HOOPLOG: Trevor Ariza

SIMULBLOG SONICS V. KNICKS

Sun, 08 Jan 2006 10:56:07 -0800

Sonics 55 Knicks 53 with 2:50 left in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics are 7of 11 from 3
Nate the great is on fire – 8 straight points for the Knicks
Vlady commits back to back terrible turnovers and then doesn’t grab a rebound and gives the Knicks another two points. He has the jumper going today, but he is making it tough on Coach Hill to keep him on the floor.
Once again the Sonics struggled with Ray off the floor.

Sonics 44 Knikcs 39 with 6:54 left in the 2nd Quarter
Petro gets his 3rd foul – he really is having a tough time today.
On the other hand, Swift is playing very well
Sonics lead by as many as 10
Reminder – Allen and Marbury were traded for each other on draft day
The Knicks have brought in Trevor Ariza to guard Ray Allen who is on fire

Sonics 35 Knicks 25 at the end of 1 Quarter
Great offensive quarter from the Sonics
Swift and Collison are setting very good picks.
Jerome James has quickly reminded me of why he drove us batty. Does I. Thomas actually watch the NBA or have anyone who watches the NBA before he signs players?

Sonics 26 Knicks 21 with 2:33 left in the 1st Quarter
Robert Swift is holding his own in the post.
He hit a really nice 9 foot turnaround jumper. He shot the same shot the other night and in the simulblog I mentioned how nice it looked. It really could be a dynamite move.
Jerome James is in the game to guard Swift.
Sonics are hitting the three’s – 4 in the Q

Sonics 19 Knicks 14 with 5:46 left in the 1st Quarter
Not a lot of stops in the early going. Knicks have scored on 7 of the first 8 possessions and the Sonics have scored on 7 of their first 8.
Eddy Curry is crushing Johan Petro. Curry has beat him deep in the block and they have crushed the Sonics on the high pick n roll
Swift replaces Petro at the 7:00 who committed two fouls.
Sonics are without Danny Fortson and Vitaly Potapenko

Weiss v. Hill
• Effective Field Goal % defense, which weights 3 pts shots, has gone from 30th in the league at 54.2 to 2nd in the league at 45.9 almost a 10% difference.
• Offensive rebounding has disappeared from 32.7 % 3rd in the NBA to 26.4% of offensive rebounds
• Sonics aren’t shooting under Hill, their effective field goal % is 44.3 which would be last in the NBA
• Under Hill Sonics defense has been entirely making the other team miss, they are not rebounding and not forcing turns

I Don’t ♥ NY

Thu, 10 Nov 2005 09:56:28 -0800

Lots of storylines in tonight’s game. There's the obvious cousin vs. cousin match-up between Telfair and Marbury, but also the match-up of ex-Georgia Tech point guards in a Jack vs. Marbury showdown. Who will emerge as the Queen Bee? Hopefully this kind of intrigue will keep our young Blazer guards amped for the whole game. Then again, if Marbury don't start playing the Larry Brown way, we may see a lot more of...well, NY doesn't really have another PG, so we'll probably just see a lot of Marbury. Of course, Clifford Robinson's lovechild Nate Robinson will be making his first appearance at the Rose Garden, followed by a round of hormone therapy at OHSU. For Blazer/Duck fans out there, this game has even more intrigue, as Robinson, Channing Frye, Trevor Ariza, and Matt Barnes all played their college ball in the Pac-10. Any way you chop it up, this one should be good. A victory tonight will go a long way toward giving this young team some confidence. The spread is currently at NY -1.5, so go out and put some money on the Blazers.

Some things I hope to see:

More of the Russian Mafia. Vik had a little quote in the Oregonian today questioning why he hasn't been on the active roster. I have to say, if it's for any other reason than Nash wanting to showcase Patterson, then I'm dumbfounded. More PneuMonia, more Viktor more glasnost.
Tefair playing well. Last time Seabass went up against Big Cousin, he forced everything. Sebastian needs to play smart and not try to one-up Marbury, or he's going to be holding Jarrett's water bottle in the 4th quarter.
Juan Dixon needs to fight the urge to hoist up a 3 every time he touches the ball. Please Juan, don't shoot.
Zach, Darius, and Joel with double-doubles.

I got a good feeling about this one. I think Monia and Zach have big nights and the Blazers win. Here's to sending Larry Brown and the rest of the Knicks back to the hotel 0-4, cause everyone knows L.B. is a sick honkey straight goin' donkey.

