Read more about it and other Lakers insights at Lakerhead.com

http://lakerhead.com/2009/01/04/lakers-become-the-best-team-in-the-nba/

I read all four and I suggest you do the same, especially if you're like me and thirsting for more NBA content. I'm not just saying this to set the stage for when the Detroit edition appears — there are a lot of really talented writers out producing quality coverage for blogs, and it's always nice to see when the national media puts them in lights.

Right now at Blazers Edge, Vince Carter's Nike ode to dunking is handily beating Kevin Garnett's pity party adidas ad. You can vote on the matchup by clicking here.

Meanwhile, at Blog-a-Bull, Michael Jordan's tiny friends are whipping the hell out of LeBron's family. Help King James out (though it's not likely much good) by clicking here.

Voting will end sometime this week. When? It's a surprise. That means you should vote now!

CHRIS WILCOX NAMED WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

SEATTLE – The NBA announced today that Sonics forward Chris Wilcox has been named Western Conference Player of the Week for games played Monday, April 3 through Sunday, April 9. Wilcox averaged 23.0 points and 15.3 rebounds while shooting 75.0 percent (27-of-36) from the field during the week to help the Sonics extend their winning streak to a season-long four games. The league honor is the first of Wilcox’s career and the first for a Sonics player this season.

Wilcox began the week by posting 26 points and a career-high 24 rebounds in a 104-87 win over Houston on April 4, becoming the first Sonics player to post a 20-point/20-rebound game since Shawn Kemp did so on Nov. 15, 1995. Wilcox’s 24 rebounds were also the most by a Sonics player since Jack Sikma grabbed 25 boards on Feb. 10, 1983. Wilcox also dished out a career-best six assists at Portland last Friday, April 7, and has recorded double-doubles in scoring and rebounding in four consecutive games.

After averaging 4.5 points and 3.6 rebounds in 48 games with the Clippers this season, Wilcox has posted 15.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game since joining the Sonics on Feb. 23.

The New York Knicks’ Jamal Crawford was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.25 steals per game. He hit two game-winning jumpers to lead the Knicks to a 3-1 record during the week. Crawford grew up in Seattle and was a prep basketball star at Rainier Beach High School

Other nominees for Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week were Cleveland’s LeBron James, Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki, New Jersey’s Jason Kidd, Orlando’s Dwight Howard, Sacramento’s Mike Bibby and Seattle’s Ray Allen.

The Seattle Sonics & Storm organization manages the Puget Sound region’s professional basketball franchises – the NBA’s Seattle SuperSonics and the WNBA’s Seattle Storm. The organization oversees all sales, marketing, finance, public relations and basketball operations for the teams. The Basketball Club of Seattle LLC owns both teams.

Here is my mock draft, usually when a player does well in the tournament, their stock goes up in the draft. Teams are gonna pass on Sheldon Williams, due to poor tournament performance. He’ll be the next Elton Brand and will help that Hornets go to the playoffs next year. I put Reddick with the Jazz, looking at the Jazz's draft history they pick over hyped white dudes, who can’t play in the NBA. Hopefully the Sonics get Brandon Roy, he and Ridnouer will form the best back court in the league circa 2110. I only did college players that I have seen play and one Eurotrash dude that Espn ranked high. I guessed the teams that will end up with the highest lottery picks.

 1. Bulls from knicks- joekim Noah.  Had a good tournment, he could really develop 

2. Portland Trailblazers- Adam Morrison. Keep him local.  

3. Charlotte Bobcats-  Tyrus Thomas

4. Atlanta Hawks-Lemarcus Aldridge

5. Toronto Raptors-  Randy foye

6. Orlando Magic- Josh Mcroberts

7. Golden state- Andrea Bargani. The bay area better have ample olive oil and garlic.

8. Boston Celtics- Dee Brown

9. Timerwolves- Rodney Carney

10. Supersonics- Brandon Roy

11. Rockets- Al Hortford

12. Bulls- Ronnie Brewer

13.Utah jazz- J.J reddick. Another white person playing basketball in Utah, I don’t understand.

