San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The much anticipated west semifinal is finally upon us!  Avery Johnson and company will make their way to the AT&T Center for the series opener tomorrow at high noon.  This matchup promises to be an extremely exciting one. 

Dallas of course comes into the second round after taking out Memphis in four straight.  The Spurs, on the other hand, had a little bit more trouble with Sacramento.  Given the regular season split of two games a piece this series could very well stretch to seven games.  There will be some key factors in this series that play into who is moving on to the next round and who is getting their fishing gear ready.  These are a couple of questions that might hold the answer as to who wins the series.

Who will set the tone in Game 1? 

Unfortunately the Spurs head into game 1 only 36 hours after playing the Kings in Sacramento.  Parker's right thigh contusion and other ailments on his right side will definitely be hurting him.   Duncan has looked solid over the the last few games and showed signs that the plantar fascilitis isn't bothering him as much as it had during the regular season.  Ginobili also looks to be back close to 100% again.  Still, the limited rest has many Spurs fans concerned.  The Spurs have played less than .500 basketball on back to backs this year.  The Mavs come in with plenty of time off, in fact maybe a little bit too much.  They haven't played a game since Monday so the key for Dallas will be how rusty they are and how quickly they can shake that off.  However, the pressure lies more squarely on San Antonio being that they must come out and protect their homecourt.  The Spurs will have to set the tone by matching Dallas' intensity on both ends of the floor to have a chance of beating the Mavs in game 1.

Whose bench will step up?

Both of these teams possess a lot of depth off the bench.  No doubt that the edge of the bench play will be pretty even on paper.  San Antonio has enjoyed solid production from Finley, Barry, and Horry thus far in the playoffs.   Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier gave Dallas a spark off the bench is the opening round, while Marquis Daniels has the ability to give the Mavs a solid contribution as well.  Pop made a change and started Robert Horry in games 5 and 6 of the first round against Sacramento, similar to switching out Ginobili with Brent Barry in the first round last year against Denver.  Nazr Mohammed or Rasho Nesterovic will probably slip back into the starting spot for the beginning of this series unless Pop feels that he would rather keep the change with Horry starting and Rasho giving energy off the bench.  Regardless, a big key for San Antonio is winning the rebounding battle, meaning Mohammed and Nesterovic will have to give Duncan as much help as possible on the glass inside.

Who will win the battle of the big men?

For Dallas on offense Dirk Nowitzki can create mismatch problems for the Spurs.  He is not a prototypical seven-footer in that hes not a low post player.  Duncan, who is not an excellent perimeter defender, will hurt the Spurs if hes sucked out of the post.  Duncan is a dominant rebounding force and he must remain inside to prevent the Mavs from crashing the offensive glass.  Its no secret that the team that wins the rebounding battle usually puts themself in a better position to win the game.  Pop, who used Bowen at times during the regular season to guard Nowitzki, will probably give him the assignment along with Robert Horry.  Keeping Duncan inside will force Nowitzki to take more jump shots and leave the Spurs a dominant rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Will the student become the teacher?

Avery Johnson will match wits with his former coach Gregg Popovich for the first time in playoff competition.  Johnson knows the Spurs better than any head coach in the league.  Using his knowledge to exploit the weaknesses of his former team will be crucial if the Mavs want to win the series.  The problem: the Spurs don't have a lot of weaknesses.  They are the most well-rounded ball club this side of Detroit.  Still, Avery has his guys playing great basketball right now and he will bring the defensive mentality that Pop instilled in him during his playing days in silver and black.   

Fans should be happy that they get an early preview of the Western Conference Finals.  San Antonio and Dallas might be the two best teams in the league.  The winner of this series is going to win the West and has a good chance of winning it all.  So get ready for some action-packed-hard-nosed-ratings-producing basketball!

HowEVA (© Stephen A. Smith)… right behind them, we have the Orlando Darkos, probably the best team of the group. They’re mathematically alive, but barely. At the moment, they’re three games out of a spot with three to play, despite their current 7-game winning streak that includes wins against maybe the best five teams in the NBA, the Spurs, Pistons, Mavericks, Suns, and Heat. The Darko trade has been great for them (no, seriously), and they’ve got a bright young line-up with Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and of course, Darko. This is probably the last time in a while that they’re not going to be in the playoffs.

Key games remaining:

Sixers @ Magic, Tonight.
Bucks @ Wizards, Tuesday.
Magic @ Pacers, Wednesday.
Bulls @ Magic, Monday.