Brrr…. Is There a Draft in Here? (Episode II: The Frontcourt)

Fri, 27 May 2005 10:54:14 -0800

[If you missed Episode I click here.

David Crockett is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of South Carolina, and can be reached at dcrockett17@yahoo.com.]

I the previous Episode I identified the backcourt as the team's highest priority heading into the off-season. Whether through the draft, a sign-and-trade, or with the mid-level salary slot the Knicks must find a way to improve their perimeter defense as well as shave Marbury's and Crawford's minutes. To that end, let's take a look at the frontcourt. First up: the big guys.

The Knicks ended the season with perhaps the highest percentage of power forwards on any roster in the league. Consider that the team started essentially two power forwards, Kurt Thomas and Mike Sweetney. Herb Williams also played Jerome Williams at both forward positions regularly. Isiah then traded for Malik Rose and Mo Taylor, placing Tim Thomas a mere heartbeat away from 4th string power forward.

The team's ostensible center, Mike Sweetney, put together a solid (at best) campaign, especially considering that he played out of position. It was the kind of season that probably didn't change many minds among his supporters or detractors. On offense, his PER (from 82games) at center was a very nice 18.8. As always, he shot a solid efg (53.5%), rebounded well (13.5 per 48), and got to the free throw line (7.9 per 48). However he struggled on the defensive end, giving up an opponent's PER of 17.7. Though he managed to outshoot and out-rebound opposing centers per 48 minutes he also slightly out-fouled them (7 per 48), which meant that much of his potential offensive productivity went unrealized as he sat on the bench. That he struggled with fouls and offered essentially no shot-blocking against opposing centers is not necessarily surprising. He played virtually every game at a significant height disadvantage. Even conceding this, I still maintain that "Sweets," as he is commonly known, would do well to lay off the sugary treats and slim down. He may be a bit young to remember that once upon a one time "The Thing that Ate" Ollie Miller was more than a punch line for a would-be sports writer.

Miller was an even better version of Sweetney, a rising young player with promise, fresh off the toughest Finals series the Jordan-led Bulls ever played. But basketball is an unforgiving profession on tendons and joints, even for the most finely tuned bodies. So ultimately Miller's inability to keep off the extra 35-40 pounds made him less effective on the floor, kept him on the injured list with an endless assortment of ankle and knee ailments, and eventually forced him from the league. His problems were exacerbated - if not caused outright - by his obesity; and I won't even get into the John "Hot Plate" Williams cautionary tale. (Note: "Hot Plate" is mentioned in this Washington Times column by Tom Knott on the end of the Bullets/Wizards futility. I defy you to read the article and NOT laugh out loud. It's hysterical.)

Interestingly, backup center Mo Taylor is this season's biggest defensive surprise. Ignoring for the moment that his acquisition is Isiah's least defensible roster move to date, Taylor was a genuine surprise. After expecting to see Marburyesque indifference I recall watching games this season and being genuinely stunned at Taylor's defensive effort. The numbers appear to bare it out. On offense Taylor was pretty much what I'd come to expect: an accomplished (though streaky) scorer and a turnover machine. His PER of only 13.1 at center was a tad lower than I'd expected but not altogether shocking. I would expect that with a full training camp we'd see Taylor move into the 14-15 range. The big stunner was on defense where Taylor held opposing centers to a fantastic 14.3 PER. Obviously the Knicks would love to see this kind of defensive production off the bench. Even should Taylor regress a bit on defense an opponent's PER just around league average would be tremendous production from the backup center over a full season.

At power forward, Kurt Thomas is limited in what he can contribute on offense as a spot-up jump shooter and rebounder. Though his PER at power forward is below league average (14.4) he remains a decent shooter from field (46% efg), and superb in the 15-20 foot area off the screen-roll. He also still rebounds quite well (13.7 per 48). On defense he's pretty awful, allowing opposing power forwards a 19.1 PER. Among the backup forwards perhaps the biggest surprise is Malik Rose. His defense, which is his calling card, was generally quite good (13.7 opponents PER). His aw-fense was awful. His PER of 9.7 is the unsightly fate of undersized power forwards with limited perimeter skills; they rarely age gracefully. But, such is the price of the additional first round pick. He better be good, whoever he is because watching Rose jack up shots has been painful. I knew that it seemed like he shot the ball an awful lot to me but when I went to 82games.com I was dumbfounded. For all the talk of his selfless professionalism no one mentioned that this guy is a bona fide ball hog. Rose took almost 13 shots per 48 minutes at power forward, hitting at an abysmal 40% efg. Sweetney and Thomas both took just under 15 and JYD took only 10.3 shots per 48. These players all shot over 50% efg.

