HOOPLOG: Josh Childress

Head-to-Head's Up (2/20-2/26): Trade Deadline Edition

Fri, 17 Feb 2006 09:54:14 -0800

Well I’m glad the NBA (David Stern) came to its senses and invited Gilbert Arenas to play in Houston this weekend after all. Too bad Gil had to go and finish the first half of the season with a 4-for-22 effort and 6 turnovers at Dallas. Ouch.
So we have All-Star festivities to get through this weekend and then we’re back to the real games and hopefully an exciting week full of blockbuster trades. Here’s looking at you, week 2/20-2/26.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Portland, Seattle.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LAC, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Denver, Miami, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.

Season-long trade rumors are finally coming to fruition this week. Darko is moving to Disney World, former Terrapin Chris Wilcox swapped area codes with Vlad Rad, and Stevie Franchise just may get another ‘change of scenery’ if Isaiah Thomas continues his quest to bury the Knicks six-feet-under. Keep a close eye on pending trades as several players are sure to find themselves in new situations that could really boost their second half value.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Josh Smith/Childress, G/F – The reigning Slam-Dunk champ just put up career-highs of 21 points and 15 boards, while fellow swingman Josh Childress also scored a season-high 21 in a win over the Lakers Wednesday. We’re keeping our fingers crossed that Al Harrington will be asked to pack his bags before the Feb. 23rd deadline. Josh & Josh would immediately reap the benefits should Harrington (and his 37 mpg) depart. Smith averages an incredible 2.3 blks in only 27.5 mpg, and Childress contributes across the board but especially in steals with 1.2 spg in 28.4 minutes. Hopefully both will see 30-35 minutes a night the rest of the way and improve on their already respectable numbers. The youngsters have four games next week so get them in your lineups.

Delonte West, PG – LeBron (43/12/11) and Paul Pierce (50/7/8) may have stolen the show in an overtime thriller the other night, but Delonte also filled his stat line with 15/10/8 and 3 blocks. One of the best waiver wire pickups of the year, the versatile guard just keeps on truckin’. Jefferson, Perkins, and Wally are banged up, so West should have plenty of scoring chances in four contests next week.

Anthony Johnson, PG – Jamaal Tinsley is starting to make Marcus Camby and Fred Taylor look like iron men. He’s only appeared in 23 games this season and hasn’t been healthy for a full year since his rookie campaign. Veteran point guard Anthony Johnson has been handed the reins and asked to do what he can to help salvage Indiana’s season. A.J. has been a member of the Pacers’ starting five since the end of December and averages nearly 30 mpg as a starter. Usually just a borderline fantasy starter in deep leagues, Johnson’s hot hand (19/4/5 with 2 threes and 1.3spg in last 3 outings) makes a decent plug-and-play for four games next week.

Darko Milicic, F/C – If there ever was an ideal situation for the young 7-footer, Orlando is it. Darko’s playing time was so limited in Detroit that analyzing his stats does not really give you an indication of his potential. He’s shooting an impressive 51.5% from the floor, yet a miserable 37.5% from the charity stripe this season. But of course, his 17-of-33 FGs and 3-of-8 from the line are such small samples that they are essentially rendered meaningless. If one were to ascertain anything from his stats it would have to be his impressive 15 blocks in only 140 minutes of play this season. He’s sure to see plenty of playing time on his new team, and starting alongside league-leading rebounder Dwight Howard (12.6 rpg) seems to be a perfect fit for the Serbian big man. If you’re feelin’ Darko, get him in your lineups right away. Let's just hope for the best.

Chris Wilcox, F/C – Assuming Evans/Fortson get shipped out of town sometime before next Thursday, Wilcox will have a great opportunity to excel as the new starting PF in Seattle. Now that he lives in Starbucks capital, USA, maybe some grande caramel macchiatos can help Chris wake up and get his head in the game. The former Terp has immense talent and this appears to be a good situation for him. The Sonics frontcourt has lacked athleticism and been clogged up with the likes of Evans/Swift/Collison/Petro/Fortson for too long. Wilcox brings much needed explosiveness up front and could average 15 and 10 if he's focused and motivated. Think of him as a younger/healthier Kenyon Martin, with center eligibility to boot.

Stash ‘em or at least keep on your radar:
Antoine Walker – He was back in the SLU for a couple games before the break (scored 26 pts and hit six treys on 2/15). Employee #8 needs a starting gig to be a consistent fantasy contributor, and he may just land one if traded to the right team.
Shaun Livingston – Prep-to-pro point guard struggling in his second season, "the next Magic Johnson" has started three of the Clips last five games, averaging 6.7 assists in those contests. The potential is there for a monster second half if 36-year-old Cassell were to go down with an injury.
Earl Watson – Incessant trade rumors surrounding Denver’s reserve PG are making me nauseous. He could have some value if given a starting job somewhere (New York?)
Nazr Mohammed – The big man averaged 11 pts and 8 rebounds for the Knicks last season. He has been stuck on the Spurs’ bench all year, but exploded for 18 pts and 20 boards Wednesday night at Philly. He could make some noise if he were to take the starting spot from Rasho, or perhaps filling in for an injured Duncan.

Forget about ‘em and move on:
Larry Hughes – just went under the knife again and will be lucky to return for the playoffs.
Emeka Okafor – they’ve been saying he’ll be back in 3-5 weeks for over a month now. Word out of Charlotte is that he’ll likely sit for the rest of the season.
Jameer Nelson – Specialists can’t figure out what is wrong with his foot, and he is out for at least another three weeks. Even if he returns, he’ll have to fight for playing time with a crowded Orlando backcourt.
Sebastian Telfair – Stephon Marbury’s little cousin was benched in favor of the Blake/Dixon combo. Bassy needs to learn the pro game and improve on his "Dick Cheney-esque" shooting (36.6%FG) before he can be a reliable fantasy force. Maybe next year.
Marko Jaric – Yes, he may be traded, but he is just stinkin’ it up this season.
Deron Williams – Did they really draft him ahead of Chris Paul? Williams is simply not a good fit for the Jazz and Jerry Sloan is not a good fit for fantasy owners.

Also… the Knicks/Magic exchanging Jamal Crawford and Steve Francis would help all parties involved (especially their fantasy owners).
Enjoy the All-Star festivities and be ready to pounce once those trades are announced.

Head On

Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:53:10 -0800

So the popular pickup in leagues across the country last night was surely Luther Head. I must give credit to the guy in my league who snagged him a few hours before last night’s tip off. Good thinking. Head started, played 43 minutes and poured in 28 points, grabbed 7 boards, hit 5 3s, made 9-of-17 from the field, all 5 free throws, and added 3 assists. Quite a game. Still, color me skeptical that Head will be able to keep this up, or even come close. First off, the Rockets just don’t score enough so that anyone but Yao will have consistent value when Tracy McGrady is out. Yao is clearly the team’s first option, and they slow the game down to a crawl to get him involved. Usually there’s one player that manages to have a fantasy-worthy game in addition to Yao (who it should be noted is shooting 36-for-89 – 40% -- with T-Mac out compared to 44-for-76 – 58% with him in there). Maybe it will be David Wesley, maybe Derek Anderson, maybe Head. It’s risky to be counting on any of them. The more intriguing development is that if Head does manage to have a few more games close to this level, Rafer Alston might have a really, really hard time finding those 35 mpg he needs when he comes back. It’s looking worse and worse for Rafer everyday.

