I read all four and I suggest you do the same, especially if you're like me and thirsting for more NBA content. I'm not just saying this to set the stage for when the Detroit edition appears — there are a lot of really talented writers out producing quality coverage for blogs, and it's always nice to see when the national media puts them in lights.

The Bulls signed Ben Wallace (and acquired P.J. Brown and one year of his contract for Tyson Chandler's enormously long/overpriced deal)
The Hornets went insane and signed Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson, and traded for Tyson Chandler.
The Lakers signed Vlad Radmanovic.
The Clippers signed Tim Thomas.
The Hawks signed Speedy Claxton.

Like I said...a whole new NBA. And the free agent signing period hasn't even officially began.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The much anticipated west semifinal is finally upon us!  Avery Johnson and company will make their way to the AT&T Center for the series opener tomorrow at high noon.  This matchup promises to be an extremely exciting one. 

Dallas of course comes into the second round after taking out Memphis in four straight.  The Spurs, on the other hand, had a little bit more trouble with Sacramento.  Given the regular season split of two games a piece this series could very well stretch to seven games.  There will be some key factors in this series that play into who is moving on to the next round and who is getting their fishing gear ready.  These are a couple of questions that might hold the answer as to who wins the series.

Who will set the tone in Game 1? 

Unfortunately the Spurs head into game 1 only 36 hours after playing the Kings in Sacramento.  Parker's right thigh contusion and other ailments on his right side will definitely be hurting him.   Duncan has looked solid over the the last few games and showed signs that the plantar fascilitis isn't bothering him as much as it had during the regular season.  Ginobili also looks to be back close to 100% again.  Still, the limited rest has many Spurs fans concerned.  The Spurs have played less than .500 basketball on back to backs this year.  The Mavs come in with plenty of time off, in fact maybe a little bit too much.  They haven't played a game since Monday so the key for Dallas will be how rusty they are and how quickly they can shake that off.  However, the pressure lies more squarely on San Antonio being that they must come out and protect their homecourt.  The Spurs will have to set the tone by matching Dallas' intensity on both ends of the floor to have a chance of beating the Mavs in game 1.

Whose bench will step up?

Both of these teams possess a lot of depth off the bench.  No doubt that the edge of the bench play will be pretty even on paper.  San Antonio has enjoyed solid production from Finley, Barry, and Horry thus far in the playoffs.   Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier gave Dallas a spark off the bench is the opening round, while Marquis Daniels has the ability to give the Mavs a solid contribution as well.  Pop made a change and started Robert Horry in games 5 and 6 of the first round against Sacramento, similar to switching out Ginobili with Brent Barry in the first round last year against Denver.  Nazr Mohammed or Rasho Nesterovic will probably slip back into the starting spot for the beginning of this series unless Pop feels that he would rather keep the change with Horry starting and Rasho giving energy off the bench.  Regardless, a big key for San Antonio is winning the rebounding battle, meaning Mohammed and Nesterovic will have to give Duncan as much help as possible on the glass inside.

Who will win the battle of the big men?

For Dallas on offense Dirk Nowitzki can create mismatch problems for the Spurs.  He is not a prototypical seven-footer in that hes not a low post player.  Duncan, who is not an excellent perimeter defender, will hurt the Spurs if hes sucked out of the post.  Duncan is a dominant rebounding force and he must remain inside to prevent the Mavs from crashing the offensive glass.  Its no secret that the team that wins the rebounding battle usually puts themself in a better position to win the game.  Pop, who used Bowen at times during the regular season to guard Nowitzki, will probably give him the assignment along with Robert Horry.  Keeping Duncan inside will force Nowitzki to take more jump shots and leave the Spurs a dominant rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Will the student become the teacher?

Avery Johnson will match wits with his former coach Gregg Popovich for the first time in playoff competition.  Johnson knows the Spurs better than any head coach in the league.  Using his knowledge to exploit the weaknesses of his former team will be crucial if the Mavs want to win the series.  The problem: the Spurs don't have a lot of weaknesses.  They are the most well-rounded ball club this side of Detroit.  Still, Avery has his guys playing great basketball right now and he will bring the defensive mentality that Pop instilled in him during his playing days in silver and black.   

Fans should be happy that they get an early preview of the Western Conference Finals.  San Antonio and Dallas might be the two best teams in the league.  The winner of this series is going to win the West and has a good chance of winning it all.  So get ready for some action-packed-hard-nosed-ratings-producing basketball!

Latest Polling on New Arena

The numbers look bad, and if anything, they are heading further south.

Not to detract from tonight's game, but this isssue is looking more and more serious as time elapses.