Wherever it comes from the Knicks most certainly need better overall play from the frontcourt. I compared Sweetney's and Thomas' PER and opponent's PER with center/power forward tandems from the league's five most efficient defensives. (I also included the same comparison for backcourt players - just for kicks and giggles.)

Name	Pos.	PER	Opp. PER
Sweetney, M (NY)	C	18.8	17.7
Thomas, K (NY)	PF	14.4	19.1
NBA Top 5 Teams in Defensive Efficiency
Duncan, T. (SA)	C	28.6	13.8
Muhammed, N. (SA)	PF	6.8	15.8
Nesterovic, R. (SA)	C	13.1	13.2
Curry, E. (Chi)	C	17.4	13.3
Davis, A. (Chi)	PF	13.1	14.6
Chandler, T (Chi)	C	19.1	12.8
Wallace, B. (Det)	C	18.7	15.8
Wallace, R. (Det)	PF	17.7	15.3
Ming, Y. (Hou)	C	24.9	14.6
Howard, J. (Hou)	PF	13.9	16.9
Wright, L. (Mem)	C	15.4	16
Gasol, P. (Mem)	PF	25.7	17

Name (Team)	Pos.	PER	Opp. PER
Marbury, S. (NY)	PG	23.3	16.4
Crawford, J. (NY)	SG	16.8	18.2
NBA Top 5 Teams in Defensive Efficiency
Parker, T. (SA)	PG	19.6	13
Ginobili, M. (SA)	SG	22.7	10.8
Duhon, C. (Chi)	PG	10.8	15.2
Hinrich, K. (Chi)	SG	17.6	13.8
Billups, C. (Det)	PG	20.4	12.9
Hamilton, R. (Det)	SG	17.5	13.8
Sura, R. (Hou)	PG	16.1	17.3
Wesley, D. (Hou)	SG	12.4	15.7
Williams, J. (Mem)	PG	16.7	16.2
Battier, S. (Mem)	SG	18.3	14.1

* Non-starter

Although this comparison hardly qualifies as scientific it aptly illustrates how far the Knicks are behind the best defensive teams. Nonetheless, there is hope that at least Sweetney can lower his opponent's PER into the 15.5-16.5 range next season. Entering his third season he should begin to catch an occasional break from the zebras on the "nickel-dime" type fouls that put him on the bench with regularity. Hopefully, his summer will be spent working on his conditioning so he will be less prone to such fouls. More importantly, the Knicks must make the commitment to put him at his natural power forward spot and keep him there. This of course means the team must acquire or develop a center.

Should the Knicks look to the draft to address the frontcourt presumably they'll be in the market for a player who can log many if not most of his minutes at center, preferably providing some shot blocking. Given the paucity of quality true centers available in the draft in the table I combine centers with power forwards who play both positions. I leave out high school and international players as well as true power forwards that would have a difficult time helping the team immediately (e.g., Sean May, Ike Diogu, Wayne Simien).

Centers/Power Forwards

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Andrew Bogut, Utah	Top five	Bogut is a consensus top 5 pick. He is a good – not great – athlete who can control a game with his skill and passing, particularly for a team who could play him in the high post. I hope he likes Atlanta.
Chris Taft, Pittsburgh	Anywhere from #8 to #15, based on workouts/interviews	The size and willingness to use it are all what you’re looking for in a big 6’10” pf/c, yet he has never dominated. People keep waiting for the light to come on. The interviews may be as important to this kid as any in the draft, including the high schoolers. It’s unlikely he falls far out of the top 10, if at all. If the Knicks remain at #8 this will likely be the guy slotted to them.
Charlie Villanueva, UConn	Anywhere from #8 to #20	There is much to like about Villanueva. He runs the floor well. He shoots a high percentage. He rebounds and blocks shots. Unfortunately, he also likes to play like a small forward at times even though he is 6’11”. Does he want to play center?
Channing Frye, Arizona	Anywhere from #15 to late first round	Disclaimer: I’m an Arizona grad. Channing Frye may be the Shane Battier/Josh Howard of this draft. He doesn’t have superstar potential but he also doesn’t have a lot of holes in his game. He should be a very good pro PF/C for a lot of years. It would be highway robbery if the Knicks pick him up at the end of the first round. More likely they’d have to move into the 16-20 area.
Randolph Morris, Kentucky	Anywhere from #15 to mid-second round	I know the league is starved for big players but if this kid doesn’t pull out and go back to Kentucky for at least one more season something is dreadfully wrong with the NBA. I can understand over-estimating the potential of high schoolers but this kid staying on the floor at Kentucky and he was basically the only center in the entire SEC.
Jared Homan, Iowa State	Second round	If you’re looking for a backup center that ONLY rebounds and blocks shots in the second round he’s your guy.

