HOOPLOG: Luther Head

Rockets' Head Ready for Rookie Challenge

Fri, 17 Feb 2006 09:54:11 -0800

In the HOUSTON CHRONICLE, Megan Manfull writes that Luther Head "has listened to Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy preach defense all season. No one would blame Head if he tuned all that talk out of his mind when the NBA rookies kick off the All-Star Game festivities" tonight in the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge (TNT, 9:00 ET).

Rookie Revue

Wed, 08 Feb 2006 08:54:10 -0800

It’s been about a month and a half since we checked in on this year’s rookies. There are two developments that will go on in the next few weeks that will have drastic effect on rookies. One is a negative: the vaunted “rookie wall” that threatens to hurt rookie numbers across the board. The actual effect of the rookie wall isn’t too clear, and it’s not definitely going to affect anyone in particular, but it’s something to think about. The other development is a positive: with a half a season under their belt, some rooks are going to start figuring out the game, force their way onto the court, and start putting up fantasy-starter-like numbers (see Raymond Felton as a perfect example). Anyhow, let’s go down the list:

Plug n’ Play

Andrew Bogut – Despite Joe Smith’s return to the court, Bogut is still a dependable second center in almost all formats. He doesn’t do anything particularly well other than shoot from the field (53%), but he does chip in enough points, boards, steals and blocks to be a fixture in your lineup.

Chris Paul – He’s the ROY. He’s getting consideration for the All-Star Game (which he shouldn’t, but that’s another story). Needless to say, he’s a great play and if you drafted him this year, odds are you got a steal. However, he’s also a classic candidate for the “rookie wall” effect, as he’s played major minutes all year, he’s small, and he’s charging all over the court at 100 mph every game.

Channing Frye – He’s in Plug n’ Play, but just barely. Less Antonio Davis means the potential for more minutes for Channing, but he’s just not earning them – his shooting is down since the new year and he’s still struggling to top 20 mpg. If he didn’t qualify at Center, he wouldn’t be here.

Charlie Villanueva – We’ve been hyping him since day one, and he’s starting to show some returns. Since the Rose trade, he’s put up 17/7.8 with 2.8 3’s and 1 block, starting numbers in any format. He’s a possible Donyell Marshall clone – and I mean that in a good way. But we’ll see how Antonio Davis cuts into his PT.

Raymond Felton – Felton is a brand new FBB favorite. He starting getting it together in January, and now in February he’s got 20/6.3/8 with 2 3’s and 2 steals. He’s also playing well alongside Brevin Knight, and while we don’t think he’ll maintain these numbers, he should put up at least 15/4/6 with a steal and a three.

Just Not There – Yet.

Sarunas Jasekivicius – I think it’s safe to leave Sarunas on the waiver wire at this point. We’ve waited all year to see him get starter’s minutes, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t gotten them. When Jamaal Tinsley went down with an injury (or eight), the minutes went to Anthony Johnson – not exactly a ringing endorsement for the ex-Terp. Still, we’ll keep him in this category.

Danny Granger – He’s very close to being a Plug n’ Play. In fact, I’m sure I’ll get a lot of flack for this. His last five games have been extremely encouraging, but let’s see him keep it up for another week or two.

Marvin Williams – I don’t think he’ll ever justify being drafted ahead of Chris Paul, but I’ve been impressed with Williams of late. He’s quite simply still learning to play the game. But his athleticism is unquestioned, his improvement has been steady, and he’ll be worth a late-round flyer next year. He’s no Darko.

Nate Robinson – If he can’t get minutes under Larry Brown with Stephon Marbury out, I don’t see any reason why he’ll get any sort of reliable minutes over the rest of the year. If he gets traded, though, there’s always a chance.

Nice Try - Maybe Next Year

Ike Diogu – Last month’s hot pickup is this month’s hot drop. He’s got promise, just not for this year.

Jarrett Jack – Listen – if you try and take minutes from our boy Steve Blake, you’re in for a rude awakening. Still, Jack has played very well and could be a nice fantasy player in the future.

Deron Williams – Milt Palacio? Really? Still probably worth a roster spot – if you’ve got room on your bench.

Luther Head – Last month’s hot pick … oh wait, I already used that line.

Salim Stoudamire – He’s not gonna get the minutes he needs to be productive, but he’s got Allan Houston-esque potential down the line.

Already Maxed Out

Jose Calderon – He’s a backup point guard on a poor NBA team. I don’t think there’s any reason to think he’ll be more than a complimentary piece this year, or even in later years.

As the Point Guard Turns

Mon, 12 Dec 2005 08:11:04 -0800

Chicago

Kirk Hinrich’s a tough dude. After leaving the season opener with an ankle injury and being questionable the next night, he came out and went for 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting with 3 3s. After being knocked out with a concussion against Dallas, he did miss a game, but then came back with averages of 24/4.5/10 in his next two games. You’ve got to like that. I normally leave players on the bench for a game to let them get back into the swing of things after an injury, but after Hinrich’s last performance I made sure to get him back in. Of course, it should be noted that Captain Kirk saw an average of 43 minutes in those two games due to the absence of Ben Gordon.