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)

Call me crazy, but I had absolutely no desire to see four Pistons playing at once in the All Star Game.  This has nothing to do with my thoughts on whether they deserved the spot; it was simply boring.  If I wanted to watch "Pistons basketball" I would watch a DET game.  Do people really want to watch Rip running off staggered screens?  And was anyone really surprised that four Pistons plus Pierce outplayed the West?  Hell, four Raptors plus Pierce would likely beat the West, too.  Virtually any NBA team playing team basketball would beat an All-Star team featuring guys trying lobs from half court.  And yeah, I would feel the same way about four Spurs.  I know how the Spurs play.  I don't know how Manu would play with Nash, Marion, Dirk and Brand.  That's what I would want to see.

My favorite part of the latest Isiah trade isn't that the Knicks will be paying $60+ million a year (including luxury tax) for Marbury and Francis.  It's not that these two players are incompatible due to both of them being undersized for a shooting guard (not that they play much defense anyway).  Nor is it that the combination will drive the lying, sniveling Larry Brown to a premature demise.  The best part about this deal is that multiple media outlets are reporting that Isiah is stockpiling assets in order to go after Garnett in the summer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  I can see only one high-quality asset the Knicks have that MIN could possibly want.  And that's Channing Frye.  They have don't have any premium draft picks over the next two years.  Meanwhile a team like CHI could offer some combination of Deng, Gordon, Duhon, Nocioni, Hinrich and Chandler plus multiple premium first round picks.

I didn't get to watch the SA-SEA game because the NBA League Pass channel was blacked out and I didn't notice until the game was already over.  I'm beginning to see the early signs of Spurs withdrawal.

Here are my quick midseason player reviews; based on minutes of careful consideration and preseason expectations.

Coach Pop, B

Clearly trying to establish a rotation ASAP but stuck with Finley in the starting lineup way too long.  Has successfully kept Manu's minutes down but needs to do the same for Timmeh; props for loosening the reins on Parker.

Mike Budenholzer, A+

I just like saying his name.  Boo-din-hol-zer.

Sean Marks, B+

He's played well when given the opportunity and helped spawn a new catch phrase:  AND SEAN MARKS FINISHES THE JOB!!!

Beno Udrih, B

Yeah, Van Exel is a better ball-handler, but that's the end of the list in my book.

Fabricio Oberto, C+

He looks less lost every time he plays and always brings the effort.

Brent Barry, D

40.3% from the field and 33.7% from 3 isn't good enough for a guy that's getting $5 million a year to shoot the ball.

Robert Horry, NA

The regular season?  We're talking about the regular season?

Nick Van Exel, D

Why do I have the feeling that Spurs fans will blame a key playoff loss on his poor shot selection and total inability to guard anyone with legs?

Nazr Mohammed, B-

I'm seeing improvement, but he needs to up his blocks and cut down on turnovers and the ubiquitous mental errors.

Rasho Nesterovic, B

As solid as ever, but he needs to cut down on his ubiquitous lack of athleticism.

Michael Finley, D-

How bad has Finley played?  The lineup of TP/BB/MF/TD/RS has outscored its opponents by a whopping 13 points in 286 minutes.  That amounts to 2.2 points per game.  For a team with a 6.5 point differential.

The Sickness, B-

Swap Manu for Finley in the above lineup and you have a squad that has outscored its opponents  by 113 points in 335 minutes; 16.2 points per game.  Certainly not the same guy we saw in the playoffs, but, well, this isn't the playoffs.  His regular season numbers from last year are similar and his grade would be higher if not for the injuries.

Bruce Bowen, A-

He's added to his offensive game without adding FGA, but I'll be damned if he hasn't lost a quarter-step on defense.  Yeah, I said it.

Tim Duncan, B

Lowest, PPG, FG% and BPG of his career.  59% of his FGA are outside of the lane which is higher than Parker and Ginobili.  Still an incredible defensive anchor but, like last year, not capable of offensively carrying this team to a title.  His plantar fascia cost him a half-grade or so.

Tony Parker, A

Better shot selection this year and maybe the best guard finisher in the NBA (his eFG% inside is 71.1% compared to 55.3% for Wade, 52.3% for Bryant and 63.7% for LeBron).  Still has the undeniable Achilles heel to his game that will be exploited without mercy during the playoffs.