HOOPLOG: Pau Gasol

Nothing fits forever

Wed, 08 Mar 2006 21:49:48 -0800

It would seem that last night’s infernal burst of Gilbertology might truly need no comment from ours truly. As in, we live in heaven, he lives alone, our souls are intertwined and the moment need not be soiled by explanation. The more and more I gazed upon that fascinating still—one as destined for iconic status as Tiger with the fist pump or Yao’s scream of antiquity—the more brutally apparent it becomes to me that Arenas, far from being an oddball, is the living, breathing god of my favorite kind of NBA player: the kind you watch, instead of just view. What Iverson, Kobe, Nash, and a handful of others I go out of my way to see play have in common is this ability to not merely produce on any given night, but to casually redefine themselves through masterstrokes of basketball impressionism.

Let me put briefly put aside the strained fire and brimstone that guides this site long enough to admit, as I did last week, that this is by and large a league of consistency. Unlike baseball and football, where one can be violently up and down from one game to the next but still get recognized overall as a fantastic contributor, to be a credible contributor a guy’s got to come with steady output. Freaks and streaks can be profound, but no player’s a recognizable force (or definite failure) in this league until he can be counted on; to scrape the ridges of Mount Dunkmore, he’d better be guaranteed to account for a serious percentage of his team’s production, both in the box score and as a reliable force when the ball hits his hands. Until then, he will always get saddled with the p-word, no matter how impressive he is in spurts.

When you reach the rarified air of superlative hoops accomplishment, there are at least three kind of consistency. Most obviously, there are the rock-solid bequeathers, under-appreciated and often big men like Duncan, Brand, Bosh, Dirk, Jamison, Kidd, Ray Ray and Redd. These folks give it their all with frightening regularity, churning it out from the opening bell and expected to operate as if to a rhythmic tick. I want to stop short of saying that you can intuit them from looking at a box score, but by and large there is no dramatic arc to their in-game performances. Professional, workmanlike, whatever you want to call them, these are consummate anchors of an offense, the given you pencil in at most moments during the season’s onslaught.

In the next category, you find explosive players with a tendency toward predictable outcomes, who ebb and flow over the course of a game, occasionally make you doubt, and ultimately bring you right back to who you always knew they were. I’m talking about Garnett, Pierce, Wade, Vince, Billups, Bibby, Gasol, Melo, Richardson, Jefferson, Sheed, Marion, and Artest himself—unquestioned experts who sometimes lull, sometimes soar, but never have to redeem themselves and are constantly working within their own limits and images. This isn’t a knock on any of these fine, hurling turtles; merely to point out that if you turn on the television to see them play, you know what you’re getting and will be accordingly excited. Each game reinforces their , with ups and downs that end in a pointed reminder of yeah, that’s him.

Gilbert and his gang, as I will now aptly dub them, rest upon their own set of shaggy shoulders. To return to last week’s trope of half-assed existentialism, All-American and yet bleakly Continental, they are players constantly exceeding themselves, or at least engaging in what feels for all the world like a motherfucking statement game. It can LeBron or Amare exerting and expanding their dominance, Kirilenko or Gerald Wallace twisting up the parameters of a box score, Nash working his conductor-ly magic, or Kobe, Iverson or McGrady scoring not only at will, but as if it’s unnatural for them to miss—or even repeat themselves out on the floor. Arenas is a must-see, not only because he’s likely to put on a show, but for what each and every game can do to your sense of him as a player and personality. If Wade proves with each big game that he’s still Wade, still proud, then Gilbert does it up in a way that’s not only unpredictable; with each of these self-transcending events, he also manages to seem unlikely all anew. As does Kobe, Bron, et al. In the crucible of the game, their legend is broken down and created anew, surprising you not only with this most recent installment but, in its reconstitution of the player’s most basic essence, shock you yet again they exist at all, that anything they do has ever happened in the glare of man’s senses.

This may seem like two-bit metaphysics for those of you not in tune with my lifelong education on this planet (or anyone merely taking issue with my late night sloppiness). But next time you find yourself up past bedtime watching one of these aforementioned idols, think about whether or not you feel you’re seeing them for the first time, whether you’re transfixed partly out of the fear that you’re witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Not just a good game from your favorite NBA player, or one of those “instant classics” this blog will reference two years from now; I mean one of those performances where, in some ways, you feel like you’re discovering the sport again for the very first time.

Fantasy Basketblog Midseason Awards

Wed, 15 Feb 2006 09:35:33 -0800

What, you thought I’d let DM give out the midseason awards? As if …

Stud of the Year : To the best-performing first-round pick.
Shawn Marion, PHO
And it really isn’t even close. With Amare sidelined, Marion has been forced to pick up his game, and boy, has he ever. His FG% is up to a remarkable 51%, and he’s a legitimate 7-category player. He’s solved his struggles at the line, going from 68% in December to 86% in January. It’s at the point where, if he keeps it up, Marion could be considered for the #1 overall pick next year. Runner-up: LeBron James.

Supporting Stud of the Year : To the best-performing second- or third-round pick.
Rashard Lewis, SEA
Lewis has been the prototypical supporting stud this year. He’s a huge asset in two categories (threes and points), and doesn’t really hurt you anywhere. I’ve been very critical of Lewis in the past because he doesn’t rebound enough to be a good forward, nor does he get many assists, but at the end of the day, he does enough of everything else to give him supporting stud of the year. Runner-up: Chauncey Billups.