I should have known better than to give Chris Duhon any credit. He promptly had four absolute nightmare games before exploding for 24 points, 7 assists and 6 3s against, of course, the goddamn Wizards. Duhon’s still worth keeping around because he’s one of the few players you can tell Scott Skiles actually likes. His steals and 3s are still solid, but he’s starting to lose some of his assists to Hinrich. His minutes have remained fairly consistent, but it was a good thing he had that great game before Ben Gordon came back, because then things would have gotten interesting. ESPN’s Player Rater isn’t the gospel, but it’s an effective tool; as of Saturday night, Duhon was right in between Richard Hamilton and T.J. Ford. Numbers don’t lie, right?

Miami

Was I a little too early in proclaiming the death of Gary Payton’s fantasy relevancy? Looks that way. With Jason Williams nursing a bum knee, Payton has played 42 mpg in two starts, averaging 17/3.5/3 with 2.5 3s and 1.5 steals in his last two. His shot looked especially strong last night in a game against the Wizards THAT WAS HANDED TO THE HEAT BY THE OFFICIALS. Sorry, lost my composure there a bit, the last two Wizards games have been especially brutal. But that was a fucking fraud. Anyway, the 3-pointers are the big news here. Payton hadn’t been a serious long distance threat since the 00-01 season when he averaged 1.3 per game. But The Man Formerly Known as The Glove is putting them up at a high rate this season. Against the Wiz he was spotting up in the corner on multiple occasions – these were designed plays. In his four starts Payton – who topped 8 apg in six straight seasons in the prime of his career – has had more than 3 assists just once, so these 3s are huge for his value, especially since he’s nowhere near the pickpocket he used to be. If he’s going be seeing roughly 40 minutes per games there’s no problem with using him. In weekly leagues he makes a possibly excellent play – the Heat play four games, but who knows when Williams will return?

Atlanta

In case you didn’t notice, there’s a new starting PG in the league. You’d be forgiven for not noticing, of course. Royal Ivey has started the last three games for the Hawks and after a somewhat promising debut in which he scored 14 on 7-of-10 shooting, he still hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in any of those starts. Tyronn Lue is still seeing just about the same amount of time even though he’s now coming off the bench. Actually, I should probably just stop now. The title of this section is Five Situations to Pay Attention To, and unless you play in the deepest league in the entire country, this is certainly not a situation worth your attention.

Los Angeles Lakers

Call me crazy, but I think Sasha Vujajic might actually have some fantasy value at some point this season. The triangle offense doesn’t need a traditional point guard to run it, but Parker barely even resembles a point guard. He’s certainly more of a swingman, and his 1.65:1 assist/turnover ratio backs this up. He’s been putting up decent numbers, but the majority of his production has come early in games. On Saturday he had no production at all; no points, no rebounds, 3 assists, missed all 7 of his shots in 24 minutes. Vujacic wasn’t much better, making only 1-of-3 and he didn’t register a single assist in his 24 minutes. The Lakers have been playing better lately, but they still have very little margin for error. Vujacic’s 3.9:1 assist/turnover ranks fourth in the league, behind only Eric Snow, Brevin Knight and Chauncey Billups. It’s not hard to envision Jackson getting fed up with Parker and making a switch. But what kind of value would Vujajic have if he could find regular PT? Marginal, to be sure. He’s not going to be in there for his scoring, and his 31% shooting so far in his career is almost historically bad. I see him similar to Duhon in that he could hit enough 3s and steals to be a marginal play in weeks when he has enough games, or as a guy to keep on your bench and plug in when the inevitable injuries hit.

Denver

Say this about Earl Boykins: his 26 mpg usually means 26 minutes. In 18 of his 21 games the little man has received between 22 and 29 minutes, which makes him a little easier to deal with than guys that fluctuate between 17-33-24, etc. But the last four games show why Boykins just isn’t a reliable player. Through the season’s first 16 games Boykins was averaging 0.8 3s and 1.1 steals – not great numbers, but enough to merit a utility spot in deep leagues. But that’s about as good as it gets for Boykins in those categories, and you know that he’ll never grab any boards or shoot above 42%. Lots of people have been hoping for Earl to sneak into the starting lineup, but this is a guy who has started 10 games in his 379 game career. His role seems pretty defined. With Andre Miller on one of his hot streaks and piling up the assists, there’s no point in shifting him over to SG in favor of Boykins. You can do better.

Comet Gain

Gilbert Arenas – That was a brutal shooting game last night, but he’s starting to rack up the steals and fills up the box score every night. Think of him as the new AI.

Brevin Knight – Owners don’t have him for scoring, but certainly won’t complain about 17.5 ppg to go along with 9 apg and 2.7 spg in his last six.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – A little bit of everything in his five starts: 11.0/4.2/5.4 with 1.6 3s, 1.0 steals on 52% and 94% shooting. Liking my Brent Barry comparison more and more.

Mo Williams – He’s back on the bench now, but those numbers in his four starts – 19.3/1.5/7.0 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals – and his consistent 3-point gunning off the bench make him worthy of at least a bench spot.

Baron Davis – Yeah yeah yeah, he can’t shoot. But optimists will look at his 41% career number and think that means he’ll shoot around 43% from here on out. Hey, it’s possible.

The Hold Steady

Chauncey Billups – How nice is it to have a guy like this on your team? Holding strong with that career high assist number.

