big 5 go down for an extended period of time, so it’ll be nice to know what to expect.

As for the Clippers, just enjoy it. Everything is clicking right now for them – Elton Brand is my pick for MVP right now, Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley are doing everything the could have hoped, and Chris Kaman is the ugliest man to play basketball in a long time, and is hilarious to watch.

So there you have it. Enjoy the weekend!

Please Mr. Postman

Tue, 06 Dec 2005 07:53:45 -0800

As promised, today we’ll open up the mailbag to see what you all are talking about …

Q: Hey guys, got a question today regarding the SG position on my team. I'm down to James Posey, who I was going to get rid of after this week. I have a few guys in the FA pool I hope you guys can rank for me.This is a 12 team, H2H league, 12 catagories, FGM, FTM, 3Pt%, and TOs are all counted. These are the guys I think are worth a shot. Sarunas Jasikevicius, Smush Parker, David Wesley, JR Smith, Desmond Mason, Kareem Rush, Devin HarrisThanksMin

A: Well, you’ve got a pretty healthy list of people there on your waiver wire for a 12-team league. First, let’s trim the fat: Kareem Rush, Devin Harris, and David Wesley are all nice players to be sure, but none of them are going to really be effective from a fantasy standpoint right now. That could change with injuries (particularly for Harris, should Jason Terry get injured), but they are a clear step down from the rest of the class.

Of the rest, it really depends on what you need. Parker, Jasikevicius and Smith (I’m assuming you mean the NOK one) are all very similar players whose value really lies in their three pointers. Should Jamaal Tinsley get hurt for an extended period (which he usually does), Jasikevicius could have the most value of the three, but as it is I like JR Smith the best right now.

That said, Desmond Mason – if he’s still available – should be the guy to target. It’s taken him a while to break into the rotation but now that he’s there, he’ll start to put up similar numbers to last year in Milwaukee, with about 17 points and 4-5 boards. He’ll definitely end up being the most consistent of those guys – don’t let the rough start to the season fool you.

Q: Hey guys,
What to do with Kirilenko? Tons of owners are trying to buy low in him but I've stayed strong. Wait until a breakout game then sell high? What should I expect in return?

Thanks guys,
Charlie

A: Well, DM talked to this yesterday in the comments section, but I’ve got to say I’m a little concerned about AK47. Sure, right now, he’s coming back from injury, but if you look at how he’s performed after his stellar 2003 season, the numbers aren’t very encouraging. Last year, he saw drops in boards, points and steals, and the trends are continuing this year. He’s also shooting from beyond the arc less often and less accurately. Sure the blocks are as strong as ever, but what makes Kirilenko so great from a fantasy standpoint is his statistical versatility. That seems to be on the way down.

Another concern has to be the injuries. Now, all of the injuries he’s suffered have been one-time deals. Ankles and wrists are much less scary than knees and backs. But at some point, one-time deals turn into trends. Maybe he’s just a reckless player – lots of times you’ve gotta sacrifice your body to get the steals and blocks that he does. Right now, if you can sell him at a second-round value, I think you should do it. But if you can buy him for a third- or fourth-round value, I think that’s worth considering as well.

Q: Hey, what’s up with Rasheed Wallace? He’s way over his career averages in “little guy” categories: 3s, assists, steals, and FT%. And he’s well below his averages in typical center cats like rebounds, points, and FG%. All in all, of course, he’s playing much better than last year for roto purposes. Is his performance so far a fluke, or part of the new coaching style in Detroit? Is it time to trade him?

A: What’s up with Sheed? How about, what’s up with the Pistons? A team that’s scored 91.4, 90.1 and 93.3 points in ’02 – ’04 is racking up 98.9 ppg this year under new coach Flip Saunders, good for 7th in the league. They’re also passing the ball much better than in the past, with 23.9 apg, second only to the Suns, and much higher than the 21.8 apg they had last year.

Sheed is the second-biggest benefactor in the new offense behind Chauncey Billups, and while I think his value this year will be higher than it was in the past, you’ve got to assume that those steals will come down to around 1 per game, and that eventually his 3PT% will drop back to his career level and he’ll land around 1.5 3’s per game. If that sounds good to your team – I’d say keep him. You likely won’t get the value you deserve for a player like Sheed who does so many of the “little guy” things, like you said.

Q: Assuming Darius Miles is out with season ending injury (cartilage damage), who is to be picked up? Pryzbilla and Zach are already picked up, but what do you think about the fantasy values of telfair, dixon, and patterson? (or even webster)Thanks, Patrick

A: Great question. Let’s go through the list (and we’ll even add one).

Telfair: He should already be on a roster in your league, but if not, go grab him. This injury means he’ll be scoring more and that means he moves from marginal value to a decent utility player.

Dixon: No one is dearer to our hearts than Dixon (we’re both UMD grads), but as a fantasy player, he needs to consistently play 35 mpg to really have value because he can be so inconsistent with his shot. And he’s not going to get 35 mpg.

Patterson: Here’s my pick for the biggest benefactor. It’s no secret that Patterson and the Blazers don’t get along. With Miles out, now Portland can play Patterson plenty to boost his trade value. Last night was a great example, as he played 28 minutes and put up 19 points. Not a bad performance. He’s worth picking up if you’ve got an extra bench spot.