Adding to the depth at this position are some talented international players: Johan Petro from France, Fran Vasquez from Spain, and Tiago Splitter from Brazil, as well as two schoolboy 7-footers Andrew Bynum and Andray Blatche. Although no David Robinsons or Tim Duncans populate this draft, some pretty serviceable centers are available. Most - after Bogut - will likely go off the board in the 8-20 range. If the Knicks remain at #8 in the draft lottery they could conceivably move down and still get a pretty decent player.

Small Forward
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Looking at New York's roster today, small forward does not appear to be a position of need. Of course, things change in the off-season. The Orlando Sentinel is reporting that Penny Hardaway is pushing for a buyout in order to re-sign with the Magic. Tim Thomas is also entering the final year of his deal. So those two contracts may indeed be moved this off-season. If they are, Trevor Ariza may be the incumbent at small forward unless Allan Houston can come back. Consequently, the Knicks cannot afford to ignore the swingmen in the upcoming draft. I've included swing players, who play in the backcourt, as well as 'tweener types that play up front but handle the ball.

Of the small forwards I see the Knicks as most interested in a swingman than a power-three. Should the Knicks wind up in the top 3 certainly Williams would have to be one of the names they'd consider, along with Bogut and Paul. Should the Knicks remain at #8, irrespective of who is on the board the team should strongly consider Granger. He's a do it all swing player. He could play in the backcourt, with Ariza at the small forward, and all of a sudden the Knicks could be looking at cutting off much of the penetration that plagues the defense.

Name/College	Availability?	Comment
Marvin Williams, UNCC	Top 3-4 pick	Honestly, I didn’t see him play enough to do anything but parrot what everyone else is saying. “This kid is the greatest thing since snowshoes. He’s much better than Cats. I’d go see him again and again.” They must know what they’re talking about, right?
Danny Granger, New Mexico	Late lottery to end of first round	I doubt Granger lasts until the end of the first. I think he’s the best “true” small forward available but that tends to be the deepest pro position. His points per shot each year at New Mexico: 1.29, 1.41, 1.55, 1.62. His rebounds: 7.1, 7.9, 9, 8.9. He hurt himself with an awful game in the NCAA though.
Joey Graham, Oklahoma State	first round	The athletic comparisons to Corey Maggette I have yet to see. Like Maggette he’s going to have to move his game outside to play his pro position. Coming out of OSU, he’s not surprisingly a good defender.
Ryan Gomes, Providence	Late first/Early second	Gomes re-made himself from a post-up only player into a “power” 3, with a lot more skill than Graham. He dramatically improved his ball-handling and his perimeter shot.
Linas Kleiza, Missouri	d/undrafted	Kleiza is quality rebounder with a decent offensive repertoire. He probably lacks the quickness to defend SF’s in the NBA. He may go to Europe.

Small is the New Big

Wed, 23 Feb 2005 14:35:52 -0800

The Suns were the trendsetters. The Warriors followed suit. And now it looks like the Hawks are the latest. (You could even argue that by playing P.J. Brown at center when Jamaal Magloire went out, the Hornets were the second team to do it.) Yes, we soon might have a small ball craze sweeping the NBA, and I for one, couldn t be happier. Who needs lumbering 7 footers clogging up the lane and doing nothing for fantasy owners? There are very few teams that offer five legit fantasy starters, but if this small ball craze takes hold, we might see more of it. All five Suns are obviously starters and they are all studs. If the lowly Warriors go with a Speedy Claxton/Derek Fisher/Jason Richardson/Mike Dunleavy/Troy Murphy lineup when Troy gets back, all five of them could be well worth using. And even the Hawks, who make the Warriors look like well, last year s Warriors might have close to give fantasy relevant players if they stay small. Antoine Walker and Al Harrington were obviously usable to begin with, and you know my feelings on dunking/blocking machine Josh Smith . But if small ball means Josh Childress keeps getting PT and gets a chance to work on his well-rounded (at least for fantasy purposes) game, all the better. So who are some other teams that might benefit from going small ball?

