The guy's a winner. (A winner who closed his thank-you address to the Staples Center fans before the final regular-season game by saying "Sexual Chocolate!")

In Cassell's rookie year the Houston Rockets won the first major professional championship in the city's history. The next year, they won the second.

In 2000, Cassell was in Milwaukee when the Bucks went to the conference finals for the first time in 14 years.

In 2004, his first year in Minnesota, the Timberwolves made it out of the first round - and all the way to the conference finals - for the first time in franchise history.

And now he has guided the Clippers to the second round for the first time since the franchise came to California in 1978.

Cassell arrives, sets up shop, and the team gets better. It keeps happening.

"Ain't that something?" Cassell said.

Here's his five-minute explanation, while standing in the middle of the Clipper locker room after the Clips eliminated the Denver Nuggets Monday night.

"One thing about me, I need five guys that's willing to give it up, man. To every night take that court and fight hard. If you do that man, I swear, I can't predict the future, but I can tell you one thing: we're going to win some basketball games. We're going to win more than you won last year.

"People don't realize, when I went to Milwaukee, Ray Allen was a good player. I made him an all-star. I'm not saying I did it all by myself, but I had a big part in him and Glen Robinson becoming all-stars when I was there. I went to Minnesota, Kevin Garnett was not mentioned for the MVP. He was first team, but was he mentioned for MVP candidate? I make him the MVP. He will make me a second-team all-NBA player and an all-star, but I had a whole lot to do - Sprewell and myself - with his development in becoming an MVP. Know what I'm saying?"

What does it take to draw it out of these guys?

"Push 'em. Push 'em Elton Brand's an example. I said, 'Elton, if you want to be a top 10 power forward, you've got to be able to hit the 15-foot jumper. Everything else you do is cool, you've got to take your jump shot. Because people only play you inside.' Now he took his game out 15 feet, I said, 'You make six jumpers, that's 12 points. You get 10 points inside, 22. Free throws, now you've got 26.' It's simple. And you shoot uncontested jump shots, because in the pick-and-roll, his guy double-teams me.

"Nick Van Exel's my best friend. He said, 'Boy you've got a chance to take that team somewhere that they never in their wildest desire thought they could reach. He said, 'Man, you're what the doctor ordered for those guys.' A guy who won't put up with some (stuff), a guy who won't let us feel sorry. I'm not going to. No, [bleep] that. You know what I'm saying? We walk into an arena, we're not going to walk into an arena and say, 'Okay, we're going to play for 44 minutes and lose in the last four minutes.' [Bleep] that. You walk into an arena, we say, 'We're going to beat these [bleeps].' Cause there's nothing like beating somebody on their court. Makes the plane ride better, know what I'm saying? That's all it's about, man. We're going to represent well here. But on the road? That's where your pride factor is.

" Who would have thought that this team would advance in the playoffs? Don't give me the credit for it. I'm just going what I've been doing. I'm just doing what I've been doing my whole [bleeping] career. Elton Brand. Corey Maggette was playing all-star basketball until he [bleeped] is foot up. Cuttino Mobley. When Corey got hurt, I had to become the second scorer. Now I can sit up here and play 24 minutes and see the development of Shaun. I'm well rested. So I know I've got to play big from here on out, or it won't be successful. I'm cool. It's all about winning for me. I've done scored points, I've done had assists. It's all about winning for me. Because I want to coach in this league.

"I look at Avery Johnson, what he accomplished, and I want to be that same kind of coach. Here's the job. Do your job. If you can't do your job, somebody else got to come do it.
We ain't throwing you away. But for a minute or two - or three or four - somebody else'll step in and do it.

"I tell them, do what you do. Everybody on this team. Do what you do."

Right now at Blazers Edge, Vince Carter's Nike ode to dunking is handily beating Kevin Garnett's pity party adidas ad. You can vote on the matchup by clicking here.

Meanwhile, at Blog-a-Bull, Michael Jordan's tiny friends are whipping the hell out of LeBron's family. Help King James out (though it's not likely much good) by clicking here.

Voting will end sometime this week. When? It's a surprise. That means you should vote now!