Webster: If you like JR Smith (The NOK version), you’ll love Martell Webster. It’s just too soon for this guy right now.

Travis Outlaw: Here’s the guy that we’d love to see get the minutes. His combination of steals and blocks are quite a fantasy commodity – only about 10 players average over 1 steal and 1 block per game. Given 25-30 mpg, he could be one of these players. Unfortunately, I just don’t see him getting the time while they’re showcasing Patterson.

And if you want to know what DM thinks, here’s what he has to say: “The clearest benefactor of miles' injury is Ha Seung Jin, who should put up a consistent 12/8 with 2 blocks.” Of course, he’s kidding.

Thanks everyone for the great questions!

Game 15 Open Thread: SA @ Dallas Mavericks

Thu, 01 Dec 2005 18:11:05 -0800

Minor Spurs goings on:

-Earlier this week the Spurs waived Alex Scales who played all of 20 seconds. SA is now back to the same roster it had to start the season.

-The official Spurs site has a nice wallpaper available for download. It depicts Manu's backdoor reverse layup alley-oop from the Lakers game.

Starting lineups:

SA (11-3, 5-2 away)
PG Tony Parker
SG Manu Ginobili (questionable)
SF Bruce Bowen
PF Tim Duncan
C Rasho Nesterovic

DAL (10-4, 5-1 home)
PG Jason Terry
SG Marquis Daniels
SF Josh Powell
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Erick Dampier

DAL will be without the services of their best perimeter defender Josh Howard who's out three weeks with a sprained ankle. (Three weeks?) Unfortunately the Spurs may not be able to take full advantage because The Sickness may sit as well. He has a "jammed ankle" of unknown cause. Stackhouse is still out due to his trick knee.

The injuries have taken the luster off what could have been a big game (for this time of year anyway). DAL pounded the Spurs earlier this season as Finley went 1-6 in his return. The Mavericks also pummeled SA in a meaningless game at the end of last season. I am going to repost what I had to say back then (when I could actually write worth a damn):

The rest of today's Wilco lyric is "...And it doesn't seem to mean anything" and it goes out to Jerry Stackhouse and the Dallas Mavericks. This past Thursday they won the NBA Championship in decisive fashion, crushing the Spurs by 36 points. Oh wait, that's not it. This past Thursday the Mavericks earned a trip to the NBA finals by sweeping the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. No, that's not right either. The Mavericks, in resounding fashion, locked up a division title by bludgeoning a rival Spurs team. Hmm, that's wrong, too.

On Thursday, the Mavericks beat a Spurs team without its best player on the second game of a back to back. Ginobili and Parker played a combined 40 minutes. The Spurs shot 0-12 from three. For some reason the entire Dallas team whooped it up the whole second half. Darrell Armstrong was waving towels, the bench was standing up most of the time and Stackhouse was talking trash. Afterwards he said, regarding Duncan: "He would've made a difference," Stackhouse said, smiling, "but I don't think he would've made a 40-point difference." He continued on with "I think we were able to put them on their heels with our defense," Stackhouse said and culminated with the following:

"About the only thing that went wrong for the Mavericks was letting Mike Wilks hit a short jumper with 13.3 seconds left, preventing them from giving up their fewest points. Team owner Mark Cuban told the players on the bench how close they were, so they were all standing up and rooting for one last defensive stand.

"They just got a lucky little putback," Stackhouse said."

I just don't get it. This game meant nothing. The only thing the Mavericks could be happy about is not embarassing themselves. They weren't even playing for playoff positioning. San Antonio was without their best player, intentionally limiting the minutes of their other two best players and clearly threw in the towel (in terms of who was playing) with 18 minutes to go. What is Dallas so happy about? And why would they do anything to piss off the Spurs? Which they clearly did: sometime in the second half Duncan ripped up a stat sheet one of the coaches was holding and said "This means nothing."

The Spurs were in a similar position a couple of weeks ago; they played a depleted Sonics team at the SBC center and crushed them. The Sonics never even had a lead. And the game actually meant something in the sense that the #2 seed was in doubt at the time and this particular game determined the tie-breaker. It was just another game to the Spurs. No laughing it up or spouting off incendiary quotes to the reporters afterword.

Needless to say, a post season series between these two teams would have a little something extra.

tion that is apparently necessary for them to play at their best.

Tonight's line: SA -3
Tonight's total: 187.5
My pick: SA
Matty da Blade's plays: SA | Over
The Spurs are 6-8 ATS this year. I am 3-11. Da Blade is 8-5-1 ATS | 3-3 TOT.

This is an open thread. I don't know why I keep writing that. They're all open threads.