Derek Fisher – Last two games were especially encouraging – no 3s, but still managed to average 16.5 with 1.5 steals. You know my non-starter policy, but if you’re desperate…

Tony Parker – After no steals in first four games, averaging 1.6 since then. In a bit of a shooting slump, but that was to be expected.

Marko Jaric – Life without Hudson is nice; 15.5/5.5/6.0 with 2 3s and 1 steal in 37.5 minutes in last two. Sell high? If you can…

Delonte West – I’m becoming a believer; eight straight games of 30+ minutes and just enough steals, blocks and 3s to merit that final roster spot in your lineup.

The Fall

Deron Williams – Jerry Sloan can’t take all the blame; 31% shooting and 17/12 assist/turnover in last four just won’t cut it.

Sebastian Telfair – You don’t look for rebounds from PG, but four in his last six games is flat-out pathetic;

Jameer Nelson – Back to the bench with Francis back; he’s crippling in leagues that count TO.

Damon Jones – A forgotten man in most recent game; hard to see him making an impact any time soon.

Luther Head – As expected, he’s slid off to irrelevance with the return of McGrady.

Head On

Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:53:10 -0800

So the popular pickup in leagues across the country last night was surely Luther Head. I must give credit to the guy in my league who snagged him a few hours before last night’s tip off. Good thinking. Head started, played 43 minutes and poured in 28 points, grabbed 7 boards, hit 5 3s, made 9-of-17 from the field, all 5 free throws, and added 3 assists. Quite a game. Still, color me skeptical that Head will be able to keep this up, or even come close. First off, the Rockets just don’t score enough so that anyone but Yao will have consistent value when Tracy McGrady is out. Yao is clearly the team’s first option, and they slow the game down to a crawl to get him involved. Usually there’s one player that manages to have a fantasy-worthy game in addition to Yao (who it should be noted is shooting 36-for-89 – 40% -- with T-Mac out compared to 44-for-76 – 58% with him in there). Maybe it will be David Wesley, maybe Derek Anderson, maybe Head. It’s risky to be counting on any of them. The more intriguing development is that if Head does manage to have a few more games close to this level, Rafer Alston might have a really, really hard time finding those 35 mpg he needs when he comes back. It’s looking worse and worse for Rafer everyday.

Some other recently won starting jobs and thoughts on them…

Jarvis Hayes – It’s well known that we’re Wizards fanatics around here, so it’s quite rare that I’ll miss a minute of any Wizards game. Over the past week this has caused me much frustration. In an effort to shake things up, Eddie Jordan replaced the struggling (putting it quite mildly) Antonio Daniels in the starting lineup with Jarvis Hayes. I’ll say this about Hayes – he is clearly the most improved player on the Wizards this year. He was drafted as a jump shooting specialist, but the thing was, over this first two years he could not shoot. He hit 40% and 39% of his shots in his first two seasons, and also had trouble staying healthy. But something has clicked this year. His jumper has always looked smooth and now it’s actually starting to fall, as Jarvis is connecting on 46% of his shots. His ideal range is out to 20 feet or so, he’s not a great three-point shooter, but he’s taking more than ever this year, and could connect on just over 1 per game if he keeps his starting job. He’s a good rebounder when he wants to, and the Wizards could really use him crashing the boards more, but he’ll never be much of a plus there. And that’s the rub with Jarvis’s fantasy game. He’ll never hit a ton of 3s, get many steals or blocks or score all that much. He got 31 minutes in his first start last night, and if he stays around that number he’ll be a very borderline fantasy play, because he’ll need to shoot a high percentage to have much value. Also, he’s no better than the fourth option on this team. Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will all get their production. Butler didn’t play as much last night, but it’s hard to see Eddie Jordan leaving him on the bench in favor of Jared Jeffries for too much longer. Hayes is worth a look if you have a roster spot to play with, but it’s hard to see him helping you out too much.

Jim Jackson – It’s hard to imagine anyone picked up JJ after his 0-for-7 stinker last night. Jackson entered the starting lineup with Leandro Barbosa out of action for a couple of weeks, but didn’t take advantage of the opportunity at all. But take a look at the minutes column – in his first game as a starter, JJ saw 35 minutes of action. Only Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, who played 42 minutes each, saw more time on the court. So if Mike D’Antoni was willing to keep JJ out there for 35 when he couldn’t hit a shot to save his life, it will be interesting to see what happens when the shot does start to fall. But that might be wishful thinking. JJ is shooting an almost impossibly bad 27% on the season, which is why he hadn’t seen more than 18 minute since the season opener before last night. Still, he’s a proven vet, and he did connect on 3 or more 3s in 18 games last season. He’s likely completely off most people’s radar right now, but there’s a slight chance he could erupt for a boat load of 3s in the next game or two. He’s worth keeping an eye on at least.