Some other recently won starting jobs and thoughts on them…

Jarvis Hayes – It’s well known that we’re Wizards fanatics around here, so it’s quite rare that I’ll miss a minute of any Wizards game. Over the past week this has caused me much frustration. In an effort to shake things up, Eddie Jordan replaced the struggling (putting it quite mildly) Antonio Daniels in the starting lineup with Jarvis Hayes. I’ll say this about Hayes – he is clearly the most improved player on the Wizards this year. He was drafted as a jump shooting specialist, but the thing was, over this first two years he could not shoot. He hit 40% and 39% of his shots in his first two seasons, and also had trouble staying healthy. But something has clicked this year. His jumper has always looked smooth and now it’s actually starting to fall, as Jarvis is connecting on 46% of his shots. His ideal range is out to 20 feet or so, he’s not a great three-point shooter, but he’s taking more than ever this year, and could connect on just over 1 per game if he keeps his starting job. He’s a good rebounder when he wants to, and the Wizards could really use him crashing the boards more, but he’ll never be much of a plus there. And that’s the rub with Jarvis’s fantasy game. He’ll never hit a ton of 3s, get many steals or blocks or score all that much. He got 31 minutes in his first start last night, and if he stays around that number he’ll be a very borderline fantasy play, because he’ll need to shoot a high percentage to have much value. Also, he’s no better than the fourth option on this team. Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will all get their production. Butler didn’t play as much last night, but it’s hard to see Eddie Jordan leaving him on the bench in favor of Jared Jeffries for too much longer. Hayes is worth a look if you have a roster spot to play with, but it’s hard to see him helping you out too much.

Jim Jackson – It’s hard to imagine anyone picked up JJ after his 0-for-7 stinker last night. Jackson entered the starting lineup with Leandro Barbosa out of action for a couple of weeks, but didn’t take advantage of the opportunity at all. But take a look at the minutes column – in his first game as a starter, JJ saw 35 minutes of action. Only Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, who played 42 minutes each, saw more time on the court. So if Mike D’Antoni was willing to keep JJ out there for 35 when he couldn’t hit a shot to save his life, it will be interesting to see what happens when the shot does start to fall. But that might be wishful thinking. JJ is shooting an almost impossibly bad 27% on the season, which is why he hadn’t seen more than 18 minute since the season opener before last night. Still, he’s a proven vet, and he did connect on 3 or more 3s in 18 games last season. He’s likely completely off most people’s radar right now, but there’s a slight chance he could erupt for a boat load of 3s in the next game or two. He’s worth keeping an eye on at least.

Josh Smith – So he’s making his way back into the starting lineup tonight, mercifully putting Josh Childress on the bench. Young guys coming off a strong second half, never trust ‘em. Wait, so that means Smith too, right? Eh, maybe. Anyway, Smith will move back into the starting lineup, but will that mean a big boost in his value? He played 27 and 28 minutes as a starter in the first two games of the season. Since he moved to the bench his PT has been very inconsistent, but he’s still managed to at least 30 minutes in four of those games. In those four contests that he’s seen at least 30 minutes his numbers are 11.3/5/1.8 with 1.3 steals and – here it is – 3 blocks. OK, the dude has a worse looking jump shot than your sister, as his 34% FG will attest, and every time I see him launch a jumper I cringe. If there is anyone who ¾ of his FGA should be dunks, layups, follows, alley-oops, it’s Smith. The point is, moving into the starting lineup is always a good thing. Even if he doesn’t see much more than the 30 minutes he was often getting off the bench, there is a much better chance he won’t see those killer 15 minute outings. Everything’s obviously up in the air in Atlanta, but Smith still has the potential to slot as the team’s #3 option on offense, behind Joe Johnson and Al Harrington. Smith’s blocks make him and obvious fantasy dream, but he’s a borderline play until he gets his rebounds and FG% back to where they were last year. If he can manage consistent time as a starter, I’d bet on both of those happening. I might still wait a game or two before plugging him back in there, but soon it will be time.

We’ll try to have something up on Friday, but we make no promises. Happy Thanksgiving.

Clippers/Hawks

Thu, 10 Nov 2005 18:19:00 -0800

Joining the action with 1:34 left in the first and the score tied at 23. Somehow, this is the only NBA game on tonight. Which is, of course, the only reason I'm watching it. Heck, it was either this or the end of "Superman II." And I know what happens in that.

It's just too bad that Shaun Livingtson is out (again), because he is really fun to watch—and he was looking even better this summer. But still, can't complain too much. Instead we've got Sam Cassell, Elton "Perennial All-Star Except He's A Clipper" Brand, Corey Maggette Cat Mobley and Chris Wilcox. Then, on the other side, Marvin Williams, Al Harrington, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, who should have found a way to wear No. 70,000,000 this year.

Steve Smith is announcing, which is rad. Always liked Smitty, he was gracious to a fault as a player and was always a class act. Still is.

Zeljko Rebraca? Daniel Ewing? Quinton Ross? These are your Los Angeles Clippers. Bummer that Daniel Ewing isn't wearing No. 33. Or Ewings, for that matter. Hell, if he came out in Ewings, he'd be my favorite player in the L, Blue Devil or not.

Is Tyronn Lue on the Hawks because of his championship experience?

The Hawks animated/live action promo spot is good, I guess, but "Rise Up"? What other choice do they have?

There's someone named "Edwards" playing center for the Hawks—No. 54—and I have absolutely no idea who he is. None. He's replaced by Zaza Pachulia, who really should have signed with a playoff team. Or at least an NBA one.

If I played in the NBA, I'd rock everything. Headband, tall socks, wristbands, fingerwraps, calf sleeve, elbow sleeve, ankle braces, compression shorts, knee straps. Everything.

The Hawks announcer who's not Steve Smith goes on an extended riff about Corey Maggette's body, and I don't blame him. He ever goes to Greece, the damn statues are gonna start working out. It's ridiculous. He dives to save a ball, the seats'll move out of the way.

The Clippers are up 10, and I'm not sure how. The stands are half-empty, but that's no mystery.

It's good to see that Josh Childress is letting his afro come back. Wouldn't be right without it.

I know he's been gone for a while now, but it's a shame that Jeff McInnis isn't a Clipper anymore. I don't mean it in a bad way, but he just seemed like a Clipper. Ditto for Q and D Miles.

Four-point game.

Cassell and Cat is a pretty decent backcourt, actually. Sam I Am needs to rehab his rep, Cat needs to show he can thrive without his partner in, uh, crime, Franchise. And with Wilcox, Brand and Maggette, there are plenty of assists to be had. Can't see the Clips cracking the playoffs, but they're gonna ruin a lot of people's nights. The Hawks, of course, are quite capable of ruining their own nights, thank you.

Can't remember whether the Stoudamire on the Hawks is Damon or Salim. I could look it up, but why? I assume he'll score at some point.