Breakout Player of the Year
David West, NOK
Despite the fact that I hate him for what he did to my Wizards on Monday night, West is undoubtedly the breakout player of the year. His per-minute averages haven’t changed all that much, other than points, and he’s a perfect example of why we preach minutes above all else here at FBB. Still, can he maintain those percentages in the long run? Runner-up: Mehmet Okur.

Breakdown Player of the Year : To the premier player who’s lost the most value between draft day and today.
Steve Francis, ORL
Listen, we’ve been through a lot with Steve Francis, starting with his “99.9%” guarantee to return to Maryland for his senior year. Then there was the draft debacle when he practically died on the spot when drafted by Vancouver. Then his clashes with folks in Houston. Then his clashes with Orlando when they traded his buddy Cuttino Mobley. Still, through it all, his numbers stayed OK. But now he’s complaining again, and his suspension earlier this year got him “last straw” status here at FBB. Now he’s basically admitting he’s not playing his best, because of trade rumors, and the last straw was … well, you know. You just can’t trust the Franchise anymore as a stud, and he should be avoided until at least the middle of the third round in fantasy drafts next year. Runner-up: Stephon Marbury.

Leaper of the Year : To the player who’s made the leap to stud status.
Pau Gasol, MEM
Admittedly, this has very little – if anything – to do with Gasol’s play. But when you draft him, you know you’re going to dominate the Beards category. Plus, he’s getting real live stud minutes now that the Hubie experiment is over in Memphis, and that’s allowed him to finally live up to the promise he showed his first two years in the league. The free throws are a worry, but it’s always good to have something to work on. Runner-up: Carmelo Anthony.

Junior Leaper of the Year : To the mid-round pick who’s made his way to supporting stud status.
Samuel Dalembert, PHI
All he needed was someone to believe in him. Now that he’s getting starter’s minutes, he’s turned into a legit 2nd-tier center. His blocks are absolutely incredible, but don’t overlook his respectable FT% for a center. Runner Up: Rasheed Wallace.

Center of Attention

Sun, 15 Jan 2006 19:41:34 -0800

Thought I’d throw up a special weekend column, since I’m not sure I’ll have one for tomorrow since it’s a holiday and all. Before we get into the situations to pay attention to, I thought we should check in on some of the centers who recently won starting jobs and were popular pick ups over the past couple weeks. I expressed skepticism about all of them for various reasons, and for the most part it looks like it was pretty well-founded.

Francisco Elson: 7.8/6.7/0.6, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 55% (31-of-56), 28.9 mpg in 9 starts

Ike Diogu: 9.4/4.5/0.9, 0.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 62% (28-of-45), 24.1 mpg in 8 starts

Eddie Griffin: 6.6/6.0/0.7, 0.4 steals, 2.6 blocks, 0.3 3s, 43% (24-of-56), 22.4 mpg in 9 starts

I know that centers are tough to come by in deep, two-center leagues, but there’s still just not a lot of value up there. Elson is the only one getting acceptable minutes, but even his 29 per game might be considered a disappointment considering that not just Marcus Camby, but also Kenyon Martin, has been out for the majority of those nine games. He’s doing about what I expected him to do – basically a Rasho Nesterovic impersonation – and while he’s not been an embarrassment, those who were hoping for 12 and 8 with close to 2 blocks per game just had unreasonable expectations. Diogu has proven to be a stud in FG%, but if he can’t be on the court enough to take even 6 shots per game, he won’t be able to help you all that much. He’s nowhere close to an asset in any other category. As for Griffin, have more typestrokes been unnecessarily wasted on a single player?

Three Situations to Pay Attention To
Los Angeles Lakers
After just writing about how much space has been wasted writing about Eddie Griffin, it seems pretty silly to follow that up by writing about Kwame Brown. As much as we want to call Griffin a disappointment and a tease, it doesn’t even begin to compare to Kwame. But there seems to be a recent shift in Kwame’s game and might be making him a more reliable – if one-dimensional – fantasy option. In his fifth season in the league, Kwame has shown an extremely limited offensive game. His touch around the basket hasn’t developed at all, and while his jumper looks decent at times, he’s never been able to hit it with any consistency. Phil Jackson seems to have realized that – and maybe Kwame has as well – and isn’t asking Kwame to score. Last night’s 18-point “breakout” game was the first time since Nov. 14 that Kwame attempted 10 shots in a game. He’s been recast as someone who’s main duty is to attack the boards, especially on the offensive end. Brown averaged 1.9 offensive boards per game in November, 2.5 per game in December, and is up to 3.3 per game so far in January. The fact that many of his shots are coming off these offensive rebounds is helping his FG%. In six games since re-entering the starting lineup, he’s shooting 54%. Here’s his overall line in those six starts:

8.8/8.2/1.0, 0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 54% (21-of-39)

It’s pretty comparable to most of those “hot” pickups listed above, but without that secondary category to help out in. Although Brown has no steals in those six games, that’s the one category he’s most likely to offer some help in. He averaged nearly a steal per game while seeing 30 mpg in 03-04, which is pretty decent for a big man. If he remains in the starting lineup he could average somewhere around 0.8 steals and blocks per game, which isn’t spectacular, but isn’t terrible. Expecting any consistency from Kwame is probably pretty foolish at this point. A game like last night’s is still the exception, not the rule. But if he can keep pounding the boards and converting some of those putbacks, he might be able to emerge as something better than just another Reggie Evans.