Josh Smith – So he’s making his way back into the starting lineup tonight, mercifully putting Josh Childress on the bench. Young guys coming off a strong second half, never trust ‘em. Wait, so that means Smith too, right? Eh, maybe. Anyway, Smith will move back into the starting lineup, but will that mean a big boost in his value? He played 27 and 28 minutes as a starter in the first two games of the season. Since he moved to the bench his PT has been very inconsistent, but he’s still managed to at least 30 minutes in four of those games. In those four contests that he’s seen at least 30 minutes his numbers are 11.3/5/1.8 with 1.3 steals and – here it is – 3 blocks. OK, the dude has a worse looking jump shot than your sister, as his 34% FG will attest, and every time I see him launch a jumper I cringe. If there is anyone who ¾ of his FGA should be dunks, layups, follows, alley-oops, it’s Smith. The point is, moving into the starting lineup is always a good thing. Even if he doesn’t see much more than the 30 minutes he was often getting off the bench, there is a much better chance he won’t see those killer 15 minute outings. Everything’s obviously up in the air in Atlanta, but Smith still has the potential to slot as the team’s #3 option on offense, behind Joe Johnson and Al Harrington. Smith’s blocks make him and obvious fantasy dream, but he’s a borderline play until he gets his rebounds and FG% back to where they were last year. If he can manage consistent time as a starter, I’d bet on both of those happening. I might still wait a game or two before plugging him back in there, but soon it will be time.

We’ll try to have something up on Friday, but we make no promises. Happy Thanksgiving.

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE -- November 17th

Thu, 17 Nov 2005 22:53:19 -0800

Minnesota 109 Washington 98 – Another great win for Case …. Games was basically tied to start the 4th and Minnesota clutched up. That has been tough for Minny because teams have been denying the ball to KG and they haven’t had anyone else step up. The sad thing is that KG is one of the best distrubtors in the game so it should be easy to play off of him. Tonight they did Richie Frahm had 16 and Wally World had 17…. KG is one of a kind 25-13-9 … Wolves outrebounded the Wiz 45 to 31 …. I always thought Frahm was the perfect back-up to Ray Allen. He can shoot the lights out, he is strong and physical and willing to defend. Send him in for 10 minutes to beat the guy up and hit a shot or two. It always seemed perfect … Minnesota shot 54%. This jumps out because early this year Washington was playing the best defense in the league and the last few games they have stopped defending … I have always believed that Minnesota is best when they go small and play KG at the center. They won this game with a line-up of Hudson, Frahm, Wally, Griffin and KG. If Casey does that Minnesota will be tough.

Dallas 87 Atlanta 78 – Who wins a game first Atlanta or Toronto? ….. Marvin Williams made his first start …. It is almost impossible to evaluate any Hawk player because the team is so poor that someone has to score and rebound and you can’t tell if it is because they are good or if is out of existence …. Dallas only scored 11 points in the first quarter… Erick Dampier is such a bust. Tonight he played 20 minutes, was 0 for 2 fouled out and had 6 turnovers. … very strange substitution pattern by Mike Woodson the Hawks starting line-up went on a 10 to 2 run to open the game and a 9-1 run in the second half and he never played them together other then those times.

San Antonio 86 Houston 80 – Houston slips to 3-5 … Houston never led …. Yao Ming scored just one point in the second half …. The Spurs signed Alex Scales who was in the Sonics camp. He was active but did not play …. The three starters for the Rockets other then Yao and McGrady were a combined 3 for 16. That is not much help …. Van Gundy has been yo-yoing rookie Luther Head from not playing to 20+ minutes….. Juwan Howard and Derek Anderson were –14 in 20 minutes …. Interesting Yao Ming was +8 in 42 minutes. That means in the 6 minutes he was off the floor they got outscored by 14 points.

Kwame flips coasts

Fri, 15 Jul 2005 12:49:52 -0800

Forum Blue and Gold: Kwame Comes To Town

There are doubts about his work ethic, but will a change of scenery and a new coach change that? Last season Brown shot 64% inside but just 32.8% from outside jumpers, but according to those that have watched him, many of those were fade aways that started on the block (this is not from Pincus, but from a couple of people who know the Wizards well). He has a nice jump hook, but because his first step is great but his jumper iffy, defenders play off him. If the jumper becomes consistent is scoring threat goes up.

His rebounding has never been good for a power forward (a career 13.8% rebound rate [percent of available rebounds grabbed]), can Phil get him to focus on that? The scouting report on him is that when he wants to be, he is a good rebounder.

That scouting report I got also said he is a good man defender but not a great help defender. For his career, he averages just 1.4 blocks per 48 minutes (for comparison, Chris Mihm is 2.5), can Phil get him to improve this part of his game?

The Kwame who defied expectations:

Fantasy Impact (Lakers)

Obviously, the Lakers needed a stronger prescence in the middle. Not sure that I would have gone after Kwame myself… but they did, so what can I do? Nothing. Besides, if he continues to struggle, so will the Lakers. And I don’t have a problem with that. That’s right, I’m as biased as you can get.

Chris Mihm got 25 minutes last year. His numbers per 48 are a lot better than Kwame’s. The Lakers also picked up Andrew Bynum and Ronny Turiaf. I think Turiaf is probably ready to play PF in the NBA (from the, like, 2 games I saw Gonzaga play last season). Bynum will obviously be backing up Brown and Mihm (and Medvedenko for that matter). Brown is probably good enough to work within the Triangle Offense, especially with Lamar and Kobe around him.

Personally, I think the Lakers should have traded down from #10 and taken Jarrett Jack or Luther Head to help them out at the PG position. Or they could have stayed small with Sean May and Mihm at PF and C, Odom at SF, and Kobe and Chucky in the backcourt. But, I digress. I guess it’s because I still have yet to fully digest the draft that I had to indulge myself in that tangent.