Chris Kaman's hair is impressively awful. (And it's Salim—just got a good look at him. I guess I'll have to look up where Damon is.) Al Harrington tries to draw a charge on Maggette, which is basically like trying to draw a charge on an 18-wheeler. Adding insult to injury, he gets whistled for the block.

The Hawks guys seem surprised that Maggette has started quickly after missing a month, but then again they didn't see him balling this summer. I did, and I can safely say he would have been ready had the season started in July. He doesn't take time off.

Someone on the Hawks has some ILL adidas. The team might be bad, but they've got a great arena and good colors. So there's that.

You can't help but admire Mike Dunleavy's commitment to the Rileyesque slicked-back do despite his obvious deficiencies.

Halftime. 50-47, Clips. And ha ha, I totally forgot that there was a doubleheader on TNT. Right now it's Heat/Rockets without Shaq or T-Mac, which honestly may be less compelling than the Hawks/Clips. OK, so maybe not, but I'm committed to this game. I think. Then again, it IS halftime. Guess I could change over for a while.

OK, this is bad. I haven't watched the new-look Heat yet, and the first possession I see has Antoine Walker and Jason Williams dribbling out the shot clock, with J Will losing it on a travel. Dwyane Wade, off in the corner, doesn't touch the ball. This is not good.

Yao Ming gets swatted by Zo, which is just plain embarassing. Not sure what he has to do, but Yao has to get MEAN. He hits layups on the next two possessions, but he needs to be dunking on people.

Can't say I ever thought Jeff Van Gundy would be coaching Rafer Alston. Is there a weirder coach/player combination in the League? Well, except Larry Brown and all of the Knicks, of course.

Antoine Walker, 3; Antoine Walker, airball 3. That's my Toine.

Yao's neck beard is quite disturbing. Two fouls in four minutes though, and who wants to sex Mutombo?

Pretty cool that Juwan Howard and Alonzo Mourning are on the court at the same time—two of the first $100 million men. It's hard to believe that anyone ever thought Juwan Howard was worth $100 million, but hey, these things happen.

Jeez, with those two, Deke and now Gary Payton on the court at the same time—what years is this?

The chances of my watching any of the rest of the Hawks/Clips game are somewhere between slim and none.

You know what would be shocking, Craig Sager? Come out one night in a grey pinstriped suit and a solid tie. Plain white shirt. Wingtips.

Marv Albert, Steve Kerr and Reggie Miller in the booth. Either team would probably take Reggie right now. Actually, there's no probably about it.

Derek Anderson's cornrows look familiar—did AI have that pattern once? Someone did. Guess you can't patent hair designs. Although Anthony Mason should have.

What the hell? The Heineken sports update looks like it's coming FROM hell. What's with the red mist?

Whoops, lost some time there. It doesn't really look like that Zo's lost much. I still think he's a loser for bailing out on New Jersey, but he's definitely still got some game. Going after shots like it was 1993, snuffing Stromile Swift like he was some high school kid.

Yao's hair is...commie. Or something. Also, he's really, really, really tall.

It's still amazingly hard to believe that Jeff and Stan Van Gundy share the same parents.

I'm going to post this at halftime so if Safari crashes I won't have a nervous breakdown. Not that anyone will really care (or notice) one way or the other.

Soooo many new guys on both of these teams, it's actually confusing. Also, David Wesley looks like Marco Pantani.

Mourning goes after EVERY SHOT inside. It would be funny if he wasn't catching a bunch of them. Actually, he's only got three blocks, but it seems like more.

Reggie Miller just murked a Run-DMC lyric. It's "kill my dog, I'ma SLAY your cat." I think.

Yao misses a dunk, which is just plain absurd.

48-44 Miami at the half.

Weekend Preview: 11/4-11/6

Fri, 04 Nov 2005 10:08:58 -0800

Here comes the first weekend of regular season basketball action in … well … in a long time. And here at FBB we couldn’t be more excited. 25 games, three days, and we’ll start to see some separation in the fantasy basketball standings. Coming out of the gate strong is important for sure, but making that key pickup is even more important. This weekend is going to be where statistical anomalies turn into real trends, and here’s what we’re going to be looking for:

How are those rookies doing?
Now, odds are you won’t be finding Chris Paul or Andrew Bogut on your waiver wire right now. And if you are, we’d like to join your league. But there are plenty of other rookies who are fighting for playing time and establishing themselves in rotations. Mid-first-rounders like Nate Robinson, Hakim Warrick, Johan Petro, Danny Granger and Joey Graham will either be high-risk pickups or complete waiver-wire fodder after this weekend.

We’ll also see a couple of rookies who were drafted in a lot of leagues prove to be worthless. For example, Channing Frye, who is having trouble finding the court with Larry Brown standing in his way. Raymond Felton is caught fighting for minutes with Brevin Knight – which was expected, but still.

Minutes, Minutes, Minutes
If you’re new to FBB, you might want to brace yourself, because if there’s one this we love to talk about (other than point guards), it’s minutes. And you’re gonna hear a LOT about minutes this year from us. Early surprises are Antoine Walker’s 42.5 mpg for the Heat, and Ron Artest seeing 40 mpg so far for the Pacers considering the depth of both teams.

Injury Reports
Shaq (surprise!), Baron (double surprise!) … does “I told you so” mean anything to you guys? These next few days will be pivotal to both these guys and their backups.

Free Agents Fitting In
Here in Washington, we’re quietly chuckling at the Lakers and their big offseason acquisition, Kwame Brown. But we’re also watching Raja Bell and James Jones in Phoenix, Bonzi Wells in Sacramento, and all the new faces in Cleveland.

Game of the Week(end)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers, Friday, 10:30 PM.
Now, don’t laugh. The FBB version of Game of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with high-profile match-ups, future playoff teams, or anything like that. We’re looking for games that will be of interest strictly from a fantasy standpoint. Here are two teams with a bunch of question marks in terms of PT and the value of some of their big-name players.

For the Hawks, Joe Johnson found out pretty quickly that you pick up a lot more assists dishing to Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire than you do dishing to Josh Childress and Zaza Pachulia. Meanwhile, Al Harrington’s ankle injury throws another wrench in the ongoing Childress/Josh Smith/Marvin Williams

For the Clippers, the big question is if Chris Kaman will be able to recover from his 5-TO, 19-minute performance Wednesday night. Plus, who is this James Singleton guy who went for 14 and 10? Also we’ll be watching to see if Corey Maggette is back in the lineup, and if so, how effective he is.

The Truth Is Out, Part 2

Tue, 01 Nov 2005 09:39:57 -0800

So BV did his draft recap and now it’s my turn. Like he said, we start 10 players (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UT, UT), with three bench spots, 12 teams. So it’s a pretty deep league, and it’s very competitive. Hard to slip sleepers past these guys. Guys like Zaza Pachulia, Marquis Daniels, Eddie Griffin, Mike James, etc. were all gone by the 9th round, for example. My strategy going in was to heed my rankings, take the best player available with most picks, not get too hung up on positions, and not to ignore percentages, which always seem to give me problems. Let’s see how I did.