Indiana Pacers
Let’s take a look at Jeff Foster’s line so far in January:

7.3/9.4/0, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 61% (22-of-36)

Again, not too different from the lines of those Elson/Diogu/Griffin group. Foster is quite similar – and the exact opposite – of Kwame Brown. Like Brown, he seems to be a one-category helper who is pretty consistent in that one category, but doesn’t have much of a shot of helping out elsewhere. Unlike Kwame, Foster seems to be getting the most out of his talent while Brown is getting only a portion. Foster’s upside is extremely limited – he will not score, he will not get blocks. But if you want a boost in rebounds – and only rebounds – he is probably one of the best guys you can grab. I’m not at all a fan of one category specialists because they leave you with holes in too many other categories, but situations get dicey sometimes, especially at center. I thought I was in the perfect situation earlier this year with Yao Ming and Rasheed Wallace, with a very capable backup on the bench in Brendan Haywood. Then Yao went down and Haywood became completely ineffective right around the same time. I ended up dumping Haywood, because he just wasn’t worth using. Since I’m in a daily changes, cumulative roto league, I decided to simply take the beating at center and go way under my projected games limit rather than try my luck with the dregs available on the waiver wire. My strategy is to use quality games when you have them. Right now I have a lot of point guards playing well, so I’ll go over the projected pace there and make a trade from there at a later date, even if it means not getting the best return. But in weekly H2H leagues, this strategy doesn’t work. So guys like Foster might be the best option available. And if you’re strong in blocks thanks to non-centers like Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion or Paul Gasol, Foster can at least give you the boards you need from a center. He’s averaging 9.9 rpg in his last seven contests, and that’s in just 24.4 mpg. With Jermaine O’Neal iffy, he might see even more time. Foster’s no savior, but at least you know what you’ll be getting.

Dallas Mavericks
Did someone in your league pick up DeSagana Diop yesterday? It happened in my league, and I’ll admit I was about to make the move myself and was beaten to the punch by about five minutes. I’m not going to lose too much sleep over it, but man, I sure could have used that help in blocks. There’s no denying that Diop is a blocks machine – he’s second in the league blocks per minute, averaging 2.0 bpg in just over 17 minutes, which is rather ridiculous. But the big question is this – even with his ascent to the starting lineup, how much more playing time will Diop actually receive? In last night’s game he saw just 20 minutes, although it’s hard to read too much into that since the game was over early and Adrian Griffin was the only player in the game to play more than 30 minutes. One of the many problems with Diop early in his career was his total lack of conditioning, and while he’s gotten better, it’s hard for someone to start consistently playing more than he ever has and to do it at a high level. This is Diop’s fifth season in the league and he’s played more than 30 minutes in a game a grand total of two times. This is one of the same arguments I made against Al Jefferson even after he joined the starting lineup and he hasn’t broken the 30-minute mark at all in 8 starts. Avery Johnson hasn’t given up on Erick Dampier yet, and this could be one of those old-fashioned “motivation” benchings, although it might take more than that to motivate a guy who’s going to get paid $53 million over the next five seasons no matter what.

Some people want to think of Diop as a poor man’s Ben Wallace, but a homeless, penniless Ben Wallace might be more like it. Like Wallace, Diop can help out in steals; he averages 1.3 steals per 40 over his career, which isn’t bad at all for a center. Unfortunately, he also shares Big Ben’s inability to put the ball in the basket. While he’s shooting 45% this season, he’s a career 37% shooter. And it would be a miracle if he could ever get his FT% up to 50%. While he won’t shoot nearly enough in either category to hurt you too much, it’s still worth noting. The Mavs are an extremely deep team. They don’t need to have a center out there at all times, as they can get by with Dirk Nowitzki at the five for stretches. The Mavs need Diop to be at his most energetic whenever he’s out there, so it’s probably not in their best interests to have him out there for 32-35 mpg. Grab him, stash him, start him if you need him, but if there’s one lesson that his column should make you realize, it’s that finding serious help at center on the waiver wire is almost always more fantasy than reality.

Comet Gain
Chris Kaman – Wow. Just, wow. Not only a top center, but a dominant overall force the past couple weeks. Might not last when Elton Brand returns, but he’s looking more and more like a legit #1 center.

Samuel Dalembert – Like Kaman, not just a top center lately, but an absolutely dominant force. He’s not missing – including from the line – and he’s swatting away everything in sight (which unfortunately for the 76ers means many obvious goaltends). His 37 mpg so far in January is huge for a center.

Ben Wallace – The old Big Ben is back; 13.8 boards and 2.7 blocks so far in January. Now about that 29% from the free throw line in that span…

The Hold Steady
Rasheed Wallace – Has slowed down a bit, his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired from a C, but he’ll keep raining in those 3s and getting the blocks.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s staying healthy, he’s hitting his shots, and is more than respectable on the boards and in blocks. A steadying force in the middle.