It's pretty clear that any ballot initiatives regarding public financing of a new stadium for the Kings are facing a severe uphill battle.  In my opinion, the Kings are being hurt by four different issues - in no particular order:

• The Palms Casino.  If the Maloofs can build a casino, why can't they build a new arena?


• Pac Bell, err...AT&T Park.  A privately financed baseball stadium not 100 miles away.  If the Giants ownership group could get it done, why can't the Maloofs?


• The economy (and more specifically, gas prices). As much press as this "improved" economy gets, I'm not sure it's translating to your average Kings fan living in the Sacramento area.  Pretty much anything that says "more taxes" might as well have Osama bin Laden's endorsement as well.


• This would be the third arena for the Kings in their 20 or so years in the city.

I really think this arena argument needs to be sold as a combination public/private financing.  Although it's risky, if I were the Maloof's I'd attempt to educate the community a bit more on the pure business side of things - that their love of the Kings can't prevent them from staying competetive within the business aspect of owning an NBA team.  

The tough part is doing this without overtly threatening to leave.  If they look to be strongarming the community, I doubt they can get even a combo-financed arena.  

There's a great deal of nimbleness required during this process, which I think the Maloof's realize, as they continue to say all the right things. However, I hope the residents of the Sacramento area aren't deluding themselves thinking the Kings would not up and move if they continue to hit a brick wall regarding even the smallest bit of public financing.  

It would be a travesty, but it's certainly not an impossibility.

CHRIS WILCOX NAMED WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

SEATTLE – The NBA announced today that Sonics forward Chris Wilcox has been named Western Conference Player of the Week for games played Monday, April 3 through Sunday, April 9. Wilcox averaged 23.0 points and 15.3 rebounds while shooting 75.0 percent (27-of-36) from the field during the week to help the Sonics extend their winning streak to a season-long four games. The league honor is the first of Wilcox’s career and the first for a Sonics player this season.

Wilcox began the week by posting 26 points and a career-high 24 rebounds in a 104-87 win over Houston on April 4, becoming the first Sonics player to post a 20-point/20-rebound game since Shawn Kemp did so on Nov. 15, 1995. Wilcox’s 24 rebounds were also the most by a Sonics player since Jack Sikma grabbed 25 boards on Feb. 10, 1983. Wilcox also dished out a career-best six assists at Portland last Friday, April 7, and has recorded double-doubles in scoring and rebounding in four consecutive games.

After averaging 4.5 points and 3.6 rebounds in 48 games with the Clippers this season, Wilcox has posted 15.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game since joining the Sonics on Feb. 23.

The New York Knicks’ Jamal Crawford was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.25 steals per game. He hit two game-winning jumpers to lead the Knicks to a 3-1 record during the week. Crawford grew up in Seattle and was a prep basketball star at Rainier Beach High School

Other nominees for Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week were Cleveland’s LeBron James, Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki, New Jersey’s Jason Kidd, Orlando’s Dwight Howard, Sacramento’s Mike Bibby and Seattle’s Ray Allen.

The Seattle Sonics & Storm organization manages the Puget Sound region’s professional basketball franchises – the NBA’s Seattle SuperSonics and the WNBA’s Seattle Storm. The organization oversees all sales, marketing, finance, public relations and basketball operations for the teams. The Basketball Club of Seattle LLC owns both teams.

The lack of dominance by Elton Brand in the first three matchups this season is astounding. I mean, can anyone on Sacramento's roster really guard the guy? I doubt it. (Example #1: Chris Kaman. Example #2: Kwame Brown.)

Keep it coming, though. More shots for Cuttino and E.T. and the crew means less wins for L.A. Less wins for L.A. means more funny quotes for Ron-Ron and more smiles for the grimacy Rick Adelman.

Happy cheering/Bill Simmons spying! Let's go Kiiiiiings!

(Oh, and on the open game threads. I'm trying something different for a couple reasons: the nicknames might never have been funny five months ago when they started, so they were certainly not funny now; the categories were getting stale and I can incorporate the major points into some sort of prose introduction; and I want to keep myself posting more regularly throughout the day instead of saving every nugget for some blow-out long open game thread. I want to be more like, you know, a blog. If you have thoughts on any of this, feel free to make note in the comments. Also, use this thread to talk about the game before the tip-off, during the contest, and in the aftermath. Waiting on hold during Jason Ross's postgame? Hang up and post here instead. No one likes Jason Ross anyways.)

Go Kings.