1st Round (4th overall): Dirk Nowitzki, PF
I was hoping that Marion would fall to me, but he went #3. It’s hard to complain about Dirk, and if continues to trade in a few 3s for a few more blocks, I’ll take it. He’s 27, clearly in his prime, clearly the top option on a perennially high scoring team, and he set career highs in blocks, assists and points last year. I’m banking on a repeat. I was tempted to take Kobe, and even a little tempted to shock the world and take Kirilenko, but in the end Dirk was the obvious choice.

2nd Round (21st overall): Yao Ming, C
I told my dad the day before that draft that if Yao was there for me at 21 I would take him, and I stuck to my word. Even in his “disappointing” season last year he finished 17th on the player rater, and he seems bound to take a leap forward this year, if he can continue to improve his game and his minutes per game by 3 or 4, which is a distinct possibility. I certainly liked him more than Jermaine O’Neal, and I was thought about Vinsanity and Mike Bibby, but a dominant center in the second round without reaching was too good to pass up.

3rd Round (28th overall): Pau Gasol, PF
I deliberated a whole lot here. Gasol was the highest person left on my board, but I’ve drafted him the past two years and have been burned before, by a frustrating rotation and injuries. And did I really want to go with three big men with my first three picks, after I preach about PGs so much? In the end I decided to trust myself and go with Gasol. All three players so far are big men with very solid percentages and Gasol, like Ming, seems likely to increase his effectiveness and playing time as he enters his prime and will be the featured player on a thinned-out Memphis squad. His foot problems are a concern, but I went with him over Bosh, Joe Johnson and Rashard Lewis.

4th Round (45th overall): Kirk Hinrich, G
I was absolutely thrilled to get Captain Kirk near the end of the fourth round. He was my highest ranked player left and I desperately needed a top flight PG. The next four picks – Boozer, Camby, Redd, Parker – show what a drop-off there was. Kirk’s FG% is rather brutal, but I’m hoping those first three guys could help offset it.

5th Round (52nd overall): Cuttino Mobley, SG
The middle rounds are always the toughest, and my strategy was to not give in to hype and to instead draft players who I felt would be sure-thing, solid contributors all season. Mobley may have been a bit of a reach, but he has a history of playing 40 mpg and he could very well see that on a thin Clippers team. And you know he’ll be launching his share of 3s, as well. I was strongly considering Lamar Odom, but figured I had plenty of boards and could use a gunner.

6th Round (69th overall): Rasheed Wallace, FC
Another steady, unspectacular pick. Rasheed has a solid all-around game and the fact that he qualifies at center means that I don’t have to worry about depending on one of those “who the hell knows?” guys that ended up going in the next few rounds. His percentages are rather weak, and he might have some clashes with Flip Saunders, but his track record shows steady production and good health. I might very well regret not going with Rafer Alston or Donyell Marhsall at this spot.

7th Round (76th overall): Richard Hamilton, SG
The ultimate safe pick. I’m not a huge fan of Rip’s fantasy game, but in the 7th round it’s hard to argue. I often overlook points, and Rip is always a nice source. He’s another great free throw shooter, and even if he doesn’t match his 5 apg of last year, he should be a solid contributor (see a theme developing?) there. He’s another person who you can leave in the lineup and not worry about, and I think my first seven picks, while lacking in flashiness are extremely solid.

8th Round (93rd overall): Mark Jaric, G
Here’s where you can start going for riskier picks. Or, at least that’s what I’m saying in retrospect. I don’t love this pick, at all. I’m a huge fan of Jaric’s potential, but he’s always hurt and depending on him as my #2 PG has disaster written all over it. If he stays healthy, I’m rather confident this pick will be a steal, but that’s very iffy. His high assist rate might also drop since Minnesota runs its offense through KG.

9th Round (100th overall): Josh Childress, GF
On the other hand, I was thrilled to land Childress in the 9th round. He was actually the only player that I’ve hyped up this season that ended up on my team. He was almost a top 50 player in the second half of last season, and can help in just about every category. Tayshaun Prince went three rounds earlier and I think Childress will end up with the better numbers at the end of the year.

10th Round (117th overall): Eddie Jones, GF
BV hates this pick, but I stand by it. If he was able to finish 52nd on the rater last season when he averaged nearly five points less than he had the past few seasons, he looks to have a slight resurgence in Memphis where he will be looked to as one of the main options behind Gasol. He had a horrid preseason, but this is one of those cases where I’ll take the 10 years of stats over the few preseason games. If he turns out to be a total bust, it’s only a 10th rounder.

11th Round (124th overall): Brendan Haywood, C
OK, this was a pure homer pick, I admit. Brendan is my girlfriend’s favorite player and I figured by having him on my team, I just bought myself a good 40-50 extra hours of basketball watching this season, at least. And for a third center, he’s not so bad, and it’s always nice to have a player on your favorite team to root for. It was the 11th round – Juan Dixon, Lorenzen Wright and Charlie Villanueva were the next three picks – I feel fine about this. That said, it came down to him and Mike Dunleavy and if I wasn’t a Maryland grad who was a Wizards fan, we know who I would have picked. I hope this one doesn’t haunt me.

12th Round (141st overall): T.J. Ford, PG
This one really upset BV, who cried shenanigans since I have not spoken well of Ford at all here on FBB. But hey, player value is all relative – in the 12th round, with Hinrich and Jaric as my only two PGs, I feel this is a strong pick. I still think Mo Williams is just as good of a player, at least this season, and Ford is a major injury risk, but I needed the depth.

13th Round (148th overall): Mike Sweetney, PF
With my last pick I decided to go with someone with some decent upside but also someone I wouldn’t mind jettisoning early on. Each year the waiver wire offers a few players who emerge in the first few weeks of the season that turn out to be quite valuable and you have to be ready to pounce on them. With news that Sweetney will be coming off the bench initially, and knowing that Scott Skiles can be downright Sloan/Hubie Brown-ish when it comes to rotations, Sweetney might be packing his bags soon.

So there’s my team. I think that it’s pretty (here comes that word) solid top to bottom. My top four picks are all young and in their primes, and the rest of my squad is a good mix of established vets and young, but not necessarily green, players. I don’t have any one-category studs and instead am relying on a group effort to put me at the top of most categories. I’m admittedly thin at point guard, but you know that I’m always ready to rotate through the flavor of the week at that position.

Thoughts on who has the better squad, myself of BV???

Enjoy the first games of the season tonight. Go Dirk!

Finding Meaning in Preseason Stats

Wed, 26 Oct 2005 09:43:50 -0800

OK, so perhaps I overstated myself in that e-mail to BV where I said “DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO PRESEASON STATS.” Now, I’m not going to go back on that statement because I still feel that it’s almost entirely true. Those looking for the answers to the fantasy season in a handful of preseason games are wasting their time. The classic assumption about the NBA is that no one actually starts to try until the last five minutes of the game. This obviously isn’t true, but do you think that anyone who isn’t fighting for a roster spot is playing at anything more than ¾ speed? Do you think that studs would be sitting out with such minor injuries, which is letting lesser players put up impressive numbers? Basically, when you have many seasons worth of regular season stats to fall back on, don’t let eight games in October do anything to change your outlook.