The Kwame who looks like he’s defying expectations in this picture:

So, if Kwame picks up the other 24 minutes not filled by Mihm (who’s minutes would not decrease if I were Phil Jackson), he’s going to give you every bit of that 7 and 5 he had last season, and maybe a little more. What about the 0.4 blocks? Don’t fret, those’ll be there. If I was 6′11″ I do believe I could get 0.4 block in my sleep. And I’m white. Kwame was taken 101st last year in ESPN drafts and owned in 6.1% of leagues (which I guess isn’t that bad since Lamar was only owned in 70% of all leagues). The only people who’s numbers are going to go down on the Lakers are the ones you don’t want anyway.

Fantasy Impact (Wizards)

The Wizards aren’t doing so bad considering they lost out on Larry Hughes (but at least they didn’t overpay for him, like I would argue that other team probably did… but then, I can’t even imagine being paid $13 million a year, so I guess my perspective might be skewed). The additions of Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins, and The Next Kevin Garnett. Atkins will be a good backup for Gilbert Arenas, and they’ll probably end up sharing some time together in the backcourt. That said, Dude ain’t gone play no 35 minutes next year. (Speaking of which, who the hell are the Lakers going to play for 35 minutes at the PG position?? Comments please!) Atkins is this: 10 points, 3 assists (maybe more if Arenas and the other Wizards are hitting shots), and 1 three-pointer a game.

Butler will be starting over Jeffries unless he gets moved to SG (not alltogether unlikely). No matter what, though, he’s going to get at least as much time as he had last year since he played 35 minutes and Hughes was putting in 38. I can see Caron going to 38 and giving 17/18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists (4 if he plays more at shooting guard), and 1.5 steals.

I believe that Etan Thomas and Jared Jeffries will step up to fill in the couple extra points the Wizards lost with the departure of Hughes. I know Thomas is capable of it because he was backing up Emeka Okeafor on my EA Live team and when Chuke went down with an ankle sprain for 4 weeks, Etan stepped it up and was putting up double-doubles. He’s the real deal. I think he’s definitely a GiveMeTheRockian Candidate.

Count it.

Kwame flips coasts

Fri, 15 Jul 2005 12:49:52 -0800

Forum Blue and Gold: Kwame Comes To Town

There are doubts about his work ethic, but will a change of scenery and a new coach change that? Last season Brown shot 64% inside but just 32.8% from outside jumpers, but according to those that have watched him, many of those were fade aways that started on the block (this is not from Pincus, but from a couple of people who know the Wizards well). He has a nice jump hook, but because his first step is great but his jumper iffy, defenders play off him. If the jumper becomes consistent is scoring threat goes up.

His rebounding has never been good for a power forward (a career 13.8% rebound rate [percent of available rebounds grabbed]), can Phil get him to focus on that? The scouting report on him is that when he wants to be, he is a good rebounder.

That scouting report I got also said he is a good man defender but not a great help defender. For his career, he averages just 1.4 blocks per 48 minutes (for comparison, Chris Mihm is 2.5), can Phil get him to improve this part of his game?

The Kwame who defied expectations:

Fantasy Impact (Lakers)

The Kwame who looks like he’s defying expectations in this picture:

Fantasy Impact (Wizards)

Count it.

Rockets sign first-rounder Luther Head (AP)

Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:02:44 -0800

The Houston Rockets signed first-round pick Luther Head on Friday. The Rockets selected Head with the 24th overall pick Tuesday. ``It's always great when you can come to an agreement early with your draft pick,'' Rockets general manager Carroll Dawson said in a statement. ``Now that Luther is on board, we can begin getting him acquainted with our system and give him a jump start in preparing for the...

Rockets draft Luther Head of Illinois

Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:01:57 -0800

The Rockets took Luther Head of Illinois with the 24th pick in the NBA Draft. Head led the Fighting Illini with 15.9 points per game and was part of a lethal three-guard lineup that led Illinois to the Final ...

Update 10 - Luther Head!

Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:01:39 -0800

Wow! There's LOTS of big men left ! The fabulous 5! Martynas Andriuskevicius Johan Petro Chris Taft Wayne Simien Roko -Leni Ukic

Mock Draft, pt 2

Mon, 27 Jun 2005 18:36:11 -0800

For picks 1 through 13, check out Friday's post.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they will take: Antoine Wright
Who they should take: Francisco Garcia
Minnesota is a team that needs to draft based on attitude. They way under-performed last year, and they need to plan for a future without dead weights like Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell. I like Garcia here because of his passing ability, but Wright isn’t a terrible choice.

15. New Jersey Nets
Who they will take: Martell Webster
Who they should take: Ike Diogu
New Jersey, if they could, would spend their draft pick on a great doctor to make sure Jason Kidd and Vince Carter stay healthy next year. While they should take a rebounding PF, they’ll go for the Kerry Kittles of the future in Martell Webster. This pushes Carter to the 3 and Jefferson to the 4. I’d much rather have them at 2 and 3, respectively.

16. Toronto Raptors
Who they will take: Ike Diogu
Who they should take: Ike Diogu
Toronto is in a tough spot. They’ve got Alston, Rose, and Bosh as defiinite starters. They took Granger at 16, but now they wish they had taken a big there, so they could take Garcia here. That said, there’s not a spot for Garcia and Bosh needs help down low, so they go for the top-rated big left on the board in Diogu.