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)

Call me crazy, but I had absolutely no desire to see four Pistons playing at once in the All Star Game.  This has nothing to do with my thoughts on whether they deserved the spot; it was simply boring.  If I wanted to watch "Pistons basketball" I would watch a DET game.  Do people really want to watch Rip running off staggered screens?  And was anyone really surprised that four Pistons plus Pierce outplayed the West?  Hell, four Raptors plus Pierce would likely beat the West, too.  Virtually any NBA team playing team basketball would beat an All-Star team featuring guys trying lobs from half court.  And yeah, I would feel the same way about four Spurs.  I know how the Spurs play.  I don't know how Manu would play with Nash, Marion, Dirk and Brand.  That's what I would want to see.

My favorite part of the latest Isiah trade isn't that the Knicks will be paying $60+ million a year (including luxury tax) for Marbury and Francis.  It's not that these two players are incompatible due to both of them being undersized for a shooting guard (not that they play much defense anyway).  Nor is it that the combination will drive the lying, sniveling Larry Brown to a premature demise.  The best part about this deal is that multiple media outlets are reporting that Isiah is stockpiling assets in order to go after Garnett in the summer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  I can see only one high-quality asset the Knicks have that MIN could possibly want.  And that's Channing Frye.  They have don't have any premium draft picks over the next two years.  Meanwhile a team like CHI could offer some combination of Deng, Gordon, Duhon, Nocioni, Hinrich and Chandler plus multiple premium first round picks.

I didn't get to watch the SA-SEA game because the NBA League Pass channel was blacked out and I didn't notice until the game was already over.  I'm beginning to see the early signs of Spurs withdrawal.

Here are my quick midseason player reviews; based on minutes of careful consideration and preseason expectations.

Coach Pop, B

Clearly trying to establish a rotation ASAP but stuck with Finley in the starting lineup way too long.  Has successfully kept Manu's minutes down but needs to do the same for Timmeh; props for loosening the reins on Parker.

Mike Budenholzer, A+

I just like saying his name.  Boo-din-hol-zer.

Sean Marks, B+

He's played well when given the opportunity and helped spawn a new catch phrase:  AND SEAN MARKS FINISHES THE JOB!!!

Beno Udrih, B

Yeah, Van Exel is a better ball-handler, but that's the end of the list in my book.

Fabricio Oberto, C+

He looks less lost every time he plays and always brings the effort.

Brent Barry, D

40.3% from the field and 33.7% from 3 isn't good enough for a guy that's getting $5 million a year to shoot the ball.

Robert Horry, NA

The regular season?  We're talking about the regular season?

Nick Van Exel, D

Why do I have the feeling that Spurs fans will blame a key playoff loss on his poor shot selection and total inability to guard anyone with legs?

Nazr Mohammed, B-

I'm seeing improvement, but he needs to up his blocks and cut down on turnovers and the ubiquitous mental errors.

Rasho Nesterovic, B

As solid as ever, but he needs to cut down on his ubiquitous lack of athleticism.

Michael Finley, D-

How bad has Finley played?  The lineup of TP/BB/MF/TD/RS has outscored its opponents by a whopping 13 points in 286 minutes.  That amounts to 2.2 points per game.  For a team with a 6.5 point differential.

The Sickness, B-

Swap Manu for Finley in the above lineup and you have a squad that has outscored its opponents  by 113 points in 335 minutes; 16.2 points per game.  Certainly not the same guy we saw in the playoffs, but, well, this isn't the playoffs.  His regular season numbers from last year are similar and his grade would be higher if not for the injuries.

Bruce Bowen, A-

He's added to his offensive game without adding FGA, but I'll be damned if he hasn't lost a quarter-step on defense.  Yeah, I said it.

Tim Duncan, B

Lowest, PPG, FG% and BPG of his career.  59% of his FGA are outside of the lane which is higher than Parker and Ginobili.  Still an incredible defensive anchor but, like last year, not capable of offensively carrying this team to a title.  His plantar fascia cost him a half-grade or so.

Tony Parker, A

Better shot selection this year and maybe the best guard finisher in the NBA (his eFG% inside is 71.1% compared to 55.3% for Wade, 52.3% for Bryant and 63.7% for LeBron).  Still has the undeniable Achilles heel to his game that will be exploited without mercy during the playoffs.