14 Hornets- Sheldon Williams. Every team will regret passing on him

15. 76ers- Maurice Ager

16 Indiana- Jordan Farmar.  

17. Sacramento-leon powe

Rudy Gay was going pretty high but he will end up a second rounder, due to poor performance in the tournement    

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)

A few days ago I was wondering about John McCaw…
~
Scott Says:
March 5th, 2006 at 6:27 pm e
“BTW, what local millionare sold his hockey team while the NHL was in lockout?”

John McCaw?

Mr. Baker Says:
March 6th, 2006 at 8:41 am e
John McCaw?

Yes, that’s the guy.
Paging John McCaw’s wallet, paging John McCaw’s wallet…
~

So, what is in the news today?

Vancouver group has NBA hoop dream
Last updated Mar 9 2006 12:04 PM PST
. . .
Howard Kelsey says he speaks for a group, led by Vancouver Canuck owners Francesco Aquilini and John McCaw, that has a proposal to have an existing NBA franchise re-locate to B.C.
“We have what very few cities have, what you would call a plug and play – practice facilities are here right now, and they’re downtown, as opposed to Richmond where they were last time the team was here. You have a ready-to-go GM Place which is one of the best arenas in North America.
“As long as you’ve got a GM Place, and as long as you got eight or 9,000 fans it’s a no brainer,” said Kelsey.
Kelsey says the group is putting an official proposal together in hopes of securing a team – possibly the Portland Trailblazers
. . .
Read the rest of the story here.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, there’s John McCaw, he has some money, and wants an NBA team. Maybe he buys the Blazers and Allen buys the Sonics, maybe somebody else buys the Soncs… or maybe McCaw just buys the Sonics.
The situation is very fluid right now.

What a difference a day makes!

I’ve written before in this space about my irrational hatred for the Utah Jazz and last night was a splendid reward for me. The Sonics did to the Jazz what Crash did to Brokeback Mountain in the Oscar race last night. Newest Sonic Noel Felix had the loudest 2 point 1 rebound game I think I’ve ever witnessed. Earl “Bugs” Watson chipped in 10 pts, 7 dimes and 5 boards in the effort as well as some tiiight alley oops to Chris Wilcox, who is rapidly relegating Radmanovic to milk-carton status …

I can’t say enough about Wilcox’s ability to run the floor, set picks and play above the rim. After far too many years of watching countless worthless frontcourt players it’s about damn time the Supes started playing above the rim. I was sturck last night about how closely the Jazz are to Nate McMillan’s ideal team, low possession, highly efficient but with a plodding frontcourt. Utah simply had no answer for Seattle’s 7 footers … any of them, and when the Sonics can bring 7 ft Mikki Moore off the bench to counter Ostertag, I say if we give this team time to gel and retain Bob Hill going into next year they will surprise people. The attitude is not only different but the actual talent core they’re building from is much, MUCH better than it was earlier in the year.

Bacardi and Cola stat line o’ the night: 38 minutes, 12 pts, 13 rebs, 2 stls and 4 blocks. Niice

Did I mention I got a speeding ticket this morning? $91 …stay away from Shoreline boys and girls…

On that note, I want to say that I can’t think of a more perfect jersey for Flip to wear than #2. Think about it.

The honeymoon’s over between Paul Allen and Portland. For every poster who used to crow about Allen’s genius in hiring Bob Whitsett and holding him up as some paragon of NBA owner virtue, I suggest you read the following story and see just how ugly it can get.

Things didn't get a whole lot better last night, as the Red and Black fell to the Hornets 88-75 at the Rose Garden. Both Zach and Darius had good games, scoring 23 and 22 respectively, but no one else had much to offer. The Blazers shot a ludicrous 41.1% from the free throw line, which has to be the equivalent of closing your eyes and throwing the ball in the general direction of the basket. They also got out-rebounded 46 to 33. On the bright side, the Blazers did shoot a higher field goal percentage than the Hornets, so feel free to revel in the streets over that tidbit.