17. Indiana Pacers
Who they will take: Francisco Garcia
Who they should take: Francisco Garcia
Indiana is my pick to win the East next year. Last year everything that could have possibly gone wrong did, and now they’ve got Artest coming back with a vengeance. Yikes. They could really use some size to back up Jeff Foster and Dale Davis, but Garcia is too good to pass up here.

18. Boston Celtics
Who they will take: Roko Ukic
Who they should take: Johan Petro
Payton isn’t long for the C’s, so Ukic is actually a pretty good pick here. But really, how far will you get with Mark Blount and Raef LaFrentz in the middle?

19. San Antonio (in trade with Memphis Grizzlies)
Who they will take: Joey Graham
Who they should take: Joey Graham
Joey Graham keeps slipping and slipping, and finally San Antonio moves up to get him, giving Memphis their first round pick (#28) and Beno Uridh, who will take over at point for Jason Williams, who has fallen into Jerry West’s doghouse.

20. Denver Nuggets
Who they will take: Martynas Andriuskevicius
Who they should take: Rashad McCants
Denver is pretty sure they want Andriuskevicius here … and the fact that Phoenix is salivating over him means they definitely take him, because he won’t be around for them at 22. They’ll stash him in the D-League for a couple years and once Marcus Camby breaks down for good, he’ll be ready. Hopefully.

21. Phoenix Suns
Who they will take: Johan Petro
Who they should take: Jarrett Jack
Phoenix is dying to get some defense, and Petro should be a decent backup for Kurt Thomas. But I’d like to see them get a successor for MVP Steve Nash. Let Jack grow under Nash’s Canadian wing for a few years.

22. Denver Nuggets
Who they will take: Rashad McCants
Who they should take: Rashad McCants
As a team that ran into a couple of rough stretches offensively last year, this is a great pick. If they treat him like the Bulls treated Ben Gordon, he could be invaluable to this team and a great competitor.

23. Sacramento Kings
Who they will take: Jarrett Jack
Who they should take: Charlie Villanueva
The Kings look for the next Bobby Jackson in Jack, who is a nice value pick here.

24. Houston Rockets
Who they will take: Wayne Simien
Who they should take: Wayne Simien
He’s the guy they’ve targeted since day 1. Villanueva is tempting but they don’t need 2 passive guys in the paint. Simien is a nice fit here.

25. Seattle Sonics
Who they will take: Charlie Villanueva
Who they should take: Charlie Villanueva
It’s between Villanueva and Chris Taft, and Villanueva has at least some upside. Taft seems like a bigger version of Terrence Morris.

26. Detroit Pistons
Who they will take: Linus Kleiza
Who they should take: Salim Stoudamire
The Pistons are deep just about everywhere so they’ll take Kleiza and stash him in the D-league for a year or two, but really, they could use a one-dimensional shooter like Stoudamire for late-game situations.

27. Utah Jazz
Who they will take: Luther Head
Who they should take: Luther Head
The Jazz prayed for Jarrett Jack to fall here, but they’ll have to settle for Head. Ha!

28. Memphis Grizzlies (from San Antonio)
Who they will take: Julius Hodge.
Who they should take: Julius Hodge.
Jerry West loves Hodge, and after the deal with San Antonio, they’ve got Udrih and Hodge to play the point, 2 of "Jerry’s guys".

29. Miami Heat
Who they will take: Mile Ilic
Who they should take: Salim Stoudamire
The Heat go for Shaq’s new backup, but they should be concerned about the short window that they have to win it all. Stoudamire would be a better choice.

30. New York Knicks
Who they will take: Chris Taft
Who they should take: Chris Taft
Hey, why not? At least he’s tall.

Working out eight players

Wed, 15 Jun 2005 20:08:41 -0800

The Utah Jazz will continue preparations for the upcoming NBA draft by working out eight players Thursday and Friday at the team's practice facility. Donnell Taylor of Alabama-Birmingham Ricky Shields of Rutgers Josh Pace of Syracuse and Luther Head of Illinois will participate in Thursday morning's session. Dijon Thompson of UCLA Omar Thomas of UTEP Ronnie Price of Utah Valley State College and Martell Webster of Seattle Prep High School will participate on Friday morning. A 6-foot-6 shooting guard Webster is the most highly-regarded player to work out for the Jazz in Utah so far.

Brrr…. Is There a Draft in Here?

Sat, 21 May 2005 17:48:38 -0800

[While KnickerBlogger has been ignoring his blog by shmoozing it up with close friends visiting from out of town, KnickerBlogger's Head College Expert David Crockett has been busy thinking about the Knicks future. In an attempt to become the Mel Kiper Jr. of the NBA, "Dr. C." has gone over the Knicks' needs for the June draft.

David Crockett is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of South Carolina, and can be reached at dcrockett17@yahoo.com.]