Brad Miller – A couple of down games recently, but he’s still one of the top 30 or so fantasy players in the league.

The Fall
Shaquille O’Neal – You knew you were punting free throws; but 15/10 with just 1 block per game in January leaves a lot to be desired.

Brendan Haywood – Back in the starting lineup after a two-game absence, but still too inconsistent to be counted on.

Joel Przybilla – Nothing more than a blocks specialist now that Theo Ratliff is on a run of good health.

I’ll do my very best to answer any relevant big man questions in the comments here, so feel free to ask away on guys not mentioned (or mentioned) here.

Grizzlies roll to rout of Bulls

Fri, 23 Dec 2005 21:18:18 -0800

Mike Miller scored 27 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, and Pau Gasol added 19 points and 11 boards Friday night to lead the Memphis Grizzlies over the Chicago Bulls 95-77. Miller was 8-of-15 from the field, including 6-of-12 from 3-point range. Gasol shot 6-of-9 and added four blocks and five assists. Memphis held a double-digit for much of the game as Miller and Shane Battier made the Bulls pay for doubling-down on Gasol.

Miller, Gasol lifts Grizzlies over Bulls (AP)

Fri, 23 Dec 2005 21:18:13 -0800

Mike Miller scored 27 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, and Pau Gasol added 19 points and 11 boards Friday night to lead the Memphis Grizzlies over the Chicago Bulls 95-77. Miller was 8-of-15 from the field, including 6-of-12 from 3-point range. Gasol shot 6-of-9 and added four blocks and five assists. Memphis held a double-digit lead for much of the game as Miller and Shane Battier made the Bulls pay...

Gasol tip-in buoys Grizzlies, keeps Hawks winless

Sat, 12 Nov 2005 21:20:34 -0800

Pau Gasol's tip-in at the final buzzer lifted the Memphis Grizzlies to an 85-84 victory over the winless Atlanta Hawks on Saturday ...

Gasol off to big start for Griz

Mon, 07 Nov 2005 09:53:22 -0800

After three games of this NBA season, that's the preliminary result of a basketball-free summer as Pau Gasol has averaged 26.3 points, nine rebounds and four assists. No, three games do not a season make. Gasol knows that and he...

The Truth Is Out, Part 2

Tue, 01 Nov 2005 09:39:57 -0800

So BV did his draft recap and now it’s my turn. Like he said, we start 10 players (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UT, UT), with three bench spots, 12 teams. So it’s a pretty deep league, and it’s very competitive. Hard to slip sleepers past these guys. Guys like Zaza Pachulia, Marquis Daniels, Eddie Griffin, Mike James, etc. were all gone by the 9th round, for example. My strategy going in was to heed my rankings, take the best player available with most picks, not get too hung up on positions, and not to ignore percentages, which always seem to give me problems. Let’s see how I did.

1st Round (4th overall): Dirk Nowitzki, PF
I was hoping that Marion would fall to me, but he went #3. It’s hard to complain about Dirk, and if continues to trade in a few 3s for a few more blocks, I’ll take it. He’s 27, clearly in his prime, clearly the top option on a perennially high scoring team, and he set career highs in blocks, assists and points last year. I’m banking on a repeat. I was tempted to take Kobe, and even a little tempted to shock the world and take Kirilenko, but in the end Dirk was the obvious choice.

2nd Round (21st overall): Yao Ming, C
I told my dad the day before that draft that if Yao was there for me at 21 I would take him, and I stuck to my word. Even in his “disappointing” season last year he finished 17th on the player rater, and he seems bound to take a leap forward this year, if he can continue to improve his game and his minutes per game by 3 or 4, which is a distinct possibility. I certainly liked him more than Jermaine O’Neal, and I was thought about Vinsanity and Mike Bibby, but a dominant center in the second round without reaching was too good to pass up.

3rd Round (28th overall): Pau Gasol, PF
I deliberated a whole lot here. Gasol was the highest person left on my board, but I’ve drafted him the past two years and have been burned before, by a frustrating rotation and injuries. And did I really want to go with three big men with my first three picks, after I preach about PGs so much? In the end I decided to trust myself and go with Gasol. All three players so far are big men with very solid percentages and Gasol, like Ming, seems likely to increase his effectiveness and playing time as he enters his prime and will be the featured player on a thinned-out Memphis squad. His foot problems are a concern, but I went with him over Bosh, Joe Johnson and Rashard Lewis.

4th Round (45th overall): Kirk Hinrich, G
I was absolutely thrilled to get Captain Kirk near the end of the fourth round. He was my highest ranked player left and I desperately needed a top flight PG. The next four picks – Boozer, Camby, Redd, Parker – show what a drop-off there was. Kirk’s FG% is rather brutal, but I’m hoping those first three guys could help offset it.

5th Round (52nd overall): Cuttino Mobley, SG
The middle rounds are always the toughest, and my strategy was to not give in to hype and to instead draft players who I felt would be sure-thing, solid contributors all season. Mobley may have been a bit of a reach, but he has a history of playing 40 mpg and he could very well see that on a thin Clippers team. And you know he’ll be launching his share of 3s, as well. I was strongly considering Lamar Odom, but figured I had plenty of boards and could use a gunner.