O Dallas ... Checking In on the Mavs

Wed, 30 Nov 2005 08:46:41 -0800

As if you needed anyone to tell you differently, Dirk Nowitzki is the unquestioned star of this team. Even when his shot isn’t falling, like the past couple games, where he’s shot a miserable 17-for-51, Dirk is still able to be a real asset. He still puts plenty of points on the board, makes his free throws, hits some 3s, grabs a ton lot of boards and throws in a block or steal. But there are some interesting trends for Dirk so far this year. He’s attempting 19.6 shots per game so far, which is the highest in his career. He’s being looked to even more on offense and seems to be taking more shots that he creates on his own, which aren’t always the highest percentage shots, hence his 44.7% shooting, lowest since his rookie season. He’s never shot below 46%, and you’d like to think he can at least get back to that number, but when you then see that he’s shooting a remarkable 46% from 3-point land on nearly 5 attempts per game, you start to think that it might actually get worse, not better. His owners would probably take the 1% hit in FG% to get an entire extra 3 per game, but that might be a bit much to ask. Dirk’s steals and blocks are also down from recent years, but you can feel more comfortable chalking that up to a small sample size so far. Earlier this week I talked about Kirk Hinrich not getting as many steals as past years, and then he turns around with a 5-steal game last night. Dirk has averaged between 1.0 and 1.4 steals and between 1.0 and 1.5 blocks each of the last five seasons. He’s at 0.5 and 1.0 right now, but it’s hard to see any reason why he shouldn’t end up at his averages. His assists are lower than any season since his rookie, but that’s one more likely to stay that way, given that he’s shooting even more. He scared some owners earlier this year with back problems, but he never missed a game and has never missed more than six in any season. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is, and that always makes him one of the best guys to put together a deal for.

I slotted Jason Terry at #32 on my preseason rankings, a bit higher than most other places I saw. But it was pretty much a no-brainer – here’s a guy who managed to finish 30th on the player rater last year in just 30 mpg. Now he was going to be locked in as the starting PG and #2 scoring option and he missed 9 games in the first six years of his career. This is the kind of guy to have on your team, because his perceived value is almost always lower than his actual value. And that’s the whole key to success, after all. He’s at #36 on the player rater right now and should stay in that general area all season. He’s a point guard who’s averaging just 4.1 apg, so it’s possible his owner is frustrated at the lack of assists. If you can make a move for him, I would highly recommend it. Like Mike Bibby, he’s a point guard, but is really more of a scorer and has never really racked up the assists. Save for a 7.4 apg season in Atlanta, he’s been between 4.9 and 5.7 in all of his other seasons besides his rookie campaign. He’ll likely finish around 5 per game, which is still a plus. He doesn’t have a standout number in any single category, which is another reason why his perceived value is probably lower than it truly is. But except for rebounds, he contributes across the board. OK, his 0.4 blocks will drop back down to his normal 0.2, but that’s normal for a PG. But it’s time to start considering whether he really has become a lights-out shooter. He never shot above 43.6% in Atlanta, but in his first year in Dallas he managed to shoot 50%. It was on just 9.3 shots per game, far down from 15 or so he averaged in Atlanta, so that seemed to be the logical explanation. But in 14 shots per game this season he’s still at a sterling 49%, and he’s even shooting more 3s. He’s still a 44% career shooter, and there’s still plenty of reason to except a somewhat precipitous drop in that percentage. But even keeping it in the 45-46% range will help him keep plenty of value there.

Erick Dampier is one of those guys you just don’t want to mess with. He’s a pretty confounding player, actually. Just five minutes into last night’s game against the Bucks, Dampier had 6 points and 3 boards and seemed to be on his way to one of his good games. But in 23 more minutes he went 0-for-2 from the field and scored just a single point. This really isn’t that out of the ordinary for Dampier, either. The Mavs try to establish him as an inside presence early on, but he either gets himself into foul trouble or loses interest and the Mavs decide to go with DeSagana Diop at center or just use a smaller lineup. Dampier’s had just three useful games this season out of 14. That’s not a very good percentage. If you have him on your team, he’s the kind of guy that will make you make sure you draft two reliable centers the next season. Well, assuming you play in a two center league, which you should, because that can really separate the fantasy boys from the fantasy men. Depending on what league you are in, there are anywhere from 8 to 12 reliable fantasy centers around, most likely. And that includes guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Raef Lafrentz who are prone to throwing up clunkers. As for Diop, yes, he blocks shots, but that is truly all he does. If you're starting him, you are probably in the middle of the pack, at best.

Devin Harris I’ve written plenty about already. You know I love him, and Avery Johnson seems to like him too, as evidenced by all of the crunch time PT he’s been getting. But he still doesn’t want to start him. I mean, Darrell Armstrong getting the nod over you is one thing. He’s a seasoned vet who can bring a defensive intensity. But when an undrafted rookie like Josh Powell gets the starting nod before you do, that’s saying something. He’s still intriguing in the deepest of leagues, but since the very durable Terry is the one that’s blocking him from a starting gig, it’s hard to see Harris being a no-brainer fantasy starter this year. In time. I wrote about Marquis Daniels recently, too. He’s just playing a lot more passively this year. Here’s a guy who averaged 7.3 FGA per game in 18.6 mpg in his rookie season and 8.4 FGA per game in 23.5 mpg last season. So this season he’s averaging 33.2 mpg. At those rates, he should be averaging 12.4 FGA per game. But instead he’s at just 8.6. You can blame some of this on the me-first tendencies of many of his teammates – guys like Dirk, Terry, Josh Howard, Keith Van Horn, even Devin Harris are usually looking out for themselves. So Daniels has picked up some of slack with a career high 2.9 apg, but this isn’t an impressive number or really out of line with what he should be averaging with his increased time.