Dallas Mavericks
It wouldn t have made sense a week ago, but now that Erick Dampier s out, do the Mavs really want to run Alan Henderson out there? Don t they just want to try and put up 120 points a game and see if their opponents can match them? It s too bad that Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels are both banged up right now, because it would have been very tempting to give the idea a go with their full squad. Even so, a lineup of Devin Harris/Jason Terry/Michael Finley/Josh Howard/Dirk Nowitzki would score a whole lot of points. If Shawn Marion (6 7 , 228) can play the 4, why not Howard (6 7 , 210)?

New York Knicks
The Nazr Mohammed era is over. It was fun while it lasted (wasn t it?), but, just like Mark Blount realized he was Mark Blount this year, Nazr realized he was Nazr. The Knicks have little reason to keep running him out there as long as he s ineffective an injured. I d love to see them go with a Stephon Marbury/Jamal Crawford/Trevor Ariza/Mike Sweetney/Kurt Thomas lineup, which isn t really that bad in terms of size, as that frontline goes 6 8 , 6 8 , 6 9 . Tim Thomas, Penny Hardaway and Jerome Williams could work well in this scheme as reserves. What do the Knicks have to lose by doing this? They re already as low as they re going to get in the standings, why not try and do something fun?

Milwaukee Bucks
Both Dan Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia have shown flashes, but both are terribly inconsistent. Toni Kukoc may be old, but he s shown lately that he can still play if given the chance. How about running out a lineup of Mo Williams (although you know who I d have in there)/Michael Redd/Desmond Mason/Keith Van Horn/Toni Kukoc? In Williams and Kukoc you have two great passers, in Redd and Van Horn you have two great shooters, and Mason is the athlete of the bunch. That s a team that could score some points, and could bring Mike James off the bench along with some muscle (relatively speaking) in the form of Joe Smith and Gadzuric.

San Antonio Spurs
These are Rasho Nesterovic s January numbers: 4.5/7.7/0.6 with 1.7 blocks, 43% shooting in 24.8 minutes. That s ugly. Sure, the rebounds and blocks aren t bad, but otherwise Rasho s making Mark Blount look like last year s Mark Blount. Brent Barry is a deceptively tall 6 7 , while Manu Ginobili is no slouch himself at 6 6 . Fantasy players who know what Barry can offer would love to see a situation where he s out there with Manu and Tony Parker. If they played those three with Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen it would be an especially small lineup, with Duncan the only one over 6 7 . And it s unlikely that the NBA s best team will tinker with what has been working so well so far. But fantasy players can always hope.

Jerome Williams Starting SF?

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 14:32:47 -0800

According to my stat page, the Knicks have the 6th worst defense in the league. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has followed them this year, as they have failed to stop teams from scoring night after night. Even in yesterday's 113-105 victory over the Blazers, Portland shot a blistering 60% (eFG). New York won not by a good defensive effort, but by outshooting them (61% eFG) and having a big edge from the free throw line (27 to 14). If the Knicks are going to compete with a lousy defense they're going to need an offensive explosion every night, something their 14th ranked offense can't manage regularly. However maybe instead of hoping for more offense, the Knicks should concentrate on improving their defense.

Last night Jerome Williams started his first game of the year. It wasn't due to Lenny Wilkens making a rash change because of the Knicks' embarrassment on national television the day before. The Junk Yard Dog was in the opening lineup because Tim Thomas couldn't suit up due to injury. Hopefully the change will be permanent.

Starting Jerome Williams makes so much sense. In a team concept he fits in better with the first squad. While no one will confuse Williams with Bruce Bowens, he'd easily be the Knicks best defender of their starting 5. The Junk Yard Dog likes to hound his opponents and averages more steals per minute than any of the Knicks starters (and gets twice as many as Tim Thomas). From an offensive standpoint, while his game is unorthodox, he's rather efficient in what he does. Take a look at the per-40 minute averages of the two players:

NAME	PTS	eFG	PSA	FGA	FTA	OREB	TO	AST

TT	15.6	45.2	0.99	14.4	3.1	0.8	2.6	1.6

JYD	12.6	52.6	1.18	8.3	5.5	3.5	2.5	1.6

While Jerome doesn't score as many points as Tim Thomas, he also doesn't miss as many shots, and he gets a ton more offensive rebounds. With a PF that likes to play on the outside (Kurt Thomas), the Knicks could use some extra rebounding, something Tim Thomas does very poorly. The thing that shocked me the most is that both players turn the ball over at the same rate. Visually I would have expected for the awkward Williams to have a higher turnover rate, but it's just not true.

