HOOPLOG: Josh Howard

Stackhouse Appears on the Court Tonight

Fri, 23 Dec 2005 17:21:31 -0800

Jerry Stackhouse, an integral part of the Dallas Mavericks, has been missing all season due to injury. Well he returns tonight and this fan can’t wait to see him play again. Unfortunately Josh Howard, who returned recently, has had a couple of games in which he performed poorly on offense. It seems like he is falling back into his bad habit of not passing the ball but he has been there for the rebounds. Hopefully Stackhouse can bring some fire with him to inspire these Mavericks to out perform their past few games. Losing to the Lakers hurt bad knowing we could have beaten them so easily if we had been on our game.

Yao What Do I Do?

Thu, 22 Dec 2005 16:23:36 -0800

So I had a strategy this year going into the draft. It was pretty simple – draft players who were likely to play 80 games, take the best player available over the first 6-7 rounds but also make sure to get two solid centers so I wouldn’t have to play the dreaded “Find a Second Center” game, and do not ignore percentages. It worked pretty well, I think. In a 12-team league I got Dirk-Yao-Pau-Kirk-Cuttino-Sheed-Rip with my first seven picks. I felt that with those picks guys I had seven guys who would stay in my lineup all season, and that included two centers and two guys with an outside shot at qualifying at center.

So you can imagine my frustration now that Yao is going to miss approximately six weeks with a booboo on his big toe. First off, I don’t doubt that the big man is in pain, as when you are 7’6” and nearly 300 pounds, your feet have a lot of weight on them. But the thing is, Yao was playing his best ball of the season right before he got hurt. His last three games before sitting down he was averaging 26/11/1 on 62% from the field on 15 shots per game and 85% from the line at nearly 9 attempts per game. His blocks had been disappointing all season, but you can’t complain about those other numbers. If he had been putting up 14/6 on 43% shooting over five games before going down, then maybe I’d comprehend it a bit more. But as it is, it just doesn’t make sense.

So now I’m stuck without my #2 draft pick for at least a month. Lots of you are in similar situations, if not with Yao then with many of the other guys fighting injuries. So what to do? Don’t freak out. Stick with your strategy. You did have a strategy, right? For all the advice we give on guys who make hot pickups and all that, my team has remained pretty much in tact the entire season. With Eddie Jones and Marquis Daniels as my only SF, I needed some help there so I dumped Daniels this morning (with Josh Howard and Jason Terry back in full force, there’s simply not enough production to go around I feel) for James Jones, who should be able to help me out in 3s when he moves back into the starting lineup. That was just my fourth roster move of the season.

Yao leaves a big hole for me at center, but I kept Brendan Haywood around for this specific reason. This was another part of the strategy – don’t be left without a quality backup at the key positions, those obviously being PG and C. Haywood’s no star, obviously, but he certainly qualifies as a quality backup. His PT is a bit volatile, swinging between 20 and 30 minutes per night, but he does what you want a fill-in center to do: hit a high percentage of his shots and block some shots. His 57% from the field should come down a bit, but he is a 53% career shooter, so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off. A good number of his shot attempts are layups/dunks/follows. And at 2.0 blocks per game, there are only 14 guys better than him there. What you want from injury fill-ins is to not lose ground. Everyone team in your league will suffer through injuries at some point during the season, and how they deal with them will go a long way towards determining who will end up at the top of the standings.

One thing I certainly won’t be doing is making a panic deal for another center. If you play in a league with people that pay attention, most people will see someone with Yao on their team and think that they’ll be able to gouge that owner for an extra center. The odds just aren’t in my favor in a situation like this. Would I love to someone like Jermaine ONeal manning my other center spot instead of Brendan Haywood? Of course. But to get him I’d have to deal from another strength, and then you invariably end up creating more holes for yourself. Basically, I go with under-management as opposed to over-management as a general rule. That is, as long as you have good players.

And I suppose I should address the Rockets frontcourt situation. As one helpful, anonymous commenter pointed out, Stromile Swift did indeed get nutted by Chris Bosh last night, which led to his receiving the same PT as Lonny Baxter. If Stro has recovered he should be back in the starting lineup as long as Dikembe Mutombo is out. But unless he really explodes, it’s hard to see Van Gundy sticking with him as a starter when Mutombo comes back. The Rockets were having enough trouble outscoring anyone with Yao, so without him they’ll need to be even tougher on D, and even in his second century in the league, Mutombo is still a solid defensive presence. If you are willing to use a roster spot on someone who will help you in blocks while killing you in every other category except rebounds, have fun with Mutombo. As for Juwan Howards … he’s just so boring. He just doesn’t help you anywhere – his per 40 numbers are .7 steals, .1 blocks and 0 3s. He’s shot exactly 45% from the field the past three years, so you know what to expect there. He’ll basically need to go for 21 and 12 like he did last game every night to have even mediocre value.

That should do it for me for a few days, at least in terms of posted content. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

Howard Back in Action

Thu, 15 Dec 2005 17:02:29 -0800

Josh Howard is back and things are looking exciting. He had a big game against the Phoenix Suns last night after the Mavs loss to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers the day before. Howard returned in full form taking on the leadership role he had left to Marquis Daniels and Dirk when he was injured. Josh looked very strong and had 18 points and played for 35 minutes. He only played 12 minutes in the recent game against the Lakers so one can hope Howard will be a driving force in beating them next week now that he’s in the lead.

No Howard, no problem (Reg Req'd)

Tue, 06 Dec 2005 18:53:23 -0800

This is a key stretch for the Mavericks without Josh Howard. So far, they're holding up well.