If Jerry Stackhouse ever comes back, it’s a lot more likely that he’ll mess up other players’ fantasy value instead of actually having any on his own. A guy who can only score, but does so while shooting 40% and doesn’t even start is the ultimate drag. If you can steal Josh Howard off his owner right now, I’d do it. It’s tough to make an offer for a guy who is out for two weeks, especially a fair offer, but Howard is a legit top 50 player and even though ankle injuries have a tendency to linger, I’ll trust in youth and think that he’ll have an easier time putting it behind him for good than an older player might. OK, that’s all the time for today…

Terry's Buzzer Beater Lifts Mavs Past Raptors

Mon, 28 Nov 2005 23:27:27 -0800

Dirk Nowitzki scored 24 of his 29 points in the second half and Jason Terry nailed a runner at the buzzer as the Mavericks posted a 93-91 victory over the Toronto Raptors.

Overall Rankings: 31 to 60

Tue, 18 Oct 2005 09:59:37 -0800

1 to 30

31. Chauncey Billups – We love PGs here at FBB, and they don’t come more rock solid than this one.
32. Jason Terry – No, seriously, we love PGs, especially ones who were able to finish 30th on the player rater while only getting 30 mpg. The FG% will go down (way down), but everything else will go up.
33. Jason Richardson – J-Rich has only improved during his four years, and the Warriors are primed to be this year’s version of the Suns.
34. Kirk Hinrich – News that Duhon and not Gordon will be his starting backcourt mate is a bit of a buzzkill.
35. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s proven he can stay healthy, but there are many weapons on Cleveland, whereas last year he was one of just three.
36. Ben Wallace – That FT% hurts more than you think and he’s not the same as he was three years ago; still, there’s hope for a contract year rebound. Literally.
37. Dwight Howard – It’s easy to get too excited about “what might be,” but he’s a stud in the making, no doubt.
38. Emeka Okafor – Hope for a few more blocks than last year and that his back doesn’t get too cranky.
39. Shaquille O’Neal – And even this might be too high. Let’s talk about Shaq for a moment. It’s near impossible to win with him on your team, that’s why you can’t do it unless he’s your fourth rounder, because you need that many studs to help you finish near the top in the other seven categories. Because kiss FT% goodbye. And for the love of god, don’t do something stupid and draft someone like Ray Allen or Chauncey Billups to “offset” Shaq. That’s just about the worst thing you can do, because it won’t even come close to bringing you out of the cellar, and you are wasting the value of a player like that. But therein lies the problem. Since you have to wait until the fourth (maybe third) round to realistically draft Shaq, unless you have already drafted players that compliment him, you probably can’t even afford to draft him anyway.
40. Lamar Odom – Could be primed for a huge year, but this is his seventh season, so time might be running out; just not enough 3s, steals or blocks to be truly great.
41. Larry Hughes – The steals and assists will go down, but he’s a solid all-around contributor.
42. Andre Igoudala – Absolutely love his all around game; he’s an Artest in the making. That’s a compliment, by the way.
43. Manu Ginobili – If only the Spurs weren’t so deep that he was limited to just 30 mpg.
44. Corey Maggette – His FT% dominance can’t be overlooked, but other than that he’s an oft-injured, points-only swingman.
45. Richard Jefferson – Like Odom and Maggette, lack of help in steals, blocks and 3s hurts his value.
46. Michael Redd – Not a favorite around here, but he is top dog in Milwaukee, which counts for something.
47. Andre Miller – Has missed three games in his career and averaged 8.2 apg after the break last year; that’s a nice and steady mid-round pick if there ever was one.
48. Marcus Camby – Injuries are already bothering him; has the talent to justify being taken here (much earlier, actually), but he will always be a risk.
49. Zach Randolph – If he can go 20/10 with percentages of 50 and 80, you can look past the rest of his game; he’s certainly The Man in Portland, which is mostly good, but might hurt his FG%.
50. Rasheed Wallace – Center eligibility, 3s, blocks, durability make for a nice package.
51. Cuttino Mobley – Bombs away. And away, and away, and away; could be back to old 40 mpg self.
52. Donyell Marhsall – Have to think he’ll get his minutes once the rotation shakes out; fantasy God with enough PT.
53. Rafer Alston – Moves into a perfect situation, especially if Sura won’t be available.
54. Carlos Boozer – Not much at all separating him from Randolph.
55. Richard Hamilton – Don’t take him any higher, but he’s durable and consistent.
56. Tyson Chandler – We think he’ll be a better guy to have on your team than Camby this year.
57. Josh Smith – If you can deal with some ups and downs, you’ll likely have a first place blocks finish to show for it.
58. Chris Webber – Could be the steal of the draft at this spot … but probably not.
59. Josh Howard – If Avery plays him as much as he says he’s going to, this will end up being low.
60. Bobby Simmons – Going for steady, all-around contributors in the middle rounds isn’t a bad strategy.