Let me ask a question. With Trevor Ariza still developing his jumpshot, Moochie Norris building his NYC house brick by brick, and Sweetney manning the low post, who would better complement the Knicks' second tier, Tim Thomas or Williams? I'd say Thomas in a heartbeat. The reserves don't need Williams style of play, because they already have an all around energy guy in Ariza. Trevor's strong rebounding at SF would offset Thomas' hyelophobia. Even though Tim-may is having an off-year with his shot, his jumper would be the best of the Knicks' reserves.

Barring injury, Lenny Wilkens has yet to change any of his starters. With the Knicks performance considered average at best, he's gotten a lot of pressure to shake things up. However which starter could Wilkens bench? Marbury and Houston are out of the question. Nazr is having a career year. And Kurt Thomas is immensely popular despite declining production. Tim Thomas started off the year horribly, and has been labeled "soft." Benching him in favor of Jerome Williams would be the safest and most popular move he could make. It just makes sense on every level.

Way Too Early Season Review Part II

Wed, 01 Dec 2004 09:10:59 -0800

If you haven't read Part I already, then you might want to do so now.

The main reason the Knicks can afford losing Kurt Thomas is because Mike Sweetney (18.1, 17.1, -6.2) is ready to play PF full time. I'm not the only one who feels this way. Back in June, supersonics.com writer Kevin Pelton said the best age-21 comparisons for Sweetney are Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer. While Basketball Forecast author John Hollinger thinks the former Hoya is ready to break out and become a 14-12 guy. Sweetney has two major strengths: he can score efficiently, and he can rebound. He's hitting 55% of his shots, and he leads the Knicks in points per shot attempt:

Player's Name	 PSA 

M. Sweetney....	 1.26 

J. Williams....	 1.25 

Stephon Marbury	 1.20 

N. Mohammed....	 1.14 

J. Crawford....	 1.03 

Kurt Thomas....	 1.00 

A. Hardaway....	 0.96 

Trevor Ariza...	 0.88 

Tim  Thomas....	 0.83 

Vin Baker......	 0.46 

Moochie Norris.	 0.44 

Jamison Brewer.	 0.41

(Jerome Williams' PSA is that high because he only shoots when he's 3 feet from the hoop with a clear path.)

In addition to being a good scorer, Sweetney had the highest rebound rate on the team last year. Isiah may not clear the way for him to start this year for numerous reasons. With the Knicks on a quest to win the Atlantic, they might not want to trust the PF position to a second year player, Zeke might not be able to peddle Kurt for something the Knicks need, or they're keeping Thomas as insurance for the center position, because the backup is gulp Vin Baker (12, 20, -1.2 last year).

The most surprising Knick up to this point is Nazr Mohammed (21.5, 17.0, +14.2). Upon seeing his numbers I thought the improvement was because he cut down on his personal fouls, but his rate hasn't changed over the last few years. The major improvements I've found are in his shooting percentage (52.7%) and offensive rebounding (6.1/40min). FG% is the stat that fluctuates the most from year to year, but this year's improvement shouldn't be a fluke considering he shot 56% after being traded to New York last year. What might drop Nazr back to earth is his offensive rebounding. His highest rate in a full season is 4.5OREB/40mins back in 2001, and he's a point and a half ahead of that.

In fact I think Nazr's improvment in shooting percentage is directly related to his offensive rebounding. Last year in Atlanta, Nazr had a lower rebounding percentage, only 49% of his shots were inside, and 63% of them were assisted. Whereas in New York, his numbers are 60% and 54% respectively. Simply put, since coming to the Knicks about 10% of his shots are now unassisted and in the paint. It sounds like he's earning those by cleaning up on the glass.

Another thing I like about Nazr is his combination of good hands and ability to finish. Mohammed usually converts on a Marbury drive & pass in the paint. Mohammed's downfall is his weak defense, especially at the critical center position. He doesn't bail out the other Knick defenders with blocked shots, something the Knicks could use thanks to their all around poor defense.