Game Thread #16: Bulls vs. Dallas Mavericks(UPDATED)

Mon, 05 Dec 2005 23:49:35 -0800

First off, thanks to Mike for handling the game threads over the weekend. Bet you didn't even notice, I'll be damned if we're not seamlessly integrated over here at Blogabull.

Dallas is likely the 3rd best team in the NBA, albeit a tier below San Antonio and Detroit (who pummeled the Bulls on Saturday). One of their better players in Josh Howard is out, and Jerry Stackhouse is dealing with his annual leg ailment. This has Dallas pretty thin on the wings, so thin that former Bull Adrian Griffin may start and get major minutes for the Mavs.

The Bulls proved that they can play superior teams well, with 2 strong showings (and one win) against San Antonio. They still have nobody who can guard Dirk Nowitzki, although I'd like to see if Luol Deng can get an extended trial to do so, as I feel he'd have at least a better chance than Nocioni would. Skiles may be forced to given how everyone has been picking up early fouls lately.

Blogging with the Enemy: Rebel Ballin'

I'll be in attendance tonight trying to extend my own streak, of both Bulls wins and hot dogs eaten.

And by the way, it's Hardwood Classics night, with the Bulls sporting the '46-47 road unis of the Chicago Stags. The Bulls have barely changed their uniforms in their own 40 year existence, so a reach like this is acceptable, I guess.

UPDATE: Well, it was all about Dirk. Tyson Chandler, Andres Nocioni and Darius Songaila alternated unsuccessful attempts at guarding Nowitzki, who finished with 35 points despite shooting poorly in the first half. I still think Luol Deng should have gotten more of a shot to guard him. If you remember seeing Tracy McGrady in the playoffs, Nowitzki seems to have more trouble with lengthy players who can stay in front of him.

Dallas had 15 offensive rebounds which perhaps seemed to hurt more watching it in person but still had an effect. Also, I highlighted in the preview the fact that the Mavs were weak at the wing positions, and starting Adrian Griffin was a sign of that weakness. Ole' man Griff showed up his former team with 14 points and 12 rebounds.

Tough to fault the effort, although a lot of loose balls and possible defensive boards went to the Mavs. They are simply a hard team for the Bulls to match up with. Kirk Hinrich left very early in the game with a concussion, which made things even worse with Chris Duhon also seeming to have trouble with his ankles during the game. So, for the first time all season, Ben Gordon had to spend extended minutes as the primary ballhandler. He made up for it with his hot first-half shooting (I believe he had 18 in the first half), but overall the offense seemed to stagnate without Kirk or Duhon out there. In the frontcourt, Mike Sweetney played only 22 minutes as the taller Mavericks like Dirk, Eric Dampier, and Keith Van Horn really made it hard for Skiles to find a place for him.

Luol Deng had another strong game, shooting 12-15 for 25 points. Maybe it is time to get him in the starting lineup. I still would have liked to see him have the chance on defense to guard the big German though...

Recap | BoxScore | GameFlow

Game 15 Open Thread: SA @ Dallas Mavericks

Thu, 01 Dec 2005 18:11:05 -0800

Minor Spurs goings on:

-Earlier this week the Spurs waived Alex Scales who played all of 20 seconds. SA is now back to the same roster it had to start the season.

-The official Spurs site has a nice wallpaper available for download. It depicts Manu's backdoor reverse layup alley-oop from the Lakers game.

Starting lineups:

SA (11-3, 5-2 away)
PG Tony Parker
SG Manu Ginobili (questionable)
SF Bruce Bowen
PF Tim Duncan
C Rasho Nesterovic

DAL (10-4, 5-1 home)
PG Jason Terry
SG Marquis Daniels
SF Josh Powell
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Erick Dampier

DAL will be without the services of their best perimeter defender Josh Howard who's out three weeks with a sprained ankle. (Three weeks?) Unfortunately the Spurs may not be able to take full advantage because The Sickness may sit as well. He has a "jammed ankle" of unknown cause. Stackhouse is still out due to his trick knee.

The injuries have taken the luster off what could have been a big game (for this time of year anyway). DAL pounded the Spurs earlier this season as Finley went 1-6 in his return. The Mavericks also pummeled SA in a meaningless game at the end of last season. I am going to repost what I had to say back then (when I could actually write worth a damn):

The rest of today's Wilco lyric is "...And it doesn't seem to mean anything" and it goes out to Jerry Stackhouse and the Dallas Mavericks. This past Thursday they won the NBA Championship in decisive fashion, crushing the Spurs by 36 points. Oh wait, that's not it. This past Thursday the Mavericks earned a trip to the NBA finals by sweeping the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. No, that's not right either. The Mavericks, in resounding fashion, locked up a division title by bludgeoning a rival Spurs team. Hmm, that's wrong, too.

On Thursday, the Mavericks beat a Spurs team without its best player on the second game of a back to back. Ginobili and Parker played a combined 40 minutes. The Spurs shot 0-12 from three. For some reason the entire Dallas team whooped it up the whole second half. Darrell Armstrong was waving towels, the bench was standing up most of the time and Stackhouse was talking trash. Afterwards he said, regarding Duncan: "He would've made a difference," Stackhouse said, smiling, "but I don't think he would've made a 40-point difference." He continued on with "I think we were able to put them on their heels with our defense," Stackhouse said and culminated with the following:

"About the only thing that went wrong for the Mavericks was letting Mike Wilks hit a short jumper with 13.3 seconds left, preventing them from giving up their fewest points. Team owner Mark Cuban told the players on the bench how close they were, so they were all standing up and rooting for one last defensive stand.

