San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The much anticipated west semifinal is finally upon us!  Avery Johnson and company will make their way to the AT&T Center for the series opener tomorrow at high noon.  This matchup promises to be an extremely exciting one. 

Dallas of course comes into the second round after taking out Memphis in four straight.  The Spurs, on the other hand, had a little bit more trouble with Sacramento.  Given the regular season split of two games a piece this series could very well stretch to seven games.  There will be some key factors in this series that play into who is moving on to the next round and who is getting their fishing gear ready.  These are a couple of questions that might hold the answer as to who wins the series.

Who will set the tone in Game 1? 

Unfortunately the Spurs head into game 1 only 36 hours after playing the Kings in Sacramento.  Parker's right thigh contusion and other ailments on his right side will definitely be hurting him.   Duncan has looked solid over the the last few games and showed signs that the plantar fascilitis isn't bothering him as much as it had during the regular season.  Ginobili also looks to be back close to 100% again.  Still, the limited rest has many Spurs fans concerned.  The Spurs have played less than .500 basketball on back to backs this year.  The Mavs come in with plenty of time off, in fact maybe a little bit too much.  They haven't played a game since Monday so the key for Dallas will be how rusty they are and how quickly they can shake that off.  However, the pressure lies more squarely on San Antonio being that they must come out and protect their homecourt.  The Spurs will have to set the tone by matching Dallas' intensity on both ends of the floor to have a chance of beating the Mavs in game 1.

Whose bench will step up?

Both of these teams possess a lot of depth off the bench.  No doubt that the edge of the bench play will be pretty even on paper.  San Antonio has enjoyed solid production from Finley, Barry, and Horry thus far in the playoffs.   Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier gave Dallas a spark off the bench is the opening round, while Marquis Daniels has the ability to give the Mavs a solid contribution as well.  Pop made a change and started Robert Horry in games 5 and 6 of the first round against Sacramento, similar to switching out Ginobili with Brent Barry in the first round last year against Denver.  Nazr Mohammed or Rasho Nesterovic will probably slip back into the starting spot for the beginning of this series unless Pop feels that he would rather keep the change with Horry starting and Rasho giving energy off the bench.  Regardless, a big key for San Antonio is winning the rebounding battle, meaning Mohammed and Nesterovic will have to give Duncan as much help as possible on the glass inside.

Who will win the battle of the big men?

For Dallas on offense Dirk Nowitzki can create mismatch problems for the Spurs.  He is not a prototypical seven-footer in that hes not a low post player.  Duncan, who is not an excellent perimeter defender, will hurt the Spurs if hes sucked out of the post.  Duncan is a dominant rebounding force and he must remain inside to prevent the Mavs from crashing the offensive glass.  Its no secret that the team that wins the rebounding battle usually puts themself in a better position to win the game.  Pop, who used Bowen at times during the regular season to guard Nowitzki, will probably give him the assignment along with Robert Horry.  Keeping Duncan inside will force Nowitzki to take more jump shots and leave the Spurs a dominant rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Will the student become the teacher?

Avery Johnson will match wits with his former coach Gregg Popovich for the first time in playoff competition.  Johnson knows the Spurs better than any head coach in the league.  Using his knowledge to exploit the weaknesses of his former team will be crucial if the Mavs want to win the series.  The problem: the Spurs don't have a lot of weaknesses.  They are the most well-rounded ball club this side of Detroit.  Still, Avery has his guys playing great basketball right now and he will bring the defensive mentality that Pop instilled in him during his playing days in silver and black.   

Fans should be happy that they get an early preview of the Western Conference Finals.  San Antonio and Dallas might be the two best teams in the league.  The winner of this series is going to win the West and has a good chance of winning it all.  So get ready for some action-packed-hard-nosed-ratings-producing basketball!

Call me crazy, but I had absolutely no desire to see four Pistons playing at once in the All Star Game.  This has nothing to do with my thoughts on whether they deserved the spot; it was simply boring.  If I wanted to watch "Pistons basketball" I would watch a DET game.  Do people really want to watch Rip running off staggered screens?  And was anyone really surprised that four Pistons plus Pierce outplayed the West?  Hell, four Raptors plus Pierce would likely beat the West, too.  Virtually any NBA team playing team basketball would beat an All-Star team featuring guys trying lobs from half court.  And yeah, I would feel the same way about four Spurs.  I know how the Spurs play.  I don't know how Manu would play with Nash, Marion, Dirk and Brand.  That's what I would want to see.