That said, box scores are box scores and there are some interesting numbers to look at from this preseason. We are less interested in actual performance than in playing time trends, so keep that in mind.

37.2 – That’s how many minutes per game Josh Childress is averaging. He has played 223 minutes in six games. The player with the second most minutes played is Raja Bell with 188. The next highest minutes per game average is 32.5 from LeBron. This is something to pay attention to. It holds with the theory that you should be paying attention to playing time more than actual performance, although the two are obviously related. Childress’s numbers haven’t been all that mind-blowing – 14.0/5.0/2.8 with 1.5 steals – but there is every indication that the Hawks are going to keep him out there plenty this year, which is only going to make for even better numbers. Childress is already a favorite sleeper here at FBB and we would bump him up a few more spots from #79 where we put him on the overall rankings.

15.8 – That’s how many points per game John Salmons is averaging this preseason. That includes games of 25 and 30 points. So does that mean that John Salmons is ready to bust out into one of the league’s leading scorers? No, of course not. Those two huge games came when Allen Iverson was out of the lineup, something that is bound to happen at least 8-10 times each season and perhaps much more than that. No team has a higher percentage of its scoring to replace than the 76ers when AI is out of the lineup. In the seven games that AI missed last year, Willie Green – an ordinary player by all measures – stepped into the starting lineup. In those seven games Green averaged 36.1 mpg as his replacement and was able to put up a line of 18/5.3/5.1. With Green suffering one of the more unfortunate injuries over the summer (at least for those folks related to Willie Green), Salmons seems set to step into the role of AI’s understudy. That doesn’t make him worth drafting, but in league’s with daily transactions where you can plug Salmons in if you know that AI’s going to be out, Salmons should be a Top 50 player on those nights.

4.7 – That’s how many personal fouls Rashad McCants is averaging per game, in just 24 minutes. That is a whole lot of fouls, especially for a swingman. A lot of people have high hopes for McCants this season and the opportunity does seem to be there for him. He’s a very gifted offensive player but has a reputation for being a lazy defender. Picking up nearly five fouls per game in 24 minutes seems to support this theory. It will be hard for him to accrue much value if he has to come out of the game constantly due to foul trouble. Another player plagued by foul troubles is Al Jefferson. As a rookie he averaged 2.8 fouls per game in just 14.8 mpg. So far this preseason he’s averaging 4 fouls per game in just 18 minutes per contest, a rate even higher than McCants. The Celtics seem hesitant to hand him the starters job, and if they would have to yank him after six minutes due to him picking up two fouls, the team might be better off letting him come off the bench anyway.

Who Will Be The First Fined NBA Star?

Thu, 20 Oct 2005 10:38:59 -0800

Fun post on Oddjack today: Gambling Web site Bodog has put down odds on who will be the first NBA player to be fined for violating the new dress code.

The lead candidate, of course, is 76ers guard and Stephen A. Smith pal Allen Iverson, at 2/5. Other likelys include Raja Bell, Kevin Garnett, Mike Bibby, Rasheed Wallace, Ron Artest (of course) and the pictured Marcus Camby. The longest odds are for Josh Childress and the inexplicably included Antonio Davis.

We would probably go with Greg Ostertag, ourselves.

Who's Gonna Suffer For Their Bling? [Oddjack]

Overall Rankings: 61-90

Wed, 19 Oct 2005 09:33:25 -0800

1 to 30
31 to 60

This is where things start to get tricky. In the first four or five rounds, you have to take the best player available. There is a limited number of true impact players, and the more you can get your hands on, the better. By the time you get the middle rounds, you need to start addressing team needs. Most of these players have specific strengths and weaknesses and are pretty interchangeable, really.

61. Shareef Abdur-Rahim – Career averages: 20 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg, 47% and 82%. Was always healthy before last year, could be bargain this low.
62. Kyle Korver – Will lead the league in 3s – probably by a lot. Philly isn’t very deep (especially after C-Webb goes down), so PT shouldn’t be an issue, plus he grabs his share of steals.
63. Kurt Thomas – Not a whole ton of upside, but he’s missed just five games in four seasons and will be a key part of one of the league’s top offenses.
64. Chris Paul – A bit of wishful thinking perhaps, but he should have every opportunity to run with the starting job and backup Claxton has a knack for getting injured.
65. Damon Stoudamire – Should fend off B-Jax and be a solid #2 PG; you know he’s not shy about launching 3s.
66. Stromile Swift – At the very least, should average around 2 bpg, and that C-eligibility is pretty sweet, to boot.
67. Jalen Rose – Not the most exciting pick, but he should be on the court enough to rack up some pretty nice numbers.
68. Tony Parker – Remember, he’s just 23 and has gotten better each year; fixing his FT% and continued improvement will make him as solid as the rest of the PG in this batch.
69. Grant Hill – Can’t see production or health getting better this year, only worse.
70. Samuel Dalembert – Another one of those failed sleepers picks that can provide nice value the following year; could be the next in the Camby/Chandler mold.
71. Kenyon Martin – Always overrated; usually fights injury issues and just doesn’t fill up the box score all that much.
72. Jamaal Magloire – We think you’ll probably be able to slip him by later than this; don’t forget he was 14/10 with 1.2 blocks and 47% and 75% before injury-marred 04-05.
73. Stephen Jackson – Depth and sanity issues, but he’s a 3-point gunner who gets decent steals.
74. Antawn Jamison – He might get more trigger happy from long range, which would help boost his overvalued stock.
75. Marko Jaric – He’s been an FBB favorite and an FBB most hated; brings a nice combo of 3s, assists and steals, but health has always been a major, major issue.
76. Tayshaun Prince – If you’ve made some risky picks, he’s a guy you can plug in for the entire season and leave alone.
77. Carmelo Anthony – Probably the single most overrated player in fantasy, but young enough to improve.
78. Jason Williams – Just sense trouble in Miami; also, has missed at least 10 games in three of last four seasons.
79. Josh Childress – This kid could blow up, and you’ll want to get in on the ground floor; I see Tayshaun Prince, others see Shawn Marion – could realistically land halfway between the two.
80. Drew Gooden – Hard to ignore last year’s 28th place finish on the player rater, but he always seems to rub folks the wrong way and this is a deep squad.
81. Caron Butler – Don’t at all expect more of April’s numbers, just hope he can regain his rookie steals magic.
82. Luke Ridnour – He’s almost a solid #2 PG, and if he can get up to 37 mpg, he surely will be.
83. Quentin Richardson – Actually averaged 2.5 ppg less last year than with the Clippers; great rebounder for a guard.
84. Jamal Crawford – Expect lots of people to be scared to draft Knicks; there’s a certain risk involved, but this late you can afford to take a chance.
85. Deron Williams – Just remember that Jerry Sloan can be an extremely frustrating coach, and he is a rookie point guard.
86. Mike Dunleavy – Hey, it’s a contract year and the Warriors could put up 120 regularly.
87. Antoine Walker – Fewer minutes may make percentages more bearable, but will have negative impact overall.
88. Andrew Bogut – We tend to tread very carefully with rookies on FBB; it’s all about how many steals and blocks he can give you.
89. Raef Lafrentz – If he can repeat last year’s unspectacular but healthy season, he’ll be a bargain this low.
90. Shane Battier – With Memphis’s thinned-out roster, more PT will be available for the stat stuffer – especially when the inevitable injury hits.