"They just got a lucky little putback," Stackhouse said."

I just don't get it. This game meant nothing. The only thing the Mavericks could be happy about is not embarassing themselves. They weren't even playing for playoff positioning. San Antonio was without their best player, intentionally limiting the minutes of their other two best players and clearly threw in the towel (in terms of who was playing) with 18 minutes to go. What is Dallas so happy about? And why would they do anything to piss off the Spurs? Which they clearly did: sometime in the second half Duncan ripped up a stat sheet one of the coaches was holding and said "This means nothing."

The Spurs were in a similar position a couple of weeks ago; they played a depleted Sonics team at the SBC center and crushed them. The Sonics never even had a lead. And the game actually meant something in the sense that the #2 seed was in doubt at the time and this particular game determined the tie-breaker. It was just another game to the Spurs. No laughing it up or spouting off incendiary quotes to the reporters afterword.

Needless to say, a post season series between these two teams would have a little something extra.

tion that is apparently necessary for them to play at their best.

Tonight's line: SA -3
Tonight's total: 187.5
My pick: SA
Matty da Blade's plays: SA | Over
The Spurs are 6-8 ATS this year. I am 3-11. Da Blade is 8-5-1 ATS | 3-3 TOT.

This is an open thread. I don't know why I keep writing that. They're all open threads.

O Dallas ... Checking In on the Mavs

Wed, 30 Nov 2005 08:46:41 -0800

As if you needed anyone to tell you differently, Dirk Nowitzki is the unquestioned star of this team. Even when his shot isn’t falling, like the past couple games, where he’s shot a miserable 17-for-51, Dirk is still able to be a real asset. He still puts plenty of points on the board, makes his free throws, hits some 3s, grabs a ton lot of boards and throws in a block or steal. But there are some interesting trends for Dirk so far this year. He’s attempting 19.6 shots per game so far, which is the highest in his career. He’s being looked to even more on offense and seems to be taking more shots that he creates on his own, which aren’t always the highest percentage shots, hence his 44.7% shooting, lowest since his rookie season. He’s never shot below 46%, and you’d like to think he can at least get back to that number, but when you then see that he’s shooting a remarkable 46% from 3-point land on nearly 5 attempts per game, you start to think that it might actually get worse, not better. His owners would probably take the 1% hit in FG% to get an entire extra 3 per game, but that might be a bit much to ask. Dirk’s steals and blocks are also down from recent years, but you can feel more comfortable chalking that up to a small sample size so far. Earlier this week I talked about Kirk Hinrich not getting as many steals as past years, and then he turns around with a 5-steal game last night. Dirk has averaged between 1.0 and 1.4 steals and between 1.0 and 1.5 blocks each of the last five seasons. He’s at 0.5 and 1.0 right now, but it’s hard to see any reason why he shouldn’t end up at his averages. His assists are lower than any season since his rookie, but that’s one more likely to stay that way, given that he’s shooting even more. He scared some owners earlier this year with back problems, but he never missed a game and has never missed more than six in any season. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is, and that always makes him one of the best guys to put together a deal for.

I slotted Jason Terry at #32 on my preseason rankings, a bit higher than most other places I saw. But it was pretty much a no-brainer – here’s a guy who managed to finish 30th on the player rater last year in just 30 mpg. Now he was going to be locked in as the starting PG and #2 scoring option and he missed 9 games in the first six years of his career. This is the kind of guy to have on your team, because his perceived value is almost always lower than his actual value. And that’s the whole key to success, after all. He’s at #36 on the player rater right now and should stay in that general area all season. He’s a point guard who’s averaging just 4.1 apg, so it’s possible his owner is frustrated at the lack of assists. If you can make a move for him, I would highly recommend it. Like Mike Bibby, he’s a point guard, but is really more of a scorer and has never really racked up the assists. Save for a 7.4 apg season in Atlanta, he’s been between 4.9 and 5.7 in all of his other seasons besides his rookie campaign. He’ll likely finish around 5 per game, which is still a plus. He doesn’t have a standout number in any single category, which is another reason why his perceived value is probably lower than it truly is. But except for rebounds, he contributes across the board. OK, his 0.4 blocks will drop back down to his normal 0.2, but that’s normal for a PG. But it’s time to start considering whether he really has become a lights-out shooter. He never shot above 43.6% in Atlanta, but in his first year in Dallas he managed to shoot 50%. It was on just 9.3 shots per game, far down from 15 or so he averaged in Atlanta, so that seemed to be the logical explanation. But in 14 shots per game this season he’s still at a sterling 49%, and he’s even shooting more 3s. He’s still a 44% career shooter, and there’s still plenty of reason to except a somewhat precipitous drop in that percentage. But even keeping it in the 45-46% range will help him keep plenty of value there.

Erick Dampier is one of those guys you just don’t want to mess with. He’s a pretty confounding player, actually. Just five minutes into last night’s game against the Bucks, Dampier had 6 points and 3 boards and seemed to be on his way to one of his good games. But in 23 more minutes he went 0-for-2 from the field and scored just a single point. This really isn’t that out of the ordinary for Dampier, either. The Mavs try to establish him as an inside presence early on, but he either gets himself into foul trouble or loses interest and the Mavs decide to go with DeSagana Diop at center or just use a smaller lineup. Dampier’s had just three useful games this season out of 14. That’s not a very good percentage. If you have him on your team, he’s the kind of guy that will make you make sure you draft two reliable centers the next season. Well, assuming you play in a two center league, which you should, because that can really separate the fantasy boys from the fantasy men. Depending on what league you are in, there are anywhere from 8 to 12 reliable fantasy centers around, most likely. And that includes guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Raef Lafrentz who are prone to throwing up clunkers. As for Diop, yes, he blocks shots, but that is truly all he does. If you're starting him, you are probably in the middle of the pack, at best.

