Geez! Two MVP-caliber seasons and the guy still can't get any credit! People still continue to underestimate what the guy can do on the court, and the influence that he can have on a game. I became a believer definitively last season after watching the Suns-Mavericks closing game; the guy was a one-man dynamo!!!

I'm taking a different route from that of most commentators; rather than predicting that the Suns won't be able to stop Kobe, I predict that the Lakers will not have an answer for Steve Nash. Kobe's a game-changer, to be sure, but I think his influence on a game tends to come in (big) spurts, whereas Nash has an incredibly subtle influence on the flow of the entire game.

The formula used to predict the win probability for games was borrowed from Ed Kupfer, an illustrious poster at the APBRmetric forum. Specifically in this thread, Kupfer lays out the statistical basis for the WinProb formula, which calculates the probability of a home team winning given winning percentages, location of the game and days of rest for each team.

Let's start with the Lakers, who have seven games left:

(Let's do some explaining: date, home and away should be obvious. H-Win% and A-Win% are the home and away teams' current winning percentages, respectively. H-Rest is days since the last game for the home team; A-Rest is the same for the away team. H-Prob is the calculated probability of the home team winning. T-Prob is the calculated WinProb for the team in question - in this case, the Lakers.)

After the road back-to-back this week, it's almost smooth sailing for the Lakers with their last five games coming at home.

The toughest of those five is against Phoenix, who with three days left in the season might take to resting semi-frail Steve Nash and overworked Shawn Marion. Even if the Suns play like they have all season, the Lakers still have a 48% probability of winning. The game is essentially a toss-up.

L.A.'s two road games should be losses, with the Lakers having only a 44.8% probability of winning one of them and a 4.8% likelihood of winning both.  There's a 60% likelihood the Lakers lose them both.

The most likely scenario for the five home games is sadly 4-1, with the loss coming to either the Clippers (who aren't really the away team) or the Suns.

So, couple with L.A.'s current record, that would have the Lakers ending the season at 44-38, and easily in the playoffs.

Let's move on to our eighth place Kings:

As we all know, this week is going to be tough. The likelihood of winning one of the next three is  55.9%. The likelihood of winning two is 43.2%. All three? 0.5%. Yikes. Losing all three? 53.3%. Uhh...

So the most likely scenario is to go 1-2 this week. The second most likely scenario is to go 0-3. The third is 2-1, and there is an absolutely miniscule chance to 3-0.

It looks the best bet is to pray for a split in Texas and hope the dominance of the Clippers continues.

But let's assume the worst: 0-3. The Kings close out with 4 of 5 in ARCO. Three of those home games leave the Kings with a strong probability of winning, and the other is Phoenix. The road game is Denver, always a difficult task.

So, let's imagine 3-2 in the last five - a near worst-case scenario - coupled with this week's 0-3 worst case scenario. That's finishing 3-5, and leaving the Kings with a 2005-06 regular season record of 41-41.

If the Kings can pull out either one game on the current road swing or one of the games against Denver or Phoenix, they'd sit at 42-40, still probably two games behind L.A. for the coveted seventh spot. If they manage to steal one from the Clippers and hold court against Phoenix, they'd be 43-39, still likely a game back.

But if the Lakers manage to lose on the home floor to Phoenix and the Clippers - which is very possible - while the Kings hit their likely best-case scenario, then it's gravy. The teams would tie for the seventh position, and (should the scenarios play out) the Kings would hold the tiebreaker advantage. (Since the teams split their four matchups, the next tiebreaker in conference record. If those were even, it'd go to division record. Luckily, because the Kings lost to a wealth of Eastern teams this season, they hold a sturdy advantage in both categories. Of course, had they not lost so many games against Eastern teams, they might not be in this predicament.)

So, the Kings really need to go 5-3 to have a shot at seventh place, with the Lakers going 4-3. And yes, that scenario is plausible, if hopeful. And I'm hopeful. So I'm predicting it. There. Happy?

Don't sleep on the Hornets, though:

Actually, you might be able to sleep on the Hornets. They have 10 games left, with four likely wins (hosting Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah), one toss-up (versus Cleveland) and five likely losses (at Detroit, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix and the Lakers). The Utah game will be tough, and I would guess that the Hornets could steal one at the end of the season from Phoenix or L.A. So, 5-5 seems real reasonable. (For the record, the sum of probabilities is 4.6 - that means the Hornets are expected to win 4.6 of these games. Five seems right.)

Going 5-5 would put the Hornets at 40-42. The Kings would have to go 2-6 to fall back to the Hornets at that pace, something very unlikely to happen.

But remember that worst-case scenario for the Kings up there? It was 3-5, with losses at Dallas, San Antonio, the Clippers and Denver and a home loss to Phoenix. It didn't count a home loss to the Hornets.