Eastern Conference Preview - South East Division

Tue, 27 Sep 2005 17:00:33 -0800

Miami Heat

What can anyone say about a team with Shaquille O'Neal and Dwayne Wade? Of course the Heat will be the favorites to go to the NBA finals.

As great as the Heat were last season, look at what they have done in the off season. They acquired Jason Williams and James Posey from the Grizzlies, signed free agent Antoine Walker and now solidified their bench with the *gulp* veteran Gary Payton. That's right, if you read the Atlantic division preview, the HEX is still on. Actually the HEX is on for two reasons, the "glove" just adds to the old HEX i put on Alonzo Mourning for being sick, too sick to play in Toronto, but not sick enough to hang from Shaq's nuts like Payton is. Good thing Shaq's got two, right?

Is there another guard capable of taking the spotlight off of Lebron James? Dwayne Wade may be the only one right now, in the way that he cuts to the basket and plays defense with no fear and no regard for his own body.

Shaquille O'Neal must look at this year as the year to take it all again. O'Neal is definitely on his way down, his skills are going to erode rather quickly as they usually do with big men. Too many years of pounding on those knees and ankles and too much abuse from the double and triple teams and hack-a-shack's. How many more Shaq "quality" years are left?

This is another lineup that looks as deep as can be. Williams starting at the point backed up by a future Hall of Famer in Gary Payton, Walker starting at power forward backed up by Udonis Haslem, who had a break out year last year (we'll just pretend it had nothing to do with playing next to Shaq), and of course, Shaq backed up by, *uh-hem*, Alonzo Mourning.

I will understand if they Heat win a championship. Wade deserves that kind of success, i just don't like those "cleaner fish" who travel from team to team, only looking for a way to win a championship. Learn from Reggie Miller people...

My Picks:

Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
Best Rookie: Wayne Simien
Prediction: 1st (Central), 1st (East)

Washington Wizards

I'm the wiz. I'm the wiz. The Wizards laid down the law last season. It was impressive to see a team heading into the playoffs not taking any crap from a player. In 2001, Kwame Brown was the first high school player ever taken with the first pick of the draft. Attitude and injuries always seemed in the forefront with Brown and only one of those can be tolerated, not both.

Brown was traded to the LA Lakers in return for Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins. A good move in my opinion, trading a guy that no longer fits into the work ethic of the team for two talented far from superstar players.

The big loss for Washington was having Larry Hughes leave for the Cleveland Cavaliers. It will be difficult to replace that kind of scoring and defensive presence. The Wizards were able to land Antonio Daniels as a free agent, but that's far from replacing anything Hughes gave the team.

The team's strength this year will come from point guard Gilbert Arenas who can score from anywhere and has ice in his veins and the collection of talented big men, led by Antawn Jamison who found new life after coming to Washington from Dallas last season. Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas are two nasty post players to be pitted against, those guys fight for every point and fight hard.

If the Wiz can get over the loss of Hughes and plug the hole with a combination of Daniels and Butler, there is no reason they can't compete in the SouthEast, although taking on the Miami Heat will be tough.

My Picks:

Best Player: Gilbert Arenas
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 2nd (Central), 4th (East)

Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are a little bit of an enigma to me. With last season's personnel shuffle following the Tracy McGrady trade, sometimes it looked like the players weren't all on the same page. Doesn't a team led at the point by Steve Francis always seem that way? I thought the same of the Houston Rockets when he was there.

What a great sight to see last year, Grant Hill returning to the court and playing effectively was definitely a sweet story and although his season was cut short towards the end, there is hope that he is fully recovered from his series of ankle surgeries and will return to the court again this season, hopefully more confident and more like his old self than last year.

Dwight Howard, "man child" proved that he can play in this league and will someday be a dominant post player, after all, he was just drafted out of high school and he still averaged a double-double through his rookie season. When is the last time that feat was accomplished? I don't hear enough hype about that. Emeka Okafor averaged a double-double as well, but he was drafted out of the college ranks.

I have to say, it would be nice to see Jameer Nelson get some more starters minutes. It seemed the Magic played a more fluid game when Nelson started at the point and Francis was shifted to shooting guard.

It will be interesting to see if Kelvin Cato and Tony Battie can stay healthy this year. I remember thinking before last season that Tony Battie was a big gamble for the Magic, considering his bad knee history while with the Celtics and Cavaliers, but it didn't play as big a factor in Orlando as i thought. That's not to say the injury is completely over with, but if Battie and Cato can spell each others minutes, I'd be ready to let Howard have a bigger role in the post.

What the heck happened with the Fran Vasquez pick? Vasquez was rated one of the top big men available in this years draft and was taken with Orlando's first pick, 11th overall. Shortly after the draft, we started hearing about Vasquez not going to come to the Magic, rather he would stay in Spain and play for Real Madrid. This is a long standing issue with the NBA draft. Players can enter themselves for eligibility, but it doesn't mean that they actually have to commit to the NBA team that picks them. This was an 11th pick though, if an NBA team knows the player has no intention of coming to the league, then they could use that pick on someone that has shown that interest. Come to think of it, i guess the blame could be laid on the Magic organization as well for not doing their homework properly. They just went into the draft thinking, once picked, they could convince Vasquez to come to Orlando.

"I've said, 'No,' because I was afraid to adapt to the American way of life, and of not giving the level they have asked. I'm not a coward, but I prefer to stay in Spain, progress, and who knows? Maybe jump to the NBA in a few years."

Does that sound like a man ready to commit to the NBA? Could they not have known that before the draft? The lure of the NBA life isn't what we think it is, i guess.

My Picks:

Best Player: Steve Francis
Best Rookie: *
Prediction: 3rd (Central), 10th (East)

Charlotte Bobcats

Expansion what? I remember when the expansion Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies came into the league. The two teams didn't look like they had a hope in hell of improving in their first few seasons. It's a different story for the Bobcats through, you can look at that roster and the way Bernie Bickerstaff has drafted and signed talent and see the improvement coming rather quickly.

I had some questions about the drafting of Emeka Okafor. I had heard the stories of his back problems and how it would hinder his play in the extended NBA schedule. Well, i was wrong to doubt the pick, wasn't i? Okafor played above and beyond expectations and from all accounts is learning and developing this off season in hopes of being a bigger part of the team's offense.

There were too big surprises for me when watching the Bobcats last season. Primoz Brezec, who couldn't bribe his way unto the court in Indiana was picked by Charlotte in the expansion draft and proved to be a steal. The guy can play, he can score and rebound with the best of them, and he's young. Now, who the heck would have thought that Brevin Knight would have been among the league leaders in assist, almost averaging a double-double for the season with points and assists.

This season should be interesting for the Bobcats again and there's no reason to believe they won't improve. The Bobcats drafted a great college point guard in Raymond Felton and they are surely hoping the lack of size Sean May has won't be as big a hindrance as people think.

I just don't think the improvement will be significant enough to get them into the playoffs, but it will bring some more excitement to Charlotte.