Devin Harris I’ve written plenty about already. You know I love him, and Avery Johnson seems to like him too, as evidenced by all of the crunch time PT he’s been getting. But he still doesn’t want to start him. I mean, Darrell Armstrong getting the nod over you is one thing. He’s a seasoned vet who can bring a defensive intensity. But when an undrafted rookie like Josh Powell gets the starting nod before you do, that’s saying something. He’s still intriguing in the deepest of leagues, but since the very durable Terry is the one that’s blocking him from a starting gig, it’s hard to see Harris being a no-brainer fantasy starter this year. In time. I wrote about Marquis Daniels recently, too. He’s just playing a lot more passively this year. Here’s a guy who averaged 7.3 FGA per game in 18.6 mpg in his rookie season and 8.4 FGA per game in 23.5 mpg last season. So this season he’s averaging 33.2 mpg. At those rates, he should be averaging 12.4 FGA per game. But instead he’s at just 8.6. You can blame some of this on the me-first tendencies of many of his teammates – guys like Dirk, Terry, Josh Howard, Keith Van Horn, even Devin Harris are usually looking out for themselves. So Daniels has picked up some of slack with a career high 2.9 apg, but this isn’t an impressive number or really out of line with what he should be averaging with his increased time.

If Jerry Stackhouse ever comes back, it’s a lot more likely that he’ll mess up other players’ fantasy value instead of actually having any on his own. A guy who can only score, but does so while shooting 40% and doesn’t even start is the ultimate drag. If you can steal Josh Howard off his owner right now, I’d do it. It’s tough to make an offer for a guy who is out for two weeks, especially a fair offer, but Howard is a legit top 50 player and even though ankle injuries have a tendency to linger, I’ll trust in youth and think that he’ll have an easier time putting it behind him for good than an older player might. OK, that’s all the time for today…

Hawks stumble to 0-8 with 87-78 loss to Mavericks

Thu, 17 Nov 2005 22:53:33 -0800

Josh Howard had 25 points and five blocked shots, and Dirk Nowitzki added 20 points and 13 rebounds, helping the Dallas Mavericks ...

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE - November 15TH

Wed, 16 Nov 2005 12:01:17 -0800

LA Clippers 109 Milwaukee 85 –Andruw Bogut had his first tough night 15 minutes and 2 points, and he was -23 … This game was done before the 4th Quarter … The Clippers are 6-2 …. Milwaukee didn’t win a game last year against the West on the road … Elton Brand was +31. That might be an NBA high for the season. .. The Clippers are 6th in the NBA in efficiency differential … The Clippers aren’t doing anything great they are just above average in every category. That leads me to believe this could be real.

Cleveland 114 Washington 99 – The Cavs might be special. They have won 4 straight and are winning at home by an average of 21 … The Cavs are #2 in the NBA in efficiency differential (offense efficiency – defensive efficiency) this is usually a great indicator of how good a team is. They are #2 in offense and #1 in offensive rebounding … The Wizards are #4 even after the loss …. AD had another no turnover game. He is amazing … Donyell Marhsall was a key in this one with a +21 … On the flip side Caron Butler was –23 for the Wiz.

Dallas 83 Denver 80 – Denver is 3-5 … Dallas trailed by 19 … DeSagana Diop had a career high 16 boards and 6 blocks. The Sonics looked hard at Diop in the off-season … Big money Erick Dampier played 11 minutes and had 4 fouls, 4 turnovers and no points. That is straight out of the Jerome James book of centering … Little Earl Boykins had a tough night he was a –20 in 25 minutes … Avery Johnson outcoached Geroge Karl. He got the game small and Marcus Camby never played in the final 16 minutes despite being +10 .. Doug Christie and Josh Howard got pulled early in the 3rd and never returned.

Houston 94 Minnesota 89 – The Wolves offense fell apart down the stretch … McGrady had 13 points in the 4th Q … Houston was able to dictate pace which Jeff Van Gundy’s teams always seem like they are able to do … Houston is having a tough time stretching the floor. They were just 1 of 10 from 3 … I have mentioned this before, but Minnesota has no one to help out when teams take away KG. That is what happened down the stretch … Houston closed the game with Rafer Alston, Jon Barry, McGrady, Juwan Howard and Ming. Derek Anderson was on the bench …. Minnesota got terrible play from their bench. They were all around –11 for the game… Houston’s sized forced Minnesota to close with Olowokandi on the floor. The Wolves are much better with a smaller line-up and KG at the 5.

Philadelphia 104 Toronto 92 – Sam Mitchell death walk continues … Philly is all of a sudden 5-3. However, their differential is not that strong so don’t be buying the Sixers yet …. The Sixers have been home for their 5 game winning streak … Rookie Charlie V had 27-13 for the Raptors. That dude can play … Jalen Rose is +/- death everynight. Last night he was –15, Mo Peterson was an amazing –26 in 23 minutes…. I don’t pup C-Web or spell his name right very often but he was great last night and they were +21 when he was on the floor.