What if it was the Hornets instead of the Suns who beat the Kings in ARCO? Then, you'd likely have the Hornets going 6-4 and finishing 41-41. The 3-5 finish would put the Kings at 41-41. The Hornets, having taken two of three from Sacramento already, would have the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.

Damn.

So, um, like I said: Don't sleep on the Hornets. All they have to do is take care of business at home and beat the Kings in ARCO (and hope the Kings can't win in Texas or SoCal).

There's one last team in the hunt - the Utah Jazz:

It's actually pretty grim for the Jazz, who still have San Antonio twice and Dallas once. That's like three sure losses. Let's start with that. 0-3.

Utah's other road games are in Minnesota and New Orleans. We've assumed New Orleans will hold serve against Utah in Oklahoma City, but I can imagine the Jazz beating the Wolves. That's 1-4.

The other four home games for Utah (besides San Antonio's visit tonight) are Portland, Houston, Denver and Golden State. 4-0 in those isn't impossible, but it's unlikely at a 24.1% probability. 3-1 is more likely at 43.4%. So let's go with 3-1.

That makes 4-5 total, and a 39-43 record - not even sniffing the playoffs.

So the Jazz would have to beat the Hornets (40-42), sweep the non-Spurs home games (41-41) and steal one in their Dallas-San Antonio back-to-back (42-40) to pass a Kings team that finishes 3-5 (which was a worst-case scenario, not counting a Hornets loss). The Jazz, by not having a shot at the tiebreaker with the Kings, need a miracle, really.

All theoryball aside, here's what it looks like will happen (through my royal purple tinged glasses):

Bank on it! (Actually, don't.)

Since taking over as head coach after the loss at Indiana, Bob Hill has had 13 games to put his stamp on this team, and its quest to right the ship. We have seen the expected ups and downs that come with this type of transition; a 5-8 record is the most visible yardstick. But the story behind the story of wins and losses is the direction the team is headed; the tenor and chemistry of the Supersonics going forward. My estimation of the team under Bob Hill is that it is “trending upward”.

Prior to, and shortly after the change of Coach there was regular finger pointing and silent and not so silent dissent; we all read of Vladimir’s griping and constant refrain from his agent over playing time. Robert Swift and the NBA D league were mentioned in the same breath. We heard of Reggie asking for a trade, as well as Vitale; grumbling and discontent from Rick Brunson and Danny Fortson. Ray and Rashard have been telling us that they cannot do it all.

I say “trending upward” not because Seattle has won 3 out of their last 4, but because the tenor, the general direction of the team seems “hopeful”, and positive with just about half of the season to go. Winning silences most of the dissent. Therefore Seattle needs to keep on the positive side of the win loss column. This latest stretch of positive games, and the new energy and attitude on the team looks like a godsend for a team that was a ship without a rudder.

Individual performances within the framework of the team system as a whole are the framework for success. Good teams need good players; and in the NBA, most all teams have good players; but good players and good individual performances don’t necessarily put wins in the win column. The system has to be a good one that plays to the player’s strengths, and mitigates the weaknesses. Prior to the coaching change, we still had some good players (or great players) making great plays and having great games, but the wins were not forthcoming. Reggie Evans was showing some great rebounding and scoring numbers; but we were losing at an alarming rate. Ray and Rashard were both putting up All-Star numbers, but we were 13-17.

Things have been different for the Supes as of late. Seattle has put a few good games together against quality teams, even on the road. But it seems to me that our Point Guard has been infused with a new lease on life since the change. Luke has played 12 games under our new coach, and the system seems to really match his skill set. Under Hill, Luke has averaged 37 minutes, 4 Rebs, 7.1 Assists and 15.7 points. This is a great improvement over his roughly 10 pts/6 Assists numbers of last year, and most of this year. True he is playing more minutes, but he is earning them with the stellar play. Over the last 13 games (of which he has played 12), he has been matched up against some of the leagues finest point guards (we are talking about hall of fame, and MVP) in Stephon Marbury, Allan Iverson, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, Sam Cassell and Chauncey Billups. Throw in Jason Williams, Gary Payton, Mike James and Chris Duhon and you can’t find a stiff in the group. It was against these players that our “homegrown” point guard has excelled.

It would be remiss of me to not mention the maturation and the growth curve of our two young stud centers in Petro and Swifty, and how much of a key they have been; but we didn’t know what we had there. Their ability to contribute was nearly an unknown. Luke on the other hand was a starter on a playoff team last year. To see him step it up in this fashion shows how much the system needed to change to fit his strengths and weaknesses, and those of the team as a whole.

I for one like what I am seeing; so for me I would characterize the team as “trending upward”, just as Luke’s play has been.