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Four

Wed, 28 Sep 2005 09:43:18 -0800

(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team L: Jason Richardson (Lamar Odom, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)
Team K: Larry Hughes (Pau Gasol, Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team J: Zydraunas Ilgauskas (Chauncey Billups, Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team I: Rashard Lewis (Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team H: Michael Redd (Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team G: Kirk Hinrich (Steve Francis, Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team F: Richard Jefferson (Manu Ginobili, Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team E: Andre Miller (Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team D: Marcus Camby (Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team C: Andre Iguodala (Baron Davis, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Ron Artest, Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team A: Jason Terry (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)

In round four of our mock draft, we’re seeing basically an extension of round three. With only about one round left of “solid” players (more on that later in the week), your goal in the fourth has to be to start setting yourself up for the later rounds. You want to be worried about team needs, but at the same time, you want to be able to take the best player available (BPA). There’s nothing worse than really stretching for a guy this early just because your team is really lacking in a category so far. So what you’ll see happening in our mock draft is that teams are settling for someone who at least comes close to qualifying as a team need and a BPA.

The fourth round, perhaps more than any other, is where your draft preparation will really come into play. If you’ve ranked players about 50 or 60 deep, it will make your fourth round much earlier. All you have to do is take your draft sheet, identify the 4 or 5 highest-ranked players, and then choose the one among those who best serves your needs. Take, for example, Team H. The top available players there (according to our lists) were Redd, Hinrich, Jefferson, and Miller. We would have those guys ranked with Jefferson first, then Hinrich, followed by Redd and Miller. However, we felt like this team needed some scoring punch, as it’s possible that neither Dwight Howard nor Steve Nash will put up 16 ppg this year. The highest scoring player among our BPA’s was Michael Redd, so he was the choice there, despite the fact that we had ranked Jefferson and Hinrich ahead of him.

So, what teams do you think look the best so far?

The Jason Terry factor

Mon, 09 May 2005 10:24:01 -0800

Check out what's going on in and around Tucson, with the Citizen's new events calendar.

Media Watch: April Edition

Tue, 12 Apr 2005 18:02:52 -0800

Horked from www.sports.IGN.com

The Bad News: So the Supes are limping, figuratively and literally, into the playoffs.
The Good News: They're finally getting some pub. Check the linkage:

>IGN Interview with Nick Collison
He's on the front page of their sports section even. And looky thar: they also chat with our old pal, GP.

>SLAM shows more love for the 206
I love when SLAM loves Seattle. But maybe there is such a thing as too much love. Like, ain't it strange how Ray Allen's hit a mini-slump since his face got plastered on the cover? Not content to put the voodoo on just the Sonics' best player, this month's issue of SLAM might just hex the entire city:

Sonics PG duo of Luke "Frodo" Ridnour and Antonio Daniels featured
City Game section sizes up Seattle's game through the years and at all levels of comp. There's some nice reminiscing here--Seattle U's Elgin Baylor (not the Clips'), Spencer Haywood, '79 Sonics, Reign Man, the Storm even. Worth the $4.99 cover price alone.
Piece on Franklin High alum Jason Terry
Open letter to ex-Gonzaga Bulldog, Dan "The Disaster" Dickau, tracing the unspoken "beef" between the mag and he.

Oh, and visit www.slamonline.com and you'll find those same articles, plus the online edition of last month's issue, including the Ray Allen feature.

>Fox Sports.com : Best pro teams to not win a championship
The 95-96 Sonics come in at number 9 in the top 10. Not exactly pub for the current team, and not really a good thing to be recognized for, but it's Sonics pub nonetheless. The 2001 Mariners are No. 3.

Nowitzki's MRI reveals no damage to injured knee

Sat, 09 Apr 2005 16:26:14 -0800

Yahoo! Sports - NBA - Nowitzki's MRI reveals no damage to injured knee:

"An MRI on Dirk Nowitzki's injured right knee revealed no damage Wednesday, and the Dallas Mavericks forward was listed as day to day.

Nowitzki, the only player in the league ranked in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding, was hurt in the closing minutes of Dallas' 114-105 victory Tuesday night when he was undercut by Orlando's Andre Barrett. He later said his knee ``felt weird.''"

It seems pretty likely that teams in the playoffs, or fighting for a top roto spot, would have Dirk on their team... so this is probably important to them. And also to people who have moved on from fantasy basketball and are eagerly awaiting the excitment of the playoffs. I don't think I've seen a playoff look this wide open since... well, since before Kobe and Shaq were together... and even then, you had the Spurs and the Bulls. This is really the time for teams to step up. I mean, you've got the Heat coming out of the East, but they'll probably have to beat the Pistons and/or Pacers to get there.

The West is really anybody's call... I was all for the Spurs until Duncan got injured, but now, it would seem that the Suns have moved into contention. And you've got the Cinderella Sonics... And with Dirk, Stackhouse, Finley, Dampier, and Jason Terry, the Mavericks are looking pretty good right now.

That's my quick and dirty playoff preview. I could expound upon it later, but I've got a lot of stuff to do right now...

Count it.