Detroit 115 Boston 100 – Wow is Detroit good …. They are the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NBA. Consider that with their defense. That is unbeatable … Billups dropped 17 in the third quarter … Al Jefferson crushed Darko over a few plays … Boston shot 53% against Detroit and LOST … Boston is really struggling without a point guard Delonte West and Dan Dickau are not getting it done …. All five Pistons starters were in double figures and three were over 20. …. Tayshawn Prince was a +26 …

Miami 109 NOK 102 – Wade scored the final 8 to hold off an upset by NOK and force OT …. Byron Scott is not a good coach. His team losses a lot of close games … Desmond Mason is still struggling. He came off the bench and went 1 for 7. He did have 9 boards … GP played 36 minutes … Chris Paul has done a nice job of getting his shooting percentage up to 46% … Jason Williams did not play the final 12 minutes of the game.

Sacramento 119 Utah 83 --- I thought the NBDL was running yet but from looking at Utah’s roster it debuted yesterday in Sacramento. Don’t look at this as a change in Sacramento’s terrible play.

San Antonio 103 Atlanta 73 -- Great v. very bad not much more to be said.

Orlando 85 Charlotte 77 – Dwight Howard crushed Emeka Okafor. Howard had 21 and 20. We have talked about this I am not sold on Okafor. Howard has five straight double doubles…. Sean May had 15-10 his best game as a rookie. I love that pick.

Overall Rankings: 31 to 60

Tue, 18 Oct 2005 09:59:37 -0800

1 to 30

31. Chauncey Billups – We love PGs here at FBB, and they don’t come more rock solid than this one.
32. Jason Terry – No, seriously, we love PGs, especially ones who were able to finish 30th on the player rater while only getting 30 mpg. The FG% will go down (way down), but everything else will go up.
33. Jason Richardson – J-Rich has only improved during his four years, and the Warriors are primed to be this year’s version of the Suns.
34. Kirk Hinrich – News that Duhon and not Gordon will be his starting backcourt mate is a bit of a buzzkill.
35. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s proven he can stay healthy, but there are many weapons on Cleveland, whereas last year he was one of just three.
36. Ben Wallace – That FT% hurts more than you think and he’s not the same as he was three years ago; still, there’s hope for a contract year rebound. Literally.
37. Dwight Howard – It’s easy to get too excited about “what might be,” but he’s a stud in the making, no doubt.
38. Emeka Okafor – Hope for a few more blocks than last year and that his back doesn’t get too cranky.
39. Shaquille O’Neal – And even this might be too high. Let’s talk about Shaq for a moment. It’s near impossible to win with him on your team, that’s why you can’t do it unless he’s your fourth rounder, because you need that many studs to help you finish near the top in the other seven categories. Because kiss FT% goodbye. And for the love of god, don’t do something stupid and draft someone like Ray Allen or Chauncey Billups to “offset” Shaq. That’s just about the worst thing you can do, because it won’t even come close to bringing you out of the cellar, and you are wasting the value of a player like that. But therein lies the problem. Since you have to wait until the fourth (maybe third) round to realistically draft Shaq, unless you have already drafted players that compliment him, you probably can’t even afford to draft him anyway.
40. Lamar Odom – Could be primed for a huge year, but this is his seventh season, so time might be running out; just not enough 3s, steals or blocks to be truly great.
41. Larry Hughes – The steals and assists will go down, but he’s a solid all-around contributor.
42. Andre Igoudala – Absolutely love his all around game; he’s an Artest in the making. That’s a compliment, by the way.
43. Manu Ginobili – If only the Spurs weren’t so deep that he was limited to just 30 mpg.
44. Corey Maggette – His FT% dominance can’t be overlooked, but other than that he’s an oft-injured, points-only swingman.
45. Richard Jefferson – Like Odom and Maggette, lack of help in steals, blocks and 3s hurts his value.
46. Michael Redd – Not a favorite around here, but he is top dog in Milwaukee, which counts for something.
47. Andre Miller – Has missed three games in his career and averaged 8.2 apg after the break last year; that’s a nice and steady mid-round pick if there ever was one.
48. Marcus Camby – Injuries are already bothering him; has the talent to justify being taken here (much earlier, actually), but he will always be a risk.
49. Zach Randolph – If he can go 20/10 with percentages of 50 and 80, you can look past the rest of his game; he’s certainly The Man in Portland, which is mostly good, but might hurt his FG%.
50. Rasheed Wallace – Center eligibility, 3s, blocks, durability make for a nice package.
51. Cuttino Mobley – Bombs away. And away, and away, and away; could be back to old 40 mpg self.
52. Donyell Marhsall – Have to think he’ll get his minutes once the rotation shakes out; fantasy God with enough PT.
53. Rafer Alston – Moves into a perfect situation, especially if Sura won’t be available.
54. Carlos Boozer – Not much at all separating him from Randolph.
55. Richard Hamilton – Don’t take him any higher, but he’s durable and consistent.
56. Tyson Chandler – We think he’ll be a better guy to have on your team than Camby this year.
57. Josh Smith – If you can deal with some ups and downs, you’ll likely have a first place blocks finish to show for it.
58. Chris Webber – Could be the steal of the draft at this spot … but probably not.
59. Josh Howard – If Avery plays him as much as he says he’s going to, this will end up being low.
60. Bobby Simmons – Going for steady, all-around contributors in the middle rounds isn’t a bad strategy.

Diop's buzzer-beater lifts Mavs (AP)

Mon, 17 Oct 2005 09:42:39 -0800

DeSagana Diop's buzzer-beating tip-in lifted the Dallas Mavericks over New York 104-102 Sunday night, spoiling Knicks coach Larry Brown's home preseason debut. Dirk Nowitzki scored 20 points and Josh Howard added 16 for the Mavericks (2-1), who squandered a 16-point lead in the second half. David Lee had 17 points to lead New York and fellow rookie Nate Robinson added 13, including the tying free...