6th Round (69th overall): Rasheed Wallace, FC
Another steady, unspectacular pick. Rasheed has a solid all-around game and the fact that he qualifies at center means that I don’t have to worry about depending on one of those “who the hell knows?” guys that ended up going in the next few rounds. His percentages are rather weak, and he might have some clashes with Flip Saunders, but his track record shows steady production and good health. I might very well regret not going with Rafer Alston or Donyell Marhsall at this spot.

7th Round (76th overall): Richard Hamilton, SG
The ultimate safe pick. I’m not a huge fan of Rip’s fantasy game, but in the 7th round it’s hard to argue. I often overlook points, and Rip is always a nice source. He’s another great free throw shooter, and even if he doesn’t match his 5 apg of last year, he should be a solid contributor (see a theme developing?) there. He’s another person who you can leave in the lineup and not worry about, and I think my first seven picks, while lacking in flashiness are extremely solid.

8th Round (93rd overall): Mark Jaric, G
Here’s where you can start going for riskier picks. Or, at least that’s what I’m saying in retrospect. I don’t love this pick, at all. I’m a huge fan of Jaric’s potential, but he’s always hurt and depending on him as my #2 PG has disaster written all over it. If he stays healthy, I’m rather confident this pick will be a steal, but that’s very iffy. His high assist rate might also drop since Minnesota runs its offense through KG.

9th Round (100th overall): Josh Childress, GF
On the other hand, I was thrilled to land Childress in the 9th round. He was actually the only player that I’ve hyped up this season that ended up on my team. He was almost a top 50 player in the second half of last season, and can help in just about every category. Tayshaun Prince went three rounds earlier and I think Childress will end up with the better numbers at the end of the year.

10th Round (117th overall): Eddie Jones, GF
BV hates this pick, but I stand by it. If he was able to finish 52nd on the rater last season when he averaged nearly five points less than he had the past few seasons, he looks to have a slight resurgence in Memphis where he will be looked to as one of the main options behind Gasol. He had a horrid preseason, but this is one of those cases where I’ll take the 10 years of stats over the few preseason games. If he turns out to be a total bust, it’s only a 10th rounder.

11th Round (124th overall): Brendan Haywood, C
OK, this was a pure homer pick, I admit. Brendan is my girlfriend’s favorite player and I figured by having him on my team, I just bought myself a good 40-50 extra hours of basketball watching this season, at least. And for a third center, he’s not so bad, and it’s always nice to have a player on your favorite team to root for. It was the 11th round – Juan Dixon, Lorenzen Wright and Charlie Villanueva were the next three picks – I feel fine about this. That said, it came down to him and Mike Dunleavy and if I wasn’t a Maryland grad who was a Wizards fan, we know who I would have picked. I hope this one doesn’t haunt me.

12th Round (141st overall): T.J. Ford, PG
This one really upset BV, who cried shenanigans since I have not spoken well of Ford at all here on FBB. But hey, player value is all relative – in the 12th round, with Hinrich and Jaric as my only two PGs, I feel this is a strong pick. I still think Mo Williams is just as good of a player, at least this season, and Ford is a major injury risk, but I needed the depth.

13th Round (148th overall): Mike Sweetney, PF
With my last pick I decided to go with someone with some decent upside but also someone I wouldn’t mind jettisoning early on. Each year the waiver wire offers a few players who emerge in the first few weeks of the season that turn out to be quite valuable and you have to be ready to pounce on them. With news that Sweetney will be coming off the bench initially, and knowing that Scott Skiles can be downright Sloan/Hubie Brown-ish when it comes to rotations, Sweetney might be packing his bags soon.

So there’s my team. I think that it’s pretty (here comes that word) solid top to bottom. My top four picks are all young and in their primes, and the rest of my squad is a good mix of established vets and young, but not necessarily green, players. I don’t have any one-category studs and instead am relying on a group effort to put me at the top of most categories. I’m admittedly thin at point guard, but you know that I’m always ready to rotate through the flavor of the week at that position.

Thoughts on who has the better squad, myself of BV???

Enjoy the first games of the season tonight. Go Dirk!

2005 Fantasy Tiers by Position: Power Forwards.

Thu, 06 Oct 2005 08:54:32 -0800

Taken early, a power forward can really help shape your draft. Taking a center-esque PF like Elton Brand in the first couple rounds means you can hold off on a center for a good while. Taking a PF that can step outside and knock down a three like Dirk Nowitzki early means you can wait a bit before taking a SG or SF, and concentrate on the scarcity positions.

Taken late, though, your options drop pretty dramatically. Power forwards don’t go terribly deep, mostly because anybody listed as a F/C is undoubtedly going to be played as a center. Luckily, there’s only one PF spot on your roster. Still, it’s nice to have a couple of options at every position, so try to grab two of these guys:

Tier One:
Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki

These guys should be off the board after four picks – maybe three. Garnett is up there with LeBron for the top player in the game, while Nowitzki might not qualify at center anymore, but still is an incredible value as a 7-category player.

Tier Two:
Elton Brand, Jermaine O’Neal, Chris Bosh.

These are your faux-centers. They block. They rebound. They score. If they qualified at center (as they all once did), they’d have incredible value. But they don’t. Still, with centers being at such a premium, guys who act like centers are pretty useful. It may be the difference between reaching for a guy like Zydraunas Ilgauskas in the 4th and being able to wait for someone like Nenad Krstic in the 7th or 8th.