On May 24^th the 2005 Draft Lottery will take place in the NBA studios. At that time the Knicks will know where they will draft in what is shaping up as a reasonably talented draft, depending on which early entrants hire agents and stay in the draft. Of course the playoffs will determine where the team’s second first round pick, obtained from the Spurs (via Phoenix), will be chosen. I knew it was time to think about a draft column when I got an email from a buddy of mine, a bona fide Jayhawk backer and Duke hater, comprised of three short sentences:

I hope you’re sitting down when you read this…
I just heard that Shavlik Randolph is going league.
I am incapable of rational thought right now.

So even though much is still to be determined between now and June I thought I’d fire up my Mel Kiper wig and dig into the NBA draft a bit.

First, We Need a Guard
So what do our beloved Knickerbockers need heading into the 2005-2006 season? Well, in a sharp departure from many of the pundits I believe the Knicks’ first priority is in the backcourt rather than at center.

Stephon Marbury had one of the finest offensive seasons by a New York Knick in recent memory in 2004-2005. Though he is not the league’s best point guard, a claim for which he was waaaay overcriticized, “Starbury” demonstrated the kind of skill and maturity – e.g., moving off the ball to facilitate Crawford’s development – few thought possible. According to Knickerblogger's stat page Marbury’s assist ratio (27.3 assists per 100 possessions) ranked him a somewhat pedestrian 14^th in the league among those playing at least 25 minutes per game. However, he was one of only five players on that list who also had a turnover ratio under 10. 82games.com lists Marbury’s PER as a lofty 23.3 and Knickerblogger reports it as a tad below 23; both numbers are clearly in the high-rent district. Marbury’s efg was over 50% and he went to the line frequently, making 35 free-throws per 100 shots from the floor.

Of course, offense was the problem at the world’s most famous arena this season. Offensively, the Knicks’ 103 points per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency) was middle of the pack (16^th) – a far cry from Phoenix’s 111.8 but better than that posted by these playoff teams: Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Pistons, Sixers, and Grizzlies. Unfortunately, in an all too familiar refrain the Knicks sucked eggs defensively this season; just like last season. However unlike last season when the available statistical evidence failed to provide undisputable proof that the backcourt was the primary problem, this season’s stats are much more sympathetic to this point of view. Marbury and Crawford were, simply put, terrible. According to 82games, in 2003-2004 Marbury held opposing point guards to a surprisingly respectable 14.5 PER. (Average PER is set at 15.) This season he allowed an opponents’ PER of 16.5. Marbury gave up more penetration (26% in-close FGAs vs. 21% in 2003-2004) and more free throw attempts per 48 minutes (4.7 vs. 3.6). His opponents shot 48.6% efg and had over 8 assists per 48. These incidental numbers strongly suggest that Marbury’s shoddy defense requires him to post phenomenal offensive numbers just to remain a net positive and that his offense comes at the price of major stress on the frontcourt to cover for his deficiencies.

Certainly, a large part of Marbury’s inconsistency and ineffectiveness on defense comes from his indifference. However, we are also starting to see the ill-effects of 8 consecutive seasons of 38+ minutes per game (mpg) on his body. He has fatigued at the ends of the last two seasons and his knee became a problem as this season wore on. Is it any wonder? He just completed his ninth season averaging 40 minutes per game and a career high in total minutes, 2^nd only to Lebron James. Only in Marbury’s rookie season did he average fewer than 38 mpg. It would simply be foolish for the Knicks to continue to play Marbury 38-40 minutes per night without expecting his body to break down even more rapidly and eventually impact his offense. Marbury can be more effective playing fewer minutes. Jason Kidd has had seven sub-38 mpg seasons, including each season in New Jersey. Steve Nash has yet to average 38 mpg in any season. This season he averaged 34 (not even among the top 50), managing the league’s most efficient offense without a “true” backup point guard no less. If these two guys are playing around 34-35 mpg Marbury should be playing no more.

At the shooting guard position Jamal Crawford looked every bit the “instant offense” third guard he really is this season. At times he was indefensible but as his minutes increased to 38+ his warts became more visible. According to 82games.com, in his minutes at shooting guard Crawford shot almost 50% and had a more than respectable 16.8 PER. However his 18.2 opponents’ PER made everyone he guarded look practically like Peja Stojakovic. Crawford, like his backcourt mate, gave up tons of penetration to opposing guards (26% in-close FG%), and ever the gentlemen, regularly ushered them to the free throw line (5.3 FTA per 48). Whatever additional pressure Marbury put on the frontcourt to mask his defensive shortcomings Crawford matched, only without the consistent offensive production. The Knicks don’t want to be forced to play Crawford more than 20-25 mpg, much less the 38+ he played this season.

The Knicks desperately need backcourt help. On a per 48 minute basis the opposing backcourt is taking more than half its shots from in close and taking 10 trips to the free throw line. The key to defensive improvement is cutting down on the penetration from opposing guards. A shot-blocking center that can erase penetration is a luxury; one most teams must live without. Such players are in woefully short supply and the Knicks would not be wise to pin their hopes on acquiring a ready made center in the draft or the free agent market.

The wiser course of action is to look to the draft for backcourt help. The value appears to be at point guard, with high-quality collegiate point guards available into the 2^nd round. The shooting guard position looks weak by comparison. Which point guards and shooting guards should the Knicks consider with their three picks? I’ve listed a few players the Knicks might consider just to whet the appetite. More will come after the Chicago pre-draft camp and workouts. (Note: comments on college players only.)