I think the whole city of New York has watched every step of Tim Thomas on the court (4.0, 14.9, -8.3), and it's safe to say that I don't need to do a full review on him. If his problem was mental & he's back to normal, I think we can give him a Mulligan on the first month of the season. If he doesn't regain his form, he'll be replaced in the lineup before long. His defense looks like it's improved slightly, down from the 16.4 oPER from last year.

The Knicks best defensive position is SF (13.8 oPER). While Thomas has improved, it's the other three guys that can take a lion's share of the credit. Jerome Williams (18.7, 15.8, +11.9), Trevor Ariza (13.2, 13.4, -1.3), and occasionally Penny Hardaway (10.5, 11.7, +3) are all fine defenders in their own right. Unfortunately the revival of Tim Thomas spells less time for the two most energetic Knicks, Williams and Ariza. Early on in the season Ariza was getting good court time, but these days it's likely that he'll play less than 10 minutes. The recipient of Ariza's decline in minutes is Jerome Williams who has worked his way out of the dog house (pun intended). The SF situation is the same as it was last Monday when I said:

New York has a real logjam. There doesn't seem to be a clear solution in sight. Thomas and Hardaway are nearly untradeable due to their large contracts, while trading Ariza would be insane due to his potential. I'd hate to see Jerome Williams go, because his game is uniquely different from anyone else's on the team. So maybe everyone stays until the summer, when Hardaway and Thomas become more attractive as $30M in expiring contracts.

If it seems that the Knicks have too many forwards, they might have a similar problem with the guards once Allan Houston becomes healthy. How Lenny Wilkens handles this should be interesting. Houston will initially come off the bench, but if he's back to his true form, who plays the two guard spots in the fourth quarter between Starbury, Crawford and Houston? The guard quandary is more difficult to solve than the PF or SF one. Guys like Ariza, Sweetney and "JYD" can handle being benched due to their circumstances, but how do you tell the 3 Knicks accustom to taking last second shots that one has to sit?

Wilkens giving Ariza few minutes isn't much to get upset about. Trevor is young and inexperienced, and there is a lot of depth at SF. But Lenny needs find more time for Sweetney. Although he's averaging 17 minutes a game, his time has dwindled so much that against Toronto he played a total of 17 minutes in 2 games. There are times that Jerome Williams' infectious style and hustle are what the Knicks will require, but for a majority of the time Sweetney should be the first big man off the bench.

Generally Wilkens gets a good grade in my book. Other than Sweetney's playing time, I have a hard time finding anything else largely disagreeable. This year the Knicks have a fair amount of depth, and Wilkens has to walk a tight line between winning now, developing their young talent, and keeping everyone happy.

As I write this, the Knicks just slipped back over .500 with an OT win over the Hawks. Writing this took a life on it's own, because the Knicks have so many interesting topics to hit on. This year we have developing youngsters, players battling for time, Allan Houston's return, a division race, and the speculation that Isiah Thomas can rearrange the team at a moment's notice. Watching tonight's game made me realize that only a short time ago, the Knicks were more like the Hawks, a team just looking forward to the next draft.

Tim Thomas :(

Sun, 28 Nov 2004 20:52:26 -0800

"Nov 23 Thomas scored nine points on 1-of-9 shooting in 22 minutes Tuesday night in the Knicks' 104-88 victory over Atlanta.

Recommendation: Thomas' season continues to spiral and it can only be a matter of time before his role changes for the negative. The speculation in New York is that Allan Houston (knee), who may begin scrimmaging later this week, will start at small forward when healthy."

That's from Rotowire via Yahoo Sports... Not looking good for double T. He's still playing slightly better than Trevor Ariza, but mostly because he's getting more minutes. Could this be the end of the line for the Timinator?

Knicks 93 Houston 92

Sun, 28 Nov 2004 20:48:27 -0800

How did the Knicks win last night? The easy answer was a heave-ho off the glass from what seemed like 40 feet. What Jamal Crawford described after the game as the biggest shot of his career, gave the Knicks their first road win of the 2005 season. New York didn't look good early on. A 7 point Houston lead at the half grew to 11 points by the start the 4th quarter. However the Knicks came storming back with a 3-point barrage. Actually Penny Hardaway and Jamal Crawford combined for all 7 of New York's treys. All of Penny's came in the 4th quarter, and Crawford's last trey gave the Knicks a 1 point edge as time expired.