Tier Three:
Dwight Howard, Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol.

Admittedly, Chris Bosh likely belongs in this group. But we here at FBB really like him this year. Also, Rasheed Wallace probably belongs with the Centers, but seriously, he’s not a center. We had to take a stand. Anyhow, these guys all could end up with top-25 value, but could also end up somewhere in the 40’s on the player rater at the end of the year. You can’t be terribly excited about any of them, but at some point they do become the best pick.

Tier Four:
Carlos Boozer, Kenyon Martin, Chris Webber, Zach Randolph

I’m not a huge fan of any of these guys. All of them are injury risks, all of them have question marks on the court, and a two of them (Randolph and Boozer) are really 3-category guys, and that’s it. Still, if they slip late enough and you can grab any of these guys in the 5th or 6th round, they could be great value.

Tier Five:
Antawn Jamison, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Tyson Chandler.

These are some small tiers, huh? But that’s just because this position is so thin and varied. Here are the guys that you know you can have on your team and they’ll produce as long as they stay healthy. They might not produce a ton, but they’ll at least have marginal value.

Tier Six:
Donyell Marshall, Drew Gooden, Al Jefferson, Kurt Thomas, Darius Songaila, Troy Murphy, PJ Brown.

This tier are guys who really have an outside chance of being really valuable, but could just as easily be terrible, but JUST good enough that you can’t drop them. Every position has this tier – with Small Forwards it was the third tier. Here, it’s the sixth. DM is a huge fan of Donyell Marshall and he wants him to be much higher, but too bad! I think Troy Murphy could just as easily be a Tier 4 or 5 player.

Tier Seven:
Nick Collison, Eddie Griffin, Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Vladimir Radmanovic, Udonis Haslem.

This tier could really be broken into high-risk high-reward guys (Kwame, Griffin) and low-but-solid value (Radmanovic, Smith). But we’re tired of all these three-person tiers. Given injuries, playing time, etc., all of these guys might end up with mid-round value, but some things are going to have to fall into place before that happens. Still, they’re all worth late-round flyers.

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up positional tiers, with Centers.

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Five

Thu, 29 Sep 2005 09:01:53 -0800

(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team A: Jamaal Magloire (J. Terry, R. Allen, P. Stojakovic, K. Garnett)
Team B: Rasheed Wallace (E. Okafor, R. Artest, S. O’Neal, L. James)
Team C: Corey Maggette (A. Iguodala, B. Davis, Y. Ming, D. Nowitzki)
Team D: Zack Randolph (M. Camby, C. Bosh, S. Marbury, S. Marion)
Team E: Cuttino Mobley (A. Miller, B. Wallace, J. O’Neal, T. McGrady)
Team F: Carlos Boozer (R. Jefferson, M. Ginobili, M. Bibby, A. Stoudamire)
Team G: Kenyon Martin (K. Hinrich, S. Francis, E. Brand, K. Bryant)
Team H: Rafer Alston (M. Redd, D. Howard, S. Nash, T. Duncan)
Team I: Rip Hamilton (R. Lewis, J. Johnson, J. Kidd, A. Kirilenko)
Team J: Tyson Chandler (Z. Ilgauskas, C. Billups, V. Carter, D. Wade)
Team K: Samuel Dalembert (L. Hughes, P. Gasol, P. Pierce, A. Iverson)
Team L: Bobby Simmons (J. Richardson, L. Odom, B. Miller , G. Arenas)

In the fifth round, for the first time since round two, we run into 12 players who are all in the same tier in our overall rankings (we’ll get to our overall rankings at some point in early October). This is the last round of the draft where you are drafting a player who will unquestionably be on a roster all year long. Starting in the sixth round, you’ll hear some names that at least have a chance of ending up on the waiver wires. But not here. Everyone here should be getting at least 30 mpg, and will make real contributions to your team.

Because everyone here was in a similar tier, the selections this round really took into account team needs more than player ability. If after five rounds, you’re lacking at either of the scarcity positions, you could be in serious trouble. And as we see here, only 2 teams are left without a center (Teams G and I). Only one has no PG, but they do have LeBron James, who will contribute to assists like a PG would. Put yourself in the position of the two teams with no center as yet. Particularly in leagues like this one where teams are required to start two centers, you’re going to have to either pass up greater talent to select a center in the next few rounds or stick a couple of bums in the starting lineup every day. Neither option is particularly appealing. This is where the “Best Player Available” strategy can handcuff you.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at Round 6, the last round we did for this mock draft. But before we do, anyone have any major disagreements with selections we’ve made?

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Four

Wed, 28 Sep 2005 09:43:18 -0800

(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team L: Jason Richardson (Lamar Odom, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)
Team K: Larry Hughes (Pau Gasol, Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team J: Zydraunas Ilgauskas (Chauncey Billups, Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team I: Rashard Lewis (Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team H: Michael Redd (Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team G: Kirk Hinrich (Steve Francis, Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team F: Richard Jefferson (Manu Ginobili, Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team E: Andre Miller (Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team D: Marcus Camby (Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team C: Andre Iguodala (Baron Davis, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Ron Artest, Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team A: Jason Terry (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)

In round four of our mock draft, we’re seeing basically an extension of round three. With only about one round left of “solid” players (more on that later in the week), your goal in the fourth has to be to start setting yourself up for the later rounds. You want to be worried about team needs, but at the same time, you want to be able to take the best player available (BPA). There’s nothing worse than really stretching for a guy this early just because your team is really lacking in a category so far. So what you’ll see happening in our mock draft is that teams are settling for someone who at least comes close to qualifying as a team need and a BPA.

