Thursday . February 12 . 2009  

     

     

   


Oct
24
2005

Reading Preseason Box Scores

Read More: Antonio Daniels , Atlanta Hawks , Brevin Knight , Chris Paul , Chucky Atkins , Denver Nuggets , Gilbert Arenas , Jason Kidd , New Jersey Nets , New York Knicks , Quentin Richardson , Shaun Livingston , Toronto Raptors , Washington Wizards

So here at FBB HQ, we were discussing what to talk about this week, now that we’ve finished off ranking just about everything there is to be ranked. Here’s a quote from DM: “We could do some preseason stuff (as in DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO PRESEASON STATS).” To which I say: “really?”

Sure, the majority of preseason stats are of little to no value. Players aren’t getting the minutes they normally would, they’re not playing full speed in a lot of cases, and they’re often on the floor against future CBA-ers. But there’s still some important stuff going on. I mean, come on – it’s been like 4 months since we’ve had a box score to look at. So what should you be looking for when checking out the numbers? How 'bout this:

Rookie Projections
Before you roll your eyes, I’m not trying to tell you that what a rookie does in the preseason is what he’ll do ion the regular season. Because it’s not. But a lot of rookies will change their games when they enter the NBA. One thing to look for is any sort of unexpected stats from rookies. For example, Chris Paul grabbed ten rebounds last night against Denver. And two games before that, he pulled down seven against Atlanta. This is a guy who averaged 4.5 rpg last year in college – good, but not great - so it’s safe to say that those kind of numbers are a bit unexpected. All you have to do is look at Jason Kidd to know how much strong rebounding numbers can help a PG’s fantasy value.

Here’s another example. Last year with Connecticut, Charlie Villanueva took a total of twelve 3-pointers all year long – making six of them. Over the last five preseason games with Toronto, Villanueva has gone five for twelve from the arc. Where did this come from? Who knows, and who cares. The important thing is that if Villanueva keeps shooting the long ball, he’s going to have more value than many thought.

Position Battles
Here in Washington, we’ve got a nice little position battle between Chucky Atkins and Antonio Daniels, who are fighting to be the new backcourt mate of Gilbert Arenas. Last night in Houston, each got over 34 minutes, and Atkins way out-performed Daniels, as has been the case throughout most of the preseason. Should Atkins end up winning the battle and getting 30+ mpg for the Wiz, he’ll be worth a late round draft pick.

Similarly, there are battles to be won in Atlanta (three of them, really), New York (PT at center), and a number of other spots across the league.

Injury Watches
Nagging injuries in the preseason generally will turn into non-issues during the regular season. But sometimes, there’s truth to them. Shaun Livingston, for example, probably shouldn’t be drafted any more. Quentin Richardson should be sliding down the draft board. Brevin Knight’s elbow could be something to watch. It’s not a terrible idea to spend a late round pick on a guy who’s doing some injury fill-in work, and knowing who’s injured, obviously, is a good way to do that.

So as you can see, preseason games aren’t totally useless. If you know what to look for, there can be some useful information in them. I mean, it’s a basketball box score – it’s gotta be good for something.
Link


Originally from Fantasy Basketblog
ReBlogged by kevin on Oct 24, 2005 at 10:23 AM

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