My Picks:

Best Player: Emeka Okafor
Best Rookie: Raymond Felton
Prediction: 4th (Central), 11th (East)

Atlanta Hawks

Oh woe, the Hawks ended up having another disappointing season. I've been silently pulling for the Hawks for years. The lovable losers of my life.

Just look at their lineup this season and you can see the potential is incredible, but there is much seasoning to be done. Even the addition of Joe Johnson this off season won't bring the Hawks into the playoffs, the supporting staff in Atlanta is not what it needs to be this season, not that it won't be in the future, it's just not there right now.

Much like the Toronto Raptors, you have to question the choice of selecting a player that occupies the same position as your draft pick of the year prior. Marvin Williams is a great talent, but Josh Childress will have something to say about Williams' playing time.

The Hawks would have taken a huge step into respectability if they had signed Eddy Curry to an offer sheet this off season, but the issue of Curry's irregular heart beat and his unwillingness to be tested by Hawks' doctors just soured that deal to such an extent, there was no getting by it.

Because this team is still so young, there is no way to properly judge the future, other than to say it's going to be good, but whether or not the Hawks can hold on to their young guys beyond their rookie contracts is going to be the question.

My Picks:

Best Player: Joe Johnson
Best Rookie: Marvin Williams
Prediction: 5th (Central), 15th (East)

Weekend Review

Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:05:47 -0800

Trade Fallout

Chris Webber, Antoine Walker, Baron Davis, and all the other trade pieces made their debuts this weekend, while other teams featured moderately changed lineups as a result of certain players being traded away. How did everyone do?

Chris Webber He only had one game this weekend, but it was a deliciously ironic matchup against his old squad, the Kings. His game was surprisingly lackluster he stuck to the outside most of the time on offense, settling for a lot of jumpers, which explained his 7-20 shooting performance. His 11 boards were nice, but as expected he didn t handle the ball as much with AI on the floor he had only 1 assist, down from his average of 5.5. However, the fact that he took 20 shots right in line with his season average was a good sign.

Antoine Walker Walker has come out of the gates swinging in Boston. He led the team in scoring in both of their games this weekend, averaging 28.5 points to go along with 11.5 boards and 4 assists. Of course, with Toine, those numbers come at a price. He also averaged 4 turnovers, and the fifty (yes, fifty) shots he took over the weekend were nearly double anyone else s on the team (Paul Pierce took 27 shots over the same 2 games). Also worrying was the fact that he only hit one 3 all weekend, but that should change. If you re not concerned with percentages, Walker will be a great player over the rest of the season.

Baron Davis He came off the bench yesterday to huge applause in Oakland, and played his first significant minutes in over a month. The rust showed, as he only hit 3 of 11 shots, but he dished out 8 assists in his 29 minutes. He ll be worked back slowly, according to head coach Mike Montgomery, particularly due to the 12-day, 8-game road trip the team is facing. Temper your expectations for Baron, and just hope that there are no setbacks with his injuries.

The Atlanta Hawks Things are still settling in Atlanta, but as predicted the Big Four are going to be Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Tyronn Lue, and Josh Smith. Not exactly Murderer s Row, but you gotta work with what you got. The most interesting development over the weekend, though, was Predrag Drobnjak, who averaged 30 minutes, 17 points, 4 boards and a 3 on 55% shooting. Those of you who are thin at center should jump on him while you have the chance.

The New York Knicks As the saying goes, one man s trash is another man s well trash. And no one loves trash more than Isiah Thomas does. New Knicks Malik Rose and Maurice Taylor combined for 14 minutes and 4 points on Saturday against the Pacers, and shouldn t have any more value now than they did before (i.e. none).

The Milwaukee Bucks Minus Keith Van Horn and Mike James, the Bucks are turning into fantasy heaven for a number of owners. Now, Mo Williams is a startable option each and every night this weekend he averaged 14.5/8.5 with 2 steals. Desmod Mason actually contributed in something other than scoring last night, grabbing 11 rebounds, a season high. And don t look now, but former #1 overall pick Joe Smith put up 18/11.5 this weekend, with admittedly little else.

Hawks' Childress fills up stat sheet

Thu, 24 Feb 2005 09:27:21 -0800

Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Childress played an impressive game against his former college coach.

Small is the New Big

Wed, 23 Feb 2005 14:35:52 -0800

The Suns were the trendsetters. The Warriors followed suit. And now it looks like the Hawks are the latest. (You could even argue that by playing P.J. Brown at center when Jamaal Magloire went out, the Hornets were the second team to do it.) Yes, we soon might have a small ball craze sweeping the NBA, and I for one, couldn t be happier. Who needs lumbering 7 footers clogging up the lane and doing nothing for fantasy owners? There are very few teams that offer five legit fantasy starters, but if this small ball craze takes hold, we might see more of it. All five Suns are obviously starters and they are all studs. If the lowly Warriors go with a Speedy Claxton/Derek Fisher/Jason Richardson/Mike Dunleavy/Troy Murphy lineup when Troy gets back, all five of them could be well worth using. And even the Hawks, who make the Warriors look like well, last year s Warriors might have close to give fantasy relevant players if they stay small. Antoine Walker and Al Harrington were obviously usable to begin with, and you know my feelings on dunking/blocking machine Josh Smith . But if small ball means Josh Childress keeps getting PT and gets a chance to work on his well-rounded (at least for fantasy purposes) game, all the better. So who are some other teams that might benefit from going small ball?

Dallas Mavericks
It wouldn t have made sense a week ago, but now that Erick Dampier s out, do the Mavs really want to run Alan Henderson out there? Don t they just want to try and put up 120 points a game and see if their opponents can match them? It s too bad that Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels are both banged up right now, because it would have been very tempting to give the idea a go with their full squad. Even so, a lineup of Devin Harris/Jason Terry/Michael Finley/Josh Howard/Dirk Nowitzki would score a whole lot of points. If Shawn Marion (6 7 , 228) can play the 4, why not Howard (6 7 , 210)?

New York Knicks
The Nazr Mohammed era is over. It was fun while it lasted (wasn t it?), but, just like Mark Blount realized he was Mark Blount this year, Nazr realized he was Nazr. The Knicks have little reason to keep running him out there as long as he s ineffective an injured. I d love to see them go with a Stephon Marbury/Jamal Crawford/Trevor Ariza/Mike Sweetney/Kurt Thomas lineup, which isn t really that bad in terms of size, as that frontline goes 6 8 , 6 8 , 6 9 . Tim Thomas, Penny Hardaway and Jerome Williams could work well in this scheme as reserves. What do the Knicks have to lose by doing this? They re already as low as they re going to get in the standings, why not try and do something fun?

Milwaukee Bucks
Both Dan Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia have shown flashes, but both are terribly inconsistent. Toni Kukoc may be old, but he s shown lately that he can still play if given the chance. How about running out a lineup of Mo Williams (although you know who I d have in there)/Michael Redd/Desmond Mason/Keith Van Horn/Toni Kukoc? In Williams and Kukoc you have two great passers, in Redd and Van Horn you have two great shooters, and Mason is the athlete of the bunch. That s a team that could score some points, and could bring Mike James off the bench along with some muscle (relatively speaking) in the form of Joe Smith and Gadzuric.