2005 Fantasy Tiers by Position: Small Forwards

Wed, 05 Oct 2005 09:42:59 -0800

It’s nearly impossible to define the “typical” small forward. Some are long-range bombers, some excel at crashing the boards. Others are defensive whizzes. Taken early, your small forward will determine how some of your late picks turn out. Taken late, a small forward can really fill a need – or make a small one even more glaring. Let’s sort through the variety:

Tier One
LeBron James, Shawn Marion, Andrei Kirilenko.

The cream of the crop. James is either the first or second pick in any draft. Marion is a top-5 pick, and if he stays healthy, AK-47 has top-5 talent as well. The health is certainly a risk, but we’re huge fans of AK, so we’re putting him in the top tier.

Tier Two
Peja Stojakovic, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Rashard Lewis, Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette.

These are some of the most valuable players in fantasy basketball. Some are like shooting guards who can rebound. Others are power forwards who can step outside. Each really has unique skill set. You’ll notice we’ve got Ron Artest up here. That’s not a mistake. He’s lined up for a comeback fantasy player of the year award, if such an award existed.

Tier Three
Bobby Simmons, Antoine Walker, Quentin Richardson, Caron Butler, Carmelo Anthony, Jalen Rose, Al Harrington, Tayshaun Prince, Luol Deng, Kyle Korver, Josh Smith.

All of these guys could end up as top-25 players by the end of the year. All of them could also end up being one of the worst players on your team that you just can’t drop. I’m a personal fan of Carmelo this year if you can get him late enough that the risk is low. Meanwhile, Bobby Simmons might end up being overvalued this year in some drafts. He’s just not a 4th round pick – none of these guys are. But by the end of the fifth round, you have to start thinking about this tier.

Tier Four
Grant Hill, Mike Miller, Josh Howard, Darius Miles, Mike Dunleavy, Michael Finley, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams, Andres Nocioni, Wally Szczerbiak.

One of the problems with tiering the small forwards is that they have such different strengths, it’s tough to differentiate on an overall level. None of these guys will be fantasy studs this year. However, each has a chance to be a solid contributer to your teams, whether it’s in 3’s (Miller or Finley), boards (Nocioni), or head cases (Miles). These are important players to research for the mid-late rounds of your draft. While they’re never great picks, they’re generally pretty safe in the 10th round of so. Don’t target them necessarily, but if a player you were going to take goes right before you pick, these guys are nice second options.

Tomorrow: Power Forwards.

Brrr…. Is There a Draft in Here? (Episode II: The Frontcourt)

Fri, 27 May 2005 10:54:14 -0800

[If you missed Episode I click here.

David Crockett is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of South Carolina, and can be reached at dcrockett17@yahoo.com.]

I the previous Episode I identified the backcourt as the team's highest priority heading into the off-season. Whether through the draft, a sign-and-trade, or with the mid-level salary slot the Knicks must find a way to improve their perimeter defense as well as shave Marbury's and Crawford's minutes. To that end, let's take a look at the frontcourt. First up: the big guys.

The Knicks ended the season with perhaps the highest percentage of power forwards on any roster in the league. Consider that the team started essentially two power forwards, Kurt Thomas and Mike Sweetney. Herb Williams also played Jerome Williams at both forward positions regularly. Isiah then traded for Malik Rose and Mo Taylor, placing Tim Thomas a mere heartbeat away from 4th string power forward.

The team's ostensible center, Mike Sweetney, put together a solid (at best) campaign, especially considering that he played out of position. It was the kind of season that probably didn't change many minds among his supporters or detractors. On offense, his PER (from 82games) at center was a very nice 18.8. As always, he shot a solid efg (53.5%), rebounded well (13.5 per 48), and got to the free throw line (7.9 per 48). However he struggled on the defensive end, giving up an opponent's PER of 17.7. Though he managed to outshoot and out-rebound opposing centers per 48 minutes he also slightly out-fouled them (7 per 48), which meant that much of his potential offensive productivity went unrealized as he sat on the bench. That he struggled with fouls and offered essentially no shot-blocking against opposing centers is not necessarily surprising. He played virtually every game at a significant height disadvantage. Even conceding this, I still maintain that "Sweets," as he is commonly known, would do well to lay off the sugary treats and slim down. He may be a bit young to remember that once upon a one time "The Thing that Ate" Ollie Miller was more than a punch line for a would-be sports writer.

Miller was an even better version of Sweetney, a rising young player with promise, fresh off the toughest Finals series the Jordan-led Bulls ever played. But basketball is an unforgiving profession on tendons and joints, even for the most finely tuned bodies. So ultimately Miller's inability to keep off the extra 35-40 pounds made him less effective on the floor, kept him on the injured list with an endless assortment of ankle and knee ailments, and eventually forced him from the league. His problems were exacerbated - if not caused outright - by his obesity; and I won't even get into the John "Hot Plate" Williams cautionary tale. (Note: "Hot Plate" is mentioned in this Washington Times column by Tom Knott on the end of the Bullets/Wizards futility. I defy you to read the article and NOT laugh out loud. It's hysterical.)

Interestingly, backup center Mo Taylor is this season's biggest defensive surprise. Ignoring for the moment that his acquisition is Isiah's least defensible roster move to date, Taylor was a genuine surprise. After expecting to see Marburyesque indifference I recall watching games this season and being genuinely stunned at Taylor's defensive effort. The numbers appear to bare it out. On offense Taylor was pretty much what I'd come to expect: an accomplished (though streaky) scorer and a turnover machine. His PER of only 13.1 at center was a tad lower than I'd expected but not altogether shocking. I would expect that with a full training camp we'd see Taylor move into the 14-15 range. The big stunner was on defense where Taylor held opposing centers to a fantastic 14.3 PER. Obviously the Knicks would love to see this kind of defensive production off the bench. Even should Taylor regress a bit on defense an opponent's PER just around league average would be tremendous production from the backup center over a full season.