The hits keep coming tonight, as the Blazers take on newly acquired Brian Skinner's old employer, the Sacramento Kings. The line is Sacto -13.5, but the over/under I'm interested in is how many points will ex-Blazer Sergei Monia score tonight. I'm sure Bonzi can give him a few pointers regarding sticking it to your old team.

"This might be my last one. Thought I'd go out with a bang. This is it. I mean, let me be free. They need to trade me for a big man. This has gotta be my last game. I know the trading deadline is tomorrow and nothing against the fans of Portland, but I just want to be happy. Hopefully, things go right for me. I just want to start my career over."

The move also reunites Ruben with his old Cincinnati partner in crime Kenyon Martin. No word yet on whether or not Bob Huggins is sober enough to be brought on as an assistant coach, but Karl is definitely going to need someone around to dole out hush money to the scores of traumatized Denver residents whom Rube and K-Mart will undoubtedly leave in their wake.

So Denver gets some defense, Seattle gets a back-up PG with a hella long contract and a decrepit Byron Russell, and Portland gets a back-up PF/C and a little cap room, and one less Ruben Patterson. Wrap it up; I'll take it. So long Ruben, don't forget to register when you get to Colorado, you scum bag.

Update: It seems as if I spoke too soon. Rumor is the deal now has Brian Skinner coming to the Blazers from Sacto instead of Vitaly, in exchange for Sergei. Potepenko supposedly is off to the Kings, and the Blazers are still getting Lenard. I liked the first version a lot better. Skinner makes too damn much. This still hasn't been finalized, so who knows what it will look like when everything shakes out.

The Kings have acquired Vitaly Potapenko and Sergei Monia for Brian Skinner in a deadline-day trade, various sources are reporting.

As for Skindog, the first of the Philly Three to be peddled: We'll miss ya, dude. Not in a Bobby Jackson, Chris Webber way. Hell, not even in a Maurice Evans, Eddie House way. But we'll miss you. Your block on Marion in Albuquerque was the highlight of the 2005-06 preseason. Thank you.

Now, on the the new parts. Here is the only sentence I should have to post on Vitaly Potapenko to give you an idea of who he is: Seattle coach Bob Hill benched the Ukraine Train for being overweight and out of shape. Flashbacks, anyone?

That said, Pomme-Frites (yes, that is our first attempt at dubbing Vitaly) is damn near a 7-footer, so we have a tall guy not named Jamal Sampson we can actually stick in for Brad. (Skindog was 6'9 in heels.) VP is making $3 million this year, and will make $3.3 million next season. After that, the contract is over.

Now about this Sergei Monia fellow. You want to know how hard it is to find information on him? I'm not even sure his name is spelled "Sergei Monia." Sports Illustrated spells it "Sergei Monya," and HoopsHype calls him "Sergey Monya." He's a Russian rookie, seeing very limited in Portland. A profile on NBADraft.net said Sergei "hs a nice midrange jumper and is a solid 3pt shooter, but his best attribute is his team defense, he knows how to help teamates and he's a pretty good one on one defender too." The stats say differently, as Sergei's FG% is around 37% for the season. He has, however, been trapped on the bench of a cruddy Portland team.

No word on whether he and now-estranged Russian Blazer buddy Viktor Khryapa had a Franchise-Cuttino relationship that could lead to some issues.

I don't expect either newbie to make a major difference immediately - I mean, has Skinner been making a difference? Sergei is a bit younger than Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia and much more raw (it would seem), so I don't anticipate him affecting their PT any. Monia seems like a solid Petrie chip, though.

Pomme-Frites could get some minutes in relief of Brad, though he is actually allergic to the ball on offense. Some blocks and a decent rebound percentage when he's in is all we should hope for.

(he most disturbing part of all this is that if someone asked me which NBA player I most resemble, I'd probably have to say Sergei Monia. Except less Russian looking.)