My favorite part of the latest Isiah trade isn't that the Knicks will be paying $60+ million a year (including luxury tax) for Marbury and Francis.  It's not that these two players are incompatible due to both of them being undersized for a shooting guard (not that they play much defense anyway).  Nor is it that the combination will drive the lying, sniveling Larry Brown to a premature demise.  The best part about this deal is that multiple media outlets are reporting that Isiah is stockpiling assets in order to go after Garnett in the summer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  I can see only one high-quality asset the Knicks have that MIN could possibly want.  And that's Channing Frye.  They have don't have any premium draft picks over the next two years.  Meanwhile a team like CHI could offer some combination of Deng, Gordon, Duhon, Nocioni, Hinrich and Chandler plus multiple premium first round picks.

I didn't get to watch the SA-SEA game because the NBA League Pass channel was blacked out and I didn't notice until the game was already over.  I'm beginning to see the early signs of Spurs withdrawal.

Here are my quick midseason player reviews; based on minutes of careful consideration and preseason expectations.

Coach Pop, B

Clearly trying to establish a rotation ASAP but stuck with Finley in the starting lineup way too long.  Has successfully kept Manu's minutes down but needs to do the same for Timmeh; props for loosening the reins on Parker.

Mike Budenholzer, A+

I just like saying his name.  Boo-din-hol-zer.

Sean Marks, B+

He's played well when given the opportunity and helped spawn a new catch phrase:  AND SEAN MARKS FINISHES THE JOB!!!

Beno Udrih, B

Yeah, Van Exel is a better ball-handler, but that's the end of the list in my book.

Fabricio Oberto, C+

He looks less lost every time he plays and always brings the effort.

Brent Barry, D

40.3% from the field and 33.7% from 3 isn't good enough for a guy that's getting $5 million a year to shoot the ball.

Robert Horry, NA

The regular season?  We're talking about the regular season?

Nick Van Exel, D

Why do I have the feeling that Spurs fans will blame a key playoff loss on his poor shot selection and total inability to guard anyone with legs?

Nazr Mohammed, B-

I'm seeing improvement, but he needs to up his blocks and cut down on turnovers and the ubiquitous mental errors.

Rasho Nesterovic, B

As solid as ever, but he needs to cut down on his ubiquitous lack of athleticism.

Michael Finley, D-

How bad has Finley played?  The lineup of TP/BB/MF/TD/RS has outscored its opponents by a whopping 13 points in 286 minutes.  That amounts to 2.2 points per game.  For a team with a 6.5 point differential.

The Sickness, B-

Swap Manu for Finley in the above lineup and you have a squad that has outscored its opponents  by 113 points in 335 minutes; 16.2 points per game.  Certainly not the same guy we saw in the playoffs, but, well, this isn't the playoffs.  His regular season numbers from last year are similar and his grade would be higher if not for the injuries.

Bruce Bowen, A-

He's added to his offensive game without adding FGA, but I'll be damned if he hasn't lost a quarter-step on defense.  Yeah, I said it.

Tim Duncan, B

Lowest, PPG, FG% and BPG of his career.  59% of his FGA are outside of the lane which is higher than Parker and Ginobili.  Still an incredible defensive anchor but, like last year, not capable of offensively carrying this team to a title.  His plantar fascia cost him a half-grade or so.

Tony Parker, A

Better shot selection this year and maybe the best guard finisher in the NBA (his eFG% inside is 71.1% compared to 55.3% for Wade, 52.3% for Bryant and 63.7% for LeBron).  Still has the undeniable Achilles heel to his game that will be exploited without mercy during the playoffs.

The New York Knicks and free-agent center Jerome James agreed to a five-year deal, according to several media reports.

-foot-1 veteran who averaged 4.9 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.39 blocks per game in a career-high 80 starts for Seattle last season. He performed well in the first round of the playoffs for the SuperSonics, averaging 17.2 points and 9.4 rebounds in a series win over Sacramento.