At power forward, Kurt Thomas is limited in what he can contribute on offense as a spot-up jump shooter and rebounder. Though his PER at power forward is below league average (14.4) he remains a decent shooter from field (46% efg), and superb in the 15-20 foot area off the screen-roll. He also still rebounds quite well (13.7 per 48). On defense he's pretty awful, allowing opposing power forwards a 19.1 PER. Among the backup forwards perhaps the biggest surprise is Malik Rose. His defense, which is his calling card, was generally quite good (13.7 opponents PER). His aw-fense was awful. His PER of 9.7 is the unsightly fate of undersized power forwards with limited perimeter skills; they rarely age gracefully. But, such is the price of the additional first round pick. He better be good, whoever he is because watching Rose jack up shots has been painful. I knew that it seemed like he shot the ball an awful lot to me but when I went to 82games.com I was dumbfounded. For all the talk of his selfless professionalism no one mentioned that this guy is a bona fide ball hog. Rose took almost 13 shots per 48 minutes at power forward, hitting at an abysmal 40% efg. Sweetney and Thomas both took just under 15 and JYD took only 10.3 shots per 48. These players all shot over 50% efg.

Wherever it comes from the Knicks most certainly need better overall play from the frontcourt. I compared Sweetney's and Thomas' PER and opponent's PER with center/power forward tandems from the league's five most efficient defensives. (I also included the same comparison for backcourt players - just for kicks and giggles.)

Name	Pos.	PER	Opp. PER
Sweetney, M (NY)	C	18.8	17.7
Thomas, K (NY)	PF	14.4	19.1
NBA Top 5 Teams in Defensive Efficiency
Duncan, T. (SA)	C	28.6	13.8
Muhammed, N. (SA)	PF	6.8	15.8
Nesterovic, R. (SA)	C	13.1	13.2
Curry, E. (Chi)	C	17.4	13.3
Davis, A. (Chi)	PF	13.1	14.6
Chandler, T (Chi)	C	19.1	12.8
Wallace, B. (Det)	C	18.7	15.8
Wallace, R. (Det)	PF	17.7	15.3
Ming, Y. (Hou)	C	24.9	14.6
Howard, J. (Hou)	PF	13.9	16.9
Wright, L. (Mem)	C	15.4	16
Gasol, P. (Mem)	PF	25.7	17

Name (Team)	Pos.	PER	Opp. PER
Marbury, S. (NY)	PG	23.3	16.4
Crawford, J. (NY)	SG	16.8	18.2
NBA Top 5 Teams in Defensive Efficiency
Parker, T. (SA)	PG	19.6	13
Ginobili, M. (SA)	SG	22.7	10.8
Duhon, C. (Chi)	PG	10.8	15.2
Hinrich, K. (Chi)	SG	17.6	13.8
Billups, C. (Det)	PG	20.4	12.9
Hamilton, R. (Det)	SG	17.5	13.8
Sura, R. (Hou)	PG	16.1	17.3
Wesley, D. (Hou)	SG	12.4	15.7
Williams, J. (Mem)	PG	16.7	16.2
Battier, S. (Mem)	SG	18.3	14.1

* Non-starter

Although this comparison hardly qualifies as scientific it aptly illustrates how far the Knicks are behind the best defensive teams. Nonetheless, there is hope that at least Sweetney can lower his opponent's PER into the 15.5-16.5 range next season. Entering his third season he should begin to catch an occasional break from the zebras on the "nickel-dime" type fouls that put him on the bench with regularity. Hopefully, his summer will be spent working on his conditioning so he will be less prone to such fouls. More importantly, the Knicks must make the commitment to put him at his natural power forward spot and keep him there. This of course means the team must acquire or develop a center.

Should the Knicks look to the draft to address the frontcourt presumably they'll be in the market for a player who can log many if not most of his minutes at center, preferably providing some shot blocking. Given the paucity of quality true centers available in the draft in the table I combine centers with power forwards who play both positions. I leave out high school and international players as well as true power forwards that would have a difficult time helping the team immediately (e.g., Sean May, Ike Diogu, Wayne Simien).

Centers/Power Forwards

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Andrew Bogut, Utah	Top five	Bogut is a consensus top 5 pick. He is a good – not great – athlete who can control a game with his skill and passing, particularly for a team who could play him in the high post. I hope he likes Atlanta.
Chris Taft, Pittsburgh	Anywhere from #8 to #15, based on workouts/interviews	The size and willingness to use it are all what you’re looking for in a big 6’10” pf/c, yet he has never dominated. People keep waiting for the light to come on. The interviews may be as important to this kid as any in the draft, including the high schoolers. It’s unlikely he falls far out of the top 10, if at all. If the Knicks remain at #8 this will likely be the guy slotted to them.
Charlie Villanueva, UConn	Anywhere from #8 to #20	There is much to like about Villanueva. He runs the floor well. He shoots a high percentage. He rebounds and blocks shots. Unfortunately, he also likes to play like a small forward at times even though he is 6’11”. Does he want to play center?
Channing Frye, Arizona	Anywhere from #15 to late first round	Disclaimer: I’m an Arizona grad. Channing Frye may be the Shane Battier/Josh Howard of this draft. He doesn’t have superstar potential but he also doesn’t have a lot of holes in his game. He should be a very good pro PF/C for a lot of years. It would be highway robbery if the Knicks pick him up at the end of the first round. More likely they’d have to move into the 16-20 area.
Randolph Morris, Kentucky	Anywhere from #15 to mid-second round	I know the league is starved for big players but if this kid doesn’t pull out and go back to Kentucky for at least one more season something is dreadfully wrong with the NBA. I can understand over-estimating the potential of high schoolers but this kid staying on the floor at Kentucky and he was basically the only center in the entire SEC.
Jared Homan, Iowa State	Second round	If you’re looking for a backup center that ONLY rebounds and blocks shots in the second round he’s your guy.