The Seattle Supersonics made news last night by trading Vladimir Radmanovic to the Los Angeles Clippers for PF Chris Wilcox in a move that didn’t stay in the headlines long. First the move was overshadowed by a piss-poor effort against the Milwaukee Bucks. Secondly that trade became secondary news to rumors that the Orlando Magic were on the verge of acquiring former number two overall pick Darko Milicic and possibly trading away guard Steve Francis.

With all these rumors running rampant and the trade deadline just over a week away it is clear that trade season is fully upon us.

With yesterday’s move the Sonics front office proved many people wrong.

First there is the concept that this front office doesn’t make trades. Over the last several years the team has turned over virtually their entire roster. Only SF Rashard Lewis remains from the team Rick Sund inherited. Each season fans have called for a trade of Radmanovic only to hear that the front office was asking for too much in return. What they were asking for, reportedly was Wilcox.

This team is not afraid to pull the trigger, they are however exceedingly deliberate in their dealings both contract wise and in terms of trades. Sund frequently outlines how the seeds of a trade are often planted a year, or years in advance through dialogue with opposing General Managers. This is likely one of those scenarios as the Sonics were rumored to have had interest in Wilcox nearly since the day of his draft.

The second point proven today is probably more important to the team. By trading Radmanovic the team took a step to dispel the notion that players on one year qualifying deals have no value. Radmanovic, along with teammates Reggie Evans, and Flip Murray all accepted one year qualifying offers to make themselves unrestricted free agents at the end of this season. According to the league’s collective bargaining agreement all three can be traded, but only with their permission, and by granting permission the players will waive “Bird Rights” for the team that acquires them. These particular trade restrictions are new to the CBA this year and there some serious doubts whether any team would trade an asset of substance for a player under those circumstances. By getting any value at all for Radmanovic the team surprised me, and likely many other teams in the league. The hope is that this will set a precedent for Evans and Murray to be moved when GM’s assemble at next weeks all-star gathering.

So what exactly does this move mean for the team? Clippers Coach Mike Dunleavy pretty much summed up why this deal made sense for both teams in this morning’s LA Times.

“It’s an opportunity to add a player to our system who brings a totally different dimension,” Dunleavy said when describing Radmanovic. “We have a bunch of guys who are pretty good low-post players, but we were looking for a guy who could do it more from distance.”

Take that comment, turn it around to say “”We have a bunch of guys who could do it from a distance, but we were looking for a guy who is good in the low post.” And you have your answer as to why this is a good deal for both teams.

Wilcox plays above the rim and excels at running the floor. He is not the greatest team defender but does protect the basket with athleticism and shot blocking ability that have been lacking from this team at the power forward spot. For the last several years the team has focused on savy players such as Nick Collison who focus on team ball. The hope is that a blend of the two types of players will produce a product which is better than the pieces combined.

Somewhere between Keon Clark and Jermaine O’Neil the acquisition of Wilcox, if it pans out, changes the fundamental nature of this team by providing balance to a roster that has for several years been unbalanced. No longer will the team have to rely on a gimmicky philosophy of “spreading the floor with their big men”. Between Wilcox, Swift, Petro, and Collison they can at least make a basic attempt to play a more traditional game. No longer will they attempt to coach around their physical limitations in the frontcourt. They have enough physical ability to go around.

This is a great first move but the guard rotation remains critically undermanned as Flip Murray continues his Radmanovic-esque slide to complete uselessness. By moving Radmanovic the team cleared the path for Damien Wilkens to see additional minutes at the backup SF position. He should now play exclusively at the SG and and SF position. This leaves the team with a crippling shortage of ballhandlers and the need to make one more move for a backup PG. Marko Jaric of the Timberwolves and Earl Watson of the Nuggets are guards most closely linked to the Sonics in the rumor mill, but fans should keep in mind that this notoriously tight lipped front office likes to swing deals out of the blue. The Radmanovic for Wilcox trade had not appeared in a publication for nearly a year before it happened. I would expect the Sonics to grab a guard nobody is expecting without a peep being leaked to the press.