An NBA fun Fact

Tue, 15 Mar 2005 10:31:21 -0800

Came across my desk, thought it would add to the minutae of information

Number of lineups played per team through march 14th

1 Atlanta        434 lineups used
   2 Boston         319 lineups used
   3 Charlotte      597 lineups used
   4 Chicago        292 lineups used
   5 Cleveland      257 lineups used
   6 Dallas         374 lineups used
   7 Denver         347 lineups used
   8 Detroit        324 lineups used
   9 Golden State   396 lineups used
10 Houston        385 lineups used
11 Indiana        428 lineups used
12 LA Clippers    328 lineups used
13 LA Lakers      243 lineups used
14 Memphis        350 lineups used
15 Miami          251 lineups used
16 Milwaukee      298 lineups used
17 Minnesota      209 lineups used
18 New Jersey     527 lineups used
19 New Orleans    382 lineups used
20 New York       358 lineups used
21 Orlando        325 lineups used
22 Philadelphia   281 lineups used
23 Phoenix        233 lineups used
24 Portland       336 lineups used
25 Sacramento     306 lineups used
26 San Antonio    254 lineups used
27 Seattle        170 lineups used
28 Toronto        253 lineups used
29 Utah           386 lineups used
30 Washington     321 lineups used

The Mavs current injury free starting lineup of Damp, Fin, Dirk, Josh Howard and Jason Terry has played a total of 293 minutes together.

The Suns starting lineup of Nash, Marion, Amare, Richardson and Johnson has played a total of 1057 minutes together

Sacs New starting lineup of bibby, Songalia, mobley,Peja and Skinner has played 85 minutes together so far.

The Spurs starting five of TD, Rasho, Ginobbli, Bowen and Parker has played 575 mins together

And the Sonics starting 5 of James, Lewis, Allen, Ridnour and Evans has played 666 mins together.

On Tap: The Dallas Mavericks

Fri, 04 Mar 2005 16:41:01 -0800

Last time these two met it was a fast-forward on TiVo evening — the Lakers were down 13 in the first quarter and the Maverick’s shot 59% (eFG%) for the game. That tells you all you need to know.

Since that Jan. 5 meeting, the Mavericks have been playing better and better, the Lakers have lost four and a row (and have not lost five in a row since 1994, back when Vlade led the team in scoring). The handful of smart writers at ESPN.com are talking about Dallas. The Mavs are beating teams like Miami, Phoenix and Seattle.

Dirk and his new haircut are getting MVP talk, and they should. He has a PER of 26.38, fifth best in the NBA. He’s fourth in the league in points per 40 minutes at 27.2, with a healthy 1.14 points per shot attempt. He leads the league in +/- (adjusted for 48 minutes) at +19, suggesting he is the most valuable player to his own team in the league. His defense is not great (an opponents PER of 16.3) but it has improved each of the last two years. Heck, he's even got his own advice column.

Dallas has the fourth most efficient offense in the NBA, averaging 106.8 points per 100 possessions (as an update, the Lakers are seventh at 104.5). They still like to move the ball quickly, taking 42% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (compared to 37% for the Lakers). As a team, they are shooting 49.1% eFG% on the season, seventh best in the league.

But the days of the all offense, no defense Mavericks are gone. They are ninth in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 101 points per 100 possessions. Teams are shooting 47.3% eFG% against them this season.

Last time these two met, Mavs point guard Jason Terry torched Chucky Atkins for 28 points. One break for the Lakers is that Eric Dampier remains out, and with him out the Mavs have been out rebounded significantly the past two games. The Lakers need a big game inside to take advantage of that. Yes, I’m looking at you Chris Mihm. I’m also looking forward to the Odom/Nowitzki matchup tonight.

If the Lakers lose this game, they fall out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. If that’s not motivation to play the defense that was missing on the East Coast road swing than things are worse for this team than I think they are. And I don’t think their good.

As the Point Guard Turns

Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:05:54 -0800

Ah, the frustrations of fantasy basketball. Two players who I ve been begging to get more playing time finally get put into situations where they are going to see that time and I miss out on both of them. Bah. Lots and lots of post-deadline PG situations to look at today, so let s get to it. With most fantasy trading deadlines fast approaching, this could be the last real chance to improve your team for the stretch run.

The Celtics situation is far from resolved. After Gary Payton was shipped to Atlanta, Delonte West who played a total of 120 minutes in the NBA prior to the trade stepped directly into the starting lineup the past two games and in 37 mpg put up 17.5/5.0/2.5 with 2.5 3s, 1.5 steals and 1 block on 64% shooting. Wow. The assists are low, which isn t surprising, and he should be looked at as more of a SG than a PG. But the 3s and steals are very welcome, and he s obviously a hot pickup. That said, Payton could be back in the fold very shortly. The Celtics will probably welcome him back if he wants to come back, but you have to wonder, should they? In their two games without him, with their new lineup featuring the rejuvenated Antoine Walker and West, they ve won tough road games at Utah and (an admittedly Steve Nash-less) Phoenix. It could be that this lineup of fresh legs is the way to go. Grab, West, hold on to Payton, but if The Glove comes back, I wouldn t be surprised to see them both have middling value at best. In his first game with C-Webb, Allen Iverson racked up 14 assists. The guy s just having a phenomenal year. If the 76ers can get past the Celtics for the Atlantic Division crown, it will be hard to deny him the MVP. Jason Kidd is #7 on the 30-Day Rater. He ll be one of the more interesting draft choices next year. He s obviously still worthy of a first-round pick, but how many people will be scared by his knee? A quiet week for Rafer Alston, both production-wise and blowup-wise. I m sure his owners will take it, though. Only 29.7 mpg in his last three isn t reason for concern, but it s a slightly interesting trend to watch. If you can buy low on Stephon Marbury right now, I d do it. The Knicks only have three guards on their active roster and one of those is the always-fragile Penny Hardaway. Expect Steph to see close to 40 mpg from here on out and to put up big numbers.