For his career, James is averaging 4.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.20 blocks.

I mean, it’s been discussed to death, but I’m willing to kick the horse… How does someone go from 5 and 3 to 17 and 9 in like three days? I’m thinking maybe Inzaniah (aka the Knicks GM) thinks he’ll get that kind of production from James next year. I wouldn’t count on it… leading me to:

Fantasy Impact

James’ numbers are no where near Nazr Mohammed’s if you compare across 48 minutes. James would get about 14 and 8 in 48 minutes compared to Moham’s 18 and 14. Even if James doubles his PT, his season numbers will be 10 points and 6 rebounds. In fact, that’s about what I’d predict for him next year. I don’t think he’ll quite double his minutes, but I think the experience points gained in the playoffs will allow him to level up. (In the playoffs he was at about 11 points and 7 rebounds in 27 minutes)

He should be able to get his 1.4 rebounds again, though I would be hard pressed to say it’s going to be much higher; even in the playoffs with 27 minutes he only bumped it to 1.8, so I’m certainly not going to go higher than that.

Count it.

The Suns main weakness is their bench. The Suns 5 starters are averaging 37 minutes a game, because they don't have good options coming off the bench. If one of their starters hits the IR, the team will loose a good amount of production... Before the trade deadline is over, Bryan Colangelo might have to make that tough decision to sacrifice some of that youth for a better bench for a championship run, because the Suns are in a good position to win one this year.

Matt (Bulls Blog): "And are you comfortable with Sweetney at Center, or do you think this will only hurt his development. Minutes are good, but if he's playing them out of position I'm not sure how much that will lengthen his learning process."

Me: "He's been playing at center all year. I think I've mentioned it before, that it may be the reason he looked better last year than this. Right now at least he's getting major minutes, so I'm happy. I would have been happier if the Knicks got a 7 footer instead of 2 PFs - even a bad center would have forced the other team to use their PF to defend Sweetney."

Trade Min eFG PSA P/40 R/40
Post 22.5 0.52 1.10 15.4 11.1
Pre 17.9 0.53 1.21 18.1 11.2

Trade OR/40 FT/FG FGA/40 PF/40
Post 5.0 .22 12.1 6.5
Pre 4.2 .50 11.6 5.8

Typically i don't think it's right to post an entire entry this way, but in this case i'm making an exception, since this letter would be freely available to any Raptors fan who signed up to be an "insider" on the www.raptors.com website. I also looked for a link to this article somewhere online and wasn't able to get one, so here it is. If anyone at MLSE has a problem with this being posted, let me know and i will remove it.

"Now that the trade deadline has passed, I think it is important for all of you to understand the thinking behind the whole trade process and where we are as a team.

First of all, I want to note that the term "trade deadline" is misleading. The 24th of February deadline means that we can not make a trade until we are done with the season. It doesn't mean that we have to stop working on trades. A lot of the work that we did over the last several months has helped prepare us for possible trades during the off-season. We are continually working on ways to improve the team.
 
There are several basic trade rules that all fans should know. Few people take the time to learn these rules.  Fewer still choose to take these rules into account when they're writing or talking about potential trades. Basically, these rules are:

 

• The total salaries involved in a trade must be within 15% plus $100,000.00 of each other. Example: Team A trades a $10 million player to Team B. Team A can bring back up to $11.6 million in salaries. Therefore, you can not just trade a $5 million player for a draft pick.
• Under the current CBA, there is a luxury tax line that we estimate will be a little more than $60 million. 
• Currently, if a tax is in effect and you go over the line as a club, you end up suffering anywhere from a 100% to 300% penalty (depending on how far over the line you are).
• The vast majority of teams in the NBA are concerned about staying under the luxury tax line.
• There are many other items such as trade kickers and base-year compensation that can complicate the ability to make a trade.
• The following links do a good job of summarizing CBA rules:
• http://www.nba.com/news/cap_040713.html 
• http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.html

With the above in mind, you have to get two teams to agree that the trade is equal. This is not an easy accomplishment.  When you consider a trade, you have to factor in the age of the players, the length of their contracts, the position they play, their health and character, how they would fit in with your current roster, is their pay equal to their ability and how does it compare with the rest of the players on your team.