Here is my mock draft, usually when a player does well in the tournament, their stock goes up in the draft. Teams are gonna pass on Sheldon Williams, due to poor tournament performance. He’ll be the next Elton Brand and will help that Hornets go to the playoffs next year. I put Reddick with the Jazz, looking at the Jazz's draft history they pick over hyped white dudes, who can’t play in the NBA. Hopefully the Sonics get Brandon Roy, he and Ridnouer will form the best back court in the league circa 2110. I only did college players that I have seen play and one Eurotrash dude that Espn ranked high. I guessed the teams that will end up with the highest lottery picks.

 1. Bulls from knicks- joekim Noah.  Had a good tournment, he could really develop 

2. Portland Trailblazers- Adam Morrison. Keep him local.  

3. Charlotte Bobcats-  Tyrus Thomas

4. Atlanta Hawks-Lemarcus Aldridge

5. Toronto Raptors-  Randy foye

6. Orlando Magic- Josh Mcroberts

7. Golden state- Andrea Bargani. The bay area better have ample olive oil and garlic.

8. Boston Celtics- Dee Brown

9. Timerwolves- Rodney Carney

10. Supersonics- Brandon Roy

11. Rockets- Al Hortford

12. Bulls- Ronnie Brewer

13.Utah jazz- J.J reddick. Another white person playing basketball in Utah, I don’t understand.

14 Hornets- Sheldon Williams. Every team will regret passing on him

15. 76ers- Maurice Ager

16 Indiana- Jordan Farmar.  

17. Sacramento-leon powe

Rudy Gay was going pretty high but he will end up a second rounder, due to poor performance in the tournement    

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)

We don't have SR t-shirts yet, so the prize is:

"Three days with control of the `Geoff Petrie' username.

I know you'll all be throwing each other overboard for a chance at the prize. Here's the quiz. First person to answer correctly in the comments wins.

And... go!

1 2 3 4 Total Seattle 29 31 22 14 96 Final  Sacramento 23 35 30 17 105 ss="yspscores">

PopcornMachine’s GameFlow (not yet available)

Plus/Minus
The Good: Mike Wilks +8, Damien Wilkins +5, and Robert Swift +2. The Bad: Mikki Moore -1, Noel Felix -2. The Ugly: Chris Wilcox -8, Rashard Lewis -10, Johan Petro and Ray Allen -11, and Luke Ridnour -17.

Help Value (hv=Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl-TO)
Wilcox led the team with a very strong +19 on the back of his rebounding. Ray Allen and Luke Ridnour were both +11.

Swift/Petro line of the night: 44 minutes, 20 points, 14 boards (7 offensive), 6 fouls.

Sonics: 20 assists, 17 turn overs.

Jim Jackson, on the other hand, is the prototype 2-guard.  Strong, athletic, and a tenacious competitor, Jim Jackson has stepped in admirably for every team he has graced.  I'm not swingin' on his jock mind you, when he was at Ohio State he was good but I never expected much more than a mediocre career.  But, after seeing him during his tenure Dallas go crazy and score at will on occasion while playing with Jason Kidd and Jamaal Mashburn (despite the drama) and then with Sacramento SMASH on DIRK and the entire DALLAS MAV squad without so much as a replay on ESPN, and after watching him step in in Houston and play quiet minutes very effectively, and finally in Phenix.  After watching Joe J. go down on his face and crack his mug, Jim Jackson stepped in and hit major 3's and played major "D."  What is the problem?  Why is there so much disdain for this fella in the league?  I questioned that with a friend of mine who had recently tried out for a league team and faced Jimmy.  He was as perplexed as I was.  He described Jim as strong, effective, and an awesome physical specimen who could flat out play. 

Oddly enough, Tim Thomas is none of the things that these two gentlemen are and yet they share his fate.  Jim may get another chance soon I suspect but my friend Bo... unknown.  BO, if you read this brotha, know that the fellas from the WARHAWK luv ya as much as we loved punishing you when you stepped on the floor.

Things didn't get a whole lot better last night, as the Red and Black fell to the Hornets 88-75 at the Rose Garden. Both Zach and Darius had good games, scoring 23 and 22 respectively, but no one else had much to offer. The Blazers shot a ludicrous 41.1% from the free throw line, which has to be the equivalent of closing your eyes and throwing the ball in the general direction of the basket. They also got out-rebounded 46 to 33. On the bright side, the Blazers did shoot a higher field goal percentage than the Hornets, so feel free to revel in the streets over that tidbit.

The hits keep coming tonight, as the Blazers take on newly acquired Brian Skinner's old employer, the Sacramento Kings. The line is Sacto -13.5, but the over/under I'm interested in is how many points will ex-Blazer Sergei Monia score tonight. I'm sure Bonzi can give him a few pointers regarding sticking it to your old team.