The Pistons are clicking on all cylinders. Wait, I didn t even mean for it to come out that way. Even if Shaq is completely healthy come conference finals time, the Pistons are looking like the team to beat in the East. Chauncey Billups continues his strong play and Carlos Arroyo is thriving in his backup role. The Pistons will have one of the best PG duos in the league over the next three years should they hold onto both of them. I suppose that technically Jeff McInnis is the PG in Cleveland, even though I talk about LeBron here all the time. But I mean, there s no news to report and it sure is a lot more fun to talk about LBJ than Jeff McInnis. Random LeBron thought of the day: I have one of these. I was thinking it d be going for more. Oh well. It was bittersweet seeing Kirk Hinrich lay it on my beloved Wiz on Friday night. Check out his mpg in the last six 42.8. Expect this to continue as the Bulls push not only for a playoff spot, but first round home-court advantage. He s still not getting as many assists as you d like, but he s going to be a stud from here on out. As for Chris Duhon, well he s seen 29.8 mpg in his last four, including three games of 30+. He s hitting open 3s, getting assists and a few steals. That said, he s #119 on the 15-Day Rater. Still, if you have PG games to make up, he s not a bad option. I do other things besides obsess fantasy basketball. In fact, I m in a band. (We both are, actually.) One thing I always have problems with is writing lyrics. Always drawing a blank. Maybe I ll write a song about how much I hate Jamaal Tinsley. The chorus could go, Day-to-day, why don t you just go away? Does that sound like a hit to you? Hmm, oh well. In any case, Tinsley is on the short list for most frustrating player in the league this year. Great numbers when he s out there, but he s absolutely killing his owners right now by being on the bench (not the IL), at a time in the season where most owners are cycling through all of their players in order to use their games in hand. It s really starting to look like he won t be a contributor the rest of the year. (Yes, I m trying reverse psychology. Yes, I realize that actually saying that means it won t work.) Anthony Johnson is still not an option he needs to play basically a perfect game just to be an average fantasy contributor. We re past the point of saying Mo Williams should be picked up. The question is who are his comparables as far as value for the rest of the season. BV pointed out his numbers earlier today, and they are tasty. Here s his deal: plenty of assists, very few 3s, average steals and scoring. Think normal Andre Miller for a good comp. If you need assists more than 3s, he s your man.

The Damon Jones binge continues. I like him better than Quentin Richardson for 3s from here on out. Gilbert Arenas got in one last monster game before Larry Hughes returns, going for 43/7/3 with 7 3s and 2 steals. Watching him and Mike Bibby duel was really a treat. There was also a Steve Blake sighting, which I couldn t let pass. In 34 minutes he went for 17/5/5 with 2 3s and a steal. It s all about opportunity, people. There s just not that much separating Blake from Dan Dickau. Remember when the Magic were one of the year s better stories? When they finish 37-45, four games out of the playoffs, those memories will be even more distant than they are now. Still, at least they re getting Jameer Nelson in there. I was clamoring for it, and in his first two starts he was good for 13.5/8.0/6.5 with 1 steal on 50% shooting. Now there s some talk that he creates bad defensive matchups and that his spot in the starting lineup isn t completely secure. Eh. I d still take my chances. I maintain he ll be a Jamaal Tinsley type, although it looks like he ll be more valuable on the boards and he might not his as many 3s as of yet (it took Tinsley a few years). Hopefully he won t inspire me to write hateful songs about him. Oh right, I didn t get him, so he won t. As for how this affects Steve Francis he s still the same incredibly overrated player he s always been. And now he ll have fewer assists. Brevin Knight has seen 30+ in two straight. You know what you re getting. He s like a rich man s Rick Brunson. Or something like that. Tyronn Lue alert! In his four games since returning from injury, he s received 36 minutes, and put up 15.3/2.8/7.0 with 0.5 steals and 1.0 3s. Solid, but a few things to notice: The assists are a bit high, expect him to be closer to 5. The 3s and steals are about right. He should be closer to 1.5 3s, but he s never been a top thief. He s seeing plenty of PT now, and should for the near future. But I ll echo the rest in thinking that those 13 year-old kids at the end of the Hawks bench might start taking his time as we get closer to April.