We are concerned with all of these and especially concerned with three other items:
1) Does the player fit into the long-term plans of building a championship team?
2) How does the player affect the development of our core group of young players?
3) Does his contract hurt or help our ability to develop our team for the future?
 
Some people have criticized us for not making a trade. We have consistently stated that we will not make a trade unless it is a good trade for the future of this team. We were very close to making two trades last week, but in each case there was one item that could not be resolved. We will not make a trade just to make a trade.

Speaking of trades, there is still and will always be critics of the Vince Carter trade. It is certainly true that neither Aaron or Eric Williams have been major contributors lately. Eric started very well when he first came to us, but he had a shooting slump and is now playing behind Jalen Rose (who is playing so well that there are few back-ups minutes at that position). Aaron is playing behind Rafael and Donyell Marshall. Donyell is playing very well and Rafael is developing and needs minutes to do so.  I still believe that they are both valuable players and will help our basketball team in the future. The financial flexibility this deals gives us is huge, but won't be fully realized until after the 2006-2007 season.

The two first-round picks are unknowns, but they should fall somewhere in the middle of the first round and they will be valuable as future roster players or assets to help make a trade. We won't know their value for years to come. Right now, we do know one thing - we were 8-16 with Vince, and are 16-17 without Vince. The other thing that is important to remember is that though Vince is a very talented player, he wasn't doing it for us and his trade value was only diminishing.

Rafael is another topic of much discussion. Rafael is working very hard and has shown to us what his potential is to play in this league. He is still a year or two away, but we have great confidence that he will produce in this league.  Keep in mind that centres take longer to adapt to the NBA. Take note of the following rookie statistics for recent starting centres: Jamaal Magloire (4.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 15 min), Samuel Dalembert (1.5 pts, 2 reb, 5 min), Eddy Curry (6.0 pts, 3.8 reb, 16 min), Nazr Mohammed (1.6 pts, 1.4 reb, 5 min). Rafael is at 3.2 pts, 3.5 reb in 12 minutes.

We need to have patience with Rafael. He has the talent, he has the work ethic and he has a great team attitude. A lot of what he is already accomplishing on the court are things that go unnoticed to the average fan. He sets great picks, he makes great passes, he is one of our best help defenders, and he keeps players from driving to the basket.  Centres develop more slowly than other players and are difficult to find.  We need to be patient with Rafael.

There is a lot to be excited about with our team. Rafer Alston has made great personal strides and is playing very good basketball. Mo Peterson has proven to be a good defender and a productive scorer. Jalen Rose was just named "Eastern Conference Player of the Week" and is playing great basketball for us. Chris Bosh is a rising star who has the work ethic, talent and character to be an all-star. Donyell Marshall continues to give us solid back-up minutes and has won many games for us. Rafael Araujo is developing and making steady progress. Matt Bonner is another rookie who has shown that he is a keeper. Milt Palacio has been playing steady basketball.

We have veterans in Lamond Murray, Eric Williams and Aaron Williams that are capable of big minutes at any time. Loren Woods showed a lot of promise early in the season and is working hard to improve.  Pape Sow has yet to get significant minutes, but his potential and character are worth serious future consideration.  Our coaches are learning about our players and developing our philosophy both on and off the court.

We still have at least seven weeks of basketball left and we're working hard to make the playoffs. The coaches have been improving our defense and it is beginning to show on the court. If we become more consistent at the defensive end, we have a legitimate chance.

We will continue to work hard to develop this team and win every game that we can. We can not veer from our main goal and that is to develop a team that plays hard, plays team ball, helps each other both on and off the court, gets involved in the community and does things the right way. We are making real progress towards this goal, but we still have a lot of work left. We are committed to doing things the right way.

I thank you for your continued support of the Raptors.  You have helped make my first year in Toronto enjoyable and rewarding.  With your support, we will be able to continue to pursue our goal of building a team capable of contending for a championship.

I hope to see you at our games this year,"

 

 

 

Rob Babcock
General Manager
Toronto Raptors

Much like our last GM, Babcock is reaching out to fans in order to have them understand that a success story is built over years of executing a plan. I appreciate this kind of message. It's better than a kick in the butt.

ŋς