San Antonio Spurs
These are Rasho Nesterovic s January numbers: 4.5/7.7/0.6 with 1.7 blocks, 43% shooting in 24.8 minutes. That s ugly. Sure, the rebounds and blocks aren t bad, but otherwise Rasho s making Mark Blount look like last year s Mark Blount. Brent Barry is a deceptively tall 6 7 , while Manu Ginobili is no slouch himself at 6 6 . Fantasy players who know what Barry can offer would love to see a situation where he s out there with Manu and Tony Parker. If they played those three with Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen it would be an especially small lineup, with Duncan the only one over 6 7 . And it s unlikely that the NBA s best team will tinker with what has been working so well so far. But fantasy players can always hope.

As the Point Guard Turns

Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:42:34 -0800

Not too much to cover with the short week, but here s the rundown nonetheless.

The entire Atlantic division is pretty ho-hum when it comes to point guards. You know what to expect from Gary Payton, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Rafer Alston and Stephon Marbury. I can t see Kidd getting traded this week, but that s just me. Both him and Iverson are injury concerns the rest of the way, but with their teams fighting for playoff spots, expect them to tough it out.

The Pistons are really clicking right now, having won each of their past four games by at least 18 points. That s why Chauncey Billups PT is slightly down. He s hit 15 3s in those four games and is really on fire. He s above Ray Allen on the Player Rater. The only people higher than LeBron in assists on the Rater are Steve Nash and Marbury. Damn. It was good to see Kirk Hinrich participate in the Rookie/Soph game. The fact that he played far outweighs the fact that he missed all of his shots. He always misses all of his shots. He should be good to go for the stretch run, and I wouldn t be surprised to see him average 40 mpg. I d still avoid Chris Duhon, just like I d avoid most other players getting 25 mpg. Will Jamaal Tinsley be back tomorrow night? Who the hell knows? He s definitely at the point of believe it when I see it. It would be nice to think he ll be back to his productive self for the final 31 games, but there s just not much to support it. That said, I d avoid selling low. The Milwaukee situation looks like it won t change this year. If you grabbed Mike James during his hot stretch, it s probably safe to let go now.

Damon Jones owners sure hope the all-star break didn t cool him down. You have to think that his being snubbed for the 3-point contest helped contribute to the 23 3s he put in during the team s last four games. Keep an eye on Gilbert Arenas once Larry Hughes comes back. It was when Hughes went down that Gilbert really turned things on, so it will be interesting to see how Hughes s return affects his numbers. I would expect a slight hit, but he s still a top-15 player. Steve Francis finds himself at #17 on the Player Rater now, but at #23 when taking it by averages. He s clearly not a first-rounder anymore. Jason Hart got the start, but Brevin Knight got the minutes and the production on Wednesday. It looks like he s fine and will probably be back starting and worth using. Keep Hart on speed dial, though. The Hawks will be a team to watch. Whoa, that looks weird in print. Just for fantasy purposes of course, although now that everyone not just NBA Fastbreak regulars know about Josh Smith, they probably have more buzz than in many years. J-Smooth was seeing some time at the point earlier this year, and since Josh Childress certainly doesn t deserve to lose any PT with Al Harrington coming back, it will be interesting to see if the Hawks go back to that with Tyronn Lue still out. Nobody will be racking up too many assists, either way.

Tony Parker is at #47 on the Player Rater. It s looking like he ll be a top-4 round pick for many years. Just when we all thought Jason Terry was safe, Don Nelson strikes again. Terry saw just 24 and 25 minutes in the last two games, while Darrell Armstrong saw 23 and 20 and Devin Harris saw 31 and 18, just for good measure. Ugh. Stick with Terry and hope for the best. Might be a decent time to sell high on Bob Sura. It looks he s past his injury problems, which is good for his trade value, and if you need the help in 3s and steals you might be able to get a PG that will help more in those categories. Jason Williams was healthy enough to play in the last game of the break, so he s fine. Earl Watson still saw 30 minutes, but he has no value right now. Who the hell knows with Baron Davis? Same as Tinsley, we ll believe it when we see it. It goes without saying that I m stuck with both of these guys. It certainly doesn t seem like the Hornets or Davis are in any rush for him to return. As long as he's out, Dan Dickau is more than solid.

Luke Ridnour owners hated seeing him put up 2/2/3 in 24 minutes while Antonio Daniels went for 19/4/4 Wednesday. No more than 31 minutes for Ridnour in his last four. Prior to that he saw at least 33 minuets in 11 straight. Interesting. OK, so Troy Hudson s got nothing. Sam Cassell and his hamstring better be back in there soon. I maintain he ll be solid from here on out. Don t ask me why I feel that way. Andre Miller is in a major, major funk right now, hitting rock bottom with a 2/1/1 in the last game before the break. He just doesn t play as well with Earl Boykins in the lineup. Damon Stoudamire looks to be on his way to a second consecutive top 40 Player Rater finish. He might even sneak into the top 30. It ll be interesting to see where he ends up this offseason and it what type of role. Supposedly Raul Lopez will be ready to go after the break. We ll see. Keith McLeod should be back soon, too. We ll see. I d rather use Chris Duhon than any of the Jazz PGs.

Steve Nash and Gilbert Arenas are exactly tied on the Player Rater. I say Gilbert edges him out. But then again, Gilbert is my hero. Mike Bibby is just below AI and right above Steve Francis on the Rater. I say good things about him all the time and he deserves them. What s with his 75% free throw shooting this year, though? He was at 82, 86 and 80 the last three years. Chucky Atkins has averaged 41 minutes in the two games since Kobe Bryant has been back. This is fantastic news for his owners, as he s attempted 19 3s in those two games. Ah, Rick Brunson, back in effect. He s surely been grabbed by now, and with good reason, as the Clippers have no one to even back him up. They ll sign someone, and even if (when) it s no one you ve heard of, remember that when Darrick Martin came aboard earlier when Marko Jaric and Shaun Livingston were out, he took some time away from Brunson. Brunson will get plenty of assists, and you just have to hope he throws in some 3s and steals. The Warriors would be silly to take either Derek Fisher or Speedy Claxton out of the lineup when Troy Murphy returns. Silly, I tell you. Hopefully Mike Montgomery will do the right thing.

TEST POST

Thu, 11 Nov 2004 17:39:46 -0800

# Teams

* Atlanta Hawks
* Boston Celtics
* Charlotte Bobcats
* Chicago Bulls
* Cleveland Cavaliers
* Dallas Mavericks
* Denver Nuggets
* Detroit Pistons
* Golden State Warriors
* Houston Rockets
* Indiana Pacers
* Los Angeles Clippers
* Los Angeles Lakers
* Memphis Grizzlies
* Miami Heat
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* New Orleans Hornets
* New York Knicks
* Orlando Magic
* Philadelphia 76ers
* Phoenix Suns
* Portland Trailblazers
* Sacramento Kings
* San Antonio Spurs
* Seattle Sonics
* Toronto Raptors
* Utah Jazz
* Washington Wizards