There s an emerging trend in San Antonio, and that s of Tony Parker being the secondary scoring option behind Tim Duncan. He averaged 20.4 ppg in February compared to Manu Ginobili s 16.5. Man is that PG situation in Dallas frustrating. After scoring 18 points in three games, Jason Terry goes off for 27 on Saturday. Don Nelson needs to keep him in the lineup, although it should be said that in Terry s two best games in February, the Mavs lost both times. That probably doesn t mean much. You have to stick with him and hope that maybe Brad Miller lays another one into Devin Harris, and Darrell Armstrong too, while he s at it. Although that would certainly upset this guy. It s just wrong, I tell you. Who s the one who s been yapping endlessly about Mike James all year? Me. Who snagged him the moment he got traded to Houston. BV. That stands for Bastard Verymuch. Hmm, I could have probably done better. Oh well. So out of all of the newly valuable PGs, it should come as no shock that I like James the best. Bob Sura s on the IL, Rod Strickland was given the boot, Andre Barrett s on the IL yeah, Moochie Norris and his hair are around, but this is James s show, and that was very evident as they put him in the starting lineup in his first game and he was good for 19/2/3 with 3 steals and 3 3s in 34 minutes. This is an especially good game, but he will be solid. Don t expect tons of assists, but the 3 and steals will be there. Until Sura gets back, he s got every chance to be as good as, say, Chucky Atkins. Remember, Atkins is the 62nd best player in the league this year, fantasy-wise. That s good. Ho-hum in Memphis. Jason Williams is the man, but you ll have to deal with games like Saturday when Earl Watson is the better player and J-Will gets only 23 minutes. I like Mike James more as long as Sura s out, unless you really need assists. We got our first look at post-trade deadline New Orleans and it wasn t pretty at all. That s a very Hubie-esque looking box score, with 10 guys seeing at least 14 minutes and no one logging more than 35. Dan Dickau stepped up with 22 points, 3 assists and 3 3s, but if you can sell high right now, you might want to try. He s playing for a contract, so you know he ll look to put up numbers, but his PT is in the hands of Byron Scott. As for Speedy Claxton, he might be able to salvage some value, but if they keep sharing time like that in the Big Easy, it will be tough for anyone to really distinguish themselves.

We re approaching 2,000 words. Sports Guy would be proud. My employer wouldn t be. Luke Ridnour is on the verge of uselessness. I guess you can throw out yesterday s game because it was a blowout early on, but that s still one decent game out of his last four. He s lucky Antonio Daniels has hit a rough patch as well. It s unlikely Ridnour will be removed from the starting lineup all season, but he s no Mike James. Sam Cassell has been every bit as frustrating as Jamaal Tinsley this year. Even more so. Sammy owners, I feel for ya. He s slowly working his way to the point where he can re-enter the starting lineup. With Latrell Sprewell looking like he might have finally turned it around (someone should fine me for saying that), if Sammy can come back the Wolves can make that push to get swept by the Spurs in the first round. Continue to be patient. But then again, what else can you do? You think Andre Miller was glad to see Earl Boykins banished to the bench. Maybe it s a mental thing. Boykins still saw almost 30 mpg off the bench, just slightly below what he was getting as a starter, but it still made all the difference in the world for Miller. Hopefully George Karl makes this a permanent change. It s best for everyone; even Boykins might hold his value. But probably not. He won t make it to the line 16 times every game. Yesterday was the first time Damon Stoudamire was held to single digits since Jan. 2. He s been over 20 only once in the past five games. Is his run over, or should you buy low? The minutes are still there, so I m buying (relatively) low. Keith McLeod should be a top point guard option from here on out. Ha, just making sure you re still paying attention this far in. You should be, I mean, is your job really any more exciting? Well, it s gotta be more exciting than the Jazz PG situation, at least.

Leandro Barbosa got plenty of PT with Steve Nash out (36.3 mpg), but didn t light it up, all things considered: 15.3/4.7/3.7 with 1.7 steals and 1 3. Very solid, but on the Suns it s easy to have high expectations. Since Nash is likely to miss a couple more games as we wind down, he s a good guy to have around for single game fill-ins. I always say how much I love Mike Bibby. No, not that like that. Not entirely like that, at least. He s always been better in real life than fantasy, but this is the year that s changed, and with Chris Webber taking his Monistat 7 to Philly, Bibby will be a total stud the rest of this year and next year and the year after, etc. He s #13 on the Rater, #4 in the last 30 Days and just might be a late-first rounder next year. Maybe. Chucky Atkins will be up and down with Kobe Bryant back, but his 3s will keep him valuable. Rick Brunson is fine for those of you who need assists, but he just doesn t shoot/score. He was getting a lot more 3s last time he saw lots of PT. Not this time. Poor man s Brevin Knight, right? And finally, the Warriors. Good to see Baron Davis out there. Hard to see him coming off the bench too much longer, and the Warriors probably want to keep his minutes down so as not to risk an injury in a meaningless season (insert Warriors meaningless season joke here), but he might want to show his new home crowd that he s still got it. Derek Fisher owners should get ready for the letdown. After averaging 43 mpg in his last four, he was back down to 33 last night. Still put up an awesome 19/4/2 with 3 steals and 3 3s, once his minutes slip into the 20s, his time will be up. That said, it s not like he isn t signed for another 5 years, so the Warriors might as well keep running him out there because like it or not, he s a part of their future.