Adding to the depth at this position are some talented international players: Johan Petro from France, Fran Vasquez from Spain, and Tiago Splitter from Brazil, as well as two schoolboy 7-footers Andrew Bynum and Andray Blatche. Although no David Robinsons or Tim Duncans populate this draft, some pretty serviceable centers are available. Most - after Bogut - will likely go off the board in the 8-20 range. If the Knicks remain at #8 in the draft lottery they could conceivably move down and still get a pretty decent player.

Small Forward
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Looking at New York's roster today, small forward does not appear to be a position of need. Of course, things change in the off-season. The Orlando Sentinel is reporting that Penny Hardaway is pushing for a buyout in order to re-sign with the Magic. Tim Thomas is also entering the final year of his deal. So those two contracts may indeed be moved this off-season. If they are, Trevor Ariza may be the incumbent at small forward unless Allan Houston can come back. Consequently, the Knicks cannot afford to ignore the swingmen in the upcoming draft. I've included swing players, who play in the backcourt, as well as 'tweener types that play up front but handle the ball.

Of the small forwards I see the Knicks as most interested in a swingman than a power-three. Should the Knicks wind up in the top 3 certainly Williams would have to be one of the names they'd consider, along with Bogut and Paul. Should the Knicks remain at #8, irrespective of who is on the board the team should strongly consider Granger. He's a do it all swing player. He could play in the backcourt, with Ariza at the small forward, and all of a sudden the Knicks could be looking at cutting off much of the penetration that plagues the defense.

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Marvin Williams, UNCC	Top 3-4 pick	Honestly, I didn’t see him play enough to do anything but parrot what everyone else is saying. “This kid is the greatest thing since snowshoes. He’s much better than Cats. I’d go see him again and again.” They must know what they’re talking about, right?
Danny Granger, New Mexico	Late lottery to end of first round	I doubt Granger lasts until the end of the first. I think he’s the best “true” small forward available but that tends to be the deepest pro position. His points per shot each year at New Mexico: 1.29, 1.41, 1.55, 1.62. His rebounds: 7.1, 7.9, 9, 8.9. He hurt himself with an awful game in the NCAA though.
Joey Graham, Oklahoma State	first round	The athletic comparisons to Corey Maggette I have yet to see. Like Maggette he’s going to have to move his game outside to play his pro position. Coming out of OSU, he’s not surprisingly a good defender.
Ryan Gomes, Providence	Late first/Early second	Gomes re-made himself from a post-up only player into a “power” 3, with a lot more skill than Graham. He dramatically improved his ball-handling and his perimeter shot.
Linas Kleiza, Missouri	d/undrafted	Kleiza is quality rebounder with a decent offensive repertoire. He probably lacks the quickness to defend SF’s in the NBA. He may go to Europe.

Howard, Nowitzki lead Maverics past sputtering Pistons

Tue, 29 Mar 2005 21:05:34 -0800

TORONTO: Josh Howard scored 24 points and Dirk Nowitzki added 22 as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Detroit Pistons 95-88 in Auburn Hills, Michigan on Monday.

An NBA fun Fact

Tue, 15 Mar 2005 10:31:21 -0800

Came across my desk, thought it would add to the minutae of information

Number of lineups played per team through march 14th

1 Atlanta        434 lineups used
   2 Boston         319 lineups used
   3 Charlotte      597 lineups used
   4 Chicago        292 lineups used
   5 Cleveland      257 lineups used
   6 Dallas         374 lineups used
   7 Denver         347 lineups used
   8 Detroit        324 lineups used
   9 Golden State   396 lineups used
10 Houston        385 lineups used
11 Indiana        428 lineups used
12 LA Clippers    328 lineups used
13 LA Lakers      243 lineups used
14 Memphis        350 lineups used
15 Miami          251 lineups used
16 Milwaukee      298 lineups used
17 Minnesota      209 lineups used
18 New Jersey     527 lineups used
19 New Orleans    382 lineups used
20 New York       358 lineups used
21 Orlando        325 lineups used
22 Philadelphia   281 lineups used
23 Phoenix        233 lineups used
24 Portland       336 lineups used
25 Sacramento     306 lineups used
26 San Antonio    254 lineups used
27 Seattle        170 lineups used
28 Toronto        253 lineups used
29 Utah           386 lineups used
30 Washington     321 lineups used

The Mavs current injury free starting lineup of Damp, Fin, Dirk, Josh Howard and Jason Terry has played a total of 293 minutes together.

The Suns starting lineup of Nash, Marion, Amare, Richardson and Johnson has played a total of 1057 minutes together

Sacs New starting lineup of bibby, Songalia, mobley,Peja and Skinner has played 85 minutes together so far.

The Spurs starting five of TD, Rasho, Ginobbli, Bowen and Parker has played 575 mins together

And the Sonics starting 5 of James, Lewis, Allen, Ridnour and Evans has played 666 mins together.