Point Guards

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Chris Paul, Wake Forest	Early first round, 2^nd (New Orleans) to 6^th (Milwaukee), depending on team needs and workouts	Paul was perhaps the most efficient offensive perimeter player in the nation this season. He absolutely lived at the free throw line; amazing for a sub-six footer. On the other hand, Paul doesn’t defend. The Knicks don’t need anymore of that.
Deron Williams, Illinois	Early first round 4^th (Utah) to late lottery 16^th (Toronto) depending on workouts	I really like Williams even though he doesn’t fit Isiah’s “athleticism” mantra. He’s a high IQ, instinctive player. He’s a bit like Andre Miller without the post-up game but a much better jump shooter. He’s best-suited to run a half-court screen-roll or a passing and cutting offense but he can get up and down too.
Raymond Felton, North Carolina	Early first round 4^th (Utah) to mid-lottery 12^th (LA Clippers)	No college player is better than Felton at pushing the ball at the defense. He’s smart, fearless, he defends, and his jump shot is developing. He’s tailor-made for an uptempo team that asks its point guard to penetrate-and-kick. He strikes me as a comparable, though better prospect than T.J. Ford because of his strength.
Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech.	Mid-lottery 8^th (Knicks) to end of round 1 30^th (Knicks) depending on workouts	Declared but hasn’t hired an agent. Opinions are all over the place on him. His detractors generally point to his turnovers. I love Jack’s all around game, particularly his on ball defense, and his athleticism. If he goes to Chicago and plays well he could solidify his status in the mid-to-late lottery.
Nate Robinson, Washington	Early 2^nd round	Robinson is an exceptional on-ball defender and may be the best pound-for-pound athlete in the draft. Unfortunately, he also may have hurt his draft status more than any other player with a disappointing NCAA tournament.
John Gilchrist, Maryland	Early to mid 2^nd round	He has everything you could ask for from a physical standpoint. His basketball IQ just isn’t there yet. He should have gone back to school.
Luther Head, Illinois	Early-to-mid 2^nd round	Luther is a combo guard who will find his way onto a team as an excellent passer, defensive stopper, and a guy who will take a big shot.
Aaron Miles, Kansas	Late 2^nd round/free agent	Miles has all the intangibles – basketball IQ, pure point guard skills, feel for the game, leadership, toughness, unselfishness – but lacks size and anything resembling a jump shot. He’s small and light. He has to find the right situation, or as I heard someone put it recently, “Hit the Chris Duhon lottery.”

Of the point guards listed I think Williams, Felton, and Jack have the most to contribute to the Knicks immediately. Each could run the second unit. Each pushes the ball and thinks pass-first, but can score if needed. Most importantly, each will play their first NBA summer league game as a better on-ball defender than Marbury or Crawford is right now.

Shooting Guards

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Antoine Wright, Texas A&M	Late lottery #10 (Lakers) to #30 (Knicks)	Played his entire career on really awful teams but put up good numbers. He’s a willing defender and a potentially dynamite scorer. He has an NBA ready body.
Kennedy Winston, Alabama	Late lottery #10 (Lakers) to #30 (Knicks)	There is a lot to like. Winston has a great body and a great stroke, but can be lazy defensively and is turnover prone.
Francisco Garcia, Louisville	Late first round #20 (Denver) to #30 (Knicks)	Garcia is the Deron Williams of shooting guards. His basketball skills and IQ are his biggest assets. He’ll need to go to a team that values those things and is willing to live with his athletic deficiencies.
Salim Stoudamire, Arizona	Early 2^nd round	More Steve Kerr (pure shooter) than Eddie House (scorer). Unlike House or Kerr though, Stoudamire’s defense will allow him to stay on the floor. Also, he can run the point for a few minutes a night.
Tiras Wade, LA-Lafayette	Mid-late 2^nd round	Big-time scorer with nice size from a small conference.
Alex Acker, Pepperdine	Late 2^nd round/free agent	Alex is another combo guard. An athletic 6’5” with some legitimate point guard skills he could conceivably work his way into round 1.

Overall, I’m not so sure this is the draft the Knicks will find an heir apparent to Houston at shooting guard, particularly once Wright and Winston are off the board. I’m assuming Isiah isn’t silly enough to consider a schoolboy shooting guard (Gerald Green or Martell Webster), particularly since defense rather than scoring is the problem in the backcourt. The Knicks may be best off continuing to develop Ariza as a swing man rotating him with Crawford and Penny.

Coming Soon: We Need a Center Too

Time to talk a little draft...and tourney.

Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:05:18 -0800

Today the mock draft has Portland picking up 2 Illinois guys, Deron Williams at #9 and Luther Head at #39. First of all I think they are nuts thinking that Luther Head won't go MUCH higher than 39! I like both players (of course) and I am thrilled at the prospect.

Both Deron and Luther would be great choices for Portland. We need shooters and these two guys can certainly do that. 2 out of 3 heads of the " three headed monster "would certainly be a coup for the Blazers. Heck, maybe next year they can snag the third- Dee Brown .

OK OK...since I am on the subject I am going to take this opportunity to TOOT THE ILLINI HORN again. 2 games to go and they will have cleaned the table. I can't wait for the tourney !

I will be blogging the Illini's run at the championship. Here is a bit of history on the NCAA brackets. Get your pencils ready!