The four factors tell an interesting story of the game that was highly entertaining to watch (for a Knicks fan anyway). Again New York failed to keep their opponent at a bay with regards to shooting percentage. The Rockets eFG% of 48.8% meant that the Knicks still haven't forced a competitor under the league average (47.1%). On the positive side, it was their second best effort since they held the Clippers to 48.6% in their 110-96 victory at the Garden. The Rockets came into the game as the third best team in the league at defensive shooting percentage (43.6%), and Houston kept the Knicks to 44.3%. This meant the Rockets had the shooting percentage advantage in this game, and so far this year, New York has lost every single game when their opponents held this edge.

Two of the factors were very close, although slightly in the Knicks' favor. Turnovers were kept remarkably low, as both teams combined for only 15, which is usually what the Knicks average on their own. New York also had a small advantage at the free throw line as well. The Knicks hit 16 free throws to the Rockets 12, a 4 point advantage.

What kept the Knicks in the game out was their superior rebounding. They snared 14 offensive boards, while keeping the Rockets to only 8. In fact, Nazr Mohammed pulled in 8 New York misses on his own. Kurt Thomas had a great game scoring 23 points, but he also had 14 total rebounds, 11 on the defensive end.

Beyond the four factors, there's a lot to report on this game. You would have thought Van Gundy coached the Knicks, as four of their starters played 40 minutes or more. By the second half it was pretty much a 7 man playoff-style rotation. Anyone else think Lenny is feeling pressure to win games? Shockingly Nazr Mohammed was credited with 45 minutes. He's usually on the bench because he hacks more than a 2600 conference. Nazr not only kept himself to 3 fouls, but he played Yao fantastically on defense. One of Mohammed's fouls came on a block of Ming, that from the replay looked clean to me.

Tim Thomas only played 12 minutes, and you have to wonder how much longer he'll be the starting SF. No I really mean it this time. His confidence is non-existent at this point. Even though he looked for his shot early, he couldn't get his offense going and ended up with 2 points on 5 attempts. Ariza and Hardaway played the rest of the game at SF, and combined for 17 points in 44 minutes. I mentioned earlier that Penny scored primarily from beyond the arc. Ariza was just as effective without the long range shot. He had a traditional three pointer, and had 5 free throw attempts in just 20 minutes. This is one aspect of his game I really love, getting to the foul line. Although he does give it back, and had 3 fouls of his own. When he matures if he can reduce the number of fouls he commits, getting to the line will give his team a serious advantage.

Defense is still an issue, and Marbury seemed to put in a better effort tonight (as did most of the team, especially the Knicks' big men). Charlie Ward put up a big goose egg for the Rockets, but on the other hand their diminutive PG Tyronn Lue scored 15. Most of the damage was done by the Rockets' unstoppables McGrady and Yao. This is a defensive effort I could better stomach, as they gave the appearance of actually trying.

Kurt's big game (23pts, 55% eFG, 14 REB) meant little time for Michael Sweetney. The big man from Georgetown did play some D against Yao Ming, but had little effect in his 10 minutes. The rumors about Sweetney being available as trade bait for other teams scare me, especially when his playing time dwindles like this. Two games ago he played 32 minutes, but he just doesn't get large amounts of minutes on a regular basis. The situation is out of Sweetney's control, as the Knicks will play Kurt and Nazr as long as they are effective. How bad is it when I'm dreaming of a Nellie-esque lineup that sends Tim Thomas to the bench, so the Knicks can start all 3 of their big men? This wouldn't be the first time the Knicks put a PF in at SF, and at least in this incarnation the Knicks can drop back into a legal zone.

In the near future I would imagine Tim Thomas will be sent to the bench, and the Knicks try out figure what combination of Trevor Ariza, Penny Hardaway and the forgotten man Jerome Williams works at SF. I'm sure at first Wilkens might try to use Thomas a 6th man, to help him regain his composure, but right now I can't predict anything positive for Tim. Isiah said that Sweetney would not be traded, and given the choice to believe an NBA trade rumor or the Knicks GM, I'll stick with Zeke on this one. Sweetney will get whatever minutes trickle down from Thomas & Nazr. Some nights he'll give us flashes of what's to come, others he'll be the fogotten man like last night.

For the time being the Knicks will live with their jump shooters. When Crawford and Marbury and Penny and Kurt are hitting iron, the Knicks offense will self-destruct like it did against the Spurs. However when those same shots are finding net, the Knicks will find themselves with happier endings like last night's win against Houston.