The fourth round, perhaps more than any other, is where your draft preparation will really come into play. If you’ve ranked players about 50 or 60 deep, it will make your fourth round much earlier. All you have to do is take your draft sheet, identify the 4 or 5 highest-ranked players, and then choose the one among those who best serves your needs. Take, for example, Team H. The top available players there (according to our lists) were Redd, Hinrich, Jefferson, and Miller. We would have those guys ranked with Jefferson first, then Hinrich, followed by Redd and Miller. However, we felt like this team needed some scoring punch, as it’s possible that neither Dwight Howard nor Steve Nash will put up 16 ppg this year. The highest scoring player among our BPA’s was Michael Redd, so he was the choice there, despite the fact that we had ranked Jefferson and Hinrich ahead of him.

So, what teams do you think look the best so far?

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Three

Tue, 27 Sep 2005 09:06:30 -0800

(For rounds one and two, check the previous post)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team A: Ray Allen (Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)
Team B: Ron Artest (Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team C: Baron Davis (Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team D: Chris Bosh (Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team E: Ben Wallace (Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team F: Manu Ginobili (Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team G: Steve Francis (Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team H: Dwight Howard (Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team I: Joe Johnson (Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team J: Chauncey Billups (Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team K: Pau Gasol (Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team L: Lamar Odom (Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)

Round three of our mock draft is arguably the most important round. The first two rounds have put the top talent on your team. The third and fourth rounds will dictate how the rest of your draft will go. A team that is weak in a category after two rounds might be a coincidence. A team that is still weak in those categories after three rounds is a problem. Take, for example, the case of team J, who after three rounds has maybe 1.5 blocks per game to his name. He will need to reach for size at some point in the draft – maybe not in round four, but in the middle rounds he will certainly have to take someone whose strength is blocks, perhaps well before he should be drafted. You don’t want to be put in the position of having to consider drafting Adonal Foyle or Theo Ratliff. Making the right moves here will save you from that fate.

The other important thing to note is that in the third round, we see the end of the third tier of players. DM and I agreed that this drop happens right around where Steve Francis was drafted in our mock. The drop from him to Dwight Howard is pretty significant. While you can make arguments that maybe Joe Johnson or Lamar Odom belong in that third tier, everyone taken after Francis at least makes you hesitate before you pick them.

So after three rounds, which teams look best? I think Team A looks pretty strong, with three players who could have been first round picks last year, as well as the best overall player in the game. Team B certainly has a ton of upside, but after LeBron he took two major question marks. Teams picking in the second half of the first round certainly appear a lot weaker than the teams with earlier picks. The teams with the earlier picks not only got their pick of the top tiers, but also got two of the third tier players. This might even out over the next couple of rounds – we’ll see later this week. Tomorrow, the fourth round.

Carnival of the NBA #15

Fri, 02 Sep 2005 09:21:18 -0800

It's with a heavy heart that this 15th edition of the Carnival of the NBA comes to you. All our minds are on not the hoops world, but the Gulf Coast. It's the most horrible tragedy of my life by far, and I have to admit my eyes have been glued to CNN, not ESPN or NBA TV.

If you can, please donate. Help is needed in New Orleans, Slidell, Gulfport and Biloxi, and they will need it for a long time to come. Blood is needed, as well. And homes for the refugees, too. Here's a comprehensive list of charities - there's something out there for everyone.

Ron at Hornets247 puts everything in perspective. Basketball hardly seems important right now. The fact that no one has heard from PJ Brown is very distressing - we all hope and pray he and his family are well, as we do about the hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coasters, even if the images on CNN tell us otherwise.

With our hearts and minds on the victims of the disaster, here are the hoops links for this edition of the Carnival:

Henry at True Hoop has been blogging up a storm, per usual. He tackles the issue of publishing athlete-smoking-dope rumors on the internet, continues to discuss the Sebastian Telfair bio and grins at a Mighty Mouse quote about Pau Gasol (it's a must-read if you haven't seen).

Kurt at Lakers-blog Forum Blue and Gold thinks Jerry Colangelo is moving Team USA in the right direction by looking towards Kobe to join the squad. Kurt also attacks the notion that last year's team lacked fundamentals, pointing instead at the lack of proper scouting, the lack of understanding for the international game and the lack of a pure shooter.

The hilarious NBA Source looks at the funnier things in the NBA, including redhead players, Sir Charles's philosophy and Bob Marley's tattoos. There's also a second edition, which tackles Rasheed's bald spot, the Brian Cardinal Phenomenon and some laugh-out-loud quotes from Shaq.

Dave at The City - a Warriors blog - completes his end-of-season review by looking closely at Baron Davis and Derek Fisher. It's determined that if Todd Fuller were a point guard, he'd be about 20 percent of Baron.

