It’s been about a month and a half since we checked in on this year’s rookies. There are two developments that will go on in the next few weeks that will have drastic effect on rookies. One is a negative: the vaunted “rookie wall” that threatens to hurt rookie numbers across the board. The actual effect of the rookie wall isn’t too clear, and it’s not definitely going to affect anyone in particular, but it’s something to think about. The other development is a positive: with a half a season under their belt, some rooks are going to start figuring out the game, force their way onto the court, and start putting up fantasy-starter-like numbers (see Raymond Felton as a perfect example). Anyhow, let’s go down the list:

Plug n’ Play

Andrew Bogut – Despite Joe Smith’s return to the court, Bogut is still a dependable second center in almost all formats. He doesn’t do anything particularly well other than shoot from the field (53%), but he does chip in enough points, boards, steals and blocks to be a fixture in your lineup.

Chris Paul – He’s the ROY. He’s getting consideration for the All-Star Game (which he shouldn’t, but that’s another story). Needless to say, he’s a great play and if you drafted him this year, odds are you got a steal. However, he’s also a classic candidate for the “rookie wall” effect, as he’s played major minutes all year, he’s small, and he’s charging all over the court at 100 mph every game.

Channing Frye – He’s in Plug n’ Play, but just barely. Less Antonio Davis means the potential for more minutes for Channing, but he’s just not earning them – his shooting is down since the new year and he’s still struggling to top 20 mpg. If he didn’t qualify at Center, he wouldn’t be here.

Charlie Villanueva – We’ve been hyping him since day one, and he’s starting to show some returns. Since the Rose trade, he’s put up 17/7.8 with 2.8 3’s and 1 block, starting numbers in any format. He’s a possible Donyell Marshall clone – and I mean that in a good way. But we’ll see how Antonio Davis cuts into his PT.

Raymond Felton – Felton is a brand new FBB favorite. He starting getting it together in January, and now in February he’s got 20/6.3/8 with 2 3’s and 2 steals. He’s also playing well alongside Brevin Knight, and while we don’t think he’ll maintain these numbers, he should put up at least 15/4/6 with a steal and a three.

Just Not There – Yet.

Sarunas Jasekivicius – I think it’s safe to leave Sarunas on the waiver wire at this point. We’ve waited all year to see him get starter’s minutes, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t gotten them. When Jamaal Tinsley went down with an injury (or eight), the minutes went to Anthony Johnson – not exactly a ringing endorsement for the ex-Terp. Still, we’ll keep him in this category.

Danny Granger – He’s very close to being a Plug n’ Play. In fact, I’m sure I’ll get a lot of flack for this. His last five games have been extremely encouraging, but let’s see him keep it up for another week or two.

Marvin Williams – I don’t think he’ll ever justify being drafted ahead of Chris Paul, but I’ve been impressed with Williams of late. He’s quite simply still learning to play the game. But his athleticism is unquestioned, his improvement has been steady, and he’ll be worth a late-round flyer next year. He’s no Darko.

Nate Robinson – If he can’t get minutes under Larry Brown with Stephon Marbury out, I don’t see any reason why he’ll get any sort of reliable minutes over the rest of the year. If he gets traded, though, there’s always a chance.

Nice Try - Maybe Next Year

Ike Diogu – Last month’s hot pickup is this month’s hot drop. He’s got promise, just not for this year.

Jarrett Jack – Listen – if you try and take minutes from our boy Steve Blake, you’re in for a rude awakening. Still, Jack has played very well and could be a nice fantasy player in the future.

Deron Williams – Milt Palacio? Really? Still probably worth a roster spot – if you’ve got room on your bench.

Luther Head – Last month’s hot pick … oh wait, I already used that line.

Salim Stoudamire – He’s not gonna get the minutes he needs to be productive, but he’s got Allan Houston-esque potential down the line.

Already Maxed Out

Jose Calderon – He’s a backup point guard on a poor NBA team. I don’t think there’s any reason to think he’ll be more than a complimentary piece this year, or even in later years.