The SportsBiz Blog looks at the cultural hurdles Adidas and Reebok will have to overcome to make their recent merger, citing their substantially different corporate cultures.

Todd, who runs Orlando-blog BELIEVING IN MAGIC, posts on why the Magic may very well be the least improved team in the league. Hard to argue with that, though I think the Warriors and Supersonics could compete for that title.

Nels at Give Me the Rock looks at the effect of Michael Finley on the Spurs and on fantasy basketball teams.

The readers of the imitable Celtics Blog compare and contrast two of Boston's funnier characters: Manny and Ricky.

Matt at Bulls Blog - the guy who started this whole Carnival thing - says next summer is the moment of truth for the franchise.

SuperSonicSoul - king of the brief post titles - has already granted new Sonic Mikki Moore a nickname and questions a "technological breakthrough" by the franchise that resembles Lil' Penny.

RaptorBlog contemplates the play-by-play guy's dark side.

Ryan at the aptly-named Ryan's Ramblings shakes his head at Earl Watson's decision to go to Denver.

When Dan Rosenbaum posts, everyone notices. His recent post on how high the bar is in terms of really grasping the statistics of basketball.

Celtics 17 addresses recent bad press surrounding Danny Ainge, both locally and nationally.

Runnin' With The Bulls likes the solid financial ground the Chicago franchise is building itself on.

Cavalier Attitude says Luke Jackson has a role on Cleveland's squad this year, despite getting the Darko treatment last season.

Motoring Pistons manages to wish Finley and the Spurs turmoil and conclude the Clippers have a superior line-up to the Lakers, all in one post.

Pacer Nation looks at possible trade scenarios to get under the cap.

A couple weeks ago, Crazy from the Heat compared recent Miami addition Gerald Fitch to recent tradee Andre Emmett.

Father Knickerbocker trolls around the NY Web and finds some entertaining musings from fans of variable knowledge bases.

Solid Gold questions the notion that George Karl's 2005 Nuggets are ready to compete with the elite of the 2006 Western Conference.

If it's a look of the best tantrum throwers in all of sports you want, 120 Proof Ball has you covered.

easyMarksman, a fantasy blog, discusses the player's that upped their fantasy value the most as the season ended. Vince Carter is prominently involved.

Despite Yao's Houston extension, Lakers blog Show Time is still looking forward to 2007, when Dirk, Rashard and The Truth and Vinsanity are all on the market.

Rising Suns is disappointed about Finley-to-the-Spurs, to say the least. Spur of the Moment, on the other hand, wonders about Fin's defense.

Visit these blogs, bookmark them and feel free to leave comments and read other posts! There's a ton of great hoops writers out there not getting paid by ESPN or SI or CBSSportsline. Support 'em!

And please give what you can to help preserve and rebuild lives.

Offseason Overview: Memphis Grizzlies

Wed, 31 Aug 2005 09:33:10 -0800

Lots of names, but not a lot of fantasy help. So it’s been in Memphis for the past few years, and it doesn’t seem like things will be much different this year. While the cast has changed, the story remains the same, with very few players that you can plug into your lineup on a consistent basis. That said, let’s see if we can find a few gems:

The stud: Pau Gasol, F
After bursting onto the fantasy scene as a rookie, Gasol has spent the last three years disappointing his owners by failing to live up to the statistical standards he set for himself in his first season. Sure, the problem is the minutes, not the player, but nonetheless you have to assume that he won’t hit 2 blocks or 8 boards until the strategy changes. He’s going to be a nice pick around the 4th round, but no sooner.

The support: Damon Stoudamire, PG
OK, I’ll admit, this is pretty much a total guess. Between Stoudamire and Bobby Jackson, it’s hard to say for sure that Stoudamire will get enough minutes to really be a worthwhile fantasy player. Nonetheless, he hits a lot of three pointers, so he will certainly find his way onto plenty of fantasy teams this year as a second PG.

The supporting support: Mike Miller, G/F
Players like Mike Miller can be extremely frustrating to own, but you’re not going to find them on the waiver wire too often. Sure he won’t help much in boards, assists, or defensive categories, but he shot over 50% last year and managed 1.8 3’s per game.

The sleeper: Shane Battier, SF
Battier isn’t really a sleeper, as I don’t expect him to blow up this year, or even really improve on his numbers at all. But I think that a lot of FBB players overlook Battier simply because he doesn’t excel in any one category. But he averages around 10 ppg, 6 boards, a block, a steal, and a three, with good percentages. He won’t hurt you anywhere – and that’s more than you can say for a lot of players on fantasy rosters.

The slacker – Eddie Jones, SG
The end may be nigh for Eddie Jones as a viable fantasy option. Last year, he was in pretty much the perfect situation for himself – as a spot-up third option behind Shaq and Dwayne Wade. But his scoring dropped by 5 points, and he didn’t really look all that great. Now he’s in a crowded Memphis backcourt, and I can’t see him getting anywhere near the 35.5 mpg he got last year. Look for Jones to be bouncing on and off the waiver wire all year long.

Griz could deal Gasol?

Tue, 07 Jun 2005 09:40:42 -0800

Recent reports that the Griz are willing to part with Pau Gasol were overblown. The team still is committed to building around the Spaniard, barring a deal for a proven superstar such as